China is reportedly considering relaxing its one-child policy next year by allowing couples in some provinces to have a second child if one parent is an only child. The one-child policy was introduced in the 1980s to limit population growth but it is deeply unpopular and favors the rich. Experts say the policy is no longer sustainable given China's aging population and shrinking workforce. Continued preference for sons over daughters has also skewed China's gender ratio with 120 baby boys born for every 100 girls.

1. China set to relax one-child policy
Updated September 13, 2010 11:33:39
After 30 years China is reportedly considering relaxing it's one child policy.
From next year, five provinces will consider allowing couples have a second child,
providing at least one parent is a only child themself. The one child policy was
introduced to limit population growth in Communist China, but it has applied mainly to
Han Chinese in urban areas. People from rural communities or ethnic minorities are
exempt. Nonetheless, this move is a significant one in a country where abortion and
infanticide is reportedly widespread among families who want their only child to be a
son.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Studies at the University of
Pennsylvania
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LAM: At the moment, we're relying on reports that the one child policy might be relaxed.
What's your reading of the situation? How likely are the authorities to relax China's one
child policy?
WALDRON: Well, I think it would be a very very popular measure. I think there is a lot of
pressure to do it, but on the other hand, the population control bureaucracy is very
deeply entrenched. But I am inclined to think that by the time you have this level of
rumour and leakage, that there has got to be something to this or that there is probably
something to it.
LAM: As you say, the Family Planning bureaucracy is deeply entrenched, but do they
wield much political influence in Beijing?
WALDRON: Well, according to one of the reports that I have been reading, how you
perform on family planning is the single most important criterium for a rural official,
whether you meet your quotas, or the number of births don't exceed.
LAM: If the reports are accurate, why do you think the Mandarins and indeed, the
political leadership in Beijing, why do you think they are considering reversing the policy
now at this point in time?
WALDRON: Well first, I think it is deeply unpopular. Second, I think that in the last 30
years Chinese people of all levels, and the society has become accustomed to more
personal autonomy and less interference from the government in personal decisions.
And they're therefore are more resentful and more sensible of the fact that this could be
changed than they might have been say 20 or 30 years ago. And third, for the wealthy,
of whom there is a substantial number in China. This is a dead letter. You can just pay

2. the fine and have your baby or as is increasingly common, fly to Hong Kong, have your
baby there or fly to the United States and have your baby there and get a citizenship for
the baby into the bargain. So this is a policy whose time has passed.
LAM: And it also seems to me a policy that favours the rich and not the poor?
WALDRON: Well, it's deeply oppressive of the poor and it doesn't touch the rich,
because they can simply use their money to bypass it.
LAM: Indeed, what about this so-called gender imbalance? Do Han Chinese still broadly
favour sons over daughters?
WALDRON: Oh absolutely. Now that we have the ability to determine the sex of an
unborn baby, the abortion rates for unborn girls are extraordinary. It's not just the case
in China, but I think the figures that is given is 120 males to 100 females in the new birth
cohort. And that's a very, very serious imbalance.
LAM: And do you find that surprising, given that the Chinese Communist Party has
always given equal weightage and indeed, promoted equal rights, at least on paper
between men and women?
WALDRON: Well, there's a contradiction there, but I think the real problem is the social
engineering approach, because even if they ... er.... a lot of this is being driven by a
labour shortage. For awhile there, there were lots and lots of young people who could
work and now in a few years there are not going to be anymore, there is going to be no
more increase in the number of workers in China and by 2025, the labour force is going
to be shrinking and this is a policy that was social engineered by a handful of people at
the top in 1980 or so. And it is not clear to me that they really understood about age
distributions and demographic pyramids and so forth and the problems you have when
you have a vast age population and you have only a relatively small number of younger
productive people to support them.
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