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Canada: The Sustainable Emerging Market


    Making the Case for Maersk’s Investment in Canada




                                  By Saili Chisanga


                                                        1
“An economic miracle”

 The Organization for Economic Co-operation and
  Development (OECD) calls Canada “an
  economic miracle”.


 The IMF and OECD say that Canada has the best
  economic outlook among all G7 countries.




                                                   2
Emerging Markets


 Most Emerging markets have high growth potential, but also high risk
 Risks include: political, monetary and social
 Most emerging countries offer one natural resource


However:
 Canada has the growth potential of an emerging market, with the low
  risks of an advanced mature economy
 Canada is resource rich. That is, not one resource, but several


 Lack of political, monetary and social risks, combined with plentiful
  resources, make Canada the most Sustainable Emerging Market


                                                                          3
Natural Resources

 Canada is the largest exporter of potash
 Canada is the second largest producer of uranium
 Canada is third in proven oil reserves
 Third largest producer of natural gas.
 Fourth largest diamond producer
 3rd largest producer of aluminum
 4th largest in platinum metals
 5th largest nickel producer
 There are more than 50 other minerals and metals that Canada
  produces, such as gold, copper, silver, etc




                                                                 4
5
Agriculture




              6
Lumber

 USA was our primary market for our lumber exports and our lumber
  exports declined with US housing market decline. But now, with the
  Chinese demand increase and US housing market poised to pick up in
  the coming years; this will be great for the lumber industry in terms of
  exports and job creation.


 Timber and agri-food products are arriving in China in increasing
  volumes, thanks to the ease of movement made possible by Canada’s
  Asia-Pacific Gateway.




                                                                             7
Food Industry


 Canada is one of only 24 Net Exports of food. The food sector is
  growing and contributes more jobs than automobile and high-tech
  manufacturing


 The high level of development of Canada's food industry means
  Canadians will not face questions of food security that will plague
  billions worldwide in the decades ahead.


 World leader in grain and oilseed – Canola is the next “super-food”,
  and demand is growing exponentially




                                                                         8
Political Stability

 Canada is 3rd place in political stability and lack of political risk, right
  after Norway and Denmark.


 Corruption can add up to 10% to the total cost of doing business and
  25% to the cost of procurement of contracts.


 In Canada, we can focus our resources to getting business and not
  worrying about political risk.


 Stephen Harper now has a majority government, and so, decisions can
  be made more swiftly. There promises to be less “red tape” and an
  increase in ease of doing international business.



                                                                                 9
2010 Ranking of Political Stability




                                      10
… Financial stability




 AAA
 Sovereign Credit Rating
     Standard & Poor’s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AAA 1
     Moody’s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Aaa 2
     DBRS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AAA 3
 1
   Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. Sovereign Ratings 2010. July 2010.
 2
   Moody’s Investor Services Inc. Canadian Ratings List. July 2010.
 3
   DBRS Limited. Sovereign Credit Ratings. July 2010.




                                                                                  11
Canadian banking system is the soundest


For three years in a row, the World Economic Forum has
named the Canadian banking system the soundest in
the world. 1

At a time when numerous financial institutions around the
world were collapsing, no Canadian bank or insurer
failed. No Canadian bank required a bailout.


 1
  The World Economic Forum. The Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009, 2009–2010,
 and 2010-2011.




                                                                                      12
Free Trade

 Canada is the first G20 nation to implement foreign trade zones (FTZ)
  that are geographically flexible.


 Canada provides unsurpassed tariff and Foreign Trade Zone
  advantages.


 Canada, whose prosperity is greatly dependent on trade, understands
  the importance of open markets for international investors. Canada is
  eliminating tariffs on imported manufacturing machinery and equipment
  and related industrial inputs such as chemicals, textiles and base
  metals.


 This attracts foreign investors and strengthens partnerships with
  foreign countries involved, lowers costs of production and
  administrative burden.
                                                                          13
Foreign Direct Investment


 Canada’s FDI has been increasing steadily for past 5 years.


 There is a lot of Foreign Direct investment in specific sectors that are
  poised for growth.


 FDI in Wood, food, manufacturing, mining and renewable energy are
  the highest


 In 2010, Ontario was noted the best Top North American Jurisdiction
  for FDI Projects Relative to Population in 2010 with 10 Projects Per
  Million of Population



                                                                             14
Companies are coming to Canada

Canada’s business environment is much less saturated than the US and
 we are seeing a number of retailers and manufacturers moving to
 Canada, Target, Whole Foods, Lowe's Home Improvement Centers,
 and Lord & Taylor etc




                                                                       15
Innovation

 Canada has taken an active role in investing in innovation –Innovation
  Demonstration Fund, investing $715milion in investments from
  government budget.


 Innovation is what will make Canada competitive on a global scale and
  provide more/better ways of doing business


 There is a Ministry of Research and Innovation that facilitates and
  gives grants and loans for innovating companies and providing an
  incentive for companies to go above and beyond.


 Canada gives tax breaks to companies investing in innovation.


 Grants, loans and tax breaks are meant to stimulate and facilitate the
  development of innovative ideas                                          16
… Innovation powerhouse

                     Vancouver is #1 in North
                     America for patents filed for fuel cells1


                     Toronto is #3 in North America
                     for patents filed in the automotive
                     sector1

                     Montréal, Vancouver and
                     Toronto rank among the Top 10
                     cities in North America for life sciences
                     patent filings1

                     Canada ranks #1 in the G7 for
                     the number of scientific articles
                     published per capita2
                     1
                         fDi Benchmarking database, fDi Intelligence.
                     2
                       Conference Board of Canada.
                     <http://www.conferenceboard.ca/HCP/Details/Innovation
                     /scientific-articles.aspx>.
                                                                             17
Trade Agreements

 Trade agreements with EU have solidified partnerships with European
  countries to eliminate barriers to trade (EU Comprehensive Economic
  and Trade Agreement).
 Trade missions to Germany have enabled agreements between the
  countries to ship light weight vehicle materials to Canada with no
  tariffs.
 Trade agreements with Chile and Japan have recently occurred to
  strengthen relations and eliminate trade barriers.
 Ontario government has partnered with China for the Ontario-China
  Research and Innovation Fund.
 Trade missions to the Middle East have solidified direct investment in
  infrastructure in Ontario and have netted millions in a new partnership
  with the region.
 Also there have been trade agreements made with other high growth
  emerging markets
                                                                            18
Immigration and Small Business


 Immigration – Highest immigration rate and most are
  economic immigrants which translate into higher GDP
  growth rate (2.3%growth with 100,000 economic
  immigrants a year)


 Small Business: 98% of businesses in Canada have <100
  employess. 90% exporter are small businesses (<50)
  accounting for 21% of GDP.




                                                          19
Substitution Effect

 Recession was an eye opener for Canada.
 Canada has realized that in order to minimize risk and to achieve the
  same success attained from the NAFTA agreement; we must diversify
  our trade portfolios.
 For the past 10 years, Canadian US imports and exports have been
  reducing (CAGR: -2%) with a rapid increase in other foreign imports
  and exports.
 As globalization occurs and distance becomes less of a variable in
  trade, international trade has increased, and a substitution effect has
  ensued.
 While some shipping companies may think of Canada’s strong ties with
  US as a disadvantage to business, the opposite is true, as a
  substitution effect is in order. New trade lanes have been opened to
  other countries.

                                                                            20
Sustainability

 Growth Sustainability=Potential for Growth (Profitability) + Low
  Risk+ Infrastructure


 Potential for Growth=Sector/Commodity growth, Trade agreements,
  minerals, substitution from USA to world countries


 Low Risk= Substitution from USA to world countries, Canada’s
  Political Stability, Stable Financial and Fiscal Policies, Trade
  agreements


 Infrastructure= Foreign Direct Investments, Government Investments,
  Flexible Free Trade Zones, Immigration.



                                                                        21
Why is Canada the best place in the G7 to do
business?


     The Strongest Economic Growth in the G7
     Canada leads the G7 in economic growth. The International Monetary Fund
     says that this will continue over the next two years1



     The Soundest Banking System in the World
     The World Economic Forum says that Canada has the soundest banking
     system in the world, followed by New Zealand and Australia2



     The Lowest Overall Business Costs in the G7
     Canada offers the lowest overall business costs in the G73


 1
   The International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook April 2010.
 2
   The World Economic Forum. The Global Competitiveness Report 2010 - 2011.
 3
   KPMG. Competitive Alternatives 2010.



                                                                               22
Canada is the Best Place to Invest in the G7




 The EIU ranks Canada #1 in the
 G7 and #4 in the world as a country
 in which to conduct business over the next
 five years (2010 – 2014)1


 According to the IMF, Canada has the
 lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the
 G7 2

 1
   The Economist Intelligence Unit. The Business Environment Ranking, August
 2010.
 2
   The International Monetary Fund (IMF). World Economic Outlook April 2010.




                                                                               23
. . . Integrated into North American markets




                   500 km


                                                                                                                     St. John's
                   1000 km             Edmonton
                                                                                     Québec            Charlottetown
                             Calgary         Regina             Winnipeg               Fredericton     Halifax
            Victoria       Vancouver                                             Ottawa    Montréal
                           Seattle
                                                                 Milwaukee      Toronto        Boston
                                                                             Windsor          New York
                                                                     Chicago                Cleveland Philadelphia
                                                                              Detroit
                                                                                  Pittsburgh         Baltimore
                                                                    St. Louis                        Washington

                       San Francisco          Denver


                                                                                       Atlanta
                            Los Angeles


                                                       Houston
                                                                                                   Miami




                                                  Mexico City




                                                                                                                                  24
… Ease of doing business



 One (1) Procedure
  It takes, on average, only one
  procedure to start up a company
  in Canada and the process takes about 5
  days. This is the best rating among the
  G7 countries
  Source: The World Bank Group. Doing Business in 2011.




                                                          25
… Highly educated and multicultural workforce

                        Canada ranks #1 in the OECD
                        for its college completion rates
                        (23.6% of working-age Canadians
                        have graduated from college)1



                         Canada ranks #2 in the G7 in
                         terms of the availability of qualified
                         engineers in its workforce, according to
                         the IMD 3


                            The WEF ranks Canada #1 in the
                            G7 on the quality of management
                            schools 2

                        1
                          OECD. Education at a Glance 2009
                        2
                          International Institute of Management Development. World
                        Competitiveness Yearbook 2010.
                        3
                          World Economic Forum. Global Competitiveness Report 2010-
                        2011


                                                                                      26
Multilingual Workforce: 20% of Canadians have a
Mother tongue other than English or French


Canada’s Workforce By Mother Tongue, Number Of Working Age People

          French
       4,786,640
                                              Other Languages
                                              4,407,615
                                              Chinese      772,040
                                              Italian      280,610
                                              Spanish      270,705
                                              Punjabi      253,315
                                              German       241,630
                                              Arabic       195,735
                                              Portuguese   170,400
                                              Polish       153,325
                                              Korean       99,655
                                              Hindi        60,600
        English                               Japanese     26,965
     12,395,670


Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006.



                                                                     27
Canada has the Lowest Cost Structure in the G7




Lowest
 In 14 of 17 sectors analyzed in
 KPMG’s competitive alternatives
 2010, Canada has the lowest
 overall business costs
 in the G7
 Source: KPMG. Competitive Alternatives 2010.




                                                 28
Canada offers your company Duty Free Manufacturing




 0%
 In Budget 2010, the Government of Canada
 announced that Canada will eliminate all
 remaining tariffs on manufacturing inputs
 and machinery and equipment by 2015.
 Canada is the first country in the
 G20 to do so.
 Source: Government of Canada. The Federal Budget 2010.




                                                          29
Questions




            30

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Canada, the Sustainable Emerging Market

  • 1. Canada: The Sustainable Emerging Market Making the Case for Maersk’s Investment in Canada By Saili Chisanga 1
  • 2. “An economic miracle”  The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) calls Canada “an economic miracle”.  The IMF and OECD say that Canada has the best economic outlook among all G7 countries. 2
  • 3. Emerging Markets  Most Emerging markets have high growth potential, but also high risk  Risks include: political, monetary and social  Most emerging countries offer one natural resource However:  Canada has the growth potential of an emerging market, with the low risks of an advanced mature economy  Canada is resource rich. That is, not one resource, but several  Lack of political, monetary and social risks, combined with plentiful resources, make Canada the most Sustainable Emerging Market 3
  • 4. Natural Resources  Canada is the largest exporter of potash  Canada is the second largest producer of uranium  Canada is third in proven oil reserves  Third largest producer of natural gas.  Fourth largest diamond producer  3rd largest producer of aluminum  4th largest in platinum metals  5th largest nickel producer  There are more than 50 other minerals and metals that Canada produces, such as gold, copper, silver, etc 4
  • 5. 5
  • 7. Lumber  USA was our primary market for our lumber exports and our lumber exports declined with US housing market decline. But now, with the Chinese demand increase and US housing market poised to pick up in the coming years; this will be great for the lumber industry in terms of exports and job creation.  Timber and agri-food products are arriving in China in increasing volumes, thanks to the ease of movement made possible by Canada’s Asia-Pacific Gateway. 7
  • 8. Food Industry  Canada is one of only 24 Net Exports of food. The food sector is growing and contributes more jobs than automobile and high-tech manufacturing  The high level of development of Canada's food industry means Canadians will not face questions of food security that will plague billions worldwide in the decades ahead.  World leader in grain and oilseed – Canola is the next “super-food”, and demand is growing exponentially 8
  • 9. Political Stability  Canada is 3rd place in political stability and lack of political risk, right after Norway and Denmark.  Corruption can add up to 10% to the total cost of doing business and 25% to the cost of procurement of contracts.  In Canada, we can focus our resources to getting business and not worrying about political risk.  Stephen Harper now has a majority government, and so, decisions can be made more swiftly. There promises to be less “red tape” and an increase in ease of doing international business. 9
  • 10. 2010 Ranking of Political Stability 10
  • 11. … Financial stability AAA Sovereign Credit Rating Standard & Poor’s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AAA 1 Moody’s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Aaa 2 DBRS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AAA 3 1 Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. Sovereign Ratings 2010. July 2010. 2 Moody’s Investor Services Inc. Canadian Ratings List. July 2010. 3 DBRS Limited. Sovereign Credit Ratings. July 2010. 11
  • 12. Canadian banking system is the soundest For three years in a row, the World Economic Forum has named the Canadian banking system the soundest in the world. 1 At a time when numerous financial institutions around the world were collapsing, no Canadian bank or insurer failed. No Canadian bank required a bailout. 1 The World Economic Forum. The Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009, 2009–2010, and 2010-2011. 12
  • 13. Free Trade  Canada is the first G20 nation to implement foreign trade zones (FTZ) that are geographically flexible.  Canada provides unsurpassed tariff and Foreign Trade Zone advantages.  Canada, whose prosperity is greatly dependent on trade, understands the importance of open markets for international investors. Canada is eliminating tariffs on imported manufacturing machinery and equipment and related industrial inputs such as chemicals, textiles and base metals.  This attracts foreign investors and strengthens partnerships with foreign countries involved, lowers costs of production and administrative burden. 13
  • 14. Foreign Direct Investment  Canada’s FDI has been increasing steadily for past 5 years.  There is a lot of Foreign Direct investment in specific sectors that are poised for growth.  FDI in Wood, food, manufacturing, mining and renewable energy are the highest  In 2010, Ontario was noted the best Top North American Jurisdiction for FDI Projects Relative to Population in 2010 with 10 Projects Per Million of Population 14
  • 15. Companies are coming to Canada Canada’s business environment is much less saturated than the US and we are seeing a number of retailers and manufacturers moving to Canada, Target, Whole Foods, Lowe's Home Improvement Centers, and Lord & Taylor etc 15
  • 16. Innovation  Canada has taken an active role in investing in innovation –Innovation Demonstration Fund, investing $715milion in investments from government budget.  Innovation is what will make Canada competitive on a global scale and provide more/better ways of doing business  There is a Ministry of Research and Innovation that facilitates and gives grants and loans for innovating companies and providing an incentive for companies to go above and beyond.  Canada gives tax breaks to companies investing in innovation.  Grants, loans and tax breaks are meant to stimulate and facilitate the development of innovative ideas 16
  • 17. … Innovation powerhouse Vancouver is #1 in North America for patents filed for fuel cells1 Toronto is #3 in North America for patents filed in the automotive sector1 Montréal, Vancouver and Toronto rank among the Top 10 cities in North America for life sciences patent filings1 Canada ranks #1 in the G7 for the number of scientific articles published per capita2 1 fDi Benchmarking database, fDi Intelligence. 2 Conference Board of Canada. <http://www.conferenceboard.ca/HCP/Details/Innovation /scientific-articles.aspx>. 17
  • 18. Trade Agreements  Trade agreements with EU have solidified partnerships with European countries to eliminate barriers to trade (EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement).  Trade missions to Germany have enabled agreements between the countries to ship light weight vehicle materials to Canada with no tariffs.  Trade agreements with Chile and Japan have recently occurred to strengthen relations and eliminate trade barriers.  Ontario government has partnered with China for the Ontario-China Research and Innovation Fund.  Trade missions to the Middle East have solidified direct investment in infrastructure in Ontario and have netted millions in a new partnership with the region.  Also there have been trade agreements made with other high growth emerging markets 18
  • 19. Immigration and Small Business  Immigration – Highest immigration rate and most are economic immigrants which translate into higher GDP growth rate (2.3%growth with 100,000 economic immigrants a year)  Small Business: 98% of businesses in Canada have <100 employess. 90% exporter are small businesses (<50) accounting for 21% of GDP. 19
  • 20. Substitution Effect  Recession was an eye opener for Canada.  Canada has realized that in order to minimize risk and to achieve the same success attained from the NAFTA agreement; we must diversify our trade portfolios.  For the past 10 years, Canadian US imports and exports have been reducing (CAGR: -2%) with a rapid increase in other foreign imports and exports.  As globalization occurs and distance becomes less of a variable in trade, international trade has increased, and a substitution effect has ensued.  While some shipping companies may think of Canada’s strong ties with US as a disadvantage to business, the opposite is true, as a substitution effect is in order. New trade lanes have been opened to other countries. 20
  • 21. Sustainability  Growth Sustainability=Potential for Growth (Profitability) + Low Risk+ Infrastructure  Potential for Growth=Sector/Commodity growth, Trade agreements, minerals, substitution from USA to world countries  Low Risk= Substitution from USA to world countries, Canada’s Political Stability, Stable Financial and Fiscal Policies, Trade agreements  Infrastructure= Foreign Direct Investments, Government Investments, Flexible Free Trade Zones, Immigration. 21
  • 22. Why is Canada the best place in the G7 to do business? The Strongest Economic Growth in the G7 Canada leads the G7 in economic growth. The International Monetary Fund says that this will continue over the next two years1 The Soundest Banking System in the World The World Economic Forum says that Canada has the soundest banking system in the world, followed by New Zealand and Australia2 The Lowest Overall Business Costs in the G7 Canada offers the lowest overall business costs in the G73 1 The International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook April 2010. 2 The World Economic Forum. The Global Competitiveness Report 2010 - 2011. 3 KPMG. Competitive Alternatives 2010. 22
  • 23. Canada is the Best Place to Invest in the G7 The EIU ranks Canada #1 in the G7 and #4 in the world as a country in which to conduct business over the next five years (2010 – 2014)1 According to the IMF, Canada has the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7 2 1 The Economist Intelligence Unit. The Business Environment Ranking, August 2010. 2 The International Monetary Fund (IMF). World Economic Outlook April 2010. 23
  • 24. . . . Integrated into North American markets 500 km St. John's 1000 km Edmonton Québec Charlottetown Calgary Regina Winnipeg Fredericton Halifax Victoria Vancouver Ottawa Montréal Seattle Milwaukee Toronto Boston Windsor New York Chicago Cleveland Philadelphia Detroit Pittsburgh Baltimore St. Louis Washington San Francisco Denver Atlanta Los Angeles Houston Miami Mexico City 24
  • 25. … Ease of doing business One (1) Procedure It takes, on average, only one procedure to start up a company in Canada and the process takes about 5 days. This is the best rating among the G7 countries Source: The World Bank Group. Doing Business in 2011. 25
  • 26. … Highly educated and multicultural workforce Canada ranks #1 in the OECD for its college completion rates (23.6% of working-age Canadians have graduated from college)1 Canada ranks #2 in the G7 in terms of the availability of qualified engineers in its workforce, according to the IMD 3 The WEF ranks Canada #1 in the G7 on the quality of management schools 2 1 OECD. Education at a Glance 2009 2 International Institute of Management Development. World Competitiveness Yearbook 2010. 3 World Economic Forum. Global Competitiveness Report 2010- 2011 26
  • 27. Multilingual Workforce: 20% of Canadians have a Mother tongue other than English or French Canada’s Workforce By Mother Tongue, Number Of Working Age People French 4,786,640 Other Languages 4,407,615 Chinese 772,040 Italian 280,610 Spanish 270,705 Punjabi 253,315 German 241,630 Arabic 195,735 Portuguese 170,400 Polish 153,325 Korean 99,655 Hindi 60,600 English Japanese 26,965 12,395,670 Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006. 27
  • 28. Canada has the Lowest Cost Structure in the G7 Lowest In 14 of 17 sectors analyzed in KPMG’s competitive alternatives 2010, Canada has the lowest overall business costs in the G7 Source: KPMG. Competitive Alternatives 2010. 28
  • 29. Canada offers your company Duty Free Manufacturing 0% In Budget 2010, the Government of Canada announced that Canada will eliminate all remaining tariffs on manufacturing inputs and machinery and equipment by 2015. Canada is the first country in the G20 to do so. Source: Government of Canada. The Federal Budget 2010. 29
  • 30. Questions 30