Business Services Outlook 2018
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The Business Services Outlook 2018 examines the trends and issues affecting business services providers in 2018 and beyond. We focus on three key areas that organisations could consider in the short term to maximise their growth potential.
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Generating record revenue of €841m, Barcelona reach the top of the Money League for the first time, becoming the first club to break the €800m barrier. Overall, the 20 highest earning football clubs in the world generated a record €9.3bn (2018: €8.3bn) of combined revenue in 2018/19, an increase of 11% on the previous year.
UK corporate environment - November 2019
1. Macro environment - Global economy set to grow at slowest pace since 2010 this year, and remain below trend in 2020. UK growth to remain soft this year and next. Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty loom large.
2. Momentum – UK avoided recession in Q3, business investment declining, manufacturing activity soft, household spending holding up but slowing.
3. Operating costs – cost pressures due to tight labour market but may loosen as firms pull back on hiring. Commodity prices and rental values soft. Credit conditions expected to tighten.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite near lowest level since 2008, focus on cost reduction, deleveraging and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit still relatively cheap and easily available but signs of tightening, profits falling.
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2. Impact of trade tensions greater and more prolonged than expected
3. Exports, manufacturing and investment worst hit
4. Central banks have responded with rate cuts and QE
5. Monetary easing has supported equities, recovering after a sell off in August
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7. Slow growth to continue, risks tilted to the downside
UK corporate environment
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
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1. Global activity continues to ease
2. Significant slowdown in euro area
3. Trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies
4. Rate expectations pushed back as central banks make dovish statements
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3. China transitioning to slower growth, service economy
4. Central banks pulling back from tightening
5. UK growth dependent on Brexit: exit deal could see GDP growth > 1.0% this year, no deal growth could be < 0.5%
6. Risks to global growth tilting to downside
Belfast Crane Survey 2019
Belfast has sustained momentum and a high level of ambition through 2018, with construction schemes across the city centre. This is in spite of potentially disruptive macro forces in play including Brexit, and the lack of an executive at Stormont.
Birmingham Crane Survey 2019
Birmingham continues to hit new heights as it drives forward into an era of re-development and re-purposing. Yet again, the city has record-levels of construction with both developer and investor confidence high as preparations for HS2 gets underway and the 2022 Commonwealth Games draws ever closer.
Manchester Crane Survey 2019
Establishing itself as one of Europe’s fastest growing cities, Manchester continues to lead the way in catering for an increasing metropolitan population. Entire new neighbourhoods are in development redefining the parameters of the city centre as it pushes outwards and upwards driving record levels of construction.
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1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
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3. Trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies
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6. 2020 UK growth heavily dependent on Brexit settlement
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