Research and analysis on what happened to Bitcoin in 2022. I also try and build a case for my predictions moving forward into 2023.

1. Michael Bogosian
BTC Cycles
2022 Quick Review & 2023 Predictions
Source: Arcane Research

2. Michael Bogosian
Which Cycle Pattern Will We Experience?
Peak to trough, 85% was the average pull back and that would put the floor closer to $15K USD. As for the recovery, each cycle is
triggered by very different market dynamics, underlying technical construction, and sentiment of the market.

3. Michael Bogosian
Bitcoin Hashrate: The Big Surprise of 2022
Predictions in the early summer of 2022 had hashrate stabilizing or
trending lower.
Q3 2022 - The pattern was inline with expectations.
Q4 2022 - Hashrate went parabolic increasing 25-35%
How did we get it so wrong?
Yes, ASICs did flood the market. Price of SJ19 Pro’s fell from a peak of
roughly $15k to $3-4k USD.
What we didn’t anticipate was the average performance of ASICs
mining Bitcoin improve so dramatically.
As deliveries of current best in class ASICs ordered earlier in the year
started to come online, miners chose to sunset their less efficient
ASICs in an effort to combat rising electricity prices.
The result was a net increase of hashrate rate. Increases in hashrate
combined with flagging price of Bitcoin led to a perfect storm.

4. Michael Bogosian
Cold Storage is in Vogue Again
The trend lower in Bitcoin held on exchange began in January. It grinded lower until the middle of Q3 where in shifted into high gear
ending the year near 12% from a peak of 22%. There are two sides to the story here.

5. Michael Bogosian
The Genie in the Bottle for 2023 | Open Interests
As referenced in the previous slide, Bitcoin on exchange has been
grinding lower all year.
The current slide shares provides a different look at how we might
understand how volatility affects the price action of Bitcoin and what we
can expect in 2023.
Volatility has an overwhelming effect on risk / reward analysis moving
forward. The behavior tends to have a stronger correlation with forward
looking predictions.
Open Interest (black line) is simply a measure of “bets” (long + short) on
the direction of the price in the future.
It is quite clear that open interest increase in 2022 has been remarkably
accurate if you had tried to predict price action volatility moving
forward.
As Open Interest increased in 2022, the price continued its slide but at a
much more tepid and less volatile path.

6. Michael Bogosian
The Genie in the Bottle for 2023 | Open Interests
Q4 price action of Bitcoin only does more to support the high correlation narrative to open interest the futures market. Notice the
precipitous drop in open interest preceded the crash to $16.5K USD per Bitcoin.

7. Michael Bogosian
Closing Thoughts: Sleepy Q1 & Q2 | Wild Ride Q3 & Q4
2023 Will Be the End of the Bear Market
The price will go parabolic to the upside in the 2nd half of 2023
1. The first half of 2023 will be range bound between $16k - $20/22k USD
2. The composition of market participants will change dramatically i.e. weak hands will fully capitulate and whales
and institutions with much deeper pockets will quietly resume aggressive accumulation
3. Bitcoin on exchange open interest will start to favor more speculative bets starting end of Q2
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Expect a battle between short sellers and bulls similar to that of the battle of Thermopylae. Short sellers (Persian
Army), having both market sentiment and bear market as their tailwind, end up winning the battle that day.
The Spartans (Whales & Institutions) however, win back the hearts and minds of the market which ultimately
winning the war and driving the Persians into the sea. Get your popcorn ready!