1. ANALYZING THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF BREXIT ON
AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
Maddie Roura, Lucy Mulford, Dylan Fishbein, Mamadou Cherif Simpara
Introduction
The goal of this poster is to predict changes to agriculture and
agricultural subsidies in the UK upon the UK’s decision to
leave the EU.
- The UK will soon decide to either remain a member state of
the EU or separate from the EU entirely.
- British farmers and farmers across the EU currently receive
substantial agricultural subsidies from the EU’s Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP).
- The CAP organizes and administers payments for rural
development, agricultural subsidies, and other related
programs to the EU’s member states. It was originally
created in an attempt to integrate European markets.
- If the UK decides to leave the EU, there will be significant
changes to agriculture in the UK and other EU nations.
Abstract
- This project aims to present the effects of Brexit on
agricultural subsidies in the United Kingdom.
- We hypothesize that the United Kingdom will see
significant reductions in the agricultural subsidies that it
receives from the EU, and these reductions will have
adverse effects on the agricultural industry in the UK.
- Through careful research and analysis, the results show that
if Brexit were to occur, agricultural subsidies to the
United Kingdom would decrease.
Hypothesis
If Brexit occurs, then agricultural subsidies
in the United Kingdom will decrease.
Independent Variable : Brexit
Dependent Variable : Agricultural subsidies in the UK
Brexit
Decreased agricultural
subsidies
Decreased farming income
Decreased trade
Decreased exports to other EU
nations [1]
Figure 1 - Flow chart representing the effects of Brexit on agricultural subsidies, trade,
exports, and farming income.
Figure 2 - Line graph representing British exports over previous years, and a
predicted value of British exports if the UK were to lose all trade with EU nations
after Brexit. [2]
Data
Citations
[1] - "British Agriculture Hangs in the Balance of the
Brexit." Stratfor. N.p., 1 July 2016. Web. 27 Oct.
2016.
[2] - Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose. "Brexit Is a Life or
Death Matter for Britain’s Farmers." The Telegraph.
Telegraph Media Group, 1 Nov. 2015. Web. 27 Oct.
2016
[3] - Godsen, Emily. "Farmers' Leader Seeks Government
Subsidy "Equal to Support Given by European Union”"
Telegraph. Telegraph Media Group, 26 June 2016. Web.
27 Oct. 2016.
Data (Continued)
- 62% of UK exports go to other nations
in the EU. If the UK leaves the EU, it
will be left with only 38% of its total
pre-Brexit exports to nations outside of
the EU. [1]
- This would decrease UK exports
from £18.6 billion/yr to £7 billion/yr.
- UK farmers are extremely reliant on
CAP payments and subsidies.
- CAP payments accounted for 55%
of UK farmers’ income in 2014. [3]
Conclusion
- If the UK leaves the EU, agricultural
subsidies in the UK will decrease
significantly.
- Potential post-Brexit scenarios
- UK forms its own version of the
CAP with other nations.
- Farmers in the UK turn to their
government for subsidies.
- In turn, would cause increased
taxes within the UK.