Presentation on the Brexit scenario 2018

2. WHAT IS BREXIT?
 ‘British exit’ a.k.a. Brexit refers to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
It follows the referendum of 23 June 2016 when 52 percent of those who voted supported
withdrawal. The UK joined the European Communities in 1973, with membership confirmed by a
referendum in 1975.
 “Eurosceptics” within England are those who voted “leave” in the 2016 referendum due to the
surge of immigration, they were the ones who had opposed to adopting the common currency,
Euro. They thought that the EU was eating at Britain’s national sovereignty. While the erstwhile
PM David Cameroon was campaigning for ‘remain’ votes since the solution would be disastrous
for the economy as EU comprised of 45% of Britain’s export trade. So the vital question was the
pitting of the issue of flow of immigrants (remain vote) against the Economic risks of an exit (leave
vote).

3. BREXIT- THE CURRENT SCENARIO
 When is the UK due to leave the EU?- the UK is scheduled to leave at 11pm UK time on Friday, 29
March 2019. It can be extended if all 28 EU members agree, but at the moment all sides are
focusing on that date as being the key one, and Theresa May has now put it into British law.
 Could Brexit be delayed?- there was a chance the UK could end up staying in, possibly through
another referendum, but it would only be by a few months.
 What's happening now?- the UK and EU have agreed a Brexit deal CALLED the withdrawal
agreement; a legally-binding text that sets the terms of the UK's divorce from the EU. And a
statement on future relations; not legally-binding and sketches out the kind of long-term
relationship the UK and EU want to have in a range of areas, including trade, defense and
security.

4. EFFECTS OF BREXIT: ON BRITAIN AND ON
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
 It turns out that when making macroeconomic and market projections for Brexit so far, “short versus
long” has been more important than “soft versus hard” (with “hard” referring to the UK’s full, and most
likely disorderly, withdrawal from the European single market and customs union). Nonetheless, the UK
economy is already experiencing slow-moving structural change.
 There is evidence of falling foreign investment and this is contributing to the economy’s disappointing
level of investment overall. Moreover, this trend is accentuating the challenges associated with weak
productivity growth. There is a broad consensus among economists and in the economic literature that
Brexit will likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level.
 Most economists, including the UK Treasury, argue that being in the EU has a strong positive effect on
trade and as a result the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU.
 An economic research institute in London, the Institute for Fiscal Studies claimed the cost of reduced
economic growth would cost the UK around £70 billion, more than the £8 billion savings in
membership fees.
 Research by the 'Centre for European Reform' suggests the UK economy is 2.5% smaller than it would
have been if Remain had won the referendum. Public finances fell by £26bn a year. This amounts to
£500m a week and is growing. An estimate suggested Britain's economy is 2.1% smaller than it would
have been after the first quarter of 2018.

5. CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTING BREXIT
 The Good Friday Agreement: The U.K. is a sovereign state that consists of four individual
countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. N. Ireland’s devolved system of
government is based on the agreement. The N. Ireland does not want to leave the E.U. The
Welsh and Scottish governments have denounced the EU Withdrawal Bill as a Whitehall "power
grab".
 Common Fisheries Policy: The 12 countries of the E.U. have a common policy on fishing quota.
Post Brexit i.e. only from 2021 will the UK be able to negotiate access to its waters as a sovereign
nation.
 EU Withdrawal Bill: the PM is not only dependent on the votes of her allies but must also stave off
potential rebellions from Tories on both sides of the Brexit debate. (The prophecy is that it will
most probably be a soft- Brexit). Already Labour has proposed changes to the EU Withdrawal Bill
to include a legal commitment to keeping the border open, while Tory rebels have put forward
an amendment to put customs union membership back on the table.