Bp thinkingfastslow (2)
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System 1 is our fast, automatic thinking which relies on mental shortcuts and biases. System 2 is our slow, effortful, logical thinking. Daniel Kahneman introduced the concept of cognitive biases that influence our judgments and decisions in irrational ways. Examples include anchoring bias where we rely too heavily on the first information we receive, availability bias where we judge likelihood based on what we can easily recall, and planning fallacy where we underestimate costs and overestimate benefits of projects. It is difficult but important to recognize our cognitive biases so we can avoid making mistakes in judgment and decision-making.
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– Why does work not stay on schedule? A combination of Parkinson’s Law and student syndrome.
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List of alternatives or choices
List of important criteria required for your decision
Give a score (e.g. on 10) on each criteria for each alternative
Give a % weight to each criteria if one criteria is more important than the other (sum of criteria weight is 100%)
Multiply each score with its weight and sum up to have the total for each alternative
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Tip :
A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision, or vice versa (maybe external factors!)
We rely too often on emotions instead of research (but remember plain things, plain decision!)
Having an influence on decision making, don’t be easily convinced for :
Nice plausible stories that are told :
Reject the easy and obvious answers that someone comes up with. Not everything that seems plausible is true. Don’t judge outcomes without looking at underlying forces : sometimes what is presented as the root cause, is actually the consequence and vice versa. E.g. beautiful women advertising for cosmetics
We don’t detect what is absent – we see the success but what about the ‘hidden’ failures? Often success is attributed to ability, while failure is caused by external factors.
Big contrasts compromises our judgement:
Big contrasts between things can be misleading : We judge something if we have something completely the opposite in front of us. We have difficulty with absolute judgments. We don’t notice small gradual changes.
When a single aspect dazzles us, it affects how we see the whole picture. E.g. a single quality that produces a positive or negative impression and that outshines everything which make the overall effect disproportionate.
We see what we want to see:
People choose numbers for a lottery thinking it makes a difference or people throw dice harder thinking it makes a difference for a high number. We identify or just invent a pattern and ‘believe in it’ without considering it first as pure chance.
We interpret new information so that our prior conclusions remain intact. E.g. reading opinions on the internet, illusion of “no pain no gain” where there is no concrete result,…
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thinking-fast-and-slow.pptx
- Daniel Kahneman's 2011 book examines two systems of thinking: System 1 which is fast, automatic, and emotional and System 2 which is slower, more logical, and effortful.
- System 1 has biases like neglecting ambiguity, jumping to conclusions, and being influenced by priming and availability but is generally good for quick judgments. System 2 endorses System 1's intuitive thoughts.
- Nudges can influence choices by altering default options, framing effects, and making some options seem normal or easier than others. This influences decisions in areas like organ donation rates.
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How ?
Multiple-criteria decision technique is an evaluation method in order to make rationally a choice between several alternatives on the basis of more than 1 criteria. The steps are :
List of alternatives or choices
List of important criteria required for your decision
Give a score (e.g. on 10) on each criteria for each alternative
Give a % weight to each criteria if one criteria is more important than the other (sum of criteria weight is 100%)
Multiply each score with its weight and sum up to have the total for each alternative
Rank all alternatives from high to low
Tip :
A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision, or vice versa (maybe external factors!)
We rely too often on emotions instead of research (but remember plain things, plain decision!)
Having an influence on decision making, don’t be easily convinced for :
Nice plausible stories that are told :
Reject the easy and obvious answers that someone comes up with. Not everything that seems plausible is true. Don’t judge outcomes without looking at underlying forces : sometimes what is presented as the root cause, is actually the consequence and vice versa. E.g. beautiful women advertising for cosmetics
We don’t detect what is absent – we see the success but what about the ‘hidden’ failures? Often success is attributed to ability, while failure is caused by external factors.
Decision-making tips and tricks
FREE MANAGEMENT CONSULTING COURSE on www.oeconsulting.be
Decision-making
How ?
Multiple-criteria decision technique is an evaluation method in order to make rationally a choice between several alternatives on the basis of more than 1 criteria. The steps are :
List of alternatives or choices
List of important criteria required for your decision
Give a score (e.g. on 10) on each criteria for each alternative
Give a % weight to each criteria if one criteria is more important than the other (sum of criteria weight is 100%)
Multiply each score with its weight and sum up to have the total for each alternative
Rank all alternatives from high to low
Tip :
A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision, or vice versa (maybe external factors!)
We rely too often on emotions instead of research (but remember plain things, plain decision!)
Having an influence on decision making, don’t be easily convinced for :
Nice plausible stories that are told :
Reject the easy and obvious answers that someone comes up with. Not everything that seems plausible is true. Don’t judge outcomes without looking at underlying forces : sometimes what is presented as the root cause, is actually the consequence and vice versa. E.g. beautiful women advertising for cosmetics
We don’t detect what is absent – we see the success but what about the ‘hidden’ failures? Often success is attributed to ability, while failure is caused by external factors.
Big contrasts compromises our judgement:
Big contrasts between things can be misleading : We judge something if we have something completely the opposite in front of us. We have difficulty with absolute judgments. We don’t notice small gradual changes.
When a single aspect dazzles us, it affects how we see the whole picture. E.g. a single quality that produces a positive or negative impression and that outshines everything which make the overall effect disproportionate.
We see what we want to see:
People choose numbers for a lottery thinking it makes a difference or people throw dice harder thinking it makes a difference for a high number. We identify or just invent a pattern and ‘believe in it’ without considering it first as pure chance.
We interpret new information so that our prior conclusions remain intact. E.g. reading opinions on the internet, illusion of “no pain no gain” where there is no concrete result,…
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Bp thinkingfastslow (2)
- 1. Cognitive Biases What you should know & What can you do about it? 3/26/2014 1Footer Text
- 2. Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman • Psychology and economics come together o Most scientific economic models of human decisions assume people to behave rationally. Most psychological theory does not. 2
- 3. What is the feeling this person presenting 3
- 4. Do the math? 4 Which Line is longer, second longest, shortest?
- 5. System 1 and System 2 • System 1, is our fast, automatic, impulsive, intuitive and largely unconscious mode. • It is System 1 that detects hostility in a voice and effortlessly completes the phrase “bread and. . . . ” • System 2, in Kahneman’s scheme, is our slow, deliberate, capable of reasoning, cautious, analytical and consciously effortful mode of reasoning about the world. • It is System 2 that swings into action when we have to fill out a tax form or park a car in a narrow space. • System 2 is lazy and any work it has to do it will try not to. 5
- 6. Do the math? 6 A bat and a ball cost a total of $1.10. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
- 7. Count number of passes white team makes 7
- 8. Priming Effect • Ideomotor effect - influencing of an action by the idea • Florida Example 8
- 9. Priming effect 9 • Honesty Box – drop money in for milk used • Suggested prices are posted • Banners appear • Purely symbolic reminder of being watched prodded people into improved behavior. As we expect at this point, the effect occurs without any awareness.
- 10. Cognitive Strain 10 • You make less mistakes when you’re forced to read small print or make your mind work. • Cognitive strain, whatever its source, mobilizes System 2, which is more likely to reject the intuitive answer suggested by System 1. • Ego Depletion – Effort of will or self-control is tiring; if you have had to force yourself to do something, you are less willing or less able to exert self-control when the next challenge comes around.
- 11. Anchoring 11 Was Gandhi more or less than 144 years old when he died? How old was Gandhi when he died?
- 12. Anchoring 12 • Anchoring Effect - occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity. • We have a tendency to be influenced by irrelevant numbers • Buying something that’s negotiable? Be careful!
- 13. Sunk Cost Fallacy 13 • Sunk Cost - The decision to invest additional resources in a losing account, when better investments are available
- 14. Patterns 14 BBBGGG GGGGGG BGBBGB • Are the sequences equally likely?
- 15. Availability of Info / Bad Events / Rare Events 15 • A salient event that attracts your attention will be easily retrieved from memory and more relevant to your decision making. • Availability heuristic - mental shortcut that occurs when people make judgments about the probability of events by how easy it is to think of examples • If you can think of it, it must be important • How is information shown?
- 16. Planning Fallacy / Optimistic Bias / Predicting the Future 16 • The planning fallacy is the tendency to overestimate benefits and underestimate costs, impelling people to take on risky projects. o In 2002, American kitchen remodeling was expected on average to cost $18,658, but actually cost $38,769 • You can explain the past therefore you can predict the future
- 17. Prospect Theory / Loss Aversion 17 • You are offered a gamble on the toss of a coin. If the coin shows tails, you lose $100. If the coin shows heads, you win $150. Do you take it?
- 18. Conclusion 18 • It’s very hard to change your mind / Flexibility in thinking • If you don’t examine (impressions/feelings/inclinations) they will become beliefs • When can you trust intuition?