Book Summary of Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions is a book by Dan Ariely. The author challenges the readers' rationality while making decisions.
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Eco_Chap_1
1. Economics is the study of how society manages its scarce resources. People face tradeoffs and respond to incentives when making decisions. Markets are generally good for coordinating trade but government can improve outcomes.
2. Individual decisions require comparing costs and benefits at the margin. Productivity determines living standards between countries.
3. In the short run, inflation and unemployment are tradeoffs illustrated by the Phillips Curve. Money printing causes inflation while markets allow for gains from specialization and trade.
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This document summarizes key points from Dan Ariely's book "Predictably Irrational" as presented by Rob Stokes. It discusses how economists assume rational behavior but people are often irrational in decision making. It provides examples of how relativity, anchoring, social norms, ownership, expectations, and more influence decisions in systematic ways. The presentation emphasizes applying these behavioral economic concepts to marketing and business to better understand and influence consumer behavior.
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2) Luck and risk are interconnected - achieving success requires hard work but circumstances outside one's control also influence outcomes. Small changes can have large, compounding effects over time.
3) Having enough money for one's needs is more important than amassing wealth. Comparing oneself to others often breeds dissatisfaction. Focusing on savings is key to maintaining wealth.
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The document discusses several concepts related to personal finance and wealth accumulation. It addresses that:
1) An individual's views on money are influenced by the economic environment they grew up in, as equally intelligent people from different backgrounds may have different financial mindsets and risk tolerances.
2) Both luck and risk play a role in financial outcomes, as a single risky event can trigger other related risks, and seemingly small early advantages can compound into large differences in wealth over time.
3) Maintaining wealth is challenging due to human tendencies like never feeling content, comparing oneself to others, and lifestyle inflation as incomes rise. Focusing on savings and managing risks is important for long-term financial security.
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This document discusses the importance of financial education and provides an overview of basic financial concepts. It is published by Primerica, a financial services company, to help consumers overcome common financial challenges through knowledge. The document encourages readers to take control of their finances by learning principles like paying themselves first, eliminating debt, investing for the long term, and starting early to benefit from the power of compound interest and time. It presents savings and investment strategies as ways for working Americans to achieve financial security and independence.
Common investment mistakes
This document discusses common investment mistakes and biases that can negatively impact investment decisions. It begins by outlining several cognitive biases like overconfidence, availability bias, and loss aversion that can lead investors to make poor choices. It then provides examples of how these biases might influence decisions around individual stocks. The document concludes by discussing lessons that can be learned from successful long-term investors like Warren Buffett, including the importance of patience, understanding investments, and having a consistent strategy.
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Ten principles (1)
This document outlines 10 principles of economics according to an economics textbook. It discusses how individuals and societies face tradeoffs in managing scarce resources, and how rational decision making involves weighing costs and benefits at the margin. Markets are generally effective at organizing economic activity, but governments sometimes need to intervene to address market failures or inequities. A nation's standard of living ultimately depends on its productivity, and excess money creation by the government can lead to inflation, which trades off against unemployment in the short run according to the Phillips curve.
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This document introduces the ten principles of economics according to Gregory Mankiw's economics textbook. It explains that economics studies how societies manage scarce resources and that individuals and societies face tradeoffs in their decision making. It discusses how rational people consider costs and benefits at the margin when making choices and how incentives influence behavior. Trade, markets, and government intervention are reviewed as mechanisms for organizing economic activity. Productivity, money supply, and inflation are linked to standards of living and unemployment rates.
1
This document introduces the ten principles of economics according to Gregory Mankiw's economics textbook. It explains that economics studies how societies manage scarce resources and that individuals and societies face tradeoffs in making decisions. It discusses how rational people consider costs and benefits at the margin when deciding how to allocate resources. Markets are generally efficient but governments sometimes need to intervene to correct market failures or inequities. A nation's standard of living depends on its productivity, and inflation is often caused by increases in the money supply.
Introduction to Economics
This document outlines 10 principles of economics:
1) People face tradeoffs when making decisions that require choosing one goal over another.
2) The cost of something is measured by what one gives up to obtain it, known as opportunity cost.
3) Rational people make decisions by comparing marginal costs and benefits of small incremental changes.
4) Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity as they allow for specialization and gains from trade, but governments can intervene to address market failures or inequities.
5) A country's standard of living depends on its level of productivity and production.
Psychology Meets Economics
The presentation highlights the psychological aspects of human beings while making economic decisions.
DiscussionEconomic behavior is more complex than assumed by co
Discussion
Economic behavior is more complex than assumed by conventional economic theory. Political economy explains the functioning of government. Behavioral economics ties psychology into human behavior.
Economists assume that individuals make rational decisions. However real people are more complex.
Based on what you have learned in your assigned reading, answer the following questions in your initial post:
What are the human behaviors economists should observe when creating economic models? Example: people tend to find solutions that are good enough, but not the best solutions.
In your responses, comment on at least two of your peers’ posts and share example of how non-rational human behavior can change an economic outcome.
Post
Aleisha Pohlenz- Human behaviors have a large impact on decisions that are made even in business situations, but even more so when dealing with personal economic decisions. As the text states people are irrational (much of the time) - we make decisions based on emotions, passed experiences, strong beliefs/values and even "instinct", sometimes we even have a hard time accepting an outcome and learning from it. I think its also extremely important that many people (although we may not always see it or admit it) have a sense of entitlement - feeling entitled can impact decisions and responses to various situations.
Response –
Stacy Portmann - One of the human behaviors that stand out in my mind is the story of the prisoner’s dilemma. Self-interest and the ego motivate behavior and that self interest can result in unpredicted negative outcomes. From this week’s readings, we learned that real people are not always rational, yet economic models are based on rational predictions. Economists can create models, however how can an economic model account for human irrational behavior? Human thought processes like being over confident, placing too much weight on small number of vivid observations and reluctance to change their minds are human habits that are difficult to predict. (Manikw, 2021) Using myself as an example, sometimes I make an immediate on the spot financial decision, other times, I might take two years to make up my mind. This explains why I still don’t have curtains on some of my windows! Additionally, preference ordering and transitivity play a part in economic outcomes, as shown in the example in the reading on voting, where the median voter returns the outcome. Humans break agreements. Humans cheat. Humans are generous. Real people are just imperfect when it comes to decision making and reasoning. Economists need to account for human nature and behaviors when creating economic models.
Response -
...
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Chapter 1, 10 prin
People face tradeoffs when making decisions and consider marginal costs and benefits. Trade benefits all parties by allowing specialization. Markets generally coordinate economic activity well, though governments can address market failures. A country's standard of living depends on productivity, and inflation rises with excess money printing. Society faces a short-term tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
Mankiw
This document provides an overview of 10 principles of economics according to N. Gregory Mankiw's textbook. It discusses that individuals face tradeoffs when making decisions and consider costs and benefits at the margin. Trade between individuals can make all parties better off, and markets are generally efficient at coordinating trade, though governments may intervene to address market failures. A country's production level determines its standard of living, and in the short-run there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
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Eco_Chap_1
1. Economics is the study of how society manages its scarce resources. People face tradeoffs and respond to incentives when making decisions. Markets are generally good for coordinating trade but government can improve outcomes.
2. Individual decisions require comparing costs and benefits at the margin. Productivity determines living standards between countries.
3. In the short run, inflation and unemployment are tradeoffs illustrated by the Phillips Curve. Money printing causes inflation while markets allow for gains from specialization and trade.
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The psychology of money (k).pptx
1) The document discusses different perspectives on wealth, risk, and happiness. It explores how one's views on money and investing are shaped by their upbringing and environment.
2) Luck and risk are interconnected - achieving success requires hard work but circumstances outside one's control also influence outcomes. Small changes can have large, compounding effects over time.
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The_psychology_of_money[1].pptx
The document discusses several concepts related to personal finance and wealth accumulation. It addresses that:
1) An individual's views on money are influenced by the economic environment they grew up in, as equally intelligent people from different backgrounds may have different financial mindsets and risk tolerances.
2) Both luck and risk play a role in financial outcomes, as a single risky event can trigger other related risks, and seemingly small early advantages can compound into large differences in wealth over time.
3) Maintaining wealth is challenging due to human tendencies like never feeling content, comparing oneself to others, and lifestyle inflation as incomes rise. Focusing on savings and managing risks is important for long-term financial security.
how-money-works-us-version
This document discusses the importance of financial education and provides an overview of basic financial concepts. It is published by Primerica, a financial services company, to help consumers overcome common financial challenges through knowledge. The document encourages readers to take control of their finances by learning principles like paying themselves first, eliminating debt, investing for the long term, and starting early to benefit from the power of compound interest and time. It presents savings and investment strategies as ways for working Americans to achieve financial security and independence.
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This document discusses common investment mistakes and biases that can negatively impact investment decisions. It begins by outlining several cognitive biases like overconfidence, availability bias, and loss aversion that can lead investors to make poor choices. It then provides examples of how these biases might influence decisions around individual stocks. The document concludes by discussing lessons that can be learned from successful long-term investors like Warren Buffett, including the importance of patience, understanding investments, and having a consistent strategy.
Fea 7 tips for financial health
This presentation provides seven tips to help manage finances and maintain financial health during difficult economic times. The tips include creating a budget, paying with cash instead of credit when possible, investing when stock prices are low, paying off revolving debt while keeping a small number of credit cards for emergencies, treating your home as shelter rather than an investment, managing tax withholdings, and living within your means by spending less than you earn. Financial Educators of America provides these tips to help people regain their financial freedom.
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Ten principles (1)
This document outlines 10 principles of economics according to an economics textbook. It discusses how individuals and societies face tradeoffs in managing scarce resources, and how rational decision making involves weighing costs and benefits at the margin. Markets are generally effective at organizing economic activity, but governments sometimes need to intervene to address market failures or inequities. A nation's standard of living ultimately depends on its productivity, and excess money creation by the government can lead to inflation, which trades off against unemployment in the short run according to the Phillips curve.
Ten principles
This document introduces the ten principles of economics according to Gregory Mankiw's economics textbook. It explains that economics studies how societies manage scarce resources and that individuals and societies face tradeoffs in their decision making. It discusses how rational people consider costs and benefits at the margin when making choices and how incentives influence behavior. Trade, markets, and government intervention are reviewed as mechanisms for organizing economic activity. Productivity, money supply, and inflation are linked to standards of living and unemployment rates.
1
This document introduces the ten principles of economics according to Gregory Mankiw's economics textbook. It explains that economics studies how societies manage scarce resources and that individuals and societies face tradeoffs in making decisions. It discusses how rational people consider costs and benefits at the margin when deciding how to allocate resources. Markets are generally efficient but governments sometimes need to intervene to correct market failures or inequities. A nation's standard of living depends on its productivity, and inflation is often caused by increases in the money supply.
Introduction to Economics
This document outlines 10 principles of economics:
1) People face tradeoffs when making decisions that require choosing one goal over another.
2) The cost of something is measured by what one gives up to obtain it, known as opportunity cost.
3) Rational people make decisions by comparing marginal costs and benefits of small incremental changes.
4) Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity as they allow for specialization and gains from trade, but governments can intervene to address market failures or inequities.
5) A country's standard of living depends on its level of productivity and production.
Psychology Meets Economics
The presentation highlights the psychological aspects of human beings while making economic decisions.
DiscussionEconomic behavior is more complex than assumed by co
Discussion
Economic behavior is more complex than assumed by conventional economic theory. Political economy explains the functioning of government. Behavioral economics ties psychology into human behavior.
Economists assume that individuals make rational decisions. However real people are more complex.
Based on what you have learned in your assigned reading, answer the following questions in your initial post:
What are the human behaviors economists should observe when creating economic models? Example: people tend to find solutions that are good enough, but not the best solutions.
In your responses, comment on at least two of your peers’ posts and share example of how non-rational human behavior can change an economic outcome.
Post
Aleisha Pohlenz- Human behaviors have a large impact on decisions that are made even in business situations, but even more so when dealing with personal economic decisions. As the text states people are irrational (much of the time) - we make decisions based on emotions, passed experiences, strong beliefs/values and even "instinct", sometimes we even have a hard time accepting an outcome and learning from it. I think its also extremely important that many people (although we may not always see it or admit it) have a sense of entitlement - feeling entitled can impact decisions and responses to various situations.
Response –
Stacy Portmann - One of the human behaviors that stand out in my mind is the story of the prisoner’s dilemma. Self-interest and the ego motivate behavior and that self interest can result in unpredicted negative outcomes. From this week’s readings, we learned that real people are not always rational, yet economic models are based on rational predictions. Economists can create models, however how can an economic model account for human irrational behavior? Human thought processes like being over confident, placing too much weight on small number of vivid observations and reluctance to change their minds are human habits that are difficult to predict. (Manikw, 2021) Using myself as an example, sometimes I make an immediate on the spot financial decision, other times, I might take two years to make up my mind. This explains why I still don’t have curtains on some of my windows! Additionally, preference ordering and transitivity play a part in economic outcomes, as shown in the example in the reading on voting, where the median voter returns the outcome. Humans break agreements. Humans cheat. Humans are generous. Real people are just imperfect when it comes to decision making and reasoning. Economists need to account for human nature and behaviors when creating economic models.
Response -
...
Lecture 1
This document summarizes 10 principles of economics from a lecture presentation. It discusses how individuals and societies face tradeoffs in decision making due to scarce resources. Markets are generally efficient at coordinating trade but sometimes fail, allowing for potential government intervention. A country's production determines living standards, and inflation and unemployment are related in the short-run by the Phillips curve.
The Laws Of Negotiating
This document summarizes 21 laws of negotiating according to Brian Tracy. It discusses the first law, the Law of Subjective Value, which states that the value of anything is subjective and determined by what someone is willing to pay. It provides an example of how businesses may incorrectly guess market prices. The summary then discusses the Universal Law of Negotiating, which states that everything is negotiable as prices are arbitrarily set. It advises the reader to ask for better prices and terms.
Year Book v.1
This document provides a summary of ways people unintentionally mess up their financial lives through the choices and decisions they make. It gives examples such as buying poor investment products, not purchasing adequate insurance, not creating a will, overspending, and not hiring a financial planner. While people may think these are active decisions, they are actually passively choosing outcomes like financial struggle, debt, stress for loved ones, and wasted money by not taking recommended actions. The document encourages people to recognize the implicit choices behind their inactions in financial planning.
Chapter 1, 10 prin
People face tradeoffs when making decisions and consider marginal costs and benefits. Trade benefits all parties by allowing specialization. Markets generally coordinate economic activity well, though governments can address market failures. A country's standard of living depends on productivity, and inflation rises with excess money printing. Society faces a short-term tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
Mankiw
This document provides an overview of 10 principles of economics according to N. Gregory Mankiw's textbook. It discusses that individuals face tradeoffs when making decisions and consider costs and benefits at the margin. Trade between individuals can make all parties better off, and markets are generally efficient at coordinating trade, though governments may intervene to address market failures. A country's production level determines its standard of living, and in the short-run there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
Similar to Book Summary of Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (20)
DiscussionEconomic behavior is more complex than assumed by co
DiscussionEconomic behavior is more complex than assumed by co
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Book Summary of Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
- 1. Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions - Dr. Dan Ariely Traditional finance and economics work on an assumption that people act rationally and make decisions based on their own best interests. But this is unrealistic, Finance and economics should be based more on how people really behave. People behave irrationally, and make same mistakes repeatedly. Hence, are predictably irrational. Submitted by: Sonakshi Gupta 19DM217
- 2. 1. The truth about relativity > People compare things > Look at comparable things relatively 2. The fallacy of supply and demand > Set initial price as the anchor, on the basis of which future paying willingness is based > Price "memory" can also have a major impact. > Self-herding: which is when we think something is good or bad based on our own previous behavior 3. The cost of zero > We often pay too much when we pay nothing > Free is better than a mere discount > zero price effect: People will jump for something free even when it’s something they don’t want
- 3. 4. The cost of social norms > The norms of the market and our social life are different and we live in both worlds at the same time > Money is a costly way to motivate people, social norms cost less > Companies occasionally try to leverage social norms as they build loyalty and engage people 5. The influence of arousal > When emotions run high, logic runs low and the social norms suffer > To make better decisions, we must prepare for the hot state while we are cool in order to avoid bad decisions 6. The problem of procrastination and self control > The problem is that when we make our plans, we’re in a cool emotional state. But real life circumstances bring hot emotions > Pre-commitment
- 4. 7. The high price of ownership > Our society is focused on ownership > We should approach our ownership decisions rationally and systematically > For Example: Real Estate Bubble in 2008 8. Keeping doors open > We like to keep our options open > All of these options come with a cost: time and money > We have to set priorities 9. The effect of Expectations > The real interesting thing is that it’s not just perception, expectations change the actual experiences that we have
- 5. 10. The power of price > Placebo effect: faith and conditioning and familiarity > Placebos in other areas can actually deliver positive end outcomes but in investments, these ineffective activities do not assist us in meeting our end objectives. 11. The context of our character > Trust is important to a well-functioning economy & transactions require trust > People cheat much less if they are reminded of morals and honesty > Cash is something that we’re usually honest about in general CONCLUSION: We are predictably irrational. We should develop systems to mitigate our predictable and systematic mistakes. There are tools and theories that can help us make better decisions.