Bianca Cavicchi presented research on obstacles to sustainable bioheat development in Norway using Hedmark County as a case study. She used a qualitative systems dynamics approach to map the interrelated social, economic and environmental processes. The analysis showed hydropower price and biomass selling price are important but not sole factors, as social perceptions, institutions, and feedbacks between demand, supply and prices also influence development. Addressing only material factors may risk long-term environmental sustainability by not accounting for impacts of perceptions on economic activities and environment over time.

2. THE BURDEN OF SUSTAINABILITY: OBSTACLES
TO BIOHEAT DEVELOPMENT IN NORWAY.
Evidence from Hedmark County

3. PRESENTATION LAYOUT
16/02/2016 3Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
Purpose&Problem articulation
Theory&Methodology
Empirical findings
Context and Processes
Discussion&Preliminary conclusion

4. INTRODUCTION
Purpose&problem articulation
Bianca Cavicchi, PhD Fwllow – Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
16/02/16

5. INTRODUCTION
16/02/16 5
GOAL
Investigate à interrelated
processes that obstacle
sustainable bioheat
development in the
Norwegian context
Sustainable à simultaneous
economic, social and
environmental sustainability
Motivation à lack of holistic
approaches (or attempts); tentative to
go beyond explanations based on
hydropower and biomass selling price
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

6. PROBLEM ARTICULATION
16/02/16 6
CASE STUDY à Hedmark
county: forestry and bioheat hub
of Norway
Strengths: - rich forest resources
- expertise, skills, knowledge
- Strong local interest in
bioenergy
Weaknesses: - conflicting
interests
- hydropower lock in
- selling price of biomass
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

7. PROBLEM ARTICULATION
16/02/16 7
Research questions
‘What are the feedback causal processes at play within the bioheat
system in the case study? Which of them seem to foster or hamper its
sustainable development (i.e. economic, environmental and social
outcomes)?’
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

8. THEORY&METHODOLOGY
16/02/168Bianca Cavicchi, PhD Fwllow – Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

9. SYSTEMS THINKING AND SOCIAL ISSUES
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research 16/02/16 9

10. SYSTEMS THINKING AND SOCIAL ISSUES
16/02/16 10
Group 3
Group 1
Group 2
Bioheat
development
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

11. SYSTEMS THINKING AND SOCIAL ISSUES
16/02/16 11
Systems are:
Interrelated processes of:
- Social issues (power, interests,
perceptions, knowledge)
- Institutions (regulations, norms,
policies)
- material factors (physical-
chemical processes; production;
prices etc.)
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
Source: google

12. METHODOLOGY&METHODS
16/02/2016 12
Qualitative system dynamics:
causal mapping
CLD-building process:
à iterative and reflexive process of data
collection and processing:
1st CLD draft (preliminary hypotheses
based on existent information)
2nd CLD draft (new interviews, public
documents and policy analysis, statistics,
etc.)
.
.
.
Final draft à no inconsistencies and
doubts
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
Source: google

13. ARCHETYPES: PETER SENGE (1990, 1994)
16/02/2016 13Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
Source: Senge, P. 1994. The
fith discipline fieldbook

14. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS
Context and Processes of bioheat development
16/02/1614Bianca Cavicchi, PhD Fellow – Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

15. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS
16/02/16 15
CASE STUDY
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

16. CASE STUDY CONTEXT
16/02/2016 16
Norway à - rural country; 5m inhab; pop.
density 15.5/km2
- Rich natural resources: water (38%),
forests (32%);
- Hydropower-driven industrialization
and –based energy system
- Oil industry, public sector, shipping,
fishery, forestry
- Municipalities direct implementers of
national policies
Hedmark à - 194443 inhab; pop. density
7/km2
- Rich in forest resources (61% CB;
13.8% NB)
- Forestry: highest share of properties
with round-wood removal (18% NB)
and forestry employees (18.3% NB)
- Small forest properties (average
25-99ha but the most productive are
100- 999ha)
- Forests and forestry are concentrated in
the southern part
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

17. REGULATORY CONTEXT OF BIOHEAT
DEVELOPMENT
16/02/16 17
BIOHEAT DEVELOPMENT
Energy Act
Concession Act
Land planning
and Building Act
Incentive
instruments
Climate change
Act
Bioenergy
strategy and
governance
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

18. REGULATORY CONTEXT
16/02/2016 18
Bioenergy
strategy and
governance
Energy Act
and Climate
Change Act
Incentive
Instruments
Concession
Act
Land
Planning
and
Building
Act
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

19. PROCESSES OF BIOHEAT DEVELOPMENT
Are the hydropower price and selling price of biomass the only obstacles?

20. bioheat supply
investments in
bioheat plants
installed bioheat
plants
profit of bioheat
producers
revenues
bioheat price
+
+
+
+
+
demand for
bioheat comsumed
bioheat
perceived adj
cost
gap
desired
adjustment cost
-
+
-
+
hydropower
price
-
demand for
biomass
+
supply of biomass
selling price of
biomass
price of other
forest products
-
available
technology
wood chips scheme
+
-
+
perceived benefits
of bioheat
gap*
social
acceptance
local
cooperation
organizational
capacity
costs
-
-
+
-
-
+
+
desired
benefits
+
profit for
suppliers
conflicting local
interests
local conflicts
+
+
-
+
stock of forest
elements
fossil fuels
consumed
GHG
emissions
GHG target
achieved
-
+
-
pressure on
politicians -
policy change
+
-
biodiversity&soild
nutrients
carbon capture
capacity
+
+
-
-
machineries in
forests
particulate
emissions
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
B1
B2
B3
B4
R1
R2-
-
+
+
-
R3
R4
R5
B5
B6
R6
+
-
grønnvarme
+
family ties
-
+
fossil fuels
target -
B7
B8
B9
small
onwership
-

21. POSITIVE FEEDBACKS…
…Why have local actors decided to invest in bioheat?
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research 16/02/2016

22. R1 – SOCIAL PERCEPTION…
investments in
bioheat plants
profit of bioheat
producers
revenues +
+
+
+
perceived benefits
of bioheat
gap*
social
acceptance
local
cooperation
organizational
capacity
costs
-
-
+
-
-
+
+
desired
benefits
+
-
-
--
B1
R1
-
grønnvarme
+
family ties
-
small
onwership
-
16/02/2016Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research 22

23. ….PERCEPTIONS AND BIOHEAT D/S
demand for
bioheat
bioheat price
bioheat
supply
profit of bioheat
producers
costs
organizational
capacity
local
cooperation
perceived benefits
of bioheat
-
+
-
revenues of bioheat
prodcuers
+
+
+
-
-
hydropower
price
consumed
bioheat
perceived
adjustment cost
+
-
-
+
+
local
acceptance
+
+
-
R2
B2
B1
R1
desired
benefits -
-
R5
23Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research 16/02/2016

24. COUNTERACTING FEEDBACKS…
… beyond hydropower price and biomass selling price
Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research 16/02/2016

25. R1-R3-B9 - CONFLICTING LOCAL
INTERESTS
16/02/2016 25Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
conflicting local
interests
local conflicts
perceived benefits
of bioenergy
gap
social
acceptance
cooperation
organizational
capacity
costs for bioheat
suppliers
supply of
bioheat
bioheat
price
demand of
bioheat
+
-
-
-
+
+
-
-
-
-
+
profit
+
+
+
machineries in
forestsprice of other
forest products
perceived
adjustment cost
+
+
+
R3
B9
R1
B1
B2

26. B2-B3-B4-R5 – DEMAND FOR BIOMASS
16/02/2016 26Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
demand for
bioheat
demand for
biomass
+
selling price of
biomass
supply of
biomass
profit for
suppliers
perceived benefits
of bioheat
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
hydropower price
-
perceived
adjstment cost
-
bioheat price
-
B3
B4
R1
price of other
forest products
-
available technology
+
organizational
capacity
+
wood chips
scheme
+
profit of bioheat
producers
GHG emissions
machineries in
forests
+
-
-

27. …SOCIAL CAPITAL
16/02/2016 27Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
social
acceptance
local
cooperation
organizational
capacity
costs
-
-
-
+
+
-
grønnvarme
+
family ties
-
small
onwership
-

28. B4-B6-B7-R1 ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES
16/02/2016 28Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
supply of
biomass
machineries in
forests
stock of forest
resources
GHG
emissions
+
-
biodiversity&soil
nutrients
carbon capture
capacity
+
+
-
GHG target
achieved
pressures on
government
perceived benefits
of bioheat
--
-
particulate
emissions
+
+
incentives
+
bioheat
supply
bioheat
price
demand for
bioheat
demand for biomass
price of biomass
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
R1-R4
B4-B6
B4-B8
B5
B4-B7
fossil fuel
consumed
+
bioheat
consumption
-
B1
B2
B3

29. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
16/02/201629Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

30. ‘LIMITS TO GROWTH’ OF SUSTAINABILITY
Source: Senge, P. The Fifth Discipline
Fieldbook, 1994, p. 130-131
16/02/2016Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research 30

31. QUESTIONS
– Should we keep focusing on bioheat development or there are smarter
alternatives?
– Should we believe that it would deliver benefits to rural communities?
– Are there delays in the stakeholders’reactions and other processes that may
be disguising our interpretation of bioheat development and its sustainable
outcomes?
– Alternatively, can other resources that may drive sustainable bioheat
development be strengthened?’
16/02/2016 31Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

32. CONCLUSION: MORE THAN MATERIAL/
ECONOMIC REASONS
– Hydropower price and biomass selling price are
crucial but they are not standing-alone factors
– Social perceptions, social capital and institutions are
driving forces
– Perceptions feed back into bioheat economic/
production activities and environmental processes
either by obstructing or fostering further
developments and putting at risks the long-term
environmental sustainability
16/02/2016 32Bianca Cavicchi – PhD Fellow at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research

33. THANK YOU VERY MUCH
Bianca Cavicchi, PhD Fellow, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research and Centre
for Technology, Innovation and Culture (UiO)
bianca.cavicchi@nibio.no
+447835160629