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Basis points flexible fixed income march 2020pptx
1. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
BASIS POINTS
WITH RANDY STEUART, PORTFOLIO MANAGER OF THE EWING MORRIS FLEXIBLE FIXED INCOME FUND LP
MARCH 2020
2. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
Everyone’s talking about the sharp
market decline…
1
3. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
STOCKS FELL 8% IN ONE MONTH – 13%
FROM THE PEAK…
2
4. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
HIGH YIELD BONDS FELL 1.6% IN ONE
MONTH…
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5. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
WHILE GOVERNMENT BONDS RALLIED.
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6. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL - 5
OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS WE HAD
BECOME QUITE CAUTIOUS ON HIGH YIELD
YIELDS WERE SIMPLY WAY TOO LOW
7. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL - 6
THE BB-RATED HIGH YIELD SPACE LOOKED
PARTICULARLY STRETCHED IN SPREAD TERMS
SPREADS WERE PRICED WITH PRE-FINANCIAL CRISIS OPTIMISM
8. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
We hedged the portfolio by betting
against the spread→ shorting high
yield bonds and buying their
underlying treasury bonds.
7
9. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
If market volatility increased, the
position would pay off. If it didn’t, we
were fine paying away the 2.5-3.5%
per year cost of the hedge.
8
10. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
PORTFOLIO POSITIONING
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*Risk hedges measured as short positions in high yield bonds, equities, loans and investment grade corporates, as a percent of capital.
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Dec-2018 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
Historical Exposure: Risk Hedges* & Governments
Government Bonds Risk Hedges
11. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
THE BET PAID OFF
10
12. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
With much owing to our equity and
credit spread hedges, we were able
to preserve capital in February; a
very positive outcome.
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13. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL - 12
OUR POCKET OF RESET PREFS DID
NOT PERFORM AS WELL…
WE DISPLAY ZPR AS REPRESENTATIVE OF RESET PREF PERFORMANCE
14. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL - 13
…TO HEDGE THIS VERY VOLATILE SPACE WE
ALSO OWNED LONG-TERM RATES
NET-NET, A MODEST LOSS
15. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
Prefs are simply too cheap any way
you look at them.
Take BCE.PR.H for example:
14
16. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
BELL PREFS NOW TROUNCE THE YIELDS
OFFERED BY THEIR NEIGHBOURING
CORPORATE BONDS
15
3.4%
7.1%
4.7%
3.5%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Oct 2014 Today
Yield
Preferred Shares vs Corporate Bond - Relative Value
BCE Floating Rate Perpetual Prefs BCE 4.75% Sr. Notes due 2044
2-3 central bank cuts appears to be priced into the preferred market.
Prefs are simply too beat up.
17. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
Finally, while everyone is focused on
absolute price movements of stock
markets…
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18. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL - 17
THIS IS WHAT REALLY GIVES US CAUSE FOR
CONCERN
THE VOLATILITY MARKET IS FREAKING OUT
19. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
The costs to insure against stock
price declines near post crisis highs.
This does not bode well for equity
and credit markets.
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20. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL - 19
RANDY STEUART - PORTFOLIO MANAGER
► Ewing Morris & Co. Investment Partners
► Joined Ewing Morris & Co. in 2015 as portfolio manager to
launch the Ewing Morris Flexible Fixed Income Fund LP.
► Norrep Capital Management
► Portfolio manager at Norrep Capital Management; managed
$300m in fixed income assets.
► Marret Asset Management
► After graduating UBC, joined Marret Asset Management where
he was a partner and high yield credit analyst.
► University of British Columbia
► Received Bachelor of Commerce degree in Finance from the
Sauder School of Business in 2007.
► Leslie Wong Fellow participating in UBC’s Portfolio
Management Foundation program.
► CFA Charterholder, 2011
Follow me on Linked
21. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
THANK YOU
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Fund Fact Sheet Fund Presentation How We Invest Book
22. - PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL -
CONTACT US
Ewing Morris & Co. Investment Partners Ltd.
1407 Yonge St., Suite 500
Toronto, ON M4T 1Y7
Canada
info@ewingmorris.com
Tel: 416.640.2791
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23. DISCLAIMER
This letter does not constitute an offer to sell units of any Ewing Morris Fund, collectively, “Ewing Morris Funds”. Units of Ewing
Morris Funds are only available to investors who meet investor suitability and sophistication requirements. The Ewing Morris
Funds have flexible investment mandates. We have listed the S&P/TSX Composite Index as the benchmark for the Ewing Morris
Opportunities Fund because it is representative of widely known and followed investment alternative. This benchmark index is
provided for information only and comparisons to benchmarks and indices have limitations. Investing in equity securities is the
primary strategy for the Opportunities Fund, however the Fund does not invest in all, or necessarily any, of the securities that
compose the referenced benchmark indices, and the Fund’s portfolio may contain, among other things, options, short positions
fixed income and other securities, concentrated levels of securities and may employ leverage not found in these indices. As a
result, no market indices are directly comparable to the results of the Fund. We have listed the iShares U.S. High Yield Bond
Index ETF and iShares CDN Corporate Bond Index ETF as benchmarks for the Ewing Morris Flexible Fixed Income Fund
because they are low-cost, index tracking funds; representative of an individual’s opportunity cost in fixed income, and are widely
known and followed fixed income benchmarks. These benchmark indices are provided for information only and comparisons to
benchmarks and indices have limitations. Investing in fixed income securities is the primary strategy for the Fund, however the
Fund does not invest in all, or necessarily any, of the securities that compose the referenced benchmark indices, and the Fund’s
portfolio may contain, among other things, options, short positions and other securities, concentrated levels of securities and
may employ leverage not found in these indices. As a result, no market indices are directly comparable to the results of the
Fund. We have listed the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index as the benchmark for the Dark Horse Fund and Small Cap Strategy
because it is representative of widely known and followed investment alternative. This benchmark index is provided for
information only and comparisons to benchmarks and indices have limitations. Investing in equity securities is the primary
strategy for the Dark Horse Fund and Small Cap Strategy, however the Funds do not invest in all, or necessarily any, of the
securities that compose the referenced benchmark indices, and the Funds’ portfolio may contain, among other things, options,
short positions fixed income and other securities, concentrated levels of securities and may employ leverage not found in these
indices. As a result, no market indices are directly comparable to the results of the Funds. While information prepared in this
report is believed to be accurate, Ewing Morris & Co. Investment Partners Ltd. makes no warranty as to the completeness or
accuracy nor can it accept responsibility for errors in the report. This report is not intended for public use or distribution. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.