- The document appears to contain economic data and models in Persian including variables like housing prices, consumer price index, automobile sales, total real estate sales, residential and commercial real estate sales. - It includes time series data from 1371-1390 (1992-2011) and equations for linear regression models with variables like trend, to forecast items like total real estate sales, automobile sales, and others. - Tables and graphs are included showing historical data and forecasts generated from the linear regression models.

1. ///

2. ///

3. ///
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
hassan_moeen@hotmail.com
moeinnemati@saipacorp.com.
http://info.scss.ir.
.

4. ///

5. ///
.
.
/
(HOUS0PRIC0I)/
.
/.
LOG(HOUS0PRIC0I) = 1.9 + 0.18*TREND
LOG(CPI) = -3.4 + 0.168*TREND
LOG(AUT0REAL0P) = 4.7 - 0.096*TREND
..
.
.
.
.
)()
(.
/
/
.
.
/
.
/
.
(

6. ///
.
.
** 150.7,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
,,
.
71150.7
7279.2
7355.3
7444.1
7544.2
7654.9
7745.7
7848.1
7945.5
8043.6
8141.2
8227.7
8324.7
8424.8
8522.6
8620.0
8718.4
8816.3
8915.0
9014.4
**

7. ///
)houshoushoushous0000rrrr0000pricpricpricpric0000iiii(
)aut0real0p(
)
(
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
HOUS0R0PRIC0I
0
40
80
120
160
72 74 76 78 80 82 84
AUT0REAL0P
0
4,000,000
8,000,000
12,000,000
16,000,000
20,000,000
24,000,000
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86
TOT0REL0SAL
SAI0REAL0SAL
RES0REAL0SAL
IKOREAL0SAL
84 86 88 90
88 90

8. ///
)(
3993733256333163435176
4003013331630027966706
184098536402400128058
285667871951269197203
43431214927013244271798
72970323881433310457578
87898832182910049547110
127425637269483403818160
17407585322491223231086187
24192296724182124181534392
396462811859043188652459859
582923318827151724473774071
684213120028823183864520864
830709028201196066244880347
9794124368070113445154768908
11196017397230721996385024072
14413608509008731799626143559
16321198550726827593468054584
18733220592409732738449535280
22,328,5717,675,0003,572,57111,081,000
1371
1372
1373
1374
1375
1376
1377
1378
1379
1380
1381
1382
1383
1384
1385
1386
1387
1388
1389
139022,328,571

9. ///
)(
(TOT0REL(SAI0REAL0SAL)(RES0REAL0SAL)(IKOREAL0SAL)
9,984,325
814,0758,290,850879,400
8,006,020
666,3206,005,5801,334,120
3,068,300
894,00040,0002,134,300
3,174,078
968,83314,1002,191,144
3,948,291
1,357,000120,4002,470,891
5,613,100
1,837,031256,2313,519,831
5,493,675
2,011,43162,8063,419,438
6,706,611
1,961,547438,9634,306,105
8,289,324
2,534,519582,4905,172,319
10,080,121
2,801,742885,0756,393,300
14,683,807
4,392,2371,180,9819,110,589
18,216,353
5,883,484538,89711,793,972
18,492,246
5,413,195860,50312,218,551
20,767,725
7,050,2981,516,56012,200,868
21,764,720
8,179,3362,987,81110,597,573
20,733,365
7,356,1244,073,4049,303,837
21,512,848
7,597,1454,746,2129,169,491
22,055,673
7,442,2543,728,84610,884,573
22,301,452
7,052,4963,897,43311,351,524
22,328,5717,675,0003,572,57111,081,000
REL0SAL)
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
10,080,121
81
683,807
82
18,216,353
83
18,492,246
84
20,767,725
85
21,764,720
86
5
87
21,512,848
88
22,055,673
1389
22,301,452
90
22,328,571

10. ///
(iko0v0shar)
(res0v0shar)(sai0v0shar)
.:
.
.
.
)/
.(
.
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86
IKO0V0
SAI0V0
RES0V
)
/
88 90
0SHAR
0SHAR
V0SHAR

11. ///
(sai0v0shar)
(res0v0shar)
(iko0v0shar)
8.283.08.8
8.375.016.7
29.11.369.6
30.50.469.0
34.43.062.6
32.74.662.7
36.61.162.2
29.26.564.2
30.67.062.4
27.88.863.4
29.98.062.0
32.33.064.7
29.34.766.1
33.97.358.7
37.613.748.7
35.519.644.9
35.322.142.6
33.716.949.4
31.617.550.9
34.416.049.6
.
.
.
1371
1372
1373
1374
1375
1376
1377
1378
1379
1380
1381
1382
1383
1384
1385
1386
1387
1388
1389
1390

12. ///
:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(ROS0ABO012(
–
.
0
4,000,000
8,000,000
12,000,000
16,000,000
20,000,000
24,000,000
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88
REAL0S0AB012
REAL0S0LES012
TOT0REL0SAL
)012)
88 90

13. ///
.
.
)(.
x 1x 2x 1
x 1 = f (p1.p1x 1p2
.
AUT()YOR(.
:
TOT0REL0SAL=F ( AUT0REAL0P, YOR)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88
SHA0V0LESS012
SHA0V0AB012
.
1,p2,m)
x 2m
)AUT0REAL0P
88 90

14. ///
sab0real
.
pej0real0
.
res0real
.
:
)res0n0pric(
tarif()dol0pric(:
res0n0pric =(0.75*(dol0pric /18300)+ 0.25*tarif0index
)res0REAL0pric(
res0REAL0pric = res0n0pric /CPI
10
()
(.
)AUT0REAL0P(
)TOT0REL0SAL(
.
.
.
.
.
:
real0pric
0pric
real0pric
)tarif0index
index)*70
:
)

15. ///
(CPI)
)()()(
)(
0.0354,49612,412,7645.5
32929.9
0.0355,83714,692,6675.3
28759.2
0.0456,65615,215,5935.1
23456.4
0.0557,48816,123,6084.9
23300.6
0.0658,33117,508,8764.7
29408.4
0.0959,18715,629,3674.6
30510.2
0.1160,05517,836,9444.4
28292.7
0.1360,99419,664,7134.4
26356.8
0.1661,84220,028,4144.3
29416.4
0.1962,51320,518,4614.3
33891.5
0.2163,51522,024,7244.3
29973.9
0.2464,58324,192,3444.2
26365.6
0.2765,65727,246,6834.2
23839.6
0.3266,68027,845,6444.1
21364.8
0.3767,65628,818,0104.1
19936.2
0.4069,06532,114,5374.119699.1
0.4570,47334,315,3864.018442.6
0.5471,50036,542,7923.9
15372.7
0.6772,66234,545,1903.913120.2
0.7473,60035,411,8173.8
12658.3
0.8474,70036,627,5923.711664.3
1.0075,98538,052,7203.6
18300.0
.
:
TOT0REL0SAL = 38300.8*AUT0REAL0P + 0.037*Y0R
)(
691,412
701,420
711,498
721,806
732,667
744,036
754,446
764,782
776,468
788,658
798,188
808,008
818,019
828,323
838,747
849,042
859,226
868,970
879,150
889,782
8910,068
9018300
.

16. ///
.
)()()()(
1,706,75568,270,200-1,691,11567,644,597
2,336,13477,871,133212,461,18382,039,443
3,103,98177,599,52553,448,21986,205,464
3,950,28479,005,68084,634,57092,691,399
4,937,50382,291,717106,127,861102,131,024
6,470,55871,895,089-98,325,49892,505,535
8,633,08178,482,5551611,783,175107,119,768
11,248,21686,524,7381215,592,584119,942,952
13,779,54986,122,181319,817,555123,859,719
16,763,58388,229,384424,370,741128,267,058
19,888,32694,706,314929,376,908139,890,036
24,385,883101,607,8461237,497,940156,241,417
30,897,739114,436,0701448,301,258178,893,549
36,533,485114,167,141459,415,921185,674,755
43,716,921118,153,841572,139,317194,971,128
52,667,841131,669,6031488,719,620221,799,051
61,767,695137,261,5449108,823,869241,830,821
76,959,120142,516,8898141,091,720261,280,963
90,266,581134,726,240-4168,178,213251,012,258
99,578,029134,564,9044192,866,919260,630,972
113,838,556135,522,0905229,830,814273,608,112
136,989,791136,989,7916289,143,591289,143,591
13691,706,755
13702,336,134
13713,103,981
13723,950,284
13734,937,503
13746,470,558
13758,633,081
137611,248,216
137713,779,549
137816,763,583
137919,888,326
138024,385,883
138130,897,739
138236,533,485
138343,716,921
138452,667,841
138561,767,695
138676,959,120
138790,266,581
138899,578,029
1389113,838,556
1390136,989,791

17. ///
.
.
:
TOT0REL0SAL = 14294676 -130646.3*(AUT0REAL0P) + 0.0378
:
)AUT0REAL0P(130646.3
130646.3
.
)YOR(0.0378.
37,800
.
(
20,240,051
748,882)/
()(.
:
:
LOG(AUT0REAL0P) = 4.6 - 0.094 *TREND
/.
)aut0real0p_0()aut0real0pff()aut0real0pf(
.
/)(.
0.0378*Y0R
.
)
(
.
/
var
.

18. ///
).(
y()y0rff()y0rf(.
.
:log(y0r) = 18.1 +0.069*trend
/.
(y0r0pe0ca0ri),
.log(y0r0pe0ca0ri)= 16.4+ 0.053*trend
/)(.
/
. (
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86
AUT0REAL0PFF
AUT0REAL0PF
AUT0REAL0P (Baseline)
AUT0REAL0P
VAR)y0r_0
)
88 90

19. ///
‫ﺗﺎﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮي‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ‬)(U
:
LOG(tot0rel0sal) = 15.04 + 0.10 * TREND
:
80,000,000
120,000,000
160,000,000
200,000,000
240,000,000
280,000,000
320,000,000
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87
Y0R (Baseline)
Y0R
Y0RFF
Y0RF
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94
TOT0REL0SAF ± 2 S.E.
Forecast: TOT0REL0S
Actual: TOT0REL0SAL
Forecast sample: 1369
Included observations:
Root Mean Squared Error
Mean Absolute Error
Mean Abs. Percent Error
Theil Inequality Coefficient
Bias Proportion
Variance Proportion
Covariance Proportion
.
87 88 89 90
SAF
L
9 1395
22
Root Mean Squared Error 1588457.
Mean Absolute Error 1246181.
Mean Abs. Percent Error 18.70075
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.054007
Bias Proportion 0.000109
Variance Proportion 0.017316
Covariance Proportion 0.982574

20. ///
)tot0rel0sa(22,328,571
1,465,000(26,434,321)
(.
/
2/9.
tot0rel)(
S0Q0AB012
)(
S0Q0LE012
)(
T0SAL0QUN
23,779,56714.1299,263,616823,181684,1891,507,371
24,213,20313.9309,737,843878,774656,2631,535,037
24,659,98313.6320,578,668935,833629,4771,565,310
25,120,40913.3331,798,921994,480603,7841,598,264
25,594,99613.1343,411,8831,054,837579,1401,633,977
)(:
0
4,000,000
8,000,000
12,000,000
16,000,000
20,000,000
24,000,000
28,000,000
1372 1374 1376 1378 1380 1382 1384 1386 1388 1390 1392
TOT0REL0SAF
REAL0S0AB012
REAL0S0LES012
TOT0REL0SAL
SAI0REAL0SAL
)1,465,000
1,694,673
rel0sal
139123,779,567
139224,213,203
139324,659,983
139425,120,409
139525,594,996
1392 1394

21. ///
)tot0rel0sa(22,328,571
1,465,000(25,594,996)
(.
/
2/2
(tot0rel0sal)10
(tot0rel0sal).
)(
.
.
..
:
P
dQ P
E .
dP Q
=
Q.
.:
I
dQ I
E .
dI Q
=
:
TOT0REL0SAL = 14294676 -130646.3*(AUT0REAL0P) + 0.0378
:
TOT0REL0SAL = 38300.8*AUT0REAL0P + 0.037*Y0R
)1,465,000
1,633,977
.
)
p
0.0378*Y0R

22. ///
(
.
)(
)()(
6,769,65492.087,202,910
0.49
6,688,52047.0129,220,159
0.73
18,784,97028.2204,633,861
-0.200.41
21,132,87616.8267,135,179
-0.100.48
-0.150.53
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
1372 1374 1376 1378 1380 1382 1384 1386 1388 1390 1392
T0SAL0QUN
S0Q0AB012
S0Q0LE012
S0QUN0SAI
S0QUN0IKO
)
1392 1394

23. ///
:
.
)
.
.
/.
)
.(
/.
/)
(tot0rel0sal)
.
.
(
(.

24. ///