1. Credit Views
London
London, 29 November 2012
Market Analysis
BFA-Bankia offers a benign exit option
Credit to subordinated bondholders
Global Credit • The EC has approved the restructuring plans of the four nationalised
Head of Global Credit Research entities
Javier Serna The initial EUR47bn identified by Oliver Wyman has been reduced to EUR37bn due to capital
javier.serna@bbva.com
+44 207 648 7581 management actions. BFA-Bankia will receive EUR18bn, NCG Banco EUR5.4bn, Catalunya
Banc EUR9bn and Banco de Valencia EUR4.5bn.
Europe
Head of European Credit Research
• Following the announcement by the EC, Bankia unveiled its updated
& Covered Bonds
Agustín Martín strategic plan
agustin.martin@bbva.com
+44 207 397 6087 The group aims to be profitable from 2013 and expects to report a net profit of EUR1.2bn in
2015. Pre-provision income should stand at EUR4.1bn and RoE at 10%. The number of
Guilherme Balieiro
guilherme.balieiro@bbva.com
branches will be downsized by 39% to c. 2,000 and headcount by 28% to c. 14,500.
+44 207 397 6075
• The BFA-Group’s recapitalisation stands at EUR18bn and will be carried out
Financials
David Golin *
by mid-December 2012
david.golin@bbva.com During the call management stated that BFA will be recapitalised by means of ESM bonds.
+44 207 648 7501
However, there is still uncertainty on both the timing and on in which form Bankia will receive
Antonio Vilela * capital from its holding company.
antonio.vilela@bbva.com
+44 207 648 7682 • BFA-Bankia group has disclosed the losses to be imposed on subordinated
Corporates bondholders
Ana Greco
ana.greco@bbva.com
Subordinated bondholders will receive a generous exit offer. Tier 1 debt will be swapped into
+44 207 648 7669 Bankia shares at 61% of par value and Upper Tier 2 at 54%. For LT2 bonds, the group’s
restructuring could permit the exchange into shares at 84% or into a senior BFA zero coupon
Sabrina Ran
sabrina.ran@bbva.com bond.
+44 207 397 6082
• An important step towards the resolution of the Spanish banking crisis, in
Public Sector
Mercedes Ferrer our view
mercedes.ferrer@bbva.com Bear in mind that the largest capital shortfall of the domestic banking system is related to
+44 207 648 7655
BFA-Bankia group. Its imminent recapitalisation and restructuring, with most of its problematic
* Author/s of this report real-estate assets transferred to the bad bank should ensure its solvency and viability. This
should boost confidence in the rest of the sector, in our view.
PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON THE LAST THREE PAGES OF THIS REPORT

2. Credit Views
London, 29 November 2012
The EC approves the restructuring plans
of the four nationalised Spanish banks
The EC has just approved the recapitalisation plans for the four nationalised banks, BFA-Bankia,
NCG, Catalunya Banc and Banco de Valencia (BdV). The disbursement of capital by the ESM to
the FROB will take place in the first half of December. Subsequently, the FROB will inject the
capital into the banks once the necessary corporate operations have been completed.
It is important to highlight that although OW identified a capital shortfall of EUR47bn in these four
entities, the capital needs of the entities will be reduced by the transfer of real estate assets to the
SAREB, the assumption of losses by the subordinated bondholders and restructuring measures
(asset disposals). This will reduce the capital needs of the four entities by EUR10bn to EUR37bn, of
which EUR18bn for BFA-Bankia, EUR5.4bn for NCG, EUR9bn for Catalunya Banc and EUR4.5bn for
BdV.
According to the restructuring plans, by 2017 the balance sheet of each bank will be reduced by
more than 60% compared to 2010. In particular, the banks will refocus their business models on
retail and SME lending in their historical core regions.
Finally it is important to note that if NCG Banco and Catalunya Banc are not sold before 2017, the
entities will be liquidated (orderly resolution plan). This does not apply to BFA-Bankia as it is a
systemic institution. Also, during the call Mr Almunia clearly stated that the liquidation of BdV
would have been more expensive than selling it to CaixaBank despite the support provided for
the transaction.
The EC will disclose the capital requirements for the Group 2 banks, (CEISS, BMN, Caja3 and
Liberbank) on 20 December.
Bankia unveiled its new strategic plan following the EC
announcement
Following the announcement of the European Commission’s approval of the restructuring plans
of the four nationalised banks, Bankia updated its 2012-2015 strategic plan. The key elements of
this plan are set out below:
• A EUR17,959mn injection of state aid (including the EUR4,500mn already injected).
• The group aims to be profitable starting 2013 and to report a net profit of EUR1.2bn in 2015.
• The bank is targeting new lending for c. EUR52bn up to 2015, of which 84% to corporates.
• Divestment of non-core businesses and non-core strategic assets.
• The number of branches should be downsized by 39% (from 3,117 to c. 1,900-2,000) and
headcount by 28% (from 20,589 to 14,500).
• Operating expenses should decline by 26% to EUR1.8bn. The group’s cost-to-income ratio
should therefore stand at c. 40-45% by 2015.
• Average total assets should decline by 20%, pre-provision income should stand at
c.EUR4,100mn.
• RoE of 10%.
• Excess capital above the 9% core Tier 1 target (EBA) of EUR4.5bn. The group’s risk-weighted
assets should contract from EUR166bn to EUR112bn.
PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON THE LAST THREE PAGES OF THIS REPORT
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3. Credit Views
London, 29 November 2012
Mostly developer lending to be transferred to SAREB
As at June 2012, the group had EUR57.2bn of commercial real-estate risk (EUR15.9bn real-estate
assets and EUR41.3bn developer loans). After applying the discount to the transfer price to SAREB
(around 49%), this exposure will have a net value of EUR29.3bn, of which EUR24.6bn will comply
with the eligibility criteria to be transferred to the SAREB. The remaining exposure of EUR4.7bn on
Bankia’s books is therefore negligible.
Figure 1
Reduction of real estate risk after transfer to SAREB (EUR bn)
57.2
Real Estate
Assets Discount due
15.9
to transfer
price to
SAREB
27.9
Real Estate
Developer Assets
41.3 transferred
29.3 to SAREB
24.6
4.7
Total gross Net real estate risk Net real estate risk
real estate risk after discount on on the balance sheet
(Data as of 30 June) transfer to SAREB after transfer to SAREB
Source: BFA Group data
Following the transfer of assets to the bad bank, Bankia’s EUR144.6bn loan portfolio at the
end
en d of 2012 will be mainly retail -focused (62%). Corporates should represent 33% and real -
retail- real-
developers
estate developers will just represent just 2%.
Update on the liquidity profile
The BFA-Bankia group has disclosed that it has EUR45.3bn of debt maturities, of which EUR32.8bn
by 2017. According to the entity, liquid assets stood at EUR12.2bn in October 2012, but taking into
account the capital increase (EUR13.5bn as EUR4.5bn has been already injected) and the
EUR24.6bn government-guaranteed debt issued by SAREB in exchange for assets transferred,
liquid assets will increase to EUR40.3bn. This figure also takes into consideration the EUR10bn
reduction in liquid assets due to the fact that Bankia’s eligible OC would be below 25% as a
consequence of transfer of assets to SAREB. Therefore the issuer will be requested to amortize
retained covered bonds.
Liquid assets will thus cover 89% of the debt maturities or 120% of debt maturities up to 2017.
The entity has a LTD ratio of 164% in June 2012, which should decrease to 143% at the end of
2012e after transferring the real estate assets to SAREB. The group has a target LTD ratio of 120%
in 2015.
PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON THE LAST THREE PAGES OF THIS REPORT
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4. Credit Views
London, 29 November 2012
As regards the group’s reliance on the ECB and its exit strategy, the entity has stated that this
money is currently funding its bond portfolio and the exposure will decline as government
securities mature.
Figure 2
Impact of recapitalisation plan on BFA Group’s liquidity
Liquid assets – Dec 2012e (EUR bn) Wholesale maturities
Liquid assets (October) 12.2 Covered bonds (roll-over capacity) 30.5
SAREB bonds 24.6 Rest of maturities 14.8
Impact of transfer to SAREB on covered bonds (10.0) Total BFA Group maturities 45.3
Capital injection, BFA Group (net)* 13.5 Of which, maturing before end 2017 32.8
Total liquid assets 40.3
* Net of the €4.5 bn already injected
Source: BFA Group data
The recapitalisation will amount to EUR18bn, less than OW’s EUR24.7bn
Oliver Wyman initially estimated a capital shortfall for BFA-Bankia group of EUR24.7bn. The
injection of public aid to be made in December 2012 stands at EUR18bn. As can be seen in Figure
3 below, this is the result of the EUR200mn capital relief derived from the transfer of assets to the
bad bank and the benefit of EUR6.5bn which will come from the liability management transaction.
The EUR4.5bn already injected in September 2012 (after the severe losses that the group
experienced in 1H12 following which the group had to be recapitalised as its capital fell below the
minimum regulatory level) also has to be deducted from the original EUR24.7bn.
During the call the management stated the BFA will be recapitalised in the form of ESM bonds
and before the end of the year. However nothing was said about the type of instrument that will
be utilised to recapitalise Bankia, or the timing.
Figure 3
Group recapitalisation – determination of final capital needs (EUR bn)
BFA Group capital needs – Oliver Wyman adverse scenario 24.7
-/+ Impact on capital needs due -/+ to transfer of assets to SAREB -0.2
-/+ Hybrid instruments -6.5
Capital to be contributed by shareholders 18.0
Of which, injected in September 2012 4.5
Source: BFA Group data
Losses imposed on subordinated bondholders are
less than expected
Subordinated bondholders will receive a generous exit offer, Tier 1 debt will be swapped into
Bankia shares at 61% of par value, and Upper Tier 2 at 54%. LT2 bonds can be either swapped into
shares at a 14% discount or into senior BFA zero coupon bonds with a discount of 1.5% per month
until the maturity date of the LT2 security. In our view, given the discount rate, the second option
would be applied only to low duration BFA bonds.
The process for assessing the haircut to applied to each security is as follows: the economic value
will be determined by discounting a bond’s cash flow by using a discount rate of 20% for Tier 1
securities, (15% UT2 and 10% LT2). 10 points have then been added to the economic value, being
the maximum premium allowed by the Memorandum of Understanding and a further 20 points
as equity will be given instead of cash.
PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON THE LAST THREE PAGES OF THIS REPORT
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5. Credit Views
London, 29 November 2012
This method of calculating the terms of the exchange explains why subordination rights appear
not to have been respected given that the haircut applied to UT2 is higher than applied to the
preference shares. We are in touch with the issuer on this and will pass on any further information
provided.
We have to acknowledge that haircuts applied to hybrids and subordinated debt are less than
either our estimates or those implied by market levels. Management has said that the timing of
the exchange has not been decided yet. In particular, at this stage it is still uncertain if it will be
implemented before or after the recapitalisation.
However, during the conference call, Bankia’s management stated that the dilution risk deriving
from the issue of new shares has already been taken into consideration when the terms of the
exchange were set.
From our conversation with management, we understood that the liability management will be
initially implemented on a voluntary basis. However we recall that according to the
Memorandum of Understanding “steps will be taken to minimise the cost to taxpayers of bank
restructuring. After allocating losses to equity holders, the Spanish authorities will require burden
sharing measures from hybrid capital holders and subordinated debt holders in banks receiving
public capital, including by implementing both voluntary and, where necessary, mandatory
Subordinated Liability Exercises (SLEs). Banks not in need of State aid will be outside the scope of
any mandatory burden sharing exercise. The Banco de España, in liaison with the European
Commission and the EBA, will monitor any operations converting hybrid and subordinated
instruments into senior debt or equity”.
The risk here is therefore that a subsequent mandatory liability management exercise could
follow the initial voluntary one. That said, we expect the participation rate in the voluntary
exercise to be substantial. The distinction here between voluntary or mandatory exchange offer is
important as the second is a restricting credit event and therefore triggers CDS contracts.
PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON THE LAST THREE PAGES OF THIS REPORT
Page 5

6. Credit Views
London, 29 November 2012
Market & Client Strategy
Director
Antonio Pulido
ant.pulido@bbva.com
+34 91 374 31 81
Global Credit
Head of Global Credit Research
Javier Serna
javier.serna@bbva.com
+44 207 648 7581
Credit Europe
Head of European Credit Corporates Americas
Research & Covered Bonds Ana Greco
ana.greco@bbva.com
Agustín Martín +44 207 648 7669
New York
agustin.martin@bbva.com Jose Bernal
+44 207 397 6087 jose.bernal@bbvany.com
Sabrina Ran
sabrina.ran@bbva.com +1 212 728 1561
Guilherme Balieiro
guilherme.balieiro@bbva.com +44 207 397 6082
+44 207 397 6075 Mexico
Public Sector Edgar Cruz
Financials Mercedes Ferrer edgar.cruz@bbva.com
David Golin mercedes.ferrer@bbva.com +52 55 5621 9774
david.golin@bbva.com +44 207 648 7655
+44 207 648 7501
Antonio Vilela
antonio.vilela@bbva.com
+44 207 648 7682
PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON THE LAST THREE PAGES OF THIS REPORT
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7. Credit Views
London, 29 November 2012
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8. Credit Views
London, 29 November 2012
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9. Credit Views
London, 29 November 2012
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