Things to come - Gerry Miller, CIGA / SWIGA. Big Green Deal event, 16th September 2011 Aylesbury

1. Gerry Miller Things to Come

4. Focus over coming years will shift to harder to treat properties including 6.6m with Solid Walls.

5. Involve inherently more complex, diverse, disruptive and costly treatments

6. CC Targets imply that that 2.3m Solid Walls will need to be treated by 2022 - a 10 fold increase

8. Green Deal Ambition Government see Green Deal as a “Game Changer” that will transform the UK’s housing stock 14 million homes to be assisted by 2020 Support 100,000 Jobs by 2015 and 250,000 when activity reaches peak Integrated with an Energy Company Obligation focused on the dual objectives of Fuel Poverty and Carbon savings. Delivered by strong National brands and Local knowledge and innovation

9. Things to Come

11. Increasing levels of insulation activity

12. Deeper inroads into Alleviation of Fuel Poverty

13. Neighbourhood and Housing stock improvements

14. Development of thriving local businesses

15. Creation of local Employment

16. Delivery of Carbon savings

18. Value of market

19. Employment

20. Lifetime CO2 Savings

21. The Cost of Getting it Wrong Getting it wrong could result in a meltdown in current CWI and LI activity and loss of Jobs Failure to develop the necessary investment in expanding Solid Wall capacity Increase in Fuel Poverty over BAU and reduced consumer non fuel spending Failure of Building sector to achieve CC goals.

22. strengths Creates a socially equitable model to drive higher cost energy efficiency improvements. Embodies a holistic ‘whole house’ approach to treating buildings Provides a real opportunity to improve the building stock and local neighbourhoods. Offers help to those in Fuel Poverty Delivers Carbon savings to meet CC targets Carries Government endorsement ECO element will provide some certainty over expected installation rates

23. weaknesses Over half of potential activity likely to be in ATP sector addressed by GD rather than ECO Market basis means no formal GD targets to give investment signals or track performance No planned transition - Construction is like a super-tanker – it takes time to turn and switch capacity into Solid Wall insulation Does not address risk of activity being stifled by building control and planning issues Lack of clarity over ECO GD interaction mechanism ECO represents a significant increase in cost to consumers, possibly £1.8bn pa or 10% of bills

24. opportunities Could create significant opportunities for local businesses Could allow development of a Sustainable free market for Insulation Could catalyse creation of innovative delivery partnerships and mechanisms Market basis could drive innovation and allow differentiation of Products and Services

25. Threats Lack of demand certainty under free market GD Uncertainty over which particular Measures will be promoted in GD packages Exclusion of ‘Able to Pay’ CWI and LI from ECO will damage industry, reduce carbon savings and push up costs suppliers pass to consumers Entry of new players not experienced in building fabric measures could result in poor quality workmanship, seriously damaging consumer confidence Golden Rule could drive cost & performance down, rather than encourage innovation

26. Threats Slow uptake from consumers conditioned to subsidised insulation offers Risk of transaction costs making effective, low cost, measures such as CWI unattractive to providers and consumers. Risk of loan rates leaving no benefit for consumers Fears of default fears concentrating activity in low risk areas Risk of dominance by major players or Financial Institutions sucking value out of supply chain Risk of Energy Companies using ECO funds to control access to GD packages

28. Wide access to ECO funds to allow engagement of all delivery channels and range of local businesses

29. Building Consumer confidence and demand:

30. Communications programme

31. Robust Quality Assurance frameworks from day 1

32. Range of competing propositions

34. SWIGA Framework

36. Provides assurance that work will be carried out correctly, as Framework aims not just to sort out problems - but prevent them

37. Multi tier checks backed by independent surveillance

38. Helps ensure consistent In Situ performance to support Golden Rule

39. Simple, Guarantee covers defects in materials and workmanship and not restricted to installer insolvency

41. Conclusions Green Deal offers the potential to deliver major benefits Must be designed correctly and accessible to range of providers Local Authorities have a natural role to play and CIC construct provides Critical mass to allow effective competition with major Brands. Sharing of best practice Scope for joint Communications Additional route to market for Contractors