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The Criminality of Foreigners in Portugal 11 th  Metropolis International Conference 2006/10/04 Hugo de Seabra & Tiago Santos
The project ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],Research question
Proportion of aliens (2001) 2% 3% 4% 8% 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Residents Crime  suspects Condemned Pre-trail detention Total  inmates
Aliens in Portuguese society ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Crime and aliens per municipality Albufeira 0‰ 20‰ 40‰ 60‰ 80‰ 100‰ 120‰ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percentage of aliens Crimes per thousand inhabitants y = 1,7072x + 17,426 R 2 = 0,1334
No relation model Demographic dynamism Secularization Economic Development Poverty Urbanity % of aliens Crimes per 1000 inhabitantes Standardized estimates: Chi-square = 11,464 Degrees of freedom = 14 P = 0,649 0,29 0,20 0,32 0,26 0,51 0,17 -0,20 0 ,0 0 0,23 0,40 Many banks, current expenses, pharmacies per capita, etc. The population grows, few elderly, many active, etc. Many unreligious people, births out of wedlock, divorce, etc. Great populational density, many doctors per capita, much credit per capita, high purchase power, etc. Many beneficiaries of the Social integration Income, high unemployment and population  depletion .
Crime’ and aliens per municipality Albufeira -20‰ -10‰ 0‰ 10‰ 20‰ 30‰ 40‰ 50‰ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percentage of aliens Residual of crimes per thousand inhabitants y = 0,151x - 0,2286 R 2 = 0,0016
Criminality pyramid Real Police  knowledge Trailed Condemned Effective inmate Presumed   innocent Criminality in the  strict sense
Data sources and limitations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Pre-trail detained suspects Article 202 of Penal Procedure Code Article 204 of Penal Procedure Code   Higher rates of  pre-trail suspects detention for Aliens
Suspects in pre-trail detention 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Acquittals after  pre-trail detention 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Acquittal rates 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Condemnation rates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Socio-demographic Characterization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Residing in a foreign country 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Main crimes that are in the origin of condemnations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Condemnation penalties 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fine Prison penalties Others
Prison condemnations 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Prison substituted by a fine Suspense prison Suspense prison with special rules Effective imprisonment
Actual length of imprisionment 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average length of imprisionment in months Portuguese Aliens
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Crimes that lead to actual prison sentences
Major crimes that lead to effective prison condemnations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rate of effective prison condemnation for drug trafficking 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Reasons for the over-representation Low quality of official defenses Some prejudice in the justice system Higher proportion of Aliens within the prison population Type of crime committed
Research question ,[object Object],[object Object]
Crude criminality rates 7‰ 11‰ 0‰ 5‰ 10‰ 15‰ Portuguese Aliens
Standardizing Male Female 13235 0,02525 524156 6% 12272 196174 429716 12272 8378888 196174 6% 8378888 x 524156 12272 196174 8378888 429716 + + 0,02525 0,02525 524156 x 13235 10857 303 85852 - 8378888 100% 2112 56547 Total 61 0,00016 390170 5% 4 195 9135 1270877 60 e + 168 0,00058 291421 3% 8 359 6823 628762 50-59 719 0,00120 598388 7% 24 846 14010 709732 40-49 1727 0,00167 1032038 12% 51 1244 24163 749929 30-39 1849 0,00192 964042 12% 43 1196 22571 623532 22-29 798 0,00160 499383 6% 22 660 11692 414963 16-21 520 0,00168 310000 4% 19 1598 7258 957139 60 e + 1804 0,00566 318927 4% 58 3214 7467 570916 50-59 9994 0,01221 818353 10% 261 8177 19160 671750 40-49 26227 0,01857 1412427 17% 657 13421 33069 725077 30-39 28750 0,02357 1219584 15% 662 14780 28554 626495 22-29 303 10857 16-21 Aliens Port. Aliens Port. Port. con. with aliens Structure Condem. / Resid. Port.resi. with aliens structure Aliens  structure Condemnations Resident
Standardized criminality rates 11‰ 11‰ 0‰ 5‰ 10‰ 15‰ Portuguese Aliens 7‰ Crude crimilaity rates
[object Object]
The Criminality of Foreigners in Portugal 11 th  Metropolis International Conference 2006/10/04 Hugo de Seabra & Tiago Santos

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2006.10.04

  • 1. The Criminality of Foreigners in Portugal 11 th Metropolis International Conference 2006/10/04 Hugo de Seabra & Tiago Santos
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Proportion of aliens (2001) 2% 3% 4% 8% 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Residents Crime suspects Condemned Pre-trail detention Total inmates
  • 5.
  • 6. Crime and aliens per municipality Albufeira 0‰ 20‰ 40‰ 60‰ 80‰ 100‰ 120‰ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percentage of aliens Crimes per thousand inhabitants y = 1,7072x + 17,426 R 2 = 0,1334
  • 7. No relation model Demographic dynamism Secularization Economic Development Poverty Urbanity % of aliens Crimes per 1000 inhabitantes Standardized estimates: Chi-square = 11,464 Degrees of freedom = 14 P = 0,649 0,29 0,20 0,32 0,26 0,51 0,17 -0,20 0 ,0 0 0,23 0,40 Many banks, current expenses, pharmacies per capita, etc. The population grows, few elderly, many active, etc. Many unreligious people, births out of wedlock, divorce, etc. Great populational density, many doctors per capita, much credit per capita, high purchase power, etc. Many beneficiaries of the Social integration Income, high unemployment and population depletion .
  • 8. Crime’ and aliens per municipality Albufeira -20‰ -10‰ 0‰ 10‰ 20‰ 30‰ 40‰ 50‰ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percentage of aliens Residual of crimes per thousand inhabitants y = 0,151x - 0,2286 R 2 = 0,0016
  • 9. Criminality pyramid Real Police knowledge Trailed Condemned Effective inmate Presumed innocent Criminality in the strict sense
  • 10.
  • 11. Pre-trail detained suspects Article 202 of Penal Procedure Code Article 204 of Penal Procedure Code Higher rates of pre-trail suspects detention for Aliens
  • 12. Suspects in pre-trail detention 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  • 13. Acquittals after pre-trail detention 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  • 14. Acquittal rates 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  • 15. Condemnation rates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  • 16.
  • 17. Residing in a foreign country 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  • 18.
  • 19. Condemnation penalties 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fine Prison penalties Others
  • 20. Prison condemnations 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Prison substituted by a fine Suspense prison Suspense prison with special rules Effective imprisonment
  • 21. Actual length of imprisionment 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average length of imprisionment in months Portuguese Aliens
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Rate of effective prison condemnation for drug trafficking 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  • 25. Reasons for the over-representation Low quality of official defenses Some prejudice in the justice system Higher proportion of Aliens within the prison population Type of crime committed
  • 26.
  • 27. Crude criminality rates 7‰ 11‰ 0‰ 5‰ 10‰ 15‰ Portuguese Aliens
  • 28. Standardizing Male Female 13235 0,02525 524156 6% 12272 196174 429716 12272 8378888 196174 6% 8378888 x 524156 12272 196174 8378888 429716 + + 0,02525 0,02525 524156 x 13235 10857 303 85852 - 8378888 100% 2112 56547 Total 61 0,00016 390170 5% 4 195 9135 1270877 60 e + 168 0,00058 291421 3% 8 359 6823 628762 50-59 719 0,00120 598388 7% 24 846 14010 709732 40-49 1727 0,00167 1032038 12% 51 1244 24163 749929 30-39 1849 0,00192 964042 12% 43 1196 22571 623532 22-29 798 0,00160 499383 6% 22 660 11692 414963 16-21 520 0,00168 310000 4% 19 1598 7258 957139 60 e + 1804 0,00566 318927 4% 58 3214 7467 570916 50-59 9994 0,01221 818353 10% 261 8177 19160 671750 40-49 26227 0,01857 1412427 17% 657 13421 33069 725077 30-39 28750 0,02357 1219584 15% 662 14780 28554 626495 22-29 303 10857 16-21 Aliens Port. Aliens Port. Port. con. with aliens Structure Condem. / Resid. Port.resi. with aliens structure Aliens structure Condemnations Resident
  • 29. Standardized criminality rates 11‰ 11‰ 0‰ 5‰ 10‰ 15‰ Portuguese Aliens 7‰ Crude crimilaity rates
  • 30.
  • 31. The Criminality of Foreigners in Portugal 11 th Metropolis International Conference 2006/10/04 Hugo de Seabra & Tiago Santos