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MEXICO| IMF boost for Mexico1
2
On 22 November the International Monetary Fund released projections3
concerning Mexico’s economy in which it has downgraded its growth forecasts.4
For this year, it has revised the rate from 2.5% to 2.1%, and for 2017 it has5
lowered its forecast from 2.6% to 2.2%. The Mexican economy faces numerous6
external threats, notably the potential for a seismic shift in its economic7
relationship with the US in the wake of Republican candidate Donald Trump’s8
victory in 8 November’s Presidential election. Trump has repeatedly criticised9
trade deals with Mexico that he feels damage US jobs, and has also promised to10
cancel the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and introduce11
tariffs on Mexican goods. Dora Iakova, the IMF’s chief of operations in Mexico,12
highlighted the potential rise in US interest rates as well as the fall in the price13
and production of oil as further reasons for the more pessimistic view on the14
growth of the Mexican economy.15
16
However, the IMF also praised the Mexican economy, and it was noted that it17
has “successfully navigated” troublesome international conditions so far. Its18
banking system coped well with stress tests, and the IMF stated that Mexico has19
a shock absorber in the form of US$170bn of IMF funds as well as a credit line20
of US$86bn. However, it did also warn that it had no plan in place for a21
systematic banking crisis. The report also stated that employment rates are22
relatively low and steady, and that wages are rising. The fiscal deficit is falling in23
line with the government’s aim to have deficit of no more than 2.5% of GDP by24
2018, a target it is on course to achieve. Mexico’s credit growth is strong at 16%,25
and the IMF furthermore identified Mexico’s huge potential workforce growth in26
the form of women. Over half of women, at 55%, work at home, and changing27
this represents an opportunity for the Mexican economy.28
29
The IMF report contained a number of recommendations for the government to30
ensure future stability. It praised the government’s structural reform programme31
and urged this to continue. It stated that it needed to improve judicial32
performance and independence. Further, it stressed the urgent need for an anti-33
corruption system to counter the problem that is still endemic to the Mexican34
system. It recommended the government introduce anti-money laundering35
legislation at the earliest opportunity. Another important recommendation is to36
raise pension contributions to ensure that in the long-term there will not be37
problems with social spending.38
39
José Antonio Meade, the Mexican Secretary of Finance, described the report on40
22 November as “important” and stated that the government would take its41
recommendations and contents seriously, and that the government Economic42
Packet 2017 could incorporate some of the recommendations.43
44
45
46
Sidebar: Interest rate warning47
48
So far in 2016 Mexico has raised its interest rates four times, with a current rate49
of 5.25%. However, in its report the IMF urged Mexico to halt any potential50
rises. It stated that pressure on consumer prices due to a weak peso had not51
materialised and so for the time being, interest rates should remain where they52
are.53
54
55
BOLIVIA| Renewables growth56
57
On 22 November Bolivia’s minister for Hydrocarbons and Energy, Luis58
Sánchez, announced that three new wind farms will be constructed in El Dorado,59
Warnes and San Julián in Santa Cruz department, in the east of the country. The60
three sites will produce 93MW of energy.61
62
The overall cost of the project will reach US$192.8m, and will be financed partly63
by contributions and investment from Denmark. The Scandinavian country’s64
government will donate US$15.8m to the project, whilst the Danish company65
Danida Business Finance (DBF) will provide US$113.3m in funding. The rest of66
the cost, totalling US$63.6m, will be covered by Bolivia’s national energy67
company, the Empresa Nacional de Electricidad Bolivia (Ende), according to the68
minister. The Danish international engineering consults PEM Consult will69
oversee the project. The site at Warnes will produce 21MW, whilst the other sites70
at San Julián and El Dorado will both generate 36MW of energy. The total71
amount that they will generate for the country is equivalent to 5% of the energy72
infrastructure that was constructed in 2015, and would cover 4% of Bolivia’s73
energy output for the same year. According to Sánchez, the project will reduce74
the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by 142,500 tonnes.75
He went on to say that renewable projects such as these are crucial to Bolivia’s76
energy needs as well as in the fight against climate change, and highlighted the77
fact that since 2005, renewable output has gone from zero to 545MW.78
79

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Andean Trends

  • 1. MEXICO| IMF boost for Mexico1 2 On 22 November the International Monetary Fund released projections3 concerning Mexico’s economy in which it has downgraded its growth forecasts.4 For this year, it has revised the rate from 2.5% to 2.1%, and for 2017 it has5 lowered its forecast from 2.6% to 2.2%. The Mexican economy faces numerous6 external threats, notably the potential for a seismic shift in its economic7 relationship with the US in the wake of Republican candidate Donald Trump’s8 victory in 8 November’s Presidential election. Trump has repeatedly criticised9 trade deals with Mexico that he feels damage US jobs, and has also promised to10 cancel the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and introduce11 tariffs on Mexican goods. Dora Iakova, the IMF’s chief of operations in Mexico,12 highlighted the potential rise in US interest rates as well as the fall in the price13 and production of oil as further reasons for the more pessimistic view on the14 growth of the Mexican economy.15 16 However, the IMF also praised the Mexican economy, and it was noted that it17 has “successfully navigated” troublesome international conditions so far. Its18 banking system coped well with stress tests, and the IMF stated that Mexico has19 a shock absorber in the form of US$170bn of IMF funds as well as a credit line20 of US$86bn. However, it did also warn that it had no plan in place for a21 systematic banking crisis. The report also stated that employment rates are22 relatively low and steady, and that wages are rising. The fiscal deficit is falling in23 line with the government’s aim to have deficit of no more than 2.5% of GDP by24 2018, a target it is on course to achieve. Mexico’s credit growth is strong at 16%,25 and the IMF furthermore identified Mexico’s huge potential workforce growth in26 the form of women. Over half of women, at 55%, work at home, and changing27 this represents an opportunity for the Mexican economy.28 29 The IMF report contained a number of recommendations for the government to30 ensure future stability. It praised the government’s structural reform programme31 and urged this to continue. It stated that it needed to improve judicial32 performance and independence. Further, it stressed the urgent need for an anti-33 corruption system to counter the problem that is still endemic to the Mexican34 system. It recommended the government introduce anti-money laundering35 legislation at the earliest opportunity. Another important recommendation is to36 raise pension contributions to ensure that in the long-term there will not be37 problems with social spending.38 39 José Antonio Meade, the Mexican Secretary of Finance, described the report on40 22 November as “important” and stated that the government would take its41 recommendations and contents seriously, and that the government Economic42 Packet 2017 could incorporate some of the recommendations.43 44
  • 2. 45 46 Sidebar: Interest rate warning47 48 So far in 2016 Mexico has raised its interest rates four times, with a current rate49 of 5.25%. However, in its report the IMF urged Mexico to halt any potential50 rises. It stated that pressure on consumer prices due to a weak peso had not51 materialised and so for the time being, interest rates should remain where they52 are.53 54 55 BOLIVIA| Renewables growth56 57 On 22 November Bolivia’s minister for Hydrocarbons and Energy, Luis58 Sánchez, announced that three new wind farms will be constructed in El Dorado,59 Warnes and San Julián in Santa Cruz department, in the east of the country. The60 three sites will produce 93MW of energy.61 62 The overall cost of the project will reach US$192.8m, and will be financed partly63 by contributions and investment from Denmark. The Scandinavian country’s64 government will donate US$15.8m to the project, whilst the Danish company65 Danida Business Finance (DBF) will provide US$113.3m in funding. The rest of66 the cost, totalling US$63.6m, will be covered by Bolivia’s national energy67 company, the Empresa Nacional de Electricidad Bolivia (Ende), according to the68 minister. The Danish international engineering consults PEM Consult will69 oversee the project. The site at Warnes will produce 21MW, whilst the other sites70 at San Julián and El Dorado will both generate 36MW of energy. The total71 amount that they will generate for the country is equivalent to 5% of the energy72 infrastructure that was constructed in 2015, and would cover 4% of Bolivia’s73 energy output for the same year. According to Sánchez, the project will reduce74 the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by 142,500 tonnes.75 He went on to say that renewable projects such as these are crucial to Bolivia’s76 energy needs as well as in the fight against climate change, and highlighted the77 fact that since 2005, renewable output has gone from zero to 545MW.78 79