1. Assessing the economic contribution and potential of East LondonResearch commissioned by London Thames Gateway Development Corporation Presentation to Thames Gateway London Partnership March 2011 March 2011

2. The study area

3. 3 The study area

4. 4 A prime location… Unique area of opportunity and regeneration in East London Relatively underdeveloped area, earmarked by numerous strategic plans as an area of opportunity Defined by 16 wards, lying within the London Boroughs of Greenwich, Hackney, Newham and Tower Hamlets Home to almost 200,000 people – 4.2% of London’s total population Despite strong economic growth in past 20 years, the area still includes some of the most deprived areas in the country

5. 5 In a world class region… London’s 7.8m people produces 21% of the UK’s GVA (£232bn) and leads the world in a wide range of financial and professional services activities 1.6m people work in financial and business services sectors, accounting for over 40% of the city’s GVA In 2007/08 the city ran a ‘fiscal surplus’ of £25.9bn and provided 23% of the UK’s corporation tax returns Home to premium universities within the UK, with international reputations 21% of UK graduates from the Russell Group work in London as their first destination

6. 6 Which out-performs the national average… Index of total employment, London & UK (1991=100) Source: Oxford Economics London has outperformed the UK average since the mid 1990s

7. 7 High value business services driven growth in London… Employment change, London & UK (1998 - 2008) Source: Oxford Economics

8. 8 Which has translated into faster GVA growth… Index of total GVA, London & UK (1991=100) Source: Oxford Economics

9. 9 East London has outperformed both London & UK… Index of total GVA, East London & London (1991=100) Index of total employment, East London & London (1991=100) Source: Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics From 1991 to 2000 East London provided 1 in 8 of the net new jobs created in the region (or 12% of net job creation). From 2000 to 2008 East London accounted for just under 1 job in every 4 net new jobs created in London, mostly in financial and business services

10. 10 The financial services sector has driven growth… Source: Oxford Economics Note: yellow shading highlights the strongest performance

11. 11 An area of major investment… Much investment is underway or planned for East London… Olympics are driving major development in four adjacent areas – Hackney, Wick and Fish Island, northern Olympic fringe, Stratford town centre and Stratford high street, each having masterplans drawn up to ensure development connected to Olympic legacy By 2013 LTGDC will have invested £163m in Olympic Fringe and Lower Lea Valley Investments in land assembly, public realm and economic development will ultimately lead to 15,000 homes and 10,000 jobs in addition to Olympic Park and Stratford City In Stratford, Westfield is a 1.9m sq ft retail centre as a first phase of 13m sq ft of mixed use development, including 4.9, sq ft offices as well as homes, hotels and cinemas South of Olympic Park – significant investment from Tesco, Inter Ikea and Bouygues will deliver new mixed use ‘places’ all linked by the Lea River Park Greenwich Peninsula – 4m sq ft commercial development of which 3.5m sq ft is office space; 10,000 residential units will also be constructed between 2009 and 2021 Canary Wharf will remain a key driver for both change in East London and development opportunities – plans for an extension at Wood Wharf, providing 4m sq ft of commercial space and 1,700 homes High speed rail and Crossrail services in addition to underground upgrades will support connectivity

12. Looking forward

13. 13 Global and UK economiesreturning togrowth… The economic environment is very different and has implications for future growth…

14. 14 A tighter public spending environment… Restricted access to credit and tighter fiscal policy will put pressure on the private sector to drive growth…

15. 15 London expected to lead the way… Global investment helps drive London’s international FBS

16. 16 Baseline employment to continue rising… Index of total employment, East London & London (2003=100) …though East London is expected to slow going forward and be more in line with the regions growth. NB baseline forecasts are based on sectoral prospects rather than local investments Source: Oxford Economics Note: The data in the table above refers to the East London study area as defined using the 2003 ward boundaries to define the East London

17. 17 Driven by financial and business services… Future employment growth in London (and East London) expected to be driven by financial and business services Source: Oxford Economics Note: using the 2003 ward boundaries to define East London Note: highlighted cells show where each sector is expected to perform best

18. The potential

20. 21 Again a financial and business services story Employment change for the East London (2009 to 2030) Source: Oxford Economics Note: Using the 2003 ward boundaries to define the East London Other personal services” include a range of activities such as leisure, hairdressing etc. In addition retail is included with “Distribution” Cells shaded yellow highlight notably stronger positive growth in the scenario

21. 22 …potential for additional GVA GVA forecasts for East London (2003 to 2030) Creating an additional £13.4bn in GVA by 2030 for East London London could benefit from an additional £21.4bn in GVA Source: Oxford Economics Note: using the 2003 ward boundaries to define East London