A minority of people spread COVID

1. A TINY MINORITY ARE MOST OF THE RISK. BUT MAYBE THEY SHOULDN'T BE THE FOCUS
OF RESPONSE?
New research from the UK--worth reading more than just the top line, BTW--shows
that most of the risk of spreading covid-19 comes from a very small minority of
people who don't anywhere near follow the distancing (etc) guidelines. Interestingly,
this was NOT, in the research report connected to other things like gender, age,
ethnicity etc.
https://www.bi.team/blogs/a-small-number-of-people-account-for-a-large-amount-
of-coronavirus-risk/
This pattern 'uneven impact' is very widespread in society. I've studied 'problem
behaviours' over the years and it is important to say that this pattern--the vast
majority generate a tiny slice of the problem, the small minority generate a huge
slice--is very common. Most drink driving issues arise from a persistent (alcoholic)
minority; most harms from illicit drug use are generated by a small minority of heavy
users; most everyday property crime is committed by a small groups of persistent
offenders and so forth.
The policy challenge here is great. The obvious, but in the end unhelpful solutions
tend to fall into 2, related camps: blanket prohibitions in the (vain) hope that this will
constrain the problem folk and focused targeting of the deviants. The latter is a bit
more useful but requires lots of effort and 'eternal vigilance'.
A counter-intuitive response, which is harder to sell, is a bit different. I’ll use a real-
world example to illustrate it.
A very long time ago, I started working in a small way with the RAAF. I ran sone
educational sessions for SQNLDRs on an Air Force base. Routinely, I’d be invited to
stay for lunch with the host syndicate. Lunch always involved wine—in moderate but
not trivial quantities. Over the years, the norm changed completely and alcohol
became unacceptable. The impact of this was interesting: I heard on several
occasions how this had been relatively easily accepted by most people and had also
curbed the drinking patterns of the problem drinkers.
How so? Well, when ‘anyone might have a drink’ the person who has several is
relatively invisible in the bar. But when the norm is orange juice, alcohol stands out
like the proverbial appendages on a male dog. Thus, by changing what the majority
do, I influence what the minority does… Moreover, the minority who cannot or will
not conform is not only smaller, but also easier to see and to constrain.
I’m not yet sure how this applies with covid-19. (If I did I’d be famous.) But as we
consider long term policy questions and controls, and wrestle with break out like VIC
had, it might be important to muse on the sorts of things that work and those that
(despite their attraction) are not so successful.