This research proposal explores the factors that motivate banks to use financial derivatives and how derivatives regulation has changed the environment in the EU and US. The proposal provides a literature review on the history and types of derivatives such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It discusses how derivatives are used for hedging, risk management, speculation, and price discovery. The proposal also reviews how derivatives were unregulated in OTC markets and were implicated in financial crises, leading to reforms for more transparency and oversight. The mixed methods study will analyze quantitative data on bank derivative use integrated with qualitative interviews to understand motivations in light of regulatory changes.
This document provides a theoretical analysis of factors that can trigger a financial crisis based on the works of John Maynard Keynes and Hyman Minsky. It discusses two key changes in deregulated financial markets: 1) growing uncertainty in liberalized markets, and 2) financial innovations that generate liquidity beyond bank credit. These changes, along with debt financing and securitization, can lead markets from a state of hedging to speculation and eventually "Ponzi finance" where borrowing is needed to pay off existing liabilities. The global financial crisis of 2008 is analyzed as a potential example of a Minsky moment where extended speculation triggered a collapse in confidence and asset values.
1.[1 15]study of bric countries in the financial turnmoilAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the dynamic relationship between emerging BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) during financial turmoil from 2008-2011. It aims to quantify the interrelationships between stock market indices of these countries, using the IBOV, RTS, S&P Nifty, and SSE Composite Index. Statistical tests show the indices are non-normally distributed but stationary. Granger causality tests examine causal relationships between the BRIC country indices. Previous literature has found mixed evidence on cointegration between developed and emerging markets, and that BRIC countries have become more integrated globally in recent decades.
The main motivation of this study is to investigate the relationship between indicator of financial development and individual’s daily decision regarding their final consumption and saving in a selected sample of middle east and north African (MENA) countries. The method which used for this analysis is pooled regression and the data collected from ten different countries (Qatar, Jordon, Oman, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Pakistan) during 1995 and 2015. Finally, by analyzing the Stata results it will be clear that which variable has positive effect on the share of final consumption expenditure in GDP and which one has the negative effect and the significant and insignificant of these effects.
This thesis explores using econometric time series models to construct actively managed commodity portfolios. It reviews literature on commodities as an asset class and their benefits for diversification and inflation hedging. The document outlines momentum and term structure strategies, and introduces autoregressive, moving average, heteroskedasticity, and model averaging models to generate signals for a double sort methodology to improve risk-adjusted returns compared to naive momentum. Empirical results will be presented for full sample and pre/post crisis periods.
This document discusses international stock market co-movements during the late 2000s recession. It reviews literature on international portfolio diversification benefits when stock market correlations are low. There are two hypotheses for co-movement characteristics: "heat waves" referring to country-specific effects, and "meteor showers" referring to effects that transmit across markets. Previous research found increasing interdependencies during crises. This research aims to examine co-movement and interdependencies among Asia Pacific emerging market indices during the late 2000s recession to determine implications for international diversification strategies.
The key demographic changes happening in Japan are population decrease and aging. There are two main reasons for this:
1. Low fertility rates. As fewer babies are being born each year, this directly leads to a decreasing population over time as well as population aging since there are fewer young people being added.
2. Increased life expectancy. While longer lifespans are a positive development, it also means that more of the population is surviving into old age, leading to population aging.
Together, low fertility rates and increased longevity have reduced Japan's population growth and caused its population to rapidly age over the past few decades. With very little immigration to offset these trends, Japan is experiencing both a shrinking and graying population. Addressing low
This paper focuses on the measurement of a contemporaneous currency crisis. The analysis covers 14 "emerging" or "transforming" economies that experienced episodes of currency crises over the last decade. It adds to well-known examples relatively littleknown evidence on the crisis depth in some of the CIS countries. Following the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition of a currency crisis, the emphasis is primarily put on the examination of changes in relative reserves, exchange rates, and real interest rates during periods of exchange rate pressure. Other measures of the depth of a currency crisis as well as measures of external vulnerability are also discussed. The findings support the adequacy of the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition in analyzing crisis developments in emerging economies.
Authored by: Malgorzata Jakubiak
Published in 2000
This document provides a theoretical analysis of factors that can trigger a financial crisis based on the works of John Maynard Keynes and Hyman Minsky. It discusses two key changes in deregulated financial markets: 1) growing uncertainty in liberalized markets, and 2) financial innovations that generate liquidity beyond bank credit. These changes, along with debt financing and securitization, can lead markets from a state of hedging to speculation and eventually "Ponzi finance" where borrowing is needed to pay off existing liabilities. The global financial crisis of 2008 is analyzed as a potential example of a Minsky moment where extended speculation triggered a collapse in confidence and asset values.
1.[1 15]study of bric countries in the financial turnmoilAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the dynamic relationship between emerging BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) during financial turmoil from 2008-2011. It aims to quantify the interrelationships between stock market indices of these countries, using the IBOV, RTS, S&P Nifty, and SSE Composite Index. Statistical tests show the indices are non-normally distributed but stationary. Granger causality tests examine causal relationships between the BRIC country indices. Previous literature has found mixed evidence on cointegration between developed and emerging markets, and that BRIC countries have become more integrated globally in recent decades.
The main motivation of this study is to investigate the relationship between indicator of financial development and individual’s daily decision regarding their final consumption and saving in a selected sample of middle east and north African (MENA) countries. The method which used for this analysis is pooled regression and the data collected from ten different countries (Qatar, Jordon, Oman, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Pakistan) during 1995 and 2015. Finally, by analyzing the Stata results it will be clear that which variable has positive effect on the share of final consumption expenditure in GDP and which one has the negative effect and the significant and insignificant of these effects.
This thesis explores using econometric time series models to construct actively managed commodity portfolios. It reviews literature on commodities as an asset class and their benefits for diversification and inflation hedging. The document outlines momentum and term structure strategies, and introduces autoregressive, moving average, heteroskedasticity, and model averaging models to generate signals for a double sort methodology to improve risk-adjusted returns compared to naive momentum. Empirical results will be presented for full sample and pre/post crisis periods.
This document discusses international stock market co-movements during the late 2000s recession. It reviews literature on international portfolio diversification benefits when stock market correlations are low. There are two hypotheses for co-movement characteristics: "heat waves" referring to country-specific effects, and "meteor showers" referring to effects that transmit across markets. Previous research found increasing interdependencies during crises. This research aims to examine co-movement and interdependencies among Asia Pacific emerging market indices during the late 2000s recession to determine implications for international diversification strategies.
The key demographic changes happening in Japan are population decrease and aging. There are two main reasons for this:
1. Low fertility rates. As fewer babies are being born each year, this directly leads to a decreasing population over time as well as population aging since there are fewer young people being added.
2. Increased life expectancy. While longer lifespans are a positive development, it also means that more of the population is surviving into old age, leading to population aging.
Together, low fertility rates and increased longevity have reduced Japan's population growth and caused its population to rapidly age over the past few decades. With very little immigration to offset these trends, Japan is experiencing both a shrinking and graying population. Addressing low
This paper focuses on the measurement of a contemporaneous currency crisis. The analysis covers 14 "emerging" or "transforming" economies that experienced episodes of currency crises over the last decade. It adds to well-known examples relatively littleknown evidence on the crisis depth in some of the CIS countries. Following the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition of a currency crisis, the emphasis is primarily put on the examination of changes in relative reserves, exchange rates, and real interest rates during periods of exchange rate pressure. Other measures of the depth of a currency crisis as well as measures of external vulnerability are also discussed. The findings support the adequacy of the Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1994) definition in analyzing crisis developments in emerging economies.
Authored by: Malgorzata Jakubiak
Published in 2000
This document summarizes a research paper that develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze systemic risk in the banking sector. The key aspects of the model are that it includes banks that engage in maturity transformation by issuing non-state contingent debt, and the banks are exposed to risks in capital markets that can affect their solvency. The model shows that individual banks in a competitive system will take on excessive systemic risk due to pecuniary externalities, leading to a higher crisis probability than the socially optimal level. The document then discusses using prompt corrective action (PCA) policies to reduce crisis risk by strengthening bank capital requirements.
Mla style essay one aspect of the current economic crisisCustomEssayOrder
This document discusses inflation as an economic crisis affecting the world. It defines inflation as a general increase in prices of goods and services over time, forcing consumers to pay more for less. The document then examines problems caused by inflation like a loss of monetary value, inability to predict future inflation, and shortage of goods. It also explores causes of inflation such as excess money printing, national debts, rising production costs, and wars. Finally, the document proposes solutions like fiscal and monetary policy controls, and reducing international debt dependence, to curb inflation reoccurrence.
Traditional methods to measure volatility case study of selective developed ...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes stock market volatility across developed and emerging markets from 1997-2009 using traditional measures like standard deviation. Key findings include:
- Returns for all markets showed non-normality, with emerging markets exhibiting more non-normality and higher kurtosis, indicating more peaked return distributions.
- Volatility, as measured by standard deviation, was highest for Turkey, Brazil, and China - all emerging markets. However, some developed markets were found to be more volatile than some emerging markets, suggesting volatility is not unique to emerging markets.
- The analysis concludes volatility should be measured using other methods like extreme value analysis due to the heavy-tailed distributions found in emerging market returns. This could provide better guidance for
Foundations of Financial Sector Mechanisms and Economic Growth in Emerging Ec...iosrjce
In this paper, we try to uncover the economic foundations of financial sector development and its
impacts on accelerating economic growth in the given context of emerging economies. We theorize and
empirically test a causally-motivated relationship among economic growth and related key financial sector
variables pertinent to this problem. We accomplish this by analyzing a 20 year panel-data constructed for 30
countries falling within the categorization of an ‘emerging economy’. We estimate the appropriate statistical
models along with related diagnostic tests. Finally, we comment on the strengths and weaknesses of our
approach and we try to explicate the economic rationale and justification for our formulation and the evidences
that follow
Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in emerging marketsAlexander Decker
This research paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in Kenya from 2000 to 2009. Using cointegration analysis and an error correction model, the study finds that income level, banking sector development, and stock market liquidity are important predictors of development of the Nairobi Stock Exchange. However, macroeconomic stability was not found to be a significant determinant. The paper provides background on the history and growth of the Nairobi Stock Exchange and reviews previous literature on factors that influence stock market development in emerging markets.
öRnek dönem-projesi-bitirme-tezi-ekonometri-mehmet-güçlü-tez-ödevBurhanettin NOĞAY
This study empirically analyzes Turkey's money demand function from 1987 to 2010 using annual data for M1, GDP, and interest rates. It formulates the model based on Keynes' liquidity preference theory, which states that money demand is positively related to income and negatively related to interest rates. The model is estimated using OLS regression. The results show that GDP has a statistically significant positive relationship with money demand as expected, but the interest rate is statistically insignificant. However, the study notes that additional tests like unit root and cointegration were not performed, so the results may not be reliable.
This document examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Nigeria's crude oil revenue. It uses monthly data from 24 months before the crisis and 24 months during the crisis. The analysis found that the crisis significantly reduced Nigeria's oil revenue, though the impact has begun to lessen over time. The study recommends tighter financial regulation and economic diversification to mitigate the effects of future crises.
11.0001www.iiste.org call for paper.yamden pandok bitrus 1--1-17Alexander Decker
This document examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Nigeria's crude oil revenue. It uses monthly data from 24 months before the crisis and 24 months during the crisis. The study found that the crisis significantly reduced Nigeria's oil revenue, though the impact has begun to lessen over time. The author recommends tighter financial regulation and economic diversification to mitigate future crises. Oil is Nigeria's main export and source of government revenue, so reductions in global oil demand and prices during the crisis negatively affected the country.
The developmental state thesis argues that East Asian economic growth was driven by state-led industrial policy and strong technocratic leadership. However, critics argue this theory oversimplifies Asian states and economies. The document discusses how the developmental state theory has waxed and waned in popularity over time. While it helped explain initial economic growth, it is an inadequate framework for understanding all aspects of Asian politics, society, and development. The Asian financial crisis of the 1990s further undermined the developmental state theory by exposing issues like cronyism. Overall, the document examines debates around the merits and limitations of developmental state theory in accounting for East Asian economic development.
The Impact of Policy Announcement on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from C...IOSRJBM
The aim of the current empirical paper is to investigate the impact of major political events and its impact on stock market with special reference to BSE Sensex, Nifty fifty and BSE100 index. History has exhibited that stock market plays a major role in any economy. Stock markets have been impacted by various macro and micro economic factors. Therefore, the main objective of this empirical paper is to investigate the pricing behaviour of the chosen benchmark indices (Sensex, Nifty and BSE100) with respect to a major political event in India (demonetisation of currency) and its implications on regulators, researchers and market participants. For the purpose of the study the data has been collected from 26-10-2015 to 30-11-2016. The collected data has been tested for stationarity by applying ADF test statistics. The event study methodology has been employed to determine the impact of demonetisation on India bench mark indices. In order to capture the historical volatility the standard deviation of the abnormal returns of the selected indices has been computed. GARCH (1,1) model has been employed to ascertain the existence of ARCH/GARCH effect in the indices. We found a significant impact of currency demonetisation on the chosen indices on the event day. Nobody knows the actual impact of demonetisation on the economy in the long run. Bulk of the studies and opinions of experts on the demonetisation is mixed. Some experts opine that the impact on the economy would be significant and adverse. However, another bunch of experts opine that the shock on the economy would be smaller, although no extensive macroeconomic assessment has been published.
Cross country empirical studies of banking crisisAlexander Decker
1) The document analyzes factors associated with banking crises during periods of financial liberalization using a spatial Durbin model with panel data from 49 countries from 1989-1997.
2) The results suggest that financial liberalization increased the likelihood of banking crises, especially in emerging markets. Tighter restrictions on bank activities and entry also increased fragility.
3) Stronger institutions partly mitigated the effects of financial liberalization on crises. The impact of determinants differed between the full sample and emerging economies.
Market efficiency, market anomalies, causes, evidences, and some behavioral a...Alexander Decker
This document discusses market anomalies and the efficient market hypothesis. It provides definitions of market efficiency, forms of market efficiency including weak, semi-strong, and strong forms. It then defines market anomalies as deviations from expected market behavior that cannot be explained by market efficiency. The document categorizes anomalies into fundamental anomalies, technical anomalies, and calendar or seasonal anomalies. It provides examples of calendar anomalies such as the weekend effect and turn-of-the-month effect, and discusses previous studies that have found evidence of these anomalies in various stock markets. The document aims to review market anomalies and discuss their possible causes from both market efficiency and behavioral finance perspectives.
This paper attempts to confront various theoretical and empirical approaches to the East Asian currency crisis in 1997, but also with emphasis on two recently dominated literature about East Asian financial crisis. One, strongly supported by Corsetti, et. al (1998) stresses fundamental weaknesses, particularly in the financial sector. The other explains the crisis as the problem of illiquidity and multiple equilibria or 'herd behaviour' [Radelet and Sachs, 1998]. These two controversial articles facilitate the main exchange of ideas about the evolution and causes of the collapse of these economies which were viewed initially as very successful on their way to development and integration with the global economy. An econometric probit analysis was done in order to establish the most important determinants of the currency crisis in East Asia. The results were mixed (the probit modelling turned out to be very sensitive to changes in sample size, introduction of new variables and brought up an important issue of causality, the solution of which, or at least limitation of the problem, requires an inclusion of lagged variables in the model), but at least it showed that this type of exercise without further sensitivity analysis could not support Radelet and Sachs' (1998) panic scenario of the Asian meltdown. If anything, it rather pointed to fundamental problems existing in these economies.
Authored by: Monika Blaszkiewicz
Published in 2000
The paper presents three generations of theoretical models of currency crises. The models were drawing on the real crises. The first-generation models were developed after balance-of-payment crises in Mexico (1973-82), Argentina (1978-81), and Chile (1983). The second-generation models arose after speculative attacks in Europe and Mexico in 1990s. Finally, first attempts to built the third-generation models started after the Asian crisis in 1997-98. The paper also explains the mechanism of currency crisis, provides an overview of the crises literature, and defines the types of crises. This work is intended to summarize the current level of knowledge on the theoretical aspects of currency crises.
Authored by: Rafal Antczak
Published in 2000
Analysis of Stock Market Anomalies worldwide Aanchal Saxena
This document discusses calendar anomalies in stock markets, including the January effect, time of month effect, turn of month effect, day of week effect, and holiday effect. It analyzes evidence of these anomalies in both developed and emerging markets. While some strategies could exploit certain anomalies in the short term, the document concludes that consistently beating the market using anomalies is difficult. Anomalies vary over time and between markets. It is risky to base investment strategies solely on calendar effects due to the challenges of predicting market movements.
Stock market anomalies a study of seasonal effects on average returns of nair...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research study that examines seasonal effects (anomalies) on stock returns in the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) in Kenya. Specifically, it analyzes the day of the week effect, weekend effect, and monthly effect. The study tests hypotheses about whether average returns differ by day of the week or month. It reviews previous literature documenting calendar anomalies in other stock markets. The conceptual framework focuses on analyzing the three seasonal effects. The study uses 12 years of daily closing price data for NSE indices to test the hypotheses and determine if the NSE exhibits calendar anomalies.
This document discusses Indonesia's exchange rate policies following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It summarizes that Indonesia moved from a managed floating exchange rate regime prior to the crisis to a free floating exchange rate regime in July 1997 after the rupiah drastically depreciated during the crisis. The central bank could no longer maintain the rupiah's value. Since 2005, Indonesia has adopted an inflation targeting monetary policy framework to support the free floating exchange rate. The document also reviews debates around optimal exchange rate regimes and considerations for policymakers.
The document discusses log-periodic analysis of critical crashes in the Portuguese stock market. It begins with an outline of the presentation topics, which include motivation for the research, introduction to the theory of self-similar oscillations, literature review on rationality and herding behavior, the log-periodic formula, past international crashes in 1998, 2007 and 2015, methodology used, results and discussion. The presentation aims to analyze critical crashes in the Portuguese stock market using the log-periodic power law theory of financial singularities to identify early warning signs and better understand crash dynamics.
Relationships between indian and other south east stock marketsAlexander Decker
- The document examines the relationship between stock markets in selected Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) and India from 1991 to 2011.
- Statistical analysis including correlation matrices and econometric tests like Granger causality, converging trend, and cointegration tests were used to analyze the data.
- The results found increasing integration between the Southeast Asian markets after the 2008 global financial crisis, with correlations trending upward over time.
2001 12 india indira gandhi institute_ keynote address_13_dec2001William White
This document provides an overview of the evolving global financial system and its implications for emerging markets. It discusses several key themes:
1) Forces driving change in the global financial system include advances in technology, deregulation, demographic shifts, and increased competition. These forces have manifested in securitization, globalization, and consolidation in the financial industry.
2) International capital flows into and out of emerging markets can create volatility. Recommendations to address this include improving transparency, strengthening domestic frameworks, and using macroprudential tools like capital controls.
3) International standards and their applicability to emerging markets are an important consideration, as countries evaluate how to balance financial openness and stability.
Restarting asset backed securities and current developments in the securitiza...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper on restarting asset-backed securities (ABS) in Europe after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. It discusses how securitization contributed to the crisis but can also help address economic crises and distressed companies' needs for capital. The paper examines how regulatory reforms are reshaping ABS business, using data on developments in Europe. Hypotheses are tested on the crisis's impact through statistical analysis. Results show the crisis had a minimal effect, and ABS is now mainly shaped by new regulations.
Restarting asset backed securities and current developments in the securitiza...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper on restarting asset-backed securities (ABS) in Europe after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. It discusses how securitization contributed to the crisis but can also help address economic crises and distressed companies' needs for capital. The paper examines how regulatory reforms are reshaping ABS business. It analyzes data on recent ABS activity in Europe to test the hypothesis that the crisis had a minimal impact on reshaping the ABS market. The results show that regulatory changes, not the crisis itself, have mainly driven changes to the ABS market post-crisis.
This document summarizes a research paper that develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze systemic risk in the banking sector. The key aspects of the model are that it includes banks that engage in maturity transformation by issuing non-state contingent debt, and the banks are exposed to risks in capital markets that can affect their solvency. The model shows that individual banks in a competitive system will take on excessive systemic risk due to pecuniary externalities, leading to a higher crisis probability than the socially optimal level. The document then discusses using prompt corrective action (PCA) policies to reduce crisis risk by strengthening bank capital requirements.
Mla style essay one aspect of the current economic crisisCustomEssayOrder
This document discusses inflation as an economic crisis affecting the world. It defines inflation as a general increase in prices of goods and services over time, forcing consumers to pay more for less. The document then examines problems caused by inflation like a loss of monetary value, inability to predict future inflation, and shortage of goods. It also explores causes of inflation such as excess money printing, national debts, rising production costs, and wars. Finally, the document proposes solutions like fiscal and monetary policy controls, and reducing international debt dependence, to curb inflation reoccurrence.
Traditional methods to measure volatility case study of selective developed ...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes stock market volatility across developed and emerging markets from 1997-2009 using traditional measures like standard deviation. Key findings include:
- Returns for all markets showed non-normality, with emerging markets exhibiting more non-normality and higher kurtosis, indicating more peaked return distributions.
- Volatility, as measured by standard deviation, was highest for Turkey, Brazil, and China - all emerging markets. However, some developed markets were found to be more volatile than some emerging markets, suggesting volatility is not unique to emerging markets.
- The analysis concludes volatility should be measured using other methods like extreme value analysis due to the heavy-tailed distributions found in emerging market returns. This could provide better guidance for
Foundations of Financial Sector Mechanisms and Economic Growth in Emerging Ec...iosrjce
In this paper, we try to uncover the economic foundations of financial sector development and its
impacts on accelerating economic growth in the given context of emerging economies. We theorize and
empirically test a causally-motivated relationship among economic growth and related key financial sector
variables pertinent to this problem. We accomplish this by analyzing a 20 year panel-data constructed for 30
countries falling within the categorization of an ‘emerging economy’. We estimate the appropriate statistical
models along with related diagnostic tests. Finally, we comment on the strengths and weaknesses of our
approach and we try to explicate the economic rationale and justification for our formulation and the evidences
that follow
Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in emerging marketsAlexander Decker
This research paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in Kenya from 2000 to 2009. Using cointegration analysis and an error correction model, the study finds that income level, banking sector development, and stock market liquidity are important predictors of development of the Nairobi Stock Exchange. However, macroeconomic stability was not found to be a significant determinant. The paper provides background on the history and growth of the Nairobi Stock Exchange and reviews previous literature on factors that influence stock market development in emerging markets.
öRnek dönem-projesi-bitirme-tezi-ekonometri-mehmet-güçlü-tez-ödevBurhanettin NOĞAY
This study empirically analyzes Turkey's money demand function from 1987 to 2010 using annual data for M1, GDP, and interest rates. It formulates the model based on Keynes' liquidity preference theory, which states that money demand is positively related to income and negatively related to interest rates. The model is estimated using OLS regression. The results show that GDP has a statistically significant positive relationship with money demand as expected, but the interest rate is statistically insignificant. However, the study notes that additional tests like unit root and cointegration were not performed, so the results may not be reliable.
This document examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Nigeria's crude oil revenue. It uses monthly data from 24 months before the crisis and 24 months during the crisis. The analysis found that the crisis significantly reduced Nigeria's oil revenue, though the impact has begun to lessen over time. The study recommends tighter financial regulation and economic diversification to mitigate the effects of future crises.
11.0001www.iiste.org call for paper.yamden pandok bitrus 1--1-17Alexander Decker
This document examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Nigeria's crude oil revenue. It uses monthly data from 24 months before the crisis and 24 months during the crisis. The study found that the crisis significantly reduced Nigeria's oil revenue, though the impact has begun to lessen over time. The author recommends tighter financial regulation and economic diversification to mitigate future crises. Oil is Nigeria's main export and source of government revenue, so reductions in global oil demand and prices during the crisis negatively affected the country.
The developmental state thesis argues that East Asian economic growth was driven by state-led industrial policy and strong technocratic leadership. However, critics argue this theory oversimplifies Asian states and economies. The document discusses how the developmental state theory has waxed and waned in popularity over time. While it helped explain initial economic growth, it is an inadequate framework for understanding all aspects of Asian politics, society, and development. The Asian financial crisis of the 1990s further undermined the developmental state theory by exposing issues like cronyism. Overall, the document examines debates around the merits and limitations of developmental state theory in accounting for East Asian economic development.
The Impact of Policy Announcement on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from C...IOSRJBM
The aim of the current empirical paper is to investigate the impact of major political events and its impact on stock market with special reference to BSE Sensex, Nifty fifty and BSE100 index. History has exhibited that stock market plays a major role in any economy. Stock markets have been impacted by various macro and micro economic factors. Therefore, the main objective of this empirical paper is to investigate the pricing behaviour of the chosen benchmark indices (Sensex, Nifty and BSE100) with respect to a major political event in India (demonetisation of currency) and its implications on regulators, researchers and market participants. For the purpose of the study the data has been collected from 26-10-2015 to 30-11-2016. The collected data has been tested for stationarity by applying ADF test statistics. The event study methodology has been employed to determine the impact of demonetisation on India bench mark indices. In order to capture the historical volatility the standard deviation of the abnormal returns of the selected indices has been computed. GARCH (1,1) model has been employed to ascertain the existence of ARCH/GARCH effect in the indices. We found a significant impact of currency demonetisation on the chosen indices on the event day. Nobody knows the actual impact of demonetisation on the economy in the long run. Bulk of the studies and opinions of experts on the demonetisation is mixed. Some experts opine that the impact on the economy would be significant and adverse. However, another bunch of experts opine that the shock on the economy would be smaller, although no extensive macroeconomic assessment has been published.
Cross country empirical studies of banking crisisAlexander Decker
1) The document analyzes factors associated with banking crises during periods of financial liberalization using a spatial Durbin model with panel data from 49 countries from 1989-1997.
2) The results suggest that financial liberalization increased the likelihood of banking crises, especially in emerging markets. Tighter restrictions on bank activities and entry also increased fragility.
3) Stronger institutions partly mitigated the effects of financial liberalization on crises. The impact of determinants differed between the full sample and emerging economies.
Market efficiency, market anomalies, causes, evidences, and some behavioral a...Alexander Decker
This document discusses market anomalies and the efficient market hypothesis. It provides definitions of market efficiency, forms of market efficiency including weak, semi-strong, and strong forms. It then defines market anomalies as deviations from expected market behavior that cannot be explained by market efficiency. The document categorizes anomalies into fundamental anomalies, technical anomalies, and calendar or seasonal anomalies. It provides examples of calendar anomalies such as the weekend effect and turn-of-the-month effect, and discusses previous studies that have found evidence of these anomalies in various stock markets. The document aims to review market anomalies and discuss their possible causes from both market efficiency and behavioral finance perspectives.
This paper attempts to confront various theoretical and empirical approaches to the East Asian currency crisis in 1997, but also with emphasis on two recently dominated literature about East Asian financial crisis. One, strongly supported by Corsetti, et. al (1998) stresses fundamental weaknesses, particularly in the financial sector. The other explains the crisis as the problem of illiquidity and multiple equilibria or 'herd behaviour' [Radelet and Sachs, 1998]. These two controversial articles facilitate the main exchange of ideas about the evolution and causes of the collapse of these economies which were viewed initially as very successful on their way to development and integration with the global economy. An econometric probit analysis was done in order to establish the most important determinants of the currency crisis in East Asia. The results were mixed (the probit modelling turned out to be very sensitive to changes in sample size, introduction of new variables and brought up an important issue of causality, the solution of which, or at least limitation of the problem, requires an inclusion of lagged variables in the model), but at least it showed that this type of exercise without further sensitivity analysis could not support Radelet and Sachs' (1998) panic scenario of the Asian meltdown. If anything, it rather pointed to fundamental problems existing in these economies.
Authored by: Monika Blaszkiewicz
Published in 2000
The paper presents three generations of theoretical models of currency crises. The models were drawing on the real crises. The first-generation models were developed after balance-of-payment crises in Mexico (1973-82), Argentina (1978-81), and Chile (1983). The second-generation models arose after speculative attacks in Europe and Mexico in 1990s. Finally, first attempts to built the third-generation models started after the Asian crisis in 1997-98. The paper also explains the mechanism of currency crisis, provides an overview of the crises literature, and defines the types of crises. This work is intended to summarize the current level of knowledge on the theoretical aspects of currency crises.
Authored by: Rafal Antczak
Published in 2000
Analysis of Stock Market Anomalies worldwide Aanchal Saxena
This document discusses calendar anomalies in stock markets, including the January effect, time of month effect, turn of month effect, day of week effect, and holiday effect. It analyzes evidence of these anomalies in both developed and emerging markets. While some strategies could exploit certain anomalies in the short term, the document concludes that consistently beating the market using anomalies is difficult. Anomalies vary over time and between markets. It is risky to base investment strategies solely on calendar effects due to the challenges of predicting market movements.
Stock market anomalies a study of seasonal effects on average returns of nair...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research study that examines seasonal effects (anomalies) on stock returns in the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) in Kenya. Specifically, it analyzes the day of the week effect, weekend effect, and monthly effect. The study tests hypotheses about whether average returns differ by day of the week or month. It reviews previous literature documenting calendar anomalies in other stock markets. The conceptual framework focuses on analyzing the three seasonal effects. The study uses 12 years of daily closing price data for NSE indices to test the hypotheses and determine if the NSE exhibits calendar anomalies.
This document discusses Indonesia's exchange rate policies following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It summarizes that Indonesia moved from a managed floating exchange rate regime prior to the crisis to a free floating exchange rate regime in July 1997 after the rupiah drastically depreciated during the crisis. The central bank could no longer maintain the rupiah's value. Since 2005, Indonesia has adopted an inflation targeting monetary policy framework to support the free floating exchange rate. The document also reviews debates around optimal exchange rate regimes and considerations for policymakers.
The document discusses log-periodic analysis of critical crashes in the Portuguese stock market. It begins with an outline of the presentation topics, which include motivation for the research, introduction to the theory of self-similar oscillations, literature review on rationality and herding behavior, the log-periodic formula, past international crashes in 1998, 2007 and 2015, methodology used, results and discussion. The presentation aims to analyze critical crashes in the Portuguese stock market using the log-periodic power law theory of financial singularities to identify early warning signs and better understand crash dynamics.
Relationships between indian and other south east stock marketsAlexander Decker
- The document examines the relationship between stock markets in selected Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) and India from 1991 to 2011.
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Journal of Banking & Finance 44 (2014) 114–129Contents lists.docxdonnajames55
Journal of Banking & Finance 44 (2014) 114–129
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of Banking & Finance
j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / j b f
Macro-financial determinants of the great financial crisis: Implications
for financial regulation q
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.001
0378-4266/� 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
q We would like to thank the Editor, an anonymous referee, Luc Laeven, Ross
Levine, Marco Pagano, Andrea Sironi, Randy Stevenson, Gianfranco Torriero,
Giuseppe Zadra and seminar participants at IFABS Conference and ISTEIN seminar
for helpful comments. This paper’s findings, interpretations, and conclusions are
entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the
World Bank and the Italian Banking Association.
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 02 58362725.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (G. Caprio Jr.), [email protected]
(V. D’Apice), [email protected] (G. Ferri), [email protected]
(G.W. Puopolo).
Gerard Caprio Jr. a, Vincenzo D’Apice b,c, Giovanni Ferri d,e, Giovanni Walter Puopolo f,⇑
a Williams College, United States
b Economic Research Department of Italian Banking Association, Italy
c Istituto Einaudi (IstEin), Italy
d LUMSA University of Rome, Italy
e Center for Relationship Banking & Economics – CERBE, Italy
f Bocconi University, CSEF and P. Baffi Center, Italy
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 15 April 2012
Accepted 4 March 2014
Available online 29 March 2014
JEL classification:
G01
G15
G18
G21
Keywords:
Banking crisis
Government intervention
Regulation
a b s t r a c t
We provide a cross-country and cross-bank analysis of the financial determinants of the Great Financial
Crisis using data on 83 countries from the period 1998 to 2006. First, our cross-country results show that
the probability of suffering the crisis in 2008 was larger for countries having higher levels of credit
deposit ratio whereas it was lower for countries characterized by higher levels of: (i) net interest margin,
(ii) concentration in the banking sector, (iii) restrictions to bank activities, (iv) private monitoring. The
bank-level analysis reinforces these results and shows that the latter factors are also key determinants
across banks, thus explaining the probability of bank crisis. Our findings contribute to extend the analyt-
ical toolkit available for macro and micro-prudential regulation.
� 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A Quantitative and Qualitative Inquiry into the Factors That Motivate Banks to Use Financial Derivative
1. P.h.D Research Proposal
Doctoral Program in Governance
A Quantitative and Qualitative Inquiry into the Factors That Motivate
Banks to Use Financial Derivative
Patrick Kibui
Email: ******************
Word Count: 4510
Submitted on 22/02/2016
Key Words: The use of derivatives, Regulation, History of Derivatives, Mixed methods
2. ii
Table of content Page No
Abstract iii
1.0 Introduction 1
1.2 Problem topics 2
1.3 Problem Statements 2
2.0 Literature Review 3
2.1 Types of Financial Derivatives 3
2.1.1 A Brief History of Commodity Market 3
2.1.2 Forward Contracts 6
2.1.3 Future contracts 6
2.1.4 Options 6
2.1.5 Swaps 6
2.2 Derivatives and their uses 7
2.3 Regulation of Reforms 8
3.0 Research Design 11
3.1 Research process 11
3.2 Population and Sampling 12
3.3 Data collection techniques and analysis procedures 12
3.4 Gaining access 13
4.0 Outcomes and Significance 14
References 15
3. iii
Abstract
The financial derivative play a unique role in the economy and has undergone transformations
since the writing of philosophers Thales of Miletus in ancient Greece. The motivate for banks to
use derivative instruments are risk management, hedging, speculation, price discovery, to
reduce cost of debt, liability diversification and as an income generating segment. Derivative
instruments have been accused as the main cause of financial crisis and being viewed as a
weapon of mass destruction. The fear of another crisis as forced market regulators to come up
with reforms aimed at improving transparency, mitigate systematic risk and safeguard against
market abuse. The purpose of this study was to explore factors that motivate banks to use
derivatives and the nature of reforms proposed that relates to OTC derivatives. The nature of a
derivative, its origin, and the rationale for being used will be addressed. This research will adopt
a mixed method design, both quantitative and qualitative techniques will be used. Quantitative
method will be the main tool for the research, and will be integrated with qualitative during the
interpretation phase, which is more about sequential explanatory design. The derivatives play a
significant role in the economy by transferring risk from one party to another. Even though
derivatives are risky when handle with care they can bring substantial economic benefit. The
characteristics of derivative instruments explored in this analysis provides a suggestions for
further research on the correlation between derivative instruments and financial crisis since
inception.
4. 1
1.0 Introduction
In a world of innovations, one naturally assumes that institutions engage in the management of
risk and protecting against adverse movement of currencies, commodity prices, and interest
rates. For the success of this institution, they have to use financial derivative as the best method
to manage these risks (Till, 2014).These derivatives instruments are associated with a specific
financial tool, i.e. commodity, with precise financial risks traded in financial markets in their own
right. Derivatives are used in various ways, such as risk management, arbitrage between
markets, speculation, and hedging (Chance and Brooks, 2015).
Recently, the OTC has been accused as the major cause of the latest financial crisis because of
weaknesses in the infrastructure of the derivatives markets (Almunajem, 2015).The history tells
us that OTC derivatives has destabilized the economy since time in memorial. These might
include the tulip mania of 1637, the Latin American debt crisis of 1825, the Wall Street crashes
of 1929, the Asian crises of 1997 (Neal and Weidenmier, 2003), the financial crisis of 2008, and
now the European sovereign debt crisis (Beirne and Fratzscher, 2013). This might be the
reason why derivatives are viewed as “time bombs and weapon of mass destruction” by Warren
Buffet (Boyd, 2015). However, when managed well will lead to higher economic growth,
earnings opportunities, improve credit risk management, financial innovation, market
development and increase market resilience to shock (Chance and Brooks, 2015).
Furthermore, derivatives play a significant role in the financial system; hence have a positive
impact on the economy, although they are associated with certain risks (Riederová, 2011).
These risks are not adequately mitigated and the European Commission has been working to
address them. Derivatives markets are sensitive and regulators intended to improve
competition, transparency, resilience of the market segment and reduce systematic risk.
However, with the introduction of these reforms, it is believed to undermine derivative markets
and a threat to Europe’s economic growth (Stafford, 2015).
5. 2
1.2 Problem topics
In the wake of new financial products and the events of the 2008 financial crisis, regulation of
derivatives has become an issue. The purpose of this sequence, mixed methods study is to
explore and develop themes about the use of derivative instruments in banking sector taking
into account the US and the EU financial system which are more sophisticated and are the two
largest derivatives market. The following research question will be used.
• How do the derivatives regulation changed the derivatives environment in EU and USA
and their reasons for being extensively used by the banks? While critically analyzing
their history of origin, factors that motivate banks to use them, the relationship with the
financial crisis and the effects of reforms on derivative market.
1.3 Problem Statements
Buffett said that derivative “at some point they are likely to cause big trouble" and they are a
threat to financial market because they are prone to speculation (Boyd, 2015). Derivative market
has undergone various transformations since its inception in17th-century, such as rice in Japan
and tulip bulbs in Holland (Stulz, 2005). In 1970s, markets were small, but due to economic
growth, it led to an increase in interest rate volatility thus making it crucial to hedge. In addition,
the growth of internal trade and flow of capital has increased the demand of financial derivatives
to mitigate the risk (Mishkin, 2006).
Various incidents occurred during the 1970s that were the catalyst of modern derivatives. For
example, the collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime might have been the source for the
trading of foreign-exchange derivatives, and the discovery of Black and Scholes model allowed
traders to buy or sell an asset. This was as a result of rapid innovation in the world of
computing, which allowed fast processing of complex data to be resolved and moderate
regulation mechanism (Kummer and Pauletto, 2012).
6. 3
The emergence of OTC has provided the users, who are mitigating the risks, the ability to enter
into a tailor-made contract that matches their unique risk profile. User can buy and sell contracts
that either doesn't exist or don’t have sufficient cash flow for exchange (Poitras, 2009). This
means that there is a risk of transferability and an exchange mechanism is required to settle the
arrangement. In addition, OTC derivative were decentralized and unregulated and the user
could hedge without posting daily margin since it was not mandatory (Moore and Khoja, 2008).
The consequence of unregulated OTC derivatives market was the main cause of the crisis
because they related directly with large financial institutions that were seen as “too big to
fail”(Zhou, 2009). However, with the establishment of regulators’ and fear of another financial
crisis, clearing houses are collecting collateral at the beginning of each contract, observe daily
price movements and merchants pay for losses when they occur (Roe, 2011; Oakley, 2015).
2.0 Literature Review
The history of the evolution of derivative instrument is amazing how old it is. Few authors have
written about it and their regulation, even though it is incomplete at best. In this section, a brief
history of the derivative will be discussed.
2.1 Types of Financial Derivatives
The derivative is defined as those assets whose value are determined by the value of some
other assets, called the underlying (Peery, 2012). This section will highlight the major
classification of the derivative instrument.
2.1.1 A Brief History of Commodity Market
The history of derivatives can be traced in the Bible. In Genesis Chapter 29, the story of Jacob
took place around 1700 BC. Rachel was sold to Jacob for an option of seven years of service
for the right to marry. Laban defaulted this derivative and offered Leah to Jacob, who was not
part of the contract. Jacob was asked to purchase another option to marry Rachel. This might
be compared to a forward contract with an obligation to the marriage (Chance, 2011).
7. 4
A call option on olives can be traced to the writing of philosophers Thales of Miletus in ancient
Greece at around 580 BC, when farmers negotiated for the contract before harvest (Chatnani,
2010). Furthermore, Swan (2000) said that these derivative agreements were being used by
olive farmers to reduce the price risk associated with future harvest. On the same note, farmers
were given three kuru of barley by the King’s daughter to be returned after the harvest. This
contract might be compared to a commodity loan borrowed by the farmers with the hope that
they will be returned after harvest. It shows that the farmers took some risk; if the crops failed,
they were still required to return the barley to the King’s daughter.
Rice contract was traded in both China and Japan, in China farmers entered into an agreement
to sell rice at a future date for stated price. These contracts were negotiated before planting
season. In addition, speculators were eliminated as grain was secured from the farmers during
the reign of Imperial China (Hou, 1997). Swan (2000) said that during the 17th century, Japan
traded on future rice by issuing tickets as a promise of delivery. The ticket was an obligation to
deliver rice in the future date at a particular price and quantity. Since the future price was fixed
at the present date, the traders were able to reduce the risk of adverse movement in price.
In the 1550s, buying and selling of tulips were conducted by craftsmen and merchant. As the
demand of tulips increased significantly, the merchants were forced to enter into a future
contract to mitigate the effect of high prices. In 1937, tulip market crashed, investors were left
bankrupt. Charles Mackay said the reason why price changed was as a result of financial
market irrationality. However, Peter Garber blamed the public for high prices and the risk
involved. The Dutch government associated tulip contracts with gambling hence were
unenforceable. In addition to this, Mr. Garber said that speculation was one of the causes of
extremely high prices of tulips (Garber, 1989).
The Royal Exchange was formed in 1571 as the first world commodity market. It faced various
challenges such as how to deal with speculators who were trading at the Alley and who ignored
derivative legislations trading on future options (Peery, 2012). It lead to enactment of Gaming
8. 5
act and Bernard Act to enforce forward and future contract, and introduce punitive measures on
speculation, even though it was unsuccessful in eradicating this menace. With those
shortcomings, the legal defense was removed, making the broker accountable and to close the
deal in case the customer default. This eliminated speculative plague that had infected OTC
trading of option contracts then.
“Time-contracts” was available is Germany at the beginning of the 19th century and were
classified into forward and options contracts and related to future delivery (Weber, 2008).
Furthermore, Germany exchange served as a marketplace for trading bonds, bills of exchange
and foreign currencies. Six-month futures contract was available in Germany mark notes, even
though speculators settled their differences every month. However, at the end of the19th
century, banks collapse as a result of futures speculation on the exchange. Trading on future
commodities on grain was banned due to price manipulation, abuse of transaction by traders
and short seller (Peery, 2012).
The modern day derivative was established in 1848 when the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
created the first formal commodities exchange. This might have led to the creation of a place
where merchants negotiated forward contracts and found a solution to mitigate credit risk
(Pathak, 2011). CBOT faced numerous challenges such as facilities were over-utilize and
under-utilized during the low season, volatility of grain prices and sometimes parties to the deal
walked away hence increasing counterparty risks (Kummer and Pauletto, 2012). The volatility of
price might have led to the creation of “to-arrive” contracts, which allowed farmers to lock in the
price and deliver the grain a few months later. “To-arrive” contracts were used as an instrument
for hedging as well as for speculating on price changes (Madhumathi and Ranganatham, 2012).
On flip side contract “to-arrive’’ price was distorted, speculation, fraud, and manipulation were
rampant (Greenberger, 2010).
9. 6
2.1.2 Forward Contracts
A forward contract is a tailor-made contract involving two parties to buy or sell an asset at a
future date for a certain price (Jarrow and Oldfield, 1981). A forward contract is not traded on an
exchange, but traded over the counter, between two financial institutions or one of its clients.
Forward contracts are a two-sided wager and are open to counterparty risk. These risks are
non-performance of obligation by either of the parties to the contract (Gupta, 2005).
2.1.3 Future contracts
Similar to a forward contract, a future contract involves two parties to buy or sell an asset at a
specified price and at a specified time and place (Gupta, 2005). Future contracts are
standardized and are traded on an exchange, called futures exchange. For every future
exchange, there are specific settlement dates for a future contract. These dates are in March,
June, September, and December. This shows that the future contracts specify the delivery
month rather than the day and during the month.
2.1.4 Options
An option is a contract that gives the buyer of the option a choice whether to enforce the terms
of the contract agreement or to let the contract lapse. An option gives its owner the right but
does not impose the obligation, either to buy or to sell a quantity of a particular item at a set
price on, or up to, a given future date (MacKenzie, 2005).
2.1.5 Swaps
A swap is an agreement by which two entities will agree to exchange cash flows in the future or
before a specified future date based on the underlying asset. Unlike futures, swaps are not
exchange-traded instruments. Swaps can also be used to hedge against an adverse movement
in interest rates and are usually designed by banks and financial institutions that also arrange
the trading of these bilateral contracts (Mahajan and Singh, 2015).
10. 7
2.2 Derivatives and their uses
Banks are motivated to use derivatives for hedging against the risk, revenue and fee collection
that relate to derivatives trading (Li and Marinč, 2013). To hedge, banks require financial
software and capital investment which is at their disposal. Paligorova and Staskow (2014) said
that the profit motive and low volatility are the reason for hedging which has enhanced the ability
to raise capital, reduce revenue volatility and investment decisions. This assumption was
supported by Campello et al. (2011) when they said that it lower the cost of debt with less
investment restriction. While Géczy et al. (1997) said it will reduce cash flow fluctuations and
enhance investors’ confidence due to lower gearing and increase company value.
Chance and Brooks (2015) identified derivatives tools as a means of managing risk, discovering
price, reducing costs, improving liquidity, short selling, and making the market more efficient.
Although Gatev and Strahan (2006) said that banks facilitate those investors seeking to reduce
their risk and to transfer it to those wanting to increase. Whilst in the future and forward market,
banks collect information showing the spot price of the underlying asset on which the future
price is based hence being used to provide price discovery (Hull et al., 2013). Besides that,
derivatives entail lower transaction cost, which means that companies and other trading cost are
lower for traders in these markets (Flannery, 1996).
Guay (1999) said that derivatives are primarily used by firms for hedging purposes, that is, to
reduce the financial risk. International firms are prone to foreign exchange risk than local firms,
hedging is of great relief to them. International firms use derivatives to minimize the interest rate
risk and currency risk exposure. Hedging is seen as a ways to increase companies’ value. Even
though, Grant and Marshall (1997) argued that derivatives are hardly being used to speculate
on market movement; but are being used to reduce the volatility of institutions cash flows. This
might mean that swaps, forwards and options are mostly used to manage foreign exchange and
interest rate risks.
11. 8
Furthermore, Vashishtha and Kumar (2010) acknowledged that derivatives are instruments to
manage risk, speculation, price discovery and efficiency in trading. This might mean that swaps,
forwards and options are mostly used to manage foreign exchange and interest rate risks.
Banks that use interest rate derivatives tend to increase the income generating segment by
lending faster than banks that do not use interest rate derivatives (Brewer et al., 2000). This
bank would use derivatives to hedge against the uncontrollable risks, thus saving them time to
concentrate on their core competence and operational efficiency (Osuoha, 2009).
Since banks act as financial intermediaries they are prone to interest rate risk when they create
a mismatch in the pricing of asset and liability. They use financial tools such as interest rate
derivatives to manage these risks. Diamond (1984) said that banks need to hedge systematic
risk in case they lack an internal mechanism to monitor the interest volatility. Interest rate
fluctuation has caused financial distress and bank failure in recent years, and to avoid these
calamities they need to hedge against them (Purnanandam, 2007). Besides that, the external
shocks on bank’s operating policies might be minimized by the use of derivatives
(Purnanandam, 2004)
Shiu et al. (2010) said the size of the bank, the degree of currency exposure and liability
diversification are motives of banks to use derivatives. The call for off-balance sheet hedging is
as a result of information being available and currency exposure. This might clarify the
alternative outcomes for interest rate and currency rate related activity, hence might explain why
derivative instruments act as a motivation tool in the management of risk. Although limited
evidence for risk reduction is available and has no bearing on bank’s risk, market risk and
unsystematic risk as pioneered by Hentschel and Kothari (2001).
2.3 Regulation of Reforms
In the wake of the financial crisis, the Leaders of the G20 nations agreed to a series of
measures to improve transparency, reduce systemic risk and protect against market abuse.
12. 9
Others have criticized the alleged opaqueness and impenetrable of OTC derivative instruments
as being time boom due to their volatility and nature of systemic risks (Kono, 2013).
The banking sector reflects regulatory arbitrage and the ability to innovate and go round the
regulatory machinery intended to contain it taking the risk. Leaving this regulatory unchecked for
several years was a failure by everybody to comprehend the consequences of regulation, the
ideology of the time and the development of tools to deal with them (Acharyaet al, 2010). Banks
have received attention due to the crisis they have caused, the risk involved and being accused
of employing “vertical silos”, where clearing house only processes contract owned and traded
with them (European Commission, 2015). This has lead to lack of competition due to barriers to
entry as they control these houses.
The current outlook is that many countries are in the process of implementing these new
changes on derivative-related activities (IOSCO, 2015). These reforms will bring changes to the
financial markets as proposed by Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reforms and other regulatory in
different ways (Morrison and Foerster, 2010).These derivatives reforms are:
1. Lincoln Provision (the “Swaps Pushout” Rule): aimed at promoting accountability and
transparency in financial markets and prohibit the government from “bailing out,”
institution losses that arose from risky financial transaction such as swaps. However, this
rule has been amended to allow institutions to engage in CDIs activity, hence exposing
taxpayers to more financial risk (Lay, 2015).
2. Regulatory Framework and Key Definitions: aimed at the establishment of the regulatory
framework and division of duties and responsibility for the CFTC and SEC.
3. Clearing and Trading Requirements: requires that all market participants must have
access to central clearing house and standardized OTC derivative must be cleared
through CCPs (Deloitte, 2014).
13. 10
4. Regulation of Swap Dealers and Major Swap Participants: Swap dealers and major
swap participants must register as such and will be subject to a regulatory
regime(Morrison and Foerster, 2010).
This reform will bring a comprehensive and far-reaching regulatory regime on derivatives and
market participants (Morrison and Foerster, 2010).However, in the process of implementing
them, derivative players are complaining because of conflicting regulations such as to separate
US and EU clearing house (Chaffee, 2011). In addition, lack of trust by regulators to believe that
regulation in other countries are adequate and will deliver a similar level of protection to its own
(Deutsche Bank Research, 2011).
Besides that, Deloitte (2013) said that EU derivatives reforms will lead to similar regulatory
result as those in US derivatives. This seems to show that the two regimes will deliver the same
goal and reduce systematic risk, improving transparency, combating market abuse and
supporting financial stability. This is positive news to market participant and regulators at this
point in time as they embark on rule harmonization and implementation. For the rules to be
successful, regulators need to acknowledge the robustness and consistency of other players in
the global environment. Without it, market participants are faced with uncertainty, unduly
complex implementation plans and market fragmentation.
In the wake of these reforms, the war on derivative trading is far from the finish, since they are
risky and banks can’t account for them (Campbell-Verduyn, 2015). According to Braithwaite et
al. (2010), victory over Wall Street are still not over, these rules are toothless when the
custodians of derivative instrument can’t keep track of them as they moan that it is too
expensive to keep up with all the enormous paperwork required. With this regard, there is a
need for Global Leader to come up with standards for the regulation of market participants in
derivatives market when dealing with intermediating transaction.
14. 11
3.0 Research Design
This study will adopt a mixed method design, both quantitative and qualitative techniques will be
used Quantitative method will be the main tool for the research, and will be integrated with
qualitative during the interpretation phase, which is more about sequential explanatory design
(Tashakkori and Teddlie, 2003). Thus, when quantitative data leads the qualitative data, the
focus is to test the variables with a large sample and then carry out a more in-depth exploration
of a few cases during the qualitative phase (Azorín and Cameron, 2010).The following sub-
sections will describe the research process and data analysis. The reason for choosing mixed
method are:
• Mixed methodology is more appropriate to investigate the real life banking practice and
is realistic. In addition, is superior since it answers questions that other methods cannot,
it has stronger inferences and it allows divergent findings (Teddlie and Tashakkori,
2009).
• Is more appropriate in answering a particular question than the other and would be
adopting the position of the pragmatist (Saunders et al., 2011).
This study, the objective will be to describe factors that motivate banks to use derivative
instruments and how reforms have affected them. This meant that a single research method will
not be appropriate because of the complexity of the derivatives instruments, the attitude of the
bank towards the risk and the nature of the reforms.
3.1 Research process
This research will consist of two sequential stages. In stage one of the research, a quantitative
survey will be used. It will be conducted at one point in time and can be described as cross-
sectional. The tool to be used will be the questionnaire and will be administered
electronically.This method is the best because it offers standardized questionnaire, even though
they are not good for exploratory research that has many open-ended questions (Robson,
15. 12
2002). A pre-survey contact will be done where the respondent is advised to expect the
questionnaire by email.
In phase two, few individual will be interviewed who participated in the survey to have in-depth
information about derivative instruments. This is similar to the sequential explanatory design
where quantitative data are collected first to explore the issue in details, then followed by
qualitative methods which enable to get an in-depth knowledge of the issue through interviews.
Teddlie and Tashakkori (2003) said that for phase two research questions they come from the
inferences of the phase one. The reason for the phase two is to explore the correlation between
the motive for the use of derivative, financial crisis, and how proposed reforms have affected
them, semi-structured interviews will be conducted as a means of exploring the banking sectors
to establish their relationship. Carson et al. (2001) said that the use of in-depth interviews is
aimed at gaining an understanding and meaning while being flexible and an element of
structure.
3.2 Population and Sampling
The study population in this research will be the Germany Banks, who deal with derivative
instruments (Burns and Grove, 2003). The survey will be based on random sampling technique.
The sample size will be controlled when saturation point of information is reached which means
repetition of previously collected data occurs (StreubertSpeziale and Carpenter, 2003).
However, for in-depth interview Guest et al., (2006) said a sample size of 12 interviews is
sufficient when drawn within a fairly homogenous group whilst (Creswell, 2007) said that to be
sufficient a sample size of between 25 and 30 interviews.
3.3 Data collection techniques and analysis procedures
The quantitative data collected will be analyzed using charts, graphs, and statistics. This will
help us to explore, presents, describe and explain the relationship within our data (Saunders et
al., 2011). Data will be presented in the form of a table and diagram that show the frequency of
16. 13
occurrence to enable comparison through establishing statistical relationships between
variables.Data will be analyzed using computer software such as SPPS for windows.
In phase one, secondary data will be collected from online database and will be used to
construct and provide a theoretical understanding of a brief history of the derivative. From the
data collected and analyzed, the researcher will try and shed light what motivated users of the
derivative instrument to use them and the correlations with financial crisis during that period.
After gathering secondary data, the researcher will use questionnaires which will be sent to the
Germany banks and analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Data will be reorganized
according to category while looking for dominant theme or relationship (Dey, 1993).
Additional qualitative data based on in-depth interviews with financial managers and financial
analyst will be conducted and analyzed qualitatively to clarify the content of some of the
questionnaire results. This will be important to get at the meaning behind some of the data while
seeking new insights’ (Robson, 2002). Various question format will be used such as open ended
to allow the interviewee to define and describe a situation and probing questions to explore
responses that are of importance to the research topic. Miles and Huberman (1994) said that for
in-depth interviews, an inductive content analysis might be conducted on the interview
transcripts using text mining software to scan and analyses the transcribed documents. This will
condense and keep the data concise which is valuable when presenting data from multiple
methods (Hohenthal, 2006).
3.4 Gaining access
The researcher will use company website to gather information about the company and also
about the head office and their contacts. The company will be conducted by telephone and the
researcher will introduce himself by providing various information such as he is a student, title of
the course, and the name of the university. The researcher will also explain briefly the nature of
the research to be conducted to the person who answers the telephone. This will result in being
17. 14
provided with the contacts of the gatekeeper who I will contact. In case the person that I am
dealing with is of little help, I will ask politely to be transferred to the appropriate person.This
process will continue until I get the right person whom I will send an email requesting for a
meeting with him at his convenience (Saunders et al., 2011).
4.0 Outcomes and Significance
In conclusion the derivative instrument has become an important tool in the international market;
it plays a significant role in the economy by transferring risk from one party to another.
Derivatives stand accused as the main contributor of the financial crisis in the world. However, if
handled with great care they can bring substantial economic benefit. These tools help economic
mediator to enhance their risk management skills while fostering innovation culture that is aimed
to develop and increase market resilience to shock. The role of the banks and the tools
available for managing the risks has evolved during the last decade. This has opened the eyes
of regulators as they are faced with the challenge of controlling various exposures facing
financial institutions. Regulators have come up with new regulations that are aimed at
preventing the taking of excessive risk while slowing the financial innovation. This is important
for the banks as exposure has a potential to split over to the economy and cause another crisis.
While writing this proposal, the various challenges were encountered i.e. how to formulate a
descriptive mixed method research question using sequential approach and writing research
methodology. However, it was less demanding while writing literature review. In conclusion, the
link between derivative and the financial crisis need to be explored further as a stand-alone
topic.
18. 15
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