A foolproof Way to Estimate a Software Project
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Let's face the facts and admit it: Estimating how long it will take to build software is hard. Why is estimation so hard? Well there are some reasons for that. Many people tend to be optimistic about how long it will take to do a task. Not surprising when we learn the way memory works. It tends to skew our experiences from old projects. We often forget the many small setbacks encountered. Another reason is that many tasks are not included in the initial estimate. They only become visible over time. Does that mean that estimation is impossible and a waste of time? Not at all. Many software development activities are commercial activities. Starting something without even a rough estimate of what the costs and timeline will be is risky at best.
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A foolproof Way to Estimate a Software Project
- 1. A fool proof way to Estimate aSoftware Project Maurice de Beijer @mauricedb
- 2. Maurice de Beijer The Problem Solver Microsoft MVP Freelance developer/instructor Helping startups Currently at https://someday.com/ Twitter: @mauricedb Web: https://www.TheProblemSolver.dev E-mail: maurice.de.beijer@gmail.com 2 © ABL - The Problem Solver
- 3. Topics No Estimates? Program evaluation and review technique Three-point estimation OpenAI and ChatGPT Team size
- 5. Can we learn from history?
- 7. Apollo & Planning Photo by NASA on Unsplash
- 8. Apollo & Planning Photo by NASA on Unsplash
- 9. Program evaluation and review technique
- 10. Program evaluation and review technique PERT is a method of analyzing the tasks involved in completing a given project, especially the time needed to complete each task, and to identify the minimum time needed to complete the total project. It incorporates uncertainty by making it possible to schedule a project while not knowing precisely the details and durations of all the activities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique
- 12. Three-point estimation The three-point estimation technique is used in management and information systems applications for the construction of an approximate probability distribution representing the outcome of future events, based on very limited information. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-point_estimation
- 13. Assumption It will probably take 3 days plus or minus 2 to do a task. The average is 3 days!
- 14. Reality It will probably take 3 days to do a task. If everything goes well just 1 day. But it could take up to 9 days if we are unlucky. The average is 3,66 days!
- 16. Three-point Estimation Activity Predecessor Time estimates Expected time Opt. (o) Normal (m) Pess. (p) A — 2 4 6 4.00 B — 3 5 9 5.33 C A 4 5 7 5.17 D A 4 6 10 6.33 E B, C 4 5 7 5.17 F D 3 4 8 4.50 G E 3 5 8 5.17
- 18. What Activities? Photo by Dollar Gill on Unsplash
- 19. The Magical Number Seven, Plus or MinusTwo: SomeLimitsonOurCapacityfor ProcessingInformation Miller's law
- 20. What Activities? Photo by petr sidorov on Unsplash
- 21. Can we add from the future?
- 22. The future Photo by Ameer Basheer on Unsplash
- 23. AI is very good at cancer detection Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash
- 24. OpenAI ChatGPT Photo by Jonathan Kemper on Unsplash
- 25. Generate a list of tasks
- 26. Generate tasks
- 27. ChatGTP Prompts
- 28. ChatGTP Prompts
- 31. Excel table
- 36. Team size
- 37. Team size “Nine women can't make a baby in one month” “Adding manpower to a software project that is behind schedule delays it even longer” -- Brooks's laws
- 38. Team size Start with a small and experienced team Add some less experienced developers after a while Is the project is struggling at the end? Don’t add more developers! Instead remove less capable developers! ☞ “Less capable” does not mean “Less experienced” ☜
- 39. Conclusion No Estimates usually doesn’t work PERT works well even with a lot of uncertain tasks ChatGPT will help you find and estimate tasks Keep the team size as small as possible Specially when struggling with the final delivery
- 40. Maurice de Beijer @mauricedb maurice.de.beijer @gmail.com © ABL - The Problem Solver 40
Editor's Notes
- US Virginia-class submarine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_submarine
- September 12, 1962
- July 20, 1969
- Developed by the US Navy in 1957
- I want you to become my Prompt Creator. Your goal is to help me craft the best possible prompt for my needs. The prompt will be used by you, ChatGPT. You will follow the following process: 1. Your first response will be to ask me what the prompt should be about. I will provide my answer, but we will need to improve it through continual iterations by going through the next steps. 2. Based on my input, you will generate 3 sections. a) Revised prompt (provide your rewritten prompt. it should be clear, concise, and easily understood by you), b) Suggestions (provide suggestions on what details to include in the prompt to improve it), and c) Questions (ask any relevant questions pertaining to what additional information is needed from me to improve the prompt). 3. We will continue this iterative process with me providing additional information to you and you updating the prompt in the Revised prompt section until it's complete.