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A diamond is forever and other fairy tales
- 1. 適婚男女必看
- 2. 擇 偶
- 3. 年齡不是問題
- 4. 身高不是距離
- 5. 體重不是壓力
- 6. 宗教不是困擾
- 7. 國別不是障礙
- 8. 膚色不是藉口
- 9. 職業沒有差距
- 10. 生肖不是天命
- 11. 金錢不是能力
- 12. 性別沒有關係
- 13. 若是兩情相悅， 神馬都是浮雲 !
- 16. 全國聘禮地圖
- 18. 終於要結婚囉 !!
- 19. 婚慶業 (Wedding Industry) 在美國是一門大生意。
- 20. 總部設於澳洲墨爾本的市場研究機構 IBISWorld 表示： 2016 年在美國的婚禮業收入預計將超過 580 億美元。
- 21. The Knot.com 是最受歡迎的一站式婚禮策劃服務之一， 1996 年創建，很快成為美國婚禮策劃的領軍品牌。 策劃婚禮所需的所有東西，如，婚紗，婚禮的具體操作， 靈感，照片，在 The Knot.com 裏面你都能找到。
- 22. 根據頂級婚禮網站 TheKnot.com 每年進行的全國調查， 2015 年婚禮平均成本為 32,641 美元。
- 27. 在 1959 年，新娘雜誌的建議， 夫婦要花 2 個月為他們的婚禮做準備， 並公布了一份包括 22 項需要完成任務的清單。
- 28. 到 20 世紀 90 年代，新娘雜誌的建議， 夫婦要花 12 個月為他們的婚禮做準備， 並公布了一份包括 44 項需要完成任務的清單。
- 30. 幾個最知名的營銷活動是由 全球性的鑽石公司 De Beers 所推出。
- 31. 在 20 世紀 30 年代後期，戴比爾斯創造了一個口號 “ 鑽石恆久遠，一顆永留傳 ”
- 32. 1999 年它被廣告時代 ( Advertising Age) 雜誌 評比為本世紀的第一名口號。
- 35. 20 世紀 80 年代，戴比爾斯推出另一個有影響力的廣 告，目的想要增加花在一個訂婚戒指金額標準的口號 標語，“用兩個月的薪水來換取永恆，難道不划算嗎 ？ “
- 40. 在 2012 年，僅僅就美國一個國家， 人們的鑽石開支已經達到了 70 億美元。
- 42. 2014 年 2 位美國 Emory 大學的經濟學教授們 研究婚禮花費 ( 包括在訂婚戒指和婚禮上的花費 ) 和 婚姻的持續時間之間的關係。
- 43. 主要作者是 美國 喬治亞州 亞特蘭大市 埃默里大學 (Emory University) 經濟學系的副教授 安德魯 · 法蘭西斯 (Andrew M. Francis) 。
- 44. 另一位作者是 美國 喬治亞州 亞特蘭大市 埃默里大學 (Emory University) 經濟學系的副教授 雨果‧米亞倫 (Hugo M. Mialon) 。
- 45. Francis, Andrew M. and Mialon, Hugo M., ‘A Diamond is Forever’ and Other Fairy Tales: The Relationship between Wedding Expenses and Marriage Duration (September 15, 2014): the Economic Inquiry (Volume 53, Issue 4, pages 1919–1930, October 2015). 研究結果發表於 2015 年 3 月《經濟探究》期刊。
- 46. 研究的數據和方法
- 48. 利用問卷調查來收集相關的數據。 問卷包含大約 40 個問題，涵蓋了與某人當前婚姻或 第一次婚姻 ( 如果離婚或結婚超過一次 ) 有關的主題。 問卷可在 5 分鐘內完成。
- 49. 具體來說，收集的數據包括： 婚姻狀況，婚姻狀況，孩子，時間長短， 婚禮提議時的感覺和態度，蜜月，訂婚戒指，婚禮， 婚禮費用，現在年齡，婚姻年齡，性別， 種族 / 民族， 教育，就業，家庭收入，居住地區，參與宗教活動以及 受訪者和伴侶之間的年齡、種族和教育的差異。
- 52. mTurk 是一個群眾外包平台，需求者發布短期工作需求， 工人在完成工作後領得工資。 群眾外包 (Crowdsourcing) 一詞是由 Jeff Howe 於 2006 年提出， 它的概念是將一些需要仰賴人力完成的工作透過特定的平 台，外包給網路上不特定的一群自願者， 處理的內容通常是較瑣碎、需要大量人力 且電腦程式難以取代的工作。
- 54. 群眾外包 (Crowdsourcing) 的好處 由於外包平台上的參與群眾多半不具特定專業背景， 且多半是利用平時閒暇之餘參與外包工作 以索取低廉的酬勞。 對於雇主而言，相較於僱請專人處理的傳統做法， 利用群眾外包的多工方式 不僅成本低廉，更提升了處理速度， 同時仍可得到與傳統作法相當的工作品質。 而對於群眾外包的工作者來說， 此平台不僅成了使 用網路並消磨時間的一項新選擇， 同時也是增加額外收入的管道。
- 55. Amazon Mechanical Turk 是目前 最廣為使用的群眾外包 平台之一。 主要運作方式是讓委託工作者 (Requester) 將需要透過 人類智能完成的繁雜任務切成細小瑣碎的工作， 並在平台上設計相關網頁，透過平台提供的指令工具 將工作以 Human Intelligent Task (HIT) 的形式 公開發布至外包平台， 讓工作者 (Turker) 透過存取網頁的方式完成工作。
- 56. 越來越多的經濟學家和其他社會科學家 利用 mTurk 進行實驗和調查的研究。 mTurk 的一個優點是 它提供了對大型和多樣化參與者的一個低成本訪問。 已經有研究證實 mTurk 的工人樣本比現實便利樣本、 標準互聯網樣本和典型大學樣本更能代表美國人口。 此外，使用 mTurk 進行的實驗其內部和外部有效性 已被證明與實驗室和實地實驗相當。
- 57. 數據收集於 2014 年 7 月和 8 月進行。 提供 mTurk 工人 $ 0.50 至 $ 0.75 完成一份調查。 共有 3370 人完成了調查。 排除了具有非美國 IP 地址、報告有同性婚姻、 報告結婚年齡低於 13 歲或高於 60 歲的受訪者。 還排除了填些調查不足 2 分鐘的受訪者， 並對婚姻夥伴的年齡提供不一致的回答 ( 年齡問題在問卷開始和結束時提出 ) 。 在過濾這些之後，最終樣品由 3,151 個受訪者組成。
- 58. 表 1 顯示了我們亞馬遜 mTurk 樣本中所有變量的平均值， 以及 2012 年美國社區調查 (ACS) 中未婚人數的可用相應變量。
- 64. 研究的結果
- 65. 研究的結果顯示： 婚姻的延續時間與訂婚戒指和婚禮上的花費 成反比的關係。 在男性樣本中，花 2000-4000 美元購買訂婚戒指， 相較於 500-2000 美元支出， 前者的離婚風險率是後者的 1.3 倍。 婚禮消費 5000-10000 美元，相較于 1000 美元以下的支出，前者離婚風險率是後者的 2 倍。
- 67. 研究人員將研究結果輸出， 再交由數據專家藍道爾 (Randall S. Olson) 進一步把這些研究數據視覺化。 藍道爾‧歐森 (Randall Olson) 博士是賓夕法尼亞大學的 資深數據科學家，他開發最先進的機器學習算法， 專注於生物醫學應用。
- 69. 1. 求婚前交往幾年比較好？
- 70. 指標 1 ：交往 3 年以上
- 72. 例如，圖中的「交往 2~3 年，稍低 20% 」的意思就是 ： 一對伴侶交往 2~3 年後， 他們離婚的機率比交往 1 年以下的伴侶低了 20% 。
- 75. 指標 2 ：賺多點比較好
- 76. 夫妻倆人收入越高越不容易離婚
- 80. 一起上教堂夫妻婚恩關係更穩固
- 84. 指標 4 ：錢財和外貌不太重要
- 89. 5. 婚宴來賓客數多寡重要嗎？
- 91. 婚禮賓客越多越不容易離婚
- 93. 那些決定私奔的伴侶，他們離婚的機率 比宴請 200 多位賓客的伴侶高出 12.5 倍多。
- 95. 6. 婚禮花費越高越好嗎？
- 96. 指標 6 ：別被婚禮廣告騙了！
- 99. 那麼到底要用什麼招待賓客呢？
- 100. 這份研究的驚人發現就是： 美國當地平均花在婚禮上的費用是 3 萬美金 ( 折台幣約 91.7 萬元 ) ， 但昂貴的花費卻沒帶來穩定的好婚姻。
- 102. 研究發現兩性中 以女性特別容易因為豪奢婚禮感到壓力。 研究調查就顯示，花了 2 萬美金辦婚禮的夫妻， 女方會比僅花 1 萬以下的夫妻檔更想要離婚。
- 104. 史上最昂貴婚禮排行榜
- 105. #12 Catherine Zeta-Jones and Michael Douglas 在 2005 年為 150 萬美元 ，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 160 萬美元。 13 年後離婚
- 106. 10-carat Fred Leighton Vintage diamond ring Price: $1 million
- 107. #11 Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes 在 2006 年為 200 萬美元 ，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 220 萬美元。 5 年後離婚
- 108. 5-carat Edwardian-cut oval-shaped diamond Price: $1.5 million
- 109. #10 Christina Aguilera and Jordan Bratman 在 2005 年為 200 萬美元 ，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 220 萬美元。 5 年後離婚
- 110. #9 Elizabeth Hurley and Arun Nayar 在 2007 年為 250 萬美元 ，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 260 萬美元。 4 年後離婚
- 111. #8 Paul McCartney and Heather Mills 在 2002 年為 300 萬美元 ，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 360 萬美元。 5 年後離婚
- 112. #7 Elizabeth Taylor and Larry Fortensky 在 1991 年為 250 萬美元 ，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 400 萬美元。 5 年後離婚
- 113. The price of the ring is about $8.8million.
- 114. #6 Liza Minnelli and David Gest 在 2002 年為 350 萬美元 ，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 420 萬美元。 16 個月後離婚
- 115. #5 Chelsea Clinton and Marc Mezvinsky 在 2010 年為 500 萬美元 。
- 116. #4 Wayne Rooney and Coleen McLoughlin 在 2008 年為 800 萬美元 。
- 117. #3 Prince William and Kate Middleton 在 2011 年 4 月 29 日為 3400 萬美元， 其中大部分用於安全。
- 118. 12-carat sapphire ring surrounded by 14 solitaire diamonds, set in 18-carat white gold Price: $500,000
- 119. #2 Vanisha Mittal and Amit Bhatia 在 2005 年為 6000 萬美 元，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 6600 萬美元。 9 年後離婚
- 120. #1 Prince Charles and Lady Diana 在 1981 年為 4800 萬美 元，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 1.1 億美元。 15 年後離婚
- 121. 還有…
- 122. Brad Pitt and Jennifer Aniston 在 2000 年為 100 萬美元。 5 年後離婚
- 123. KHLOE KARDASHIAN & LAMAR ODOM 在 2009 年為 100 萬美元。 4 年後離婚
- 125. Eddie Murphy and Nicole Mitchell 在 1993 年為 150 萬美元。 12 年後離婚
- 126. Madonna and Guy Richie 在 2000 年為 150 萬美元。 8 年後離婚
- 127. Pierce Brosnan and Keely Shaye Smith 在 2001 年為 150 萬美元。
- 128. Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren 在 2004 年為 150 萬美元。 6 年後離婚
- 129. Donald Trump and Marla Maples 在 1993 年為 200 萬美元。 4 年後離婚
- 130. Donald Trump and Melania Knauss 在 2005 年為 100 萬美元。
- 131. 12-carat Graff emerald-cut diamond ring Price: $1 million
- 132. Elton John and David Furnish 在 2005 年為 200 萬美元。
- 133. Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel 在 2012 年為 650 萬美元。
- 134. Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries 在 2011 年為 1000 萬美元 。 72 天後離婚
- 135. Kim’s engagement ring from Humphries : a 20.5 carat with the hefty price tag of $2 million
- 136. Kim Kardashian and Kanye West 在 2014 年為 1200 萬美元 。
- 137. 15-carat Lorraine Schwartz diamond engagement ring. $8 million.
- 138. Michael Jordan and Yvette Prieto 在 2013 年為 1000 萬美元 。
- 139. Petra Ecclestone and James Stunt 在 2011 年為 2000 萬美元 。
- 140. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Makotum and Princess Salama 在 1981 年為 450 萬美元 ，根據通貨膨脹調整後 等於現在 1 億美元。
- 142. 第十名：刘涛 王珂 --400 万
- 143. 第九名：大 S 汪小菲 -- 600 万元
- 144. 第八名：刘恺威 杨幂 --1000 万
- 145. 第七名：黎姿 马廷强 --1000 万
- 146. 第六名：吴奇隆 刘诗诗 -- 2000 万
- 147. 第五名：刘嘉玲 梁朝伟 --3500 万
- 148. 第四名：陈慧琳 刘建浩 --4710 万
- 149. 第三名：李嘉欣 许晋亨 --1 亿元
- 150. 第二名：黄晓明 Baby --2 亿元
- 151. 第一名：李家诚 徐子淇 --7 亿元
- 152. 7. 有無蜜月旅行會有影響嗎？
- 153. 指標 7 ：蜜月的錢絕對別省！
- 157. 8. 夫妻有生小孩會有影響嗎？
- 159. 生育小孩可大大降低離婚幾率。
- 162. 在婚姻中有孩子 - 另一個良好計劃的婚姻的明確標誌 - 可以減少你離婚的機會比在你在結婚之前有孩子。
- 164. 看來奉子成婚比我們預期的更穩定！
- 165. 9. 夫妻年齡的差距有影響嗎？
- 166. 指標 9 ：夫妻年齡相近的婚姻更長久 !
- 167. 夫妻年齡差距越小，離婚的幾率也越低。
- 168. 夫妻之間的年齡差距越大， 婚姻越可能以離婚收場。 與你的伴侶的年齡差距只有 1 - 5 年不用擔心。 但如果你年紀大到可以成為另一半的父母， 那麼你的婚姻可能會有麻煩。
- 170. 吳奇隆劉詩詩差 17 歲
- 171. 說起高曉松和小他 21 歲的嬌妻 ( 今年 25 歲 ) ， 算得上是“父女戀”曝光率較高的一對了。
- 173. 1936 年出生的謝賢與比他小 47 歲上海女孩 Coco 的戀情， 堪稱娛樂圈忘年戀史上的經典範本。
- 174. 一名來自南非茨瓦內的 8 歲男童與 61 歲的老婦結婚。 據稱這樁婚事是他已逝祖先的“鬼魂”要求的。 這相差足足 53 歲的婚姻實在令人震撼。
- 175. 86 歲的《花花公子》的創始人休 · 海夫納 (Hugh Hefner) ， 2012 年 12 月 31 日與 26 歲的嫩模 Crystal Harris 結婚。
- 177. 10. 夫妻教育程度的差距有影響嗎？
- 178. 指標 10 ：教育程度相同更長久 !
- 179. 教育成度差距提高離婚幾率。
- 181. 特別有趣的是，教育差異對女性比男性更嚴重： 當女性與配偶存在教育差異時， 離婚可能性高出 50 ％ 。 當男性與配偶存在教育差異時， 離婚可能性高出 32 ％ 。
- 183. Back-ups
Editor's Notes
- In 2014, wedding industry revenues are projected to exceed $50 billion in the United States (IBISWorld, 2014). 在2014年，在美國的婚禮業收入預計將超過500億美元（IBISWorld，2014）。
- The Knot.com是最受歡迎的一站式婚禮策劃服務之一，1996年創建，很快成為美國婚禮策劃的領軍品牌。你策劃婚禮所需的所有東西，如，婚紗，婚禮的具體操作，靈感，照片，在The Knot.com裏面你都能找到。
- According to a national survey conducted annually by the top wedding website TheKnot.com, the average wedding cost was $29,858 in 2013 (TheKnot, 2014). 根據頂級婚禮網站TheKnot.com每年進行的全國調查，2013年婚禮平均成本為29,858美元（TheKnot，2014）。
- The wedding industry has grown substantially throughout the twentieth century in part due to the rise of consumerism and industry efforts to commodify love and romance. 婚禮業在二十世紀發展迅速，部分原因是由於消費主義和婚禮業界努力將愛情和浪漫商品化。
- One example of this was the emergence of bridal magazines, especially Bride’s, which played an important role in developing a platform for many service providers to reach consumers and in promoting the necessity of a lavish wedding for a fairy tale marriage (Howard, 2006; Otnes and Pleck, 2003).
- One example of this was the emergence of bridal magazines, especially Bride’s, which played an important role in developing a platform for many service providers to reach consumers and in promoting the necessity of a lavish wedding for a fairy tale marriage (Howard, 2006; Otnes and Pleck, 2003). 其中一個例子是婚姻雜誌的出現，特別是新娘雜誌(Bride’s)，在為許多服務提供商開發一個平台來接觸消費者和促進為童話婚姻舉行豪華婚禮的必要性方面發揮了重要作用（Howard，2006; Otnes 和Pleck，2003）。
- In 1959, Bride’s recommended that couples set aside 2 months to prepare for their wedding and published a checklist with 22 tasks for them to complete. 在1959年，新娘雜誌的建議，夫婦要花2個月為他們的婚禮做準備，並公布了一份包括22項需要完成任務的清單。 By the 1990s, the magazine recommended 12 months of wedding preparation and published a checklist with 44 tasks to complete (Otnes and Pleck, 2003). 到20世紀90年代，新娘雜誌推薦12個月的婚禮準備，並出版了一份44個需要完成任務的清單（Otnes和Pleck，2003）。
- In 1959, Bride’s recommended that couples set aside 2 months to prepare for their wedding and published a checklist with 22 tasks for them to complete. 在1959年，新娘雜誌的建議，夫婦要花2個月為他們的婚禮做準備，並公布了一份包括22項需要完成任務的清單。 By the 1990s, the magazine recommended 12 months of wedding preparation and published a checklist with 44 tasks to complete (Otnes and Pleck, 2003). 到20世紀90年代，新娘雜誌推薦12個月的婚禮準備，並出版了一份44個需要完成任務的清單（Otnes和Pleck，2003）。
- Another example of industry efforts to commodify love and romance is that of marketing campaigns for diamond engagement rings. 婚禮業界努力將愛情和浪漫商品化的另一個例子是鑽石訂婚戒指的營銷活動。
- 戴比爾斯（De Beers）是世界鑽石業的卡特爾、跨國公司，一條龍主宰了全球4成的鑽石開採和貿易。De Beers在1888年由塞西爾·羅德斯創辦，現在公司總部在盧森堡，是一家私人公司。其集團下的一間子公司鑽石諮詢中心，負責市場推廣。 Several of the most well-known campaigns were by De Beers, the global diamond company. 幾個最知名的營銷活動是由全球性的鑽石公司De Beers所推出。
- In the late 1930s, De Beers created the slogan “a diamond is forever,” which was rated the number one slogan of the century by Advertising Age (1999). 在20世紀30年代後期，戴比爾斯創造了一個口號“一顆鑽石是永遠的”，它被廣告時代（1999年）評為本世紀的第一個口號。
- In the late 1930s, De Beers created the slogan “a diamond is forever,” which was rated the number one slogan of the century by Advertising Age (1999). 在20世紀30年代後期，戴比爾斯創造了一個口號“一顆鑽石是永遠的”，它被廣告時代（1999年）評為本世紀的第一個口號。
- The campaign aimed to link the purchase of a diamond engagement ring to the hope of a long-lasting marriage. 這個廣告的目的在將購買鑽石訂婚戒指與希望長期持久的婚姻聯繫起來。
- In the 1980s, De Beers introduced another influential campaign, which sought to increase the standard for how much should be spent on an engagement ring with slogans such as “Isn’t two months’ salary a small price to pay for something that lasts forever?” (Cawley, 2014; Sullivan, 2013). 在20世紀80年代，戴比爾斯推出了另一個有影響力的廣告，目的想要增加花在一個訂婚戒指金額標準的口號標語，“用兩個月的薪水來換取永恆，難道不划算嗎？ “（Cawley，2014; Sullivan，2013）。 難道不值得用二個月的薪水來換取某些永恆不變的事物嗎？
- 二次世界大戰前，在西方國家，只有10%的訂婚戒指鑲有鑽石，在20世紀末，80%的訂婚戒都是鑽戒。
- These marketing efforts were effective. Prior to World War II, in Western countries, only 10% of engagement rings contained a diamond. By the end of the century, about 80% did (Cawley, 2014). In 2012, total expenditures on diamond rings were roughly $7 billion in the United States (Sullivan, 2013).
- These marketing efforts were effective. Prior to World War II, in Western countries, only 10% of engagement rings contained a diamond. By the end of the century, about 80% did (Cawley, 2014). In 2012, total expenditures on diamond rings were roughly $7 billion in the United States (Sullivan, 2013).
- However, the industry message that associates wedding expenditures with longer-lasting marriages has never been statistically evaluated. 然而，將婚禮支出與持久婚姻聯繫起來的行業信息從未得到統計評估。
- In this paper, we estimate the relationship between wedding spending (including spending on engagement rings and wedding ceremonies) and the duration of marriages. 在本文中，我們估計婚禮花費（包括在訂婚戒指和婚禮上的花費）和婚姻的持續時間之間的關係。
- Andrew Francis-Tan Associate Professor
- Department of Economics, Emory University, Atlanta Hugo Mialon Associate Professor and Director of Undergraduate Studies
- 數據科學家藍道‧歐森（Randal Olson）最近將安德魯‧法蘭西斯（Andrew Francis）和雨果‧米亞倫（Hugo Mialon）兩位學者在在美國埃默里大學進行的「影響離婚因素」研究論文圖表化。 這項研究調查了美國三千對已婚夫婦，並分析受試者的薪水收入、宗教活動出席、外貌對另一半的吸引程度、參加婚禮的賓客人數以及其他指標，來判斷這些因素是否與離婚有關。
- 訪問了3000名擁有一次或以上婚姻的美國成年人，
- Our study’s target population is adult US residents who have ever been married to someone of the opposite sex and are not widowed. 研究對像人口是成年美國居民，曾經與異性的人結婚，並且目前不是寡居。 訪問了3000名擁有一次或以上婚姻的美國成年人，
- Data collection involved implementation of a survey questionnaire. 數據收集涉及實施調查問卷。 The questionnaire contained approximately 40 questions and covered topics pertaining to a person’s current marriage or first marriage (if divorced or married more than once). 問卷包含大約40個問題，涵蓋了與某人當前婚姻或第一次婚姻（如果離婚或結婚超過一次）有關的主題。
- Specifically, we gathered information on marital status, marriage duration, children, length of time dated, feelings and attitudes at the time of wedding proposal, honeymoon, engagement ring expenses, wedding attendance, total wedding expenses, age, age at marriage, gender, race/ethnicity, education, employment, household income, region of residence, religious attendance, and differences in age, race, and education between respondent and partner. 具體來說，收集的數據包括婚姻狀況，婚姻狀況，孩子，時間長短，婚禮提議時的感覺和態度，蜜月，訂婚戒指，婚禮，婚禮費用，現在年齡，婚姻年齡，性別， 種族/民族，教育，就業，家庭收入，居住地區，參與宗教活動以及受訪者和伴侶之間的年齡、種族和教育的差異。 The questionnaire could be completed in 5 minutes. 問卷可在5分鐘內完成。
- 此次調查使用Qualtrics網路調查平台進行，並使用亞馬遜運營的在線勞動力市場Mechanical Turk（mTurk）進行管理。
- 此次調查使用Qualtrics網路調查平台進行，並使用亞馬遜運營的在線勞動力市場Mechanical Turk（mTurk）進行管理。
- 。而對於群眾外包的工作者來說，此平台不僅成了使 用網路並消磨時間的一項新選擇，同時也是增加額外收入的管道。
- The survey was designed using Qualtrics and administered using Mechanical Turk (mTurk), an online labor market operated by Amazon. On mTurk, requesters post short tasks that workers complete for a wage. A growing number of economists and other social scientists are making use of mTurk for experimental and survey research (Arceneaux, 2012; Gorsuch, 2014; Huber, Hill, and Lenz, 2012; Kuziemko, Norton, Saez, and Stantcheva, 2013; Oster, Shoulson, and Dorsey, 2013). An advantage of mTurk is that it provides low-cost access to a large and diverse subject pool. Samples of mTurk workers have been found to be more representative of the US population than in-person convenience samples, standard internet samples, and typical college samples (Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz, 2012; Buhrmester, Kwang, and Gosling, 2011). 此次調查使用Qualtrics網路調查平台進行，並使用亞馬遜運營的在線勞動力市場Mechanical Turk（mTurk）進行管理。 在mTurk，需求者發布短期工作需求，工人在完成工作後領得工資。 越來越多的經濟學家和其他社會科學家利用mTurk進行實驗和調查的研究（Arceneaux，2012; Gorsuch，2014; Huber，Hill和Lenz，2012; Kuziemko，Norton，Saez和Stantcheva，2013; Oster， Shoulson和Dorsey，2013）。 mTurk的一個優點是它提供了對大型和多樣化參與者的一個低成本訪問。 已經證實mTurk的工人樣本比現實便利樣本、標準互聯網樣本和典型的大學樣本（Berinsky，Huber和Lenz，2012; Buhrmester，Kwang和Gosling，2011）更能代表美國人口。 Moreover, the internal and external validity of experiments conducted with mTurk have been shown to be comparable to that of laboratory and field experiments (Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser, 2011). Of course, for our purposes, a large national probability sample would be preferable. However, to our knowledge, no existing national probability sample contains questions regarding wedding expenses. 此外，使用mTurk進行的實驗其內部和外部有效性已被證明與實驗室和實地實驗（Horton，Rand和Zeckhauser，2011）相當。 當然，出於我們的目的，大型的全國概率樣本將是優選的。 然而，據我們所知，現有的國家概率樣本沒有包含婚禮費用的問題。
- Data collection was conducted in July and August 2014. We offered mTurk workers $0.50 to $0.75 to complete the survey. Altogether, 3,370 people completed the survey. We excluded respondents who had a non-US IP address, reported having a same-sex marriage, reported an age at marriage of less than 13 years old, or were above age 60. We also excluded respondents who finished the survey in less than 2 minutes and provided inconsistent responses about age of partner, which was asked at the beginning and end of the questionnaire. After these filters, the final sample consisted of 3,151 respondents.
- Table 1 displays means of all variables in our Amazon mTurk sample and of available corresponding variables for ever-married persons in the 2012 American Community Survey (ACS). 表1顯示了我們亞馬遜mTurk樣本中所有變量的平均值，以及2012年美國社區調查中未婚人數的可用相應變量 （ACS）。
- Hazard model predicting marital dissolution as a function of wedding expenses, population-weighted regressions 以婚姻費用、人口加權當作回歸函數建立的預測婚姻解體的危險模型
- Hazard model predicting marital dissolution, recently-married sub-sample, population-weighted regressions 預測婚姻解體的危險模型，最近結婚的子樣本、人口加權回歸
- Predicting wedding debt stress, population-weighted regressions 預測婚禮債務壓力，人口加權回歸
- Appendix Table 1. Hazard model predicting marital dissolution as a function of wedding expenses, no population weights 附錄表1.預測婚姻解除作為婚姻費用的函數的危險模型，沒有人口權重
- Appendix Table 2. Hazard model predicting marital dissolution as a function of wedding expenses, recently-married sub-sample, no population weights
- we find evidence that marriage duration is inversely associated with spending on the engagement ring and wedding ceremony. 我們發現婚姻的延續時間與訂婚戒指和婚禮上的花費成反比關係的證據。
- The wedding industry has consistently sought to link wedding spending with long-lasting marriages. This paper is the first to examine this relationship statistically. We find that marriage duration is either not associated or inversely associated with spending on the engagement ring and wedding ceremony. Overall, our findings provide little evidence to support the validity of the wedding industry’s general message that connects expensive weddings with positive marital outcomes. In future research, it may be useful to construct a population-representative longitudinal sample of dating couples, following them through the multiple stages of their relationship and gathering prospective information on wedding expenses and marital quality. 婚禮業一直尋求將婚禮支出與長期婚姻聯繫起來。 本文是第一個研究這種關係的統計學。 我們發現，婚姻時間與訂婚戒指和婚禮上的花費不相關或相反。 總的來說，我們的研究結果提供了很少的證據支持婚禮行業的一般信息，連接昂貴的婚禮與積極的婚姻結果的有效性。 在未來的研究中，需要建立對參與夫婦的人口代表的縱向樣本，追蹤他們的關係的多個階段並收集關於婚禮費用和婚姻質量的預期信息。
- Dr. Randy Olson is a Senior Data Scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, where he develops state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms with a focus on biomedical applications. 藍道爾‧歐森
- The bill was $1.5 million in 2005, or $1.6 million when adjusted for inflation.
- The bill was $2 million in 2006, or $2.2 million when adjusted for inflation. 該法案在2006年為200萬美元，根據通貨膨脹調整後為220萬美元。 * Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes spent £1.8 million on their wedding in a 15 century Italian castle—and they split five years later, though this could have been due to the whole Scientology thing.
- The bill was $2 million in 2005, or $2.2 million when adjusted for inflation. The bride was a pop star The groom was a music producer * Christina Aguilera and Jordan Bratman hired a private vineyard and a 14 piece orchestra for their £1.2 million wedding. Their marriage only lasted five years. ============================================================================= Christina Aguilera & Jordan Bratman: November 19, 2005. $2 million. Christina and Jordan had a son, Max, but split in 2011.
- The bill was $2.5 million in 2007, or $2.6 million when adjusted for inflation. The Bride: Supermodel and movie star The Groom: Senior VP of Tyco * Elizabeth Hurley and Arun Nayar wed in 2007 in a lavish extravaganza in India, which lasted 8 days and cost £1.5m- and it ended in a quickie divorce after 4 years.
- The bill was $3 million in 2002, or $3.6 million when adjusted for inflation. The bride was a PETA activist and former model The groom was the most successful songwriter in history =========================================================================== Paul McCartney and Heather Mills: June 11, 2002. $4.2 million. According to Forbes Magazine, the Beatles icon spent a bundle on his wedding to second wife, model and amputee Heather. Sadly, Sir Paul spent much more on the bitter divorce (final in 2008)! ========================================================= the couple separated in 2006 and were divorced in 2008.
- The bill was $2.5 million in 1991, or $4 million when adjusted for inflation. The bride was an iconic movie star The groom was a construction worker
- The bill was $3.5 million in 2002, or $4.2 million when adjusted for inflation. The bride was a Broadway star and the daughter of Judy Garland The groom was a music producer David Gest 最為人所知的是他與 Liza Minnelli 的婚姻，最攪笑的, David Gest 是 Michael 介紹給 Liza Minnelli (Liza 亦是 Michael 的好友）認識的, 他們結婚一年多，最後離婚收場, 因為 Liza Minnelli 發覺 David Gest 原來是 gay 的!Liza 與 David Gest 離婚後問 Michael: "為何你不一早告訴我 David 是 gay?" Michael 很攪笑的回答: "我看見你們一起很開心, 以為你已知道他是 gay 啊!" (笑死我了, 這個 Michael 真是大整蠱, hahaha.....) 但外國人文化很得意, 他們 take it easy, 沒有真的生氣對方, Liza 依然與 Michael 是好朋友! ====================================================================================================== Liza Minnelli and David Gest: March 16, 2002, $4.2 million. But Liza and David had a nasty split a year later and officially divorced in 2007. ======================================================================================================= But even $3.5 million doesn’t buy happiness – they separated the following year, and were divorced in 2007.
- The bill was around $5 million in 2010. The bride was the daughter of President Bill Clinton The groom was an investment banker (Goldman Sachs and then G3) and childhood friend ================================================================================================= Chelsea Clinton and Marc Mezvinsky: July 31, 2010. $4.8 million.
- The bill was $8 million in 2008. The bride was a working-class British girl who started dating Rooney at age 16, reportedly going to see Austin Powers 2 on their first date. The groom was perhaps the highest paid footballer ever.
- The bill will be an estimated $34 million, most of it going to security.該法案將估計為3400萬美元，其中大部分將用於安全。 The bride is a 29-year-old commoner who has become a worldwide celebrity. The groom is the oldest son of Prince Charles and the second in line to the throne of England.
- The bill was $60 million in 2005, or $66 million when adjusted for inflation. The bride was the beautiful daughter of billionaire steel-magnate Lakshmi Mittal. The groom was a London-born i-banker, owner of Swordfish Investments. ======================================================================================== Vanisha Mittal and Amit Bhatia – $78 million Vanisha is the daughter of the second wealthiest person in India, while Amit is a banker. The couple was married 2004. Their wedding was held in Chateau Vaux le Vicomte, a 17th century palace in France. Though the official cost was not disclosed, reports estimate it at $60 to $78 million. ======================================================================================== 瓦尼莎·米塔爾(Vanisha Mittal)與阿米特·巴蒂亞(Amit Bhatia) 印度第二富豪之女和她的銀行家未婚夫阿米特·巴蒂亞(Amit Bhatia)先是在凡爾賽宮舉行訂婚儀式，揭開了一周慶典活動的帷幕。隨後的宴會在著名的杜樂麗花園(Jardin des Tuileries)舉行，宴會食物由從印度飛來的廚師準備。正式婚禮在距離17世紀的子爵城堡(Chateau Vaux le Vicomte)幾英里處舉行，宴會高潮部分，流行樂歌星凱莉·米洛(Kylie Minogue)在艾菲爾鐵塔的煙火映襯下獻演。
- The bill was $48 million in 1981, or $110 million when adjusted for inflation. 1981年的帳單是4,800萬美元，根據通貨膨脹調整後為1.1億美元。 The bride was a stunning blonde pre-school teacher, who immediately became a global icon. The groom was the oldest son of Queen Elizabeth II. Their marriage lasted 11 years; they separated in 1992 and divorced in 1996.
- Brad Pitt and Jennifer Aniston: July 29, 2000. $1 million. The Friends cutie and movie hunk’s marriage started out with such promise, as they wed on a Malibu estate with 50,000 flowers and a fireworks display. Cameron Diaz and Salma Hayek, plus Aniston’s Friends co-stars Courtney Cox and David Schwimmer were on the guest list. Aniston wore a Lawrence Steele floor-length white gown, accessorized by suede Manolo Blahnik sandals. As the world knows, they split in 2005 and Brad partnered up with Angelina Jolie; sources say Jen is now planning another wedding, to Justin Theroux. ==================================================== In July 2000 Brad Pitt married Jennifer Aniston. The wedding took place in Malibu, California and cost $1 million dollars. It’s not surprising the bill was so high considering the lobsters and champagne alone cost $300.000. Although this was thought to be the a marriage made in heaven, unfortunately the couple were divorced in 2005.
- KHLOE KARDASHIAN & LAMAR ODOM Khloe knew this Los Angeles Lakers basketball star a whole month before they decided to marry. Spending $1 million on this wedding back in 2009 started the party. Supposedly Lamar didn't stop partying until they split ways in 2013.
- Eddie Murphy and Nicole Mitchell: March 18, 1993. $1.5 million. Funnyman Eddie wed model Nicole Mitchell at New York’s famed Plaza Hotel before 500 guests, including Bruce Willis, Demi Moore and Prince. The hotel’s Grand Ballroom was re-carpeted in white and filled with flowers for the ceremony. The bride wore an off-the-shoulder white gown with French lace and a 12-foot-long train. After a lavish dinner, guests enjoyed dancing in the ballroom, which had been converted to a disco. The pair’s divorce was finalized in 2006. ============================================================== The couple went on to have 5 children together, and divorced in 2006 after being married for 12 years.
- Madonna and Guy Richie: December 22, 2000. $1.5 million. Madonna donned a tiara once worn by Princess Grace of Monaco to marry film director Guy at Scotland’s Skibo Castle. The couple booked all 21 rooms of the estate for famous friends including Gwyneth Paltrow, Rupert Everett, Sting and Trudie Styler. In addition to her tiara, Madonna wore a strapless cream silk gown by Stella McCartney while Guy and their son Rocco were outfitted in kilts. Madonna’s daughter Lourdes led the procession in bare feet. Guests danced the night away in a basement converted into a nightclub. ===================================================================== Madonna and Guy Ritchie exchanged their wedding vows in a 19th century castle in the Scottish Highlands in December 2000 before 55 guests. The ceremony began with Madonna’s daughter Lourdes preceding her mother up the aisle, scattering rose petals as she went. The bride wore an ivory silk gown by Stella McCartney, and the groom and the couple’s baby son wore traditional kilts. But this marriage turned out to be very stormy, and in early 2009 they were divorced. ====================================================================== MADONNA & GUY RITCHIE Many wondered how this marriage lasted as long as it did. Guy and Madonna were wed at a cost of $1.5 million in 2000. They had one child and adopted another. Guy and Madonna divorced in 2008.
- Pierce Brosnan and Keely Shaye Smith: August 4, 2001. $1.5 million. The James Bond actor wed the Unsolved Mysteries hostess in Ballintubber Abbey, a 13th-century Irish castle, and a Midsummer Night’s Dream-themed reception followed at Ashford Castle (where Pierce had put up the 120 guests). Bagpipers performed and everyone feasted on a six-tier carrot wedding cake modeled after the one served at the wedding of John and Jackie Kennedy. A fireworks display concluded the celebration. The couple will soon celebrate their 12th wedding anniversary.
- Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren: October 4, 2004. $1.5 million. The golf star wed former model Elin in a top-secret ceremony at the exclusive Sandy Lane Resort in Barbados. Woods rented the entire hotel and the island’s only helicopter charter company for privacy. The 120 guests included his basketball player pals Michael Jordan and Charles Barkley, who watched the couple wed in a white-netted pagoda decorated with roses. Highlights of the reception included a performance by Hootie and the Blowfish and fireworks. But the real fireworks were to come, as Tiger suffered an infidelity scandal and Elin divorced him (final in 2010). ================================================================== But sadly, after Tiger’s extra-marital affairs came to light the couple failed to work things out, and this once seemingly perfect marriage ended in divorce in 2010.
- Donald Trump and Marla Maples – $2 million Marla Maples was the second wife of Donald Trump and they were married in 1993. According to the associated press, the bridal diamond tiara alone costs $2 million. The bride’s wedding dress was a $100,000 Christian Dior. ================================================================== 唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)與瑪拉·梅普勒斯(Marla Maples) 1993年12月20日，唐納德在廣場飯店(Plaza Hotel)的豪華宴會廳(Grand Ballroom)迎娶了自己的第二任妻子——曾是歌舞女郎的瑪拉·梅普勒斯。 美聯社在第二天的新聞中說：“這場婚禮中被炒得火熱的都是特朗普的標誌性元素：高檔酒店、六英尺高的蛋糕、價值約200萬美元的新娘鑽石頭飾。” 這對夫婦于1997年離婚。
- Donald Trump and Melania Knauss: January 22, 2005. $1 million . It was no problem for the wealthy mogul to splash out for his third bride, model Melania Knauss. They said “I do” at the Bethesda by the Sea Episcopalian Church in Palm Beach, Florida. Melania wore a strapless Christian Dior gown made from 300 feet of satin beaded with 1,500 crystals; her 13-foot train weighed 50 pounds! Trump opened up his Mar-a-Lago estate for the 400 guests, including Rudy Giuliani, Barbara Walters and Regis Philbin, who were served dinner prepared by celebrity chef Jean-Georges Vongerichten. Third time’s the charm? The Apprentice star and Melania remain happily wed. ===================================================================================================== Three seems to be the charm for Donald J. Trump, whose early 2005 wedding in Palm Beach to Slovene model Melania Knauss was his third. ===================================================================================================== 唐納德·特朗普與梅拉尼亞·諾斯(Melania Knauss) 唐納德·特朗普的第三次婚禮迎娶的是模特梅拉尼亞·諾斯，婚禮在佛羅裏達州棕櫚灣的馬阿拉歌俱樂部(Mar-A-Lago)度假勝地舉行。 新娘婚紗是一款10萬美元的迪奧(Christian Dior)禮服，後擺長13英尺，面紗長16英尺。 婚禮場地的舞廳由一萬朵鮮花裝飾，賓客們可以享用魚子醬、金萬利(Grand Marnier)蛋糕以及水晶香檳。
- Elton John and David Furnish: December 21, 2005. $2 million. The pop star and his partner of 12 years wed at the Windsor town hall in England after the U.K. allowed same-sex couples to form civil partnerships. Then more than 600 of Elton and David’s closest friends showed up at the lavish reception at their Windsor mansion to watch Elton serenade his husband! It was reported that the reception cost about $2,500 per head. The happy pair is now raising two children together.
- Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel: October 19, 2012. $6.5 million.
- Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries – $10 Million Kardashian married Humphries in 2011 in an over the top ceremony that every major magazine and entertainment outlet wanted to cover. The couple had one of the shortest celebrity marriages ever, lasting a total of 72 days. ================================================================================== Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries: August 20, 2011. $6 million. The over the top event became notorious after Kim and Kris split after 72 days.
- Kim’s engagement ring from Humphries : a 20.5 carat with the hefty price tag of $2 million
- Kim Kardashian and Kanye West With both her weddings making the list celebrity and socialite Kim Kardashian’s union to rapper Kanye West bagged a bigger price tag. Celebrating in Italy and France over an entire weekend with a custom Givenchy gown, flowers worth $75,000, accommodations, transportation and all the total cost of the wedding was about $20-30 million. ============================================== The half million dollar dress, $400,000 venue and $7,000 7ft cake: How Kim Kardashian and Kanye West splashed out $12 million on their lavish wedding Her exquisite white lace designer gown cost a cool $500,000 while the 16th century picturesque Italian venue set them back another $410,000. But this, it seems, was small change for Kim Kardashian and Kanye West when it came to splashing the cash for their wedding in Florence last weekend. The opulent nuptials cost a whopping $12 million according to reports, with hotels, private jets and that 7ft vanilla and berry cake all adding to the cost.
- 15-carat Lorraine Schwartz diamond engagement ring. $8 million.
- Michael Jordan and Yvette Prieto: April 27, 2013. $10 Million.
- Petra Ecclestone and James Stunt – $20 million Petra is the daughter of billionaire Bernie Ecclestone, the Formula 1 tycoon. James and Petra were married in 2011 at Odeshalchi Caste in Bracciano, Italy. According to reports, Bernie, who as the father pays for the cost of the wedding, paid an excess of £12m or over $20 million, which he just found out later on after the wedding. ========================================================================== 佩特拉·埃克萊斯頓(Petra Ecclestone)與詹姆斯·斯湯特(James Stunt) 一級方程式賽車億萬富豪伯尼·埃克萊斯頓(Bernie Ecclestone)女兒的婚禮堪稱2011年的上流社會婚禮之最。 這場極盡奢華之能事的婚禮在意大利布拉恰諾(Bracciano)的奧蒂斯卡奇城堡(Odescalchi Castle)舉行，並請到了男高音歌唱家安德烈·波伽利(Andrea Bocelli)、流行樂隊黑眼豆豆(Black Eyed Peas)與音樂DJ大衛·庫塔(David Guetta)登臺獻演，總開支遠超300萬美元。
- Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Makotum and Princess Salama This 1981 wedding fit for royalty required the construction of a stadium from scratch to accommodate the 20,000 guests. Back in the day the wedding costs were estimated at $45 million but translate to about $100 million with fluctuation rates today. ============================================================================================ In 1979, the most extravagant wedding, and the most expensive ever, took place in Dubai. This extravagant wedding cost $137 million, and it holds the Guinness World Record for its place as the most expensive wedding ever held. The wedding was a major event in the country’s history. Hind Bint Maktoum, age 17, married Sheikh Mohammed Rashid al Maktoum, her first cousin, who was older than she was, by approximately 13 years. ============================================================================================ Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Princess Salama – $100 Million Sheik Mohammed and Princess Salama married in 1981 and had one of the most expensive and extravagant weddings of all time. ============================================================================================= Mohammed Bin Rashid al Maktoum & Hind Bint – $137 million The couple’s wedding reportedly cost $137 million, making it the most lavish and luxurious wedding in the world. This is a five-day celebration that was declared as holiday in Dubai in the year 1979 to honor their ruler’s wedding. The sheikh rode his horse from village to village to feed the people.
- 第十名：刘涛 王珂 --400万
- We all know someone who was on the verge of a breakup or divorce until they announced that they were having a baby with their spouse. 我們都知道有人在分手或離婚的邊緣，直到他們宣布他們有一個孩子與他們的配偶。
- According to this study, having a baby with your spouse can decrease your chances of divorce by as much as 76% compared to couples who do not have children. 根據這項研究，與配偶一起生孩子與沒有孩子的夫婦相比，可以減少離婚的機率高達76％。
- Of course, having children within wedlock — another telltale sign of a well-planned marriage — reduces your chances of divorce more so than having children before you tie the knot. 當然，在婚姻中有孩子-另一個良好計劃的婚姻的明確標誌- 可以減少你離婚的機會比在你在結婚之前有孩子。 tie the knot—結婚(phrasal verb) 以前的結婚典禮上要打結，表示新郎新娘的生活從此就結合在一起．所以才會用tie the knot 來表示結婚。
- What’s particularly interesting, though, is that even having children out of wedlock still reduces your long-term chances of divorce. 然而，特別有趣的是，即使節婚前就有孩子仍然減少之後離婚的機會。
- 看來奉子成婚比我們預期的更穩定！ It seems that shotgun weddings are more stable than we would expect them to be! shotgun wedding中文奉子成婚
- Perhaps unsurprisingly, the larger the age gap between you and your partner, the more likely your marriage will end in divorce. Only being 1-5 years away from your partner is nothing to worry about, but if you’re old enough to be your partner’s parent, then your marriage might be in trouble. 也許不奇怪，你和你的伴侶之間的年齡差距越大，你的婚姻越可能離婚結束。 離你的伴侶只有1 - 5年不用擔心，但如果你年紀大到可以成為伴侶的父母，那麼你的婚姻可能會有麻煩。
- An eight year old school boy Sanele Mesilela tied the knot with a 61 years old woman Helen Shabangu, a mother of five children in Tshwane, South Africa.The groom, Sanele married Helen according to Huffington Postin accordance with the wishes of his dead ancestors, a message his family took so seriously and his family provided Helen with £500 and paid another sum of £1000 for the celebration. Sanele is named after his grandfather who has never had a white wedding before he died, asked Sanele to get married and chose Helen because he loves her.The little eight years old dressed in bow tie and silver suit and shared a kiss with his new bride in front of 100 guests. The family said it was a ritual, part of traditional values of African and not legally binding.Helen, whose children are aged between 37 and 27 with her husband of 30 years have no problem with the arrangement. Even though the ceremony shocked the entire community, both parties have since returned to their normal lives.Young Sanele reiterated that he hoped he would have a proper wedding to a woman of his age when he is older.
- If you’re a PhD marrying a high school dropout, your marriage may be shakier than a marriage between two college graduates. 如果你是一個博士，與高中輟學生結婚，你的婚姻可能比兩個大學畢業生之間的婚姻更不穩固。
- It’s particularly interesting to note that the education difference matters more for women than men: Women are 50% more likely to end up divorced when there is an education difference versus men at only 32% more likely. 特別有趣的是，教育差異對女性比男性更嚴重：與男性相比，女性在教育差異方面的可能性高出50％，更有可能發生32％。