1. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Â
Â
Â
Â
       Investment Services Â
WertâBerater | commercial      Â
Â
Investment and Analytical ServicesÂ
A Joint Venture between WertâBerater | commercial and Fortis Commercial AdvisorsÂ
10100 West Charleston Boulevard, Â
0Â |Â P a g e Â
Suite 160, Las Vegas Nevada 89135
702.982.8968
 Kensington London â˘Â Las Vegas, Nevada â˘Â Playa Jaco Beach, Costa RicaÂ
702.982.8967
Â
2. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
JOINT VENTURE ANNOUNCEMENT
Wert-Berater | commercial and Fortis Commercial Advisors have joined forces through an exclusive joint venture agreement to
service our clients with an expansion of our combined real estate advisory services.
Core Services
Due Diligence Property Reports
Property Structural Reports (Licensed General Contractor, California and Nevada)
Market Reports
Highest and Best Use Studies
Project Feasibility Studies
Site Engineering and Feasibility Studies (P.E. Certified)
MAI Certified Appraisals
Workout Solutions
Bankruptcy Consulting
Compliance Consulting
Disposition Services
Leasing
For those lenders or investors who have taken property in satisfaction of debt, are in various stages of work out, are in need of workout strategy or
those seeking real time on-going project valuations, risk assessment or in need of hands on disposition services, we provide more! Since 1998
Wert-Berater | commercial has provided the most comprehensive feasibility studies available and through the Wert-Berater Portalâ˘, now real time
project risk analysis is available with a click of a mouse via our secured website. Combining forces with Fortis Commercial Advisors, our
companies together now provides full service leasing and disposition services that are unmatched.
1Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
3. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Â
LATEST NEWS
IMMEDIATE PRESS RELEASE
Wert-Berater Portalâ˘
01/17/2009 all lenders and investors will require this advanced opportunity to understand
probability of default, probability of additional loan monies, or an equity
Via our ground breaking Wert-Berater Portalâ˘, our Feasibility Studies are player can review their respective Internal Rate of Return or partnership
linked in Portal form for investors/developers and their lenders to view by distributions and possible changes in such schedules as the project
accessing a secure link. The purpose of our new Portal is to provide Real commences and the markets shift, change or if new competing
Time risk assessment on real estate projects and developments. Imagine developments are announced that could present a risk after the project
getting an appraisal and feasibility study updated as the market warrants commences and track other events which may affect a project.
without a special request! Our new portal provides those who have an
interest in specific real estate development projects that have contracted Imagine having a living breathing document that also includes a series of
with Wert-Berater | commercial to have access to Real Time data and risk web cams so that when an analyst half a world away opens up the Wert-
analysis ongoing for the extent of a development in lieu of relying on what Berater | commercial Portal to pick up on current issues concerning the
could be outdated data. project that their company has millions, hundreds of millions or even billions
invested into in Las Vegas or anywhere in the world can view the project,
Typically feasibility studies are completed a year or more prior to breaking ascertain risk reports, status reports, an updated the night before appraisal
ground. We all watched the markets change in a matter of days, minutes, on the project, can view graphs that indicate Net Present Value of the
weeks and months. Our new program allows risk to be understood on a invested monies, Internal Rates of Return analysis, market indicators such
momentâs notice of market changes, risks, threats, etc. The intent of this as absorption rates or rental rates, or even loan risk models such as
new Portal program and the Never Ending Feasibility Study is to provide the probability of default. Many developments have numerous players who
same Real Time data that those involved in other forms of investments such require several types of reports and at different times. Our streamlined
as stocks, bonds, futures and other investment vehicles enjoy. Portal allows all invested or associated to access necessary data Now! Not
later. No waiting for reports. Itâs all there, all the time. Our web site and
Our Portal is revolutionary and has been in the development stages for platform are Patent Pending and fully Copyrighted.
several years. We discovered this need ahead of the crash and believe that
2Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
4. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Â
EXPERIENCE
NEVADA CALIFORNIA
Fortis Commercial Advisors, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Our experience includes retail, office, industrial, land, and multifamily
Fortress Group, Inc., possesses extensive commercial real estate properties. With the complexity of real estate increasing, todayâs
acquisition, disposition, leasing and transaction experience that is transactions are handled by a team of professionals who have
unparalleled. A boutique firm headquartered in Las Vegas Nevada, earned expertise by closing over a billion dollars in transaction since
weâve built our foundation upon the 2003.
highest level of service and in-depth local
market expertise. We believe, above all Currently our firm is involved in further
else, client service comes first. For an meeting the needs of our clients by
array of clients that includes institutional teaming with Wert-Berater | commercial.
and private investors, that level of service This combination expands our
is evident at all times, whether or not we are currently involved in a experience and expertise whereas now together we provide our
transaction with a particular. Our clients know that they can reach clients with both local and international transactional and analytical
any one of our professionals or principals with one call. services.
Retail Office Multi-family Industrial Land
Medical Office Assisted Living Medical Office Regional Mall Hospitality
3Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
5. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Â
PAST TRANSACTIONS
Bridger Professional Building Bonneville Square Pageantry West Renaissance West Edgewater Marketplace
$24,000,000 - CBD Office $34,000,000 - CBD Office $25,250,000 - Office $35,150,000 - Retail $21,770,000 - Retail
Las Vegas, Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada Edgewater, Colorado
Augusta Corporate Park Las Vegas / Windmill Land Bank of America Plaza Pageantry Buffalo Renaissance III
$17,626,000 - Office $160,000,000 - Financing $24,000,000 - Office $8,600,000 - Office $36,443,000 - Retail
Henderson, Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada
Losee Industrial Park Buffalo â Sahara Professional Renaissance Victorville Douglasville Day Center Dean Martin / Cactus
$8,900,000 - Industrial $170,000,000 - Financing $18,500,000 â Retail $9,150,000 - Retail $14,775,000 - Land
North Las Vegas, Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada Victorville, California Douglasville, Georgia Las Vegas, Nevada
Over $1,000,000,000 in transactions since 2003!
Over $170,000,000 in transactions since December, 2007!
Past transactions include some transactions completed by the principals of Fortis Commercial Advisors prior to inception of Fortis while licensed at other firms.
4Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
7. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
FORTIS LEADERSHIP
Dean Jalili Frank Jalili
Managing Partner | Corporate Broker Partner | Senior VP â Investment Services
Dean Jalili is co-founder of The Fortress As founder of Fortis Commercial Advisors,
Group, Inc., the parent company of Fortis Frank Jalili has been integral to its success
Commercial Advisors. With over having been intimately involved in many of
$600,000,000 in direct transaction the companyâs transactions. Prior to
experience for an array of institutional and founding Fortis, Mr. Jalili was a Senior
private clients, Dean is a well respected Investment Advisor at Sperry Van Ness |
voice within the commercial real estate Las Vegas. Frank has been in the
property management and construction.
industry. Prior to inception of the Fortress commercial Real estate industry since
Experienced in several different
Group, Inc., Dean was a Senior Investment 2004 and has personally handled over
construction trades, William founded Stack
Advisor with the Las Vegas office of Sperry $500,000,000 in transactions over that
Construction in 1990, a niche company
Van Ness and a prestigious Partnerâs time. Prior to joining Sperry Van Ness in
specializing in the rehabilitation of
Circle recipient in 2005 and 2006. As 2004, Frank was a Regional Director for a
structurally compromised wood frame
Managing Partner of Fortis Commercial major national insurance company based
structures. Since 1992, William has
Advisors, Dean helped institute a in southern California.
accepted management and leasing
proprietary direct marketing program William Stack contracts ultimately leading to real estate
utilizing county records and unique Senior Investment Advisor | Licensed brokerage. William currently holds a real
research methods to help Fortis remain a General Contractor (CA / NV) estate license and a general contractorâs
leader in sales volume despite the current William Stack brings Fortis Commercial license in both Nevada and California.
economic downturn. Advisors a background in real estate,
6Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
8. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
INTRODUCTION
Corporate Overview
About Wert-Berater | commercial
the insight to optimize investment yield and
Purer analytical vision, optimal capital
Real Estate Advisors
mitigate project risk while focusing on their
allocation decision making and enhanced
core competencies like origination and For over a decade, Wert-Berater has
multi-faceted financial and risk modeling is
capital structuring. grown to serve the needs of our clients.
the mission of Wert-Berater. When it
We align our interests with our clients, and
comes to real estate investment services,
because we are neither a real estate
Wert-Berater | commercial Real Estate
lender nor an investor, we are unbiased in
Advisors delivers more. Since 1998, we
our approach.
have been a leader in providing
comprehensive consulting services such
Wert-Berater provides a full range of real
as feasibility studies and appraisals to real
estate analysis services to real estate
estate lenders, developers and investors.
lenders and investors on both debt and
Wert-Beraterâs analytical team has the
equity investments. Our core services
flexibility to provide a full range of services Wert-Berater is a boutique firm with offices
include project feasibility studies, property
from individual project financial modeling, in Las Vegas, Nevada, Jaco Beach, Costa
appraisals, highest and best use studies,
market research, project risk measurement Rica and in Kensington-London, England.
web based project surveillance, consulting,
and analysis, feasibility and valuation to a From these offices, Wert-Berater has
underwriting and project risk measurement
full array of web based strategic project valued and analyzed approximately $5
& analysis.
surveillance services. Through our billion of invested capital for our clients on
customized services we enable our clients over a thousand assets worth over $25
billion in property value.
7Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
9. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
INTRODUCTION
Our experience extends to all asset Our relational database facilitates cross Markets change and can change rapidly.
Our Portal program provides analysis of
classes of all major and secondary sectional analyses of investments by select
real time market movements that
markets, giving the Wert-Berater team a criteria.
potentially impact the risk of real estate
unique perspective on the interplay of
development projects as they happen.
Our Competitive Advantage
global, national and local trends and how
Wert-Berater Portalâ˘
those trends affect investment risk and
client asset yields. In our role as trusted
The Wert-Berater | commercial advantage
advisors, Wert-Berater has consistently
is our web based Wert-Berater Portalâ˘
demonstrated an ability to add value to our surveillance program. Upon engagement
clientsâ capital allocation decisions and of our services, your firm is engaging a
boutique of highly skilled experts. Our
increase insight into future strategic risks in
feasibility study through our Portal does
order to mitigate investment losses. Wert-
not end with the lead report, but is
Berater has demonstrated a strong
transformed into a grouping of real time
corporate commitment to technology and
analytical and status reporting services that
has developed state of the art information
enables developers and their financial
systems. We have developed a database partners to view project progress and risk.
that facilitates the delivery of both periodic This process provides asset managers,
equity investors and lenders a Portal
and ad-hoc reporting requirements, a
window of information concerning their
necessity in todayâs environment where
investments as the markets change for
timely information is crucial.
prudent decision making.
8Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
10. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Â
CONSULTING SERVICES
Commercial Real Estate Analysis Property Types
and Consulting
Wert-Berater | commercial also specializes
As a result of our joint venture with Wert- in a select group of real estate project
Berater, we are able to utilize an types to better serve our clients. Extensive
investment in a centralized research land use economics experience is in the
function, a comprehensive due diligence following property types:
Project RiskÂ
FeasibilityÂ
and underwriting platform, and MeasurementÂ
Studies
Apartment Medical Office
&Â Analysis
sophisticated risk/yield analysis models
Assisted Living Office
supported by advanced and integrated
Congregate
systems to provide a wide array of Residential Subdivision
Property Research &Â
Care
Valuation Analysis
research and analysis consulting services.
Condominium Resort
Our goal is to provide a full range of pre Fractional
Retail
Ownership
and post closing services that enable our
clients to more fully leverage their capital Golf Course Timeshare
and make the best decisions possible
Industrial Vacant Land
about resource allocation and corporate
Car Wash Automotive Service and
positioning.
Facilities Fueling Stations
Hotel Casino
9Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
11. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
SETTING US APART
Project Feasibility Studies
the return of capital phase of any objective of the business venture or project
Setting Us Apart development. Our studies are mostly and identifying the internal and external
custom tailored depending upon the needs factors that are favorable and unfavorable
We provide the most detailed all-inclusive
of the client and the project being analyzed to achieving that objective. The technique
project feasibility studies in the business by
and fully scrutinized. is credited to Albert Humphrey of StanfordÂ
utilizing the most sophisticated analysis
University.
techniques and software available. Our
In addition to far-reaching market and
studies are completed in a timely manner
competitive research and analysis, our Macro Economic Trend Analysis
and provide principals, investors and
studies provide extensive financial analysis
lenders with a keen understanding of We evaluate and discuss economic trends
that includes project pro forma, financial
historical, current and forecasted market based on futures, stock and bond markets
analysis, sensitivity analysis and
trends, financial analysis and risk and their relationship to the real estate
partnership distribution modeling
assessment for a variety of real estate sector. This macro economic analysis is
completed by using the worldâs most
projects on a global basis. In addition to an important indicator to understand capital
recognized and accepted technology
our studies, our surveillance program, the market anticipations whereas debt and
including Argus⢠software.
Wert-Berater Portal⢠transforms the initial equity funding are relevant to certain
study into a web based tool that provides SWOT Analysis is a strategic planning tool development situations. The Macro
updated risk analysis for projects through used to evaluate the Strengths, Economic Trend analysis is completed by
planning, construction, pre-opening and Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats viewing and discussing real estate
stabilization phases, and can be fully involved in a project or in a business economic trends through examining REIT
utilized through venture. It involves specifying the and Pension Fund value trends.
10Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
12. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
PREDICTIVE YEILD/RISK MODELING
Predictive Yield/Risk Modeling
Sensitivity Analysis - for
recommendations. These tools provide an
Our analytical tools add more to the power determining which assumptions drive your
important indicator of sustainable value decisions most.
of yield/risk modeling to include the ability
Optimization - for finding the best
propositions.
to analyze assumption probability,
solution to very complex problems subject
improving upon typical best case-worst
to business constraints.
Forecasting - for extrapolating
case scenarios into calculating thousands
General Modeling and Problem
historical performance data to aid in
of possible statistical scenarios visible in
Solving - for tackling logically complex
planning.
Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, and problems.
Monte Carlo Simulation - for
forecasting. These modeling tools are Data Analysis - for pulling valuable
modeling uncertainty to help manage
information from historical or experimental
business risk and simulate complex
designed to enhance analytical techniques
data.
systems.
to our spreadsheets to create more
Decision Tree Analysis - for
accurate financial and operational
choosing the best course of action when
predictions and better informed
future outcomes are uncertain.
11Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
13. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Â
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Monte Carlo Simulation Methods Monte Carlo simulation methods are
market changes that a planned
especially useful in studying systems with a
development may experience over the
large number of coupled degrees of
Monte Carlo methods are a class of
concept, planning, construction, pre-
freedom such as assumptions within a Pro
computational algorithms that rely on
opening, stabilization and return of capital
Forma statement. More broadly, Monte
repeated random sampling to compute
Carlo methods are useful for modeling phases must provide its investors with
their results. Monte Carlo methods are phenomena with significant uncertainty in confidence that all variables have been
often used when simulating physical and inputs, such as the calculation of risk in
evaluated. The following excerpts are
business.
mathematical systems. Because of their
items typically used in our analysis to
reliance on repeated computation and
provide our clients surety in their
Samples and Purpose of Financial
random or pseudo-random numbers,
investment opportunities. Through the
Monte Carlo
Modeling and
Monte Carlo methods are most suited to
most reliable and technological computer
Simulation
calculation by a computer. Monte Carlo
programs available, we provide simple
methods tend to be used when it is
and easy to understand probability
We set our studies apart from the rest
infeasible or impossible to compute an
resources on several platforms.
through sophisticated and real time
exact result with a deterministic algorithm.
financial risk and probability analysis. Real
Estate Development due to
12Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
14. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Â
The Wert-Berater Portalâ˘
Histogram Views of Probability of Returns/Losses The Wert-Berater Portalâ˘
The distribution gallery makes it easy to assign
uncertainty to any number of inputs
pasting data between spreadsheets, re- Wert-Berater utilizes technology and
Automate
building old models, and a significant improves the speed, reliability, and quality
Many management processes were once gut-feel
amount of decision-making. of routine decisions by combining its
considered too complex or too fluid to Although this process can work, it is very development modeling capabilities with
automate. As a result, routine business inefficient and expensive when losses are Expert System technology. We deliver
planning at larger complex investment realized. project investment automation via an easy-
grade real estate development involves to-use Web interface.
copying and
13Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
15. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Valuation Probability/Breakeven Analysis
Rates of Return Probability Analysis
Cash Flow Projection Probability
Asset Valuation Probability
Cash Flow Simulations
Probability Density and Cumulative Distribution graphs to illustrate
uncertainty
14Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
16. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
INDUSTRY SUPPORT
Here are just a few of the ways Wert-Berater | commercial
supports the development and construction industry
Resource optimization: Determine how to most
Cost modeling: Accurately estimate costs of very complex
efficiently allocate scarce resources such as people,
projects and contracts.
equipment, and cash to projects.
Portfolio analysis: Determine which contracts to go after by
Operational efficiency: Conduct process
analyzing their contributions to your project.
improvement/Six Sigma
Rapid bid preparations:
projects to reduce costs, cycle
Reduce bid preparation time by
times, and waste.
reusing component models from
previous bids and projects and by
automating routine or complex
Knowledge automation: Expertly guide engineers,
analysis.
contractors, and technicians through complex decision-making
Collaboration planning: Let many individuals simultaneously
processes using intuitive question-and-answer sessions and
contribute to the planning effort. Like building blocks, easily combine
Decision Tree Analysis.
their knowledge, assumptions, and historical data into a complete
Comprehensive forecasting: Predict needs for
analysis.
materials, labor, and equipment, even when historical data is
Risk mitigation: Fully understand risks before engaging in
scarce.
new projects. Implement risk mitigation strategies and contingency
plans early on.
15Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
17. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Â
DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
Land/ Development/ Amenity Investment Decision
Decision Tree Analysis
Decision trees are used to select the best course of action in cases
where you face uncertainty. For example, decision trees are applied
in deciding how much retail or amenity space to build when sales
forecasts are uncertain. In helping you to select the best option,
decision trees provide an elegant framework for combining all
options involved in a decision with consequence probabilities and
outcome values.
Risk Aversion
When developers are faced with prudent decision making concerning
the feasibility of adding or subtracting project components necessary
for success, the Decision Tree Analysis is paramount is providing
this type of analyses and is implemented on larger scale and
complex projects by Wert-Berater.
16Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
18. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
LENDER â INVESTOR TOOLS
Lender â Investor Tools
Forecast: Total Loan Needed (cont'd) [Cross Itnl.xls]Balance Sheet - Cell: C47
We serve lenders and investors with probability analysis of the
Percentiles:
financial Pro Forma through a complete analysis of loan analytics Percentile Dollars
0% ($5,394,626)
including probability of default and investors risk. Each report and 10% ($3,502,384)
20% ($3,078,343)
30% ($2,809,733)
via the Wert-Berater Portal⢠real time risk assessment is provided 40% ($2,580,297)
50% ($2,427,501)
60% ($2,259,101)
on a continuous basis. Several risk tools are made available 70% ($2,088,065)
80% ($1,904,710)
90% ($1,720,864)
including Frequency Probability of Total Loan Needed, Forecasted 100% ($1,046,055)
Net Present Value for Cash Flow Analysis and Probability.
Wert-Berater Portal⢠Advantage
Frequency Probability of Total Loan/Equity Needed Analysis
Lenders and Investors are permitted via a secured link the ability to
Forecast: Total Loan Needed
view real time analytics on our web based Portal. The analytics of
1,000 Trials Frequency Chart 977 Displayed
each project is presented and updated as the market or project
.033 33
changes.
.025 24.75
Major Change Orders affecting Return? No problem. All necessary
.017 16.5
project financial impact is reported and financial probability of returns
and risk is reported at once.
.008 8.25
The Wert-Berater Portal⢠is intended to provide real time market
.000 0
opportunities and threats as the market changes providing real time
($4,463,707) ($3,625,268) ($2,786,829) ($1,948,390) ($1,109,951)
Dollars
market and project analysis that other investment grade
opportunities such as stock, bonds and futures investors enjoy.
17Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
19. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
FORECASTING RISK
Â
Forecasted Net Present Value for the Cash Flow and Forecast: NPV [Cross Itnl.xls]Proforma Income - Cell: D42
Probability Analysis
Summary:
Display Range is from $1,853,508 to $134,434,035 Dollars
Entire Range is from $1,853,508 to $811,175,750 Dollars
After 1,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $1,242,300
Forecast: NPV
Statistics: Value
Trials 1000
1,000 Trials Frequency Chart 986 Displayed Mean $29,959,432
Median $20,802,037
.066 66 Mode ---
Standard Deviation $39,284,980
Variance 2E+15
Skewness 9.84
.050 49.5 Kurtosis 168.26
Coeff. of Variability 1.31
Range Minimum $1,853,508
Range Maximum $811,175,750
.033 33 Range Width $809,322,243
Â
Mean Std. Error $1,242,300.16
.017 16.5
Lender and Investor Access and Analysis
.000 0
Lenders and Investors, through our secured website, may view and
$1,853,508 $34,998,640 $68,143,771 $101,288,903 $134,434,035
even project based on their individual needs on-line and download
Dollars
current and historical reports.
An investor may be provided with real time risk assessment of
Forecast: NPV (cont'd) [Cross Itnl.xls]Proforma Income - Cell: D42
Percentiles:
current or proposed equity investment reports by simply inputting
Percentile Dollars
several investment horizon parameters on their secured
0% $1,853,508
10% $7,545,375
20% $10,746,729
personalized page through the Partnership Distribution Modeling
30% $13,316,777
40% $16,639,676
Center. Reports, IRR analysis estimates and risk analysis based on
50% $20,802,037
60% $25,250,086
70% $31,144,957
their personalized parameters of investment timing â All in real time
80% $39,663,066
90% $61,646,737
based on current project and market conditions.
Â
100% $811,175,750
Â
18Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
20. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
FORECASTING RISK
Probability of Internal Rate of Return (IRR) or Modified Internal Rate
IRR Analysis and Risk Probability
of Return (MIRR) is a critical assessment of project value. The IRR
Â
is the discount rate often used in capital budgeting that makes the
Forecast: IRR (Equity Holders)
net present value of all cash flows from a particular project equal to
1,000 Trials Frequency Chart 983 Displayed
.026 26
zero. Generally speaking, the higher a project's internal rate of
return, the more desirable it is to undertake the project. As such, IRR
.020 19.5
can be used to rank several prospective projects a firm is
.013 13
considering. Assuming all other factors are equal among the various
.007 6.5
projects, the project with the highest IRR would probably be
.000 0
55.67% 90.28% 124.89% 159.51% 194.12%
considered the best and undertaken first. IRR is sometimes
Dollars
referred to as quot;economic rate of return (ERR)quot;.
Forecast: IRR (Equity Holders) [Cross Itnl.xls]Proforma Income - Cell: D41
Forecast: IRR (Equity Holders) (cont'd) [Cross Itnl.xls]Proforma Income - Cell: D41
Summary:
Percentiles:
Display Range is from 55.67% to 194.12% Dollars
Entire Range is from 51.66% to 253.54% Dollars
Percentile Dollars
After 1,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.92%
0% 51.66%
10% 85.23%
Statistics: Value
20% 94.65%
Trials 1000
30% 102.84%
Mean 120.03%
40% 110.30%
Median 118.08%
50% 118.08%
Mode ---
60% 124.84%
Standard Deviation 28.96%
70% 132.53%
Variance 8.39%
80% 143.24%
Skewness 0.59
90% 157.70%
Kurtosis 3.59
100% 253.54%
Coeff. of Variability 0.24
Range Minimum 51.66%
Range Maximum 253.54%
Range Width 201.89%
Mean Std. Error 0.92%
19Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
21. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
SCOPE OF WORK
Scope of Work â Feasibility Studies
The Scope of Work for each report is modified and custom tailored for various projects depending on their scope and clients requirements. However,
several items are pertinent to all Feasibility Studies provided by us. Our Site Analysis is an important step that is carried by our licensed Engineers. This
step is crucial because the economic analysis of a project is heavily dependent on site qualities and costs associated with a buildable site. The Scope of
work identified for a typical assignment includes the following steps:
Site Analysis: A complete evaluation of the subject site pertaining to the following:Â
Â
a. Indicating the nearest utility and their capacity municipal Conditions of Approval and
connections provide preliminary cost estimate
b. Analyzing full zoning l. Verify Utility Approvals âWill Serveâ letters â
c. Estimating functional utility investigate and update and report on utility
d. Review of topography capacity and availability to the site (sewer,
e. Evaluating drainage water, power, natural gas, fiber optics,
f. Review of Soils Reports telephone, and cable
g. Review of Surveys m. In addition, schedules can be provided
h. Detailed evaluation of civil engineering indicating an estimate on the length of time a
i. Examination of site grading preparation plans project should take to be entitled or
j. Entitlement Investigation entitlements updated
k. Off site Requirements/Development
Conditions â review and report on the
20Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
22. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
SCOPE OF WORK
Economic Research and Analysis
4. Site Assessment
1. Introduction
4.1. Location
1.1. Survey of Site and Surrounding Area, CMA (Competitive
4.2. Accessibility and Visibility
Market Area), PMA (Primary Market Area)
4.3. Proximity to Demand Generators
1.2. Market Potential and Trends
4.4. Communications
1.3. Competitive Review
4.5. Utilities
1.4. Concept Development Review
4.5. RMP â Retail Opportunity Gap Study
1.5. Summary of Findings and Recommendations
4.6. S.W.O.T. Analysis
1.6. Conclusions & Recommendations
5. Definition of Project Concept
2. Market Area Analysis
5.1 Site Analysis
2.1. Employment Market and Industry
5.2 Concept Definition of a Proposed Project
2.2. Economic and Demographic Trends relative to the planned
5.3 Facilities Review
development
5.4 Space Allocation Program
2.3. Envisaged Competing Projects
2.4. Economic Prospects
6. Supply and Demand Analysis
6.1. Existing Competitive Supply
3. Infrastructure and Major Projects
6.2. Competitive Property Profiles
3.1. General Overview
6.3. Future Competitive Supply Analysis
3.2. Major Infrastructure Projects
6.4. Export Demand Analysis
3.3. Air, Rail and Road Accessibility
6.5. Market Segment Definition
Â
6.5.1 Commercial Area Analysis
21Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
23. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
SCOPE OF WORK
6.5.2 Meeting and Conference Segment Analysis 7.4. Crystal Ball Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis (Risk analysis
6.5.3 Leisure Area Analysis also known as Sensitivity Analysis based on random
6.5.4 Analysis of Other Relevant Segments to the Project iterations. This analysis provides up to 1500 variable
6.6. Seasonality Fluctuations adjustment per Pro Forma to illustrate ranges of potential risk
6.7. Current and Future Demand and returns
6.8. Consumer/Tenant Capture Analysis 7.5. Cash Flow Ratios
6.9. Competitive Analysis 7.6. Financial Ratios (see definitions attached)
6.10. Market Positioning 7.7. Investment Analysis
6.11. Envisaged Demand Analysis 7.8. Partnership Distribution Modeling
6.12. Demand/Consumer Capture Analysis 7.9. Probability of Loan Default and Credit Analytics
7.10. Statements of Estimated Profit and Loss
7. Financial Projections for the Proposed Project 7.11 Macro Trend Analysis
7.1. Introduction 7.12 Predictive Yield/Risk Analysis
7.2. Pro Forma Per Revenue Source and Project Entirety 7.13 Decision Tree Analysis
7.3. Internal Rate of Return Projections (Project and Partner
8. Exit Strategy Analysis
Investment based on Partnership Distribution/Investment
9. Social Impact analysis and statement
Analysis)
22Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
24. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
SCOPE OF Wert-Berater Portalâ˘
Scope of Wert-Berater Portalâ˘
D. The Portal provides to secured and authorized
The Final Report and its findings are intended to be linked to
development members who can ascertain the
the web based Portal form for the clientâs investors and/or
following as required risk rating reports and
lenders to view via a secure link. The purpose of our Portal
indicators:
is to provide real time risk assessment on the project for the
a. Monthly project status reports
extent of the development through construction, stabilization
b. A continuously updated appraisal on the
and repayment of investment capital. The Final Report is
project
updated as the market warrants without a special request.
c. Internal Rates of Return analysis (IRR)
Notice of market changes, risks, threats are provided.
d. Web based market indicators such as
A. Probability of default and probability of additional
absorption rates or rental rates graphs
loan monies is maintained
that indicate Net Present Value of the
B. Equity investors can review their respective internal
project and invested monies
rate of return or partnership distributions and
e. Web based Site Cams
possible changes in such schedules as the project
f. Partner analysis Tools
commences and the markets shift, change or if new
g. Competitive Property Analysis tools
competing developments are announced that could
(CPA)
present a risk after the project commences
h. Monthly project Risk Rating Reports
C. The Portal includes a series of web cams once the
development and construction commence
23Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
25. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Wert-Berater | Commercial LEADERSHIP
Leadership Arvind Patel, CHA
Corporate Management
special purpose, industrial, retail, office, Partner â Director of Hospitality Services
vacant land and multi-family. As a former
Donald J. Safranek, MSc Mr. Patel heads our London offices. He
Asset Manager for a Lehman Brothers
Principal possess over 30-years of direct ownership,
Global Real Estate where he began his
Mr. Safranek directs a team of Asset development and management of three
career as a currency trade analyst
Managers, Financial Analysts and and four star hotel properties on a global
graduating to real estate equities asset
Appraisers who are responsible for the basis owning and operating fifteen
management, managing up to 40 assets
management and valuation of assets that properties in Orlando Florida, USA. Mr.
throughout Europe and the United States
include debt, equity and REO positions. Patel joined Wert-Berater in 1998. Mr.
with an equity contribution of over $1.2
Mr. Safranek has seventeen years Patel earned a bachelorâs in Engineering
Billion, he has advanced through the years
experience in the commercial real estate from Croydon College, London England in
from a individual consultant to operating a
industry. He founded Wert-Berater in 1998 1978. He is currently responsible for
specialized boutique firm, Wert-Berater.
as an independent consultant providing business development in the hospitality
Mr. Safranek earned a Bachelorâs of Arts
Feasibility Studies. He has worked in and resort industry.
Degree graduating Magna Cum Laude
Europe and the Americas and possesses
from Rollins College and a Masterâs of
extensive experience in the analysis of a
Science Degree from the London School of
variety of commercial real estate projects
Economics and Political Science in
including resort/hospitality, golf course,
Economics with an emphasis on Monetary
Economics.
24Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
26. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Wert-Berater | Commercial LEADERSHIP
Mr. Zajic earned his Bachelorâs Degree in
Finance and attended Xavier University
Michael Greenwald, CPA
studying Accounting and Economics Engineering in 1987 from Colorado State
Costa Rica
applying his studies to a graduate degree.
University.
Mr. Greenwald holds a Certified Public
Frank Zajic James L. Stevens, MAI
Accounting designation and is a Level III
Partner - Financial / Property Analyst
Director â Real Estate Valuations
candidate for the Certified Financial
Analyst (CFA) charter exam. He is
As a Financial/Property Analyst of Wert-
Mr. Stevens has been a Member of the
currently active and living in Costa Rica
Berater, Mr. Zajic is responsible for
and heads our Central American Appraisal Institute since 1976 and is
property analysis and market research.
operations. Possessing more than 11 responsible for heading our valuation
years of real estate sales and financial Prior to joining Wert-Berater, Mr. Zajic
division. He has appraised properties in
analysis experience in North and gained invaluable experience as an
over 40 states in the USA as well as
Central America. Mr. Greenwald
associate in accounting and finance. He
assignments in the Bahamas and Mexico.
contributes significantly to WertâBerater.
joined Wert-Berater in 2006, and has over
Mr. Stevensâ experience is extensive and
Prior to joining Wert-Berater Mr.
5 years of industry experience. He
he has been involved in the appraisal of all
Greenwald worked as a consultant
contributes to feasibility study and real
employed by PricewaterHouseCoopers property types. Prior to joining Wert-
estate appraisal research and analysis. His
and more recently as an Equity Research Berater he was employed by CB Richard
Analyst with BB & T Capital Markets. He vast experience in hotel, industrial, mixed
Ellis, Cushman Wakefield and American
was graduated from The George use, multifamily, office, apartment, self
Appraisal Company. Mr. Stevens is
Washington university majoring in Real
storage and vacant land supports a strong
Licensed in Florida and Nevada and is
Estate and
team of commercial real estate analysts.
active in Mexico.
25Â |Â P a g e Â
Â
27. 2WerWe0Â Â Â Â Â wwwe08WWeWertârtertÂ
Wert-Berater | commercial | Fortis Commercial Advisors Investment Services
Wert-Berater | Commercial LEADERSHIP
Best Use, Market, Zoning, Right-of-Ways
Subdivisions, Houses of Worship, Small
CherylAnn Bryant, CGA
and Impact Studies. Ms. Bryant has a B.S.
Income Residential Properties, Industrial
Real Estate Valuations
from Virginia Tech and is currently licensed
Parks, Banks, Apartment Complexes,
Ms. Bryant is a Certified General Appraiser in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Virginia.
Mobile Home Parks, Farms, Single-Family
who possesses 22-years of professional
Residential Dwellings, Assisted Living
James R. Hansen, CGA
appraisal experience and also acts as the
Facilities, Retirement/Nursing Homes and
Real Estate Valuations
Due Diligence Director of the company.
Special Purpose Properties. Ms. Bryant
Ms. Bryant has extensive appraisal and
also has extensive experience in Asset Mr. Hansen earned his Certified Appraiser
due diligence experience relating to all
Management, Site Acquisitions and Designation in 2007 after maintaining his
residential and commercial property types
Development, Property Disposition, Certified Residential Appraiser designation
including Office Buildings, Restaurants,
Insurance and REO Inspections, Field and since 1996. He has booked over 5,000
Retail Buildings, Strip Retail Centers,
Desk Reviews, Construction Draw hours of commercial real estate appraisal
Shopping Centers/Malls, Fractional
Inspections, Project Management, experience on a variety of income
Ownerships, Factories, Warehouses,
Financial Modeling, Pre-Conveyance Due producing, owner-user, vacant land and
Bowling Alleys, Motels, Mixed Use
Diligence, Condemnations, Eminent special purpose properties. Mr. Hansen
Developments, Convenience Stores,
Domain, Value-in-Use, Loss Mitigation, earned a B.A. Degree from Utah State in
Medical Offices, Condominium and
Easements and Feasibility, Highest and economics and is licensed in Nevada.
Townhouse Developments, Residential
26Â |Â P a g e Â
Â