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INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
BABASAB PATIL
1
Course Overview
2
International
Financial
Management
Foreign
Exchange
Markets
Sourcing
Capital in
Global Markets
Managing
FOREX
Exposure
Foreign
Investment
Decisions
Synthesis
Course Overview
3
 Introduction to international finance
 Introduction and course overview
 The foreign exchange market
 Corporate governance
 Parity conditions in international finance
 Foreign exchange derivative contracts
 International corporate finance issues
 Transactions exposure to exchange rates
 Translation exposure to exchange rates
 Operating exposure to exchange rates
Course Overview
4
 International investment analysis
 Cost of capital
 International bond markets
 International equity markets
 Capital structure
 Corporate strategy and foreign investment
analysis
 Offshoring/Outsourcing
 Project Finance
 Cross-border Joint Ventures
 Cross-border Mergers
Course Overview
5
 Global Financial Crisis
 Bailouts and Bans
 Can a country go bankrupt?
What is special about international finance?
6
 Foreign exchange risk
 E.g., an unexpected devaluation adversely affects
your export market…
 Political risk
 E.g., an unexpected overturn of the government
that jeopardizes existing negotiated contracts…
 Market imperfections
 E.g., trade barriers and tax incentives may affect
location of production…
 Expanded opportunity sets
 E.g., raise funds in global markets, gains from
economies of scale…
What is money?
7
 Barter economy
 Search frictions
 Indivisibilities
 Transferability
 Commodity money
 Beaver pelts
 Dried corn
 Metals
 Fiat money
 Faith in government…
8
9
The Monetary System
10
 Bimetallism: Before 1875
 Free coinage was maintained for both gold and silver
 Gresham’s Law: Only the abundant metal was used as money,
diving more scarce metals out of circulation
 Classic gold standard: 1875-1914
 Great Britain introduced full-fledged gold standard in 1821,
France (effectively) in the 1850s, Germany in 1875, the US in
1879, Russia and Japan in 1897.
 Gold alone is assured of unrestricted coinage
 There is a two-way convertibility between gold and national
currencies at a stable ratio
 Gold may be freely exported and imported
 Cross-border flow of gold will help correct misalignment of
exchange rates and will also regulate balance of payments.
 The gold standard provided a 40 year period of unprecedented
stability of exchange rates which served to promote international
trade.
The Monetary System
11
 Interwar period: 1915-1944
 World War I ended the classical gold standard in 1914
 Trade in gold broke down
 After the war, many countries suffered hyper inflation
 Countries started to “cheat” (sterilization of gold)
 Predatory devaluations (recovery through exports!)
 The US, Great Britain, Switzerland, France and the Scandinavian
countries restored the gold standard in the 1920s.
 After the great depression, and ensuing banking crises, most
countries abandoned the gold standard.
 Bretton Woods system: 1945-1972
 U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35.00/oz.
 Other major currencies established par values against the dollar.
Deviations of ±1% were allowed, and devaluations could be
negotiated.
12
13
Guess what happened to
inflation?
14
The Monetary System
15
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
March
73
=100
Broad Real US dollar Index
Source: www.federalreserve.gov
The Monetary System
16
 Jamaica Agreement (1976)
 Central banks were allowed to intervene in the foreign exchange
markets to iron out unwarranted volatilities.
 Gold was officially abandoned as an international reserve asset.
Half of the IMF’s gold holdings were returned to the members
and the other half were sold, with proceeds used to help poor
nations.
 Non-oil exporting countries and less-developed countries were
given greater access to IMF funds.
 Plaza Accord (1985)
 G-5 countries (France, Japan, Germany, the U.K., and the U.S.)
agreed that it would be desirable for the U.S. dollar to depreciate.
 Louvre Accord (1987)
 G-7 countries (Canada and Italy were added) would cooperate to
achieve greater exchange rate stability.
 G-7 countries agreed to more closely consult and coordinate
their macroeconomic policies.
The Monetary System
17
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
March
73
=100
Broad Real US dollar Index
Source: www.federalreserve.gov
Jamaica 1978
Plaza 1985
Louvre 1987
????
Current Exchange Rate
Arrangements
18
 36 major currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, the
Japanese yen, the Euro, and the British pound are
determined largely by market forces.
 50 countries, including the China, India, Russia, and
Singapore, adopt some forms of “Managed Floating”
system.
 41 countries do not have their own national currencies!
 40 countries, including many islands in the Caribbean,
many African nations, UAE and Venezuela, do have
their own currencies, but they maintain a peg to another
currency such as the U.S. dollar.
 The remaining countries have some mixture of fixed and
floating exchange-rate regimes.
Note: As of July 31, 2005.
The Euro
19
 Product of the desire to create a more
integrated European economy.
 Eleven European countries adopted the Euro
on January 1, 1999:
 Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.
 The following countries opted out initially:
 Denmark, Greece, Sweden, and the U.K.
 Euro notes and coins were introduced in 2002
 Greece adopted the Euro in 2001
 Slovenia adopted the Euro in 2007
Will the UK (Sweden) join the
Euro?
20
 The Mini-Case can be found in E&R, p. 57.
 Please read E&R pp. 35-46 in preparation for the
discussion next time.
 Think about:
 Potential benefits and costs of adopting the euro.
 Economic and political constraints facing the country.
 The potential impact of British adoption of the euro on
the international financial system, including the role of
the U.S. dollar.
 The implications for the value of the euro of
expanding the EU to include, e.g., Eastern European
countries.
The Foreign Exchange Market
21
 The FX market encompasses:
 Conversion of purchasing power from one currency to
another; bank deposits of foreign currency; credit
denominated in foreign currency; foreign trade
financing; trading in foreign currency options & futures,
and currency swaps
 No central market place
 World-wide linkage of bank currency traders, non-bank
dealers (IBanks, insurance companies, etc.), and FX
brokers—like an international OTC market
 Largest financial market in the world
 Daily trading is estimated to be US$3.21 trillion
 Trading occurs 24 hours a day
 London is the largest FX trading center
Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover
22
Source: BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in April 2007.
BIS Triennial Survey…
23
The Foreign Exchange Market
24
 The FX market is a two-tiered market:
 Interbank Market (Wholesale)
 Accounts for about 83% of FX trading volume—mostly
speculative or arbitrage transactions
 About 100-200 international banks worldwide stand
ready to make a market in foreign exchange
 FX brokers match buy and sell orders but do not carry
inventory and FX specialists
 Client Market (Retail)
 Accounts for about 17% of FX trading volume
 Market participants include international banks, their
customers, non-bank dealers, FX brokers, and central
banks
Note: Data is from 2007.
Central Banking
 The U.S. monetary authorities
occasionally intervene in the
foreign exchange (FX) market
to counter disorderly market
conditions.
 The Treasury, in consultation
with the Federal Reserve
System, has responsibility for
setting U.S. exchange rate
policy, while the Federal
Reserve Bank New York is
responsible for executing FX
intervention.
 U.S. FX intervention has
become less frequent in
recent years.
 WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2000
 U.S. INTERVENES IN THIRD QUARTER TO
BUY 1.5 BILLION EUROS NEW YORK FED
REPORTS
 NEW YORK – The U.S. monetary authorities
intervened in the foreign exchange markets on
one occasion during the third quarter, on
September 22nd, buying a total of 1.5 billion
euros, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
said today in its quarterly report to the U.S.
Congress.
 According to the report, the dollar appreciated 8.2
percent against the euro and appreciated 2
percent against the Japanese yen during the
three month period that ended September 30,
2000.
 The intervention was carried out by the foreign
exchange trading desk at the New York Fed,
operating in coordination with the European
Central Bank (ECB) and the monetary authorities
of Japan, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The
amount was split evenly between the Federal
Reserve System and the U.S. Treasury
Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).
 The report was presented by Peter R. Fisher,
executive vice president of the New York Fed and
the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC)
manager for the system open market account, on
behalf of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve
System.
25
http://www.ny.frb.org/
The Foreign Exchange Market
26
The Spot Market
27
 The spot market involves the immediate purchase
or sale of foreign exchange
 Cash settlement occurs 1-2 days after the transaction
 Currencies are quoted against the US dollar
 Interbank FX traders buy currency for their
inventory at the bid price
 Interbank FX traders sell currency for their
inventory at the ask price
 Bid price is less than the ask price
 Bid-ask spread is a transaction cost
The Spot Market – Direct
Quotes
28
 US dollar price of 1 unit of foreign currency—$ are in the numerator
(foreign currency is priced in terms of dollars)
 $/€ = 1.5000 (1€ costs $1.5000)
 $/£ = 2.0000 (1£ costs $2.0000)
 Currency changes
 Suppose that today, $/€ = 1.5000 and in 1 month, $/€ = 1.5050
 The $ has depreciated in value
 Alternatively, the € has appreciated in value
 Suppose that today, $/£ = 2.0000 and in 1 month, $/£ = 1.9950
 The $ has appreciated in value
 Alternatively, the £ has depreciated in value
The Spot Market – Indirect
Quotes
29
 Foreign currency price of $1—$ are in the denominator (US dollar is
priced in terms of foreign currency)
 €/$ = 0.6667 ($1costs €0.6667)
 £/$ = 0.5000 ($1 costs £0.5000)
 Currency changes
 Suppose that today, €/$ = 0.6667 and in 1 month, €/$ = 0.6600
 The $ has depreciated in value
 Alternatively, the € has appreciated in value
 Suppose that today, £/$ = 0.5000 and in 1 week, £/$ = 0.5050.
 The $ has appreciated in value
 Alternatively, the £ has depreciated in value
The Spot Market - Conventions
30
 Denote the spot rate as S
 For most currencies, use 4 decimal places in calculations
 With exceptions: i.e. S(¥/$)=109.0750, but S($/¥)=0.009168
 If we are talking about the US, always quote spot rates as the dollar
price of the foreign currency
 i.e. as direct quotes, S($/€), S($/C$), S($/£), etc
 Increase in the exchange rate  the US dollar is depreciating
 Costs more to buy 1 unit of foreign currency
 Decrease in the exchange rate  the US dollar is appreciating
 Costs less to buy 1 unit of foreign currency
The New York foreign exchange selling rates below apply to
trading among banks in amounts of $1 million and more, as quoted
at 4 p.m. Eastern time by Dow Jones Telerate Inc. and other sources.
Retail transactions provide fewer units of foreign currency per
dollar.
Special Drawing Rights (SDR) are based on exchange rates for
the U.S., German, British, French, and Japanese currencies. Source:
International Monetary Fund.
European Currency Unit (ECU) is based on a basket of community
currencies.
a-fixing, Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange.
EXCHANGE RATES
Country
Argentina (Peso)
Australia (Dollar)
Austria (Schilling)
Bahrain (Dinar)
Belgium (Franc)
Brazil (Real)
Britain (Pound)
30-Day Forward
90-Day Forward
180-Day Forward
Canada (Dollar)
30-Day Forward
90-Day Forward
180-Day Forward
Chile (Peso)
China (Renminbi)
Colombia (Peso)
Czech. Rep (Krouna)
Commercial rate
Denmark (Krone)
Ecuador (Sucre)
Floating rate
Finland (Markka)
France (Franc)
30-Day Forward
90-Day Forward
180-Day Forward
Germany(Mark)
30-Day Forward
90-Day Forward
180-Day Forward
Greece (Drachma)
Hong Kong (Dollar)
Hungary(Forint)
India (Rupee)
Indonesia (Rupiah)
Ireland (Punt)
Israel (Shekel)
Italy(Lira)
W ed.
1.0012
.7805
.09043
2.6525
.03080
.9607
1.6880
1.6869
1.6843
1.6802
.7399
.7414
.7442
.7479
.002352
.1201
.0009985
....
.03662
.1663
....
.0002766
.2121
.1879
.1882
.1889
.1901
.6352
.6364
.6389
.6430
.004049
.1292
.006139
.02787
.0004233
1.6664
.3079
.0006483
Tues.
1.0012
.7902
.09101
2.6525
.03105
.9615
1.6946
1.6935
1.6910
1.6867
.7370
.7386
.7413
.7450
.002356
.1201
.0009985
....
.03677
.1677
....
.0002787
.2135
.1893
.1896
.1903
.1914
.6394
.6407
.6432
.6472
.004068
.1292
.006164
.02786
.0004233
1.6714
.3085
.0006510
W ed.
.9988
1.2812
11.058
.3770
32.470
1.0409
.5924
.5928
.5937
.5952
1.3516
1.3488
1.3437
1.3370
425.25
8.3272
1001.50
....
27.307
6.0118
....
3615.00
4.7150
5.3220
5.3126
5.2935
5.2617
1.5744
1.5714
1.5652
1.5552
246.98
7.7390
162.89
35.875
2362.15
.6001
3.2474
1542.50
Tues.
.9988
1.2655
10.988
.3770
32.205
1.0401
.5901
.5905
.5914
.5929
1.3568
1.3539
1.3489
1.3422
424.40
8.3276
1001.50
....
27.194
5.9633
....
3587.50
4.6841
5.2838
5.2741
5.2558
5.2243
1.5639
1.5607
1.5547
1.5450
245.80
7.7390
162.23
35.890
2362.63
.5983
3.2412
1536.00
U.S. $ equiv. per U.S. $
Currency
Country
Japan (Yen)
30-Day Forward
90-Day Forward
180-Day Forward
Jordan (Dinar)
Kuwait (Dinar)
Lebanon (Pound)
Malaysia (Ringgit)
Malta (Lira)
Mexico (Peso)
Floating rate
Netherland (Guilder)
NewZealand (Dollar)
Norway(Krone)
Pakistan (Rupee)
Peru (new Sol)
Philippines (Peso)
Poland (Zloty)
Portugal (Escudo)
Russia (Ruble) (a)
Saudi Arabia (Riyal)
Singapore (Dollar)
Slovak Rep. (Koruna)
South Africa (Rand)
South Korea (Won)
Spain (Peseta)
Sweden (Krona)
Switzerland (Franc)
30-Day Forward
90-Day Forward
180-Day Forward
Taiwan (Dollar)
Thailand (Baht)
Turkey(Lira)
United Arab (Dirham)
Uruguay(New Peso)
Financial
Venezuela (Bolivar)
SDR
ECU
W ed.
.008639
.008676
.008750
.008865
1.4075
3.3367
.0006445
.4018
2.7624
....
.1278
.5655
.7072
.1540
.02529
.3814
.03800
.3460
.006307
.0001787
.2666
.7116
.03259
.2141
.001184
.007546
.1431
.7334
.7357
.7401
.7470
.03638
.03902
.00000911
.2723
....
.1145
.002098
- - -
1.4315
1.2308
Tues.
.008681
.008718
.008791
.008907
1.4075
3.3389
.0006445
.4002
2.7701
....
.1277
.5699
.7106
.1548
.02529
.3840
.03802
.3475
.006369
.0001788
.2667
.7124
.03259
.2142
.001184
.007603
.1435
.7387
.7411
.7454
.7523
.03637
.03906
.00000915
.2723
....
.1145
.002096
1.4326
1.2404
W ed.
115.75
115.26
114.28
112.80
.7105
.2997
1551.50
2.4885
.3620
....
7.8220
1.7685
1.4140
6.4926
39.540
2.6218
26.318
2.8900
158.55
5595.00
3.7503
1.4053
30.688
4.6705
844.75
132.52
6.9865
1.3635
1.3593
1.3511
1.3386
27.489
25.625
109755.00
3.6720
....
8.7300
476.70
.6986
..........
Tues.
115.20
114.71
113.76
112.28
.7105
.2995
1551.50
2.4990
.3610
....
7.8330
1.7547
1.4073
6.4599
39.540
2.6039
26.300
2.8780
157.02
5594.00
3.7502
1.4037
30.688
4.6690
844.65
131.53
6.9697
1.3537
1.3494
1.3416
1.3293
27.493
25.605
109235.00
3.6720
....
8.7300
477.12
.6980
...........
U.S. $ equiv.
Currency
per U.S. $
Wednesday, January 8, 1997
US dollar price:
S($/£)=1.6880
£1 costs $1.6880
UK pound price:
S(£/$)=0.5924
$1 costs £0.5924
£/$)
(
1
£)
/
($
that
note
And
S
S 
The Spot Market
31
• The current exchange, S($/€)=1.5000. In 1 month, it is
S(€/$)=0.6689
– Has the US dollar appreciated or depreciated?
– By what % has the exchange rate changed?
• Convert S(€/$)=0.6689 to:
1/S(€/$)=S($/€)=1.4950.
– Now we see that the exchange rate has decreased  US dollar has
appreciated.
– The % change per month is:
%
33
.
0
1.5000
1.5000
-
1.4950


The Spot Market
32
• The exchange rate between 2 currencies where neither
currency is the US dollar
• We know the dollar rates. What if we want to know other
rates, i.e. S(€/£) ?
– Calculate cross-rates from dollar rates
– S($/€)=1.5000 and S($/£)=2.0000. What is S(€/£), i.e. the € price
of £?
1.3333
£)
/
(
£1
3333
.
1
0000
.
2
5000
.
1
1
£
$
$
£











S
Cross Exchange Rates
33
• Cross-rates must be internally consistent; otherwise
arbitrage profit opportunities exist.
• Suppose that:
• A profit opportunity exists. Either S(€/£) is too high or
S(€/$) or S($/£) is too low.
• How does this work?
• Sell high and buy low.
£
$
$
£




Cross-Exchange Rates
34
Cross-Exchange Rates
Example
35
 Bank1: S($/¥)=0.0084; Bank2: S($/€)=1.0500;
Bank3: S(€/¥)=0.0081.
 The implied cross rate between Bank 1 and 2 is:
S(€/¥)=0.0080.
 You have ¥1,250,000. What should you do?
 Go to Bank 3.
Convert ¥1,250,000 to €10,125.00 @ 0.0081
 Go to Bank 2.
Convert €10,125 to $10,631.25 @ 1.0500.
 Go to Bank 1.
Convert $10,631.25 to ¥1,265,625.00 @ (1/0.0084)
 The initial ¥1,250,000 becomes ¥1,265,625. You earn
a risk-free profit of ¥15,625, or 1.25%.
Buy ¥ low!
Sell ¥ high!
The Forward Market
36
 Forward market involves contracting today for
the future purchase or sale of foreign
exchange
 Forward prices are quoted the same way as
spot prices
 Denote the forward price maturing in N days
as FN
 i.e. F30($/£), F180($/€), F90(€/ ¥), etc
 The forward dollar price of the euro can be:
 Same as the spot price
 Higher than the spot price (euro at a premium)
 Lower than the spot price (euro at a discount)
37
 The foreign exchange market is by far the largest
financial market in the world.
 Currency traders trade currencies for spot and
forward delivery.
 Exchange rates are by convention quoted against
the U.S. dollar, but cross-rates can easily be
calculated from bilateral rates.
 Triangular arbitrage forces the cross-rates to be
internally consistent.
 The euro has enhanced trade within Europe, and
the currency has the potential of becoming a major
world currency.
Wrap-Up
Assignment
38
 Suppose you are Professor Paul Krugman (Princeton University
Economics Professor and NYT columnist (Op-Ed Page)).
 On October 13, 2008, at 5am you receive a phone call from the
Royal Swedish Academy informing you that you have been
awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in
Memory of Alfred Nobel for your work on international trade and
economic geography.
 After first thinking this is a practical joke – “that is surely a fake
Swedish accent” - the news sink in and you realize you have a
small problem.
 The prize will be awarded at a ceremony on December 10th in
Stockholm, at which time you will receive the a medal, a
diploma, and a prize check for SEK 10,000,000 or US$
1,394,136 at the current spot rate (SEK 7.1729US$).
 What should you do?
Nobel Prize Problem…
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
SEK/USD
1000000
1100000
1200000
1300000
1400000
1500000
1600000
1700000
1800000
Nobel Prize in US$
39

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88679678-International-Financial-Management-PPT-MBA.ppt

  • 2. Course Overview 2 International Financial Management Foreign Exchange Markets Sourcing Capital in Global Markets Managing FOREX Exposure Foreign Investment Decisions Synthesis
  • 3. Course Overview 3  Introduction to international finance  Introduction and course overview  The foreign exchange market  Corporate governance  Parity conditions in international finance  Foreign exchange derivative contracts  International corporate finance issues  Transactions exposure to exchange rates  Translation exposure to exchange rates  Operating exposure to exchange rates
  • 4. Course Overview 4  International investment analysis  Cost of capital  International bond markets  International equity markets  Capital structure  Corporate strategy and foreign investment analysis  Offshoring/Outsourcing  Project Finance  Cross-border Joint Ventures  Cross-border Mergers
  • 5. Course Overview 5  Global Financial Crisis  Bailouts and Bans  Can a country go bankrupt?
  • 6. What is special about international finance? 6  Foreign exchange risk  E.g., an unexpected devaluation adversely affects your export market…  Political risk  E.g., an unexpected overturn of the government that jeopardizes existing negotiated contracts…  Market imperfections  E.g., trade barriers and tax incentives may affect location of production…  Expanded opportunity sets  E.g., raise funds in global markets, gains from economies of scale…
  • 7. What is money? 7  Barter economy  Search frictions  Indivisibilities  Transferability  Commodity money  Beaver pelts  Dried corn  Metals  Fiat money  Faith in government…
  • 8. 8
  • 9. 9
  • 10. The Monetary System 10  Bimetallism: Before 1875  Free coinage was maintained for both gold and silver  Gresham’s Law: Only the abundant metal was used as money, diving more scarce metals out of circulation  Classic gold standard: 1875-1914  Great Britain introduced full-fledged gold standard in 1821, France (effectively) in the 1850s, Germany in 1875, the US in 1879, Russia and Japan in 1897.  Gold alone is assured of unrestricted coinage  There is a two-way convertibility between gold and national currencies at a stable ratio  Gold may be freely exported and imported  Cross-border flow of gold will help correct misalignment of exchange rates and will also regulate balance of payments.  The gold standard provided a 40 year period of unprecedented stability of exchange rates which served to promote international trade.
  • 11. The Monetary System 11  Interwar period: 1915-1944  World War I ended the classical gold standard in 1914  Trade in gold broke down  After the war, many countries suffered hyper inflation  Countries started to “cheat” (sterilization of gold)  Predatory devaluations (recovery through exports!)  The US, Great Britain, Switzerland, France and the Scandinavian countries restored the gold standard in the 1920s.  After the great depression, and ensuing banking crises, most countries abandoned the gold standard.  Bretton Woods system: 1945-1972  U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35.00/oz.  Other major currencies established par values against the dollar. Deviations of ±1% were allowed, and devaluations could be negotiated.
  • 12. 12
  • 13. 13
  • 14. Guess what happened to inflation? 14
  • 15. The Monetary System 15 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 March 73 =100 Broad Real US dollar Index Source: www.federalreserve.gov
  • 16. The Monetary System 16  Jamaica Agreement (1976)  Central banks were allowed to intervene in the foreign exchange markets to iron out unwarranted volatilities.  Gold was officially abandoned as an international reserve asset. Half of the IMF’s gold holdings were returned to the members and the other half were sold, with proceeds used to help poor nations.  Non-oil exporting countries and less-developed countries were given greater access to IMF funds.  Plaza Accord (1985)  G-5 countries (France, Japan, Germany, the U.K., and the U.S.) agreed that it would be desirable for the U.S. dollar to depreciate.  Louvre Accord (1987)  G-7 countries (Canada and Italy were added) would cooperate to achieve greater exchange rate stability.  G-7 countries agreed to more closely consult and coordinate their macroeconomic policies.
  • 17. The Monetary System 17 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 March 73 =100 Broad Real US dollar Index Source: www.federalreserve.gov Jamaica 1978 Plaza 1985 Louvre 1987 ????
  • 18. Current Exchange Rate Arrangements 18  36 major currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, the Euro, and the British pound are determined largely by market forces.  50 countries, including the China, India, Russia, and Singapore, adopt some forms of “Managed Floating” system.  41 countries do not have their own national currencies!  40 countries, including many islands in the Caribbean, many African nations, UAE and Venezuela, do have their own currencies, but they maintain a peg to another currency such as the U.S. dollar.  The remaining countries have some mixture of fixed and floating exchange-rate regimes. Note: As of July 31, 2005.
  • 19. The Euro 19  Product of the desire to create a more integrated European economy.  Eleven European countries adopted the Euro on January 1, 1999:  Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.  The following countries opted out initially:  Denmark, Greece, Sweden, and the U.K.  Euro notes and coins were introduced in 2002  Greece adopted the Euro in 2001  Slovenia adopted the Euro in 2007
  • 20. Will the UK (Sweden) join the Euro? 20  The Mini-Case can be found in E&R, p. 57.  Please read E&R pp. 35-46 in preparation for the discussion next time.  Think about:  Potential benefits and costs of adopting the euro.  Economic and political constraints facing the country.  The potential impact of British adoption of the euro on the international financial system, including the role of the U.S. dollar.  The implications for the value of the euro of expanding the EU to include, e.g., Eastern European countries.
  • 21. The Foreign Exchange Market 21  The FX market encompasses:  Conversion of purchasing power from one currency to another; bank deposits of foreign currency; credit denominated in foreign currency; foreign trade financing; trading in foreign currency options & futures, and currency swaps  No central market place  World-wide linkage of bank currency traders, non-bank dealers (IBanks, insurance companies, etc.), and FX brokers—like an international OTC market  Largest financial market in the world  Daily trading is estimated to be US$3.21 trillion  Trading occurs 24 hours a day  London is the largest FX trading center
  • 22. Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover 22 Source: BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in April 2007.
  • 24. The Foreign Exchange Market 24  The FX market is a two-tiered market:  Interbank Market (Wholesale)  Accounts for about 83% of FX trading volume—mostly speculative or arbitrage transactions  About 100-200 international banks worldwide stand ready to make a market in foreign exchange  FX brokers match buy and sell orders but do not carry inventory and FX specialists  Client Market (Retail)  Accounts for about 17% of FX trading volume  Market participants include international banks, their customers, non-bank dealers, FX brokers, and central banks Note: Data is from 2007.
  • 25. Central Banking  The U.S. monetary authorities occasionally intervene in the foreign exchange (FX) market to counter disorderly market conditions.  The Treasury, in consultation with the Federal Reserve System, has responsibility for setting U.S. exchange rate policy, while the Federal Reserve Bank New York is responsible for executing FX intervention.  U.S. FX intervention has become less frequent in recent years.  WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2000  U.S. INTERVENES IN THIRD QUARTER TO BUY 1.5 BILLION EUROS NEW YORK FED REPORTS  NEW YORK – The U.S. monetary authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets on one occasion during the third quarter, on September 22nd, buying a total of 1.5 billion euros, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said today in its quarterly report to the U.S. Congress.  According to the report, the dollar appreciated 8.2 percent against the euro and appreciated 2 percent against the Japanese yen during the three month period that ended September 30, 2000.  The intervention was carried out by the foreign exchange trading desk at the New York Fed, operating in coordination with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the monetary authorities of Japan, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The amount was split evenly between the Federal Reserve System and the U.S. Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).  The report was presented by Peter R. Fisher, executive vice president of the New York Fed and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) manager for the system open market account, on behalf of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve System. 25 http://www.ny.frb.org/
  • 26. The Foreign Exchange Market 26
  • 27. The Spot Market 27  The spot market involves the immediate purchase or sale of foreign exchange  Cash settlement occurs 1-2 days after the transaction  Currencies are quoted against the US dollar  Interbank FX traders buy currency for their inventory at the bid price  Interbank FX traders sell currency for their inventory at the ask price  Bid price is less than the ask price  Bid-ask spread is a transaction cost
  • 28. The Spot Market – Direct Quotes 28  US dollar price of 1 unit of foreign currency—$ are in the numerator (foreign currency is priced in terms of dollars)  $/€ = 1.5000 (1€ costs $1.5000)  $/£ = 2.0000 (1£ costs $2.0000)  Currency changes  Suppose that today, $/€ = 1.5000 and in 1 month, $/€ = 1.5050  The $ has depreciated in value  Alternatively, the € has appreciated in value  Suppose that today, $/£ = 2.0000 and in 1 month, $/£ = 1.9950  The $ has appreciated in value  Alternatively, the £ has depreciated in value
  • 29. The Spot Market – Indirect Quotes 29  Foreign currency price of $1—$ are in the denominator (US dollar is priced in terms of foreign currency)  €/$ = 0.6667 ($1costs €0.6667)  £/$ = 0.5000 ($1 costs £0.5000)  Currency changes  Suppose that today, €/$ = 0.6667 and in 1 month, €/$ = 0.6600  The $ has depreciated in value  Alternatively, the € has appreciated in value  Suppose that today, £/$ = 0.5000 and in 1 week, £/$ = 0.5050.  The $ has appreciated in value  Alternatively, the £ has depreciated in value
  • 30. The Spot Market - Conventions 30  Denote the spot rate as S  For most currencies, use 4 decimal places in calculations  With exceptions: i.e. S(¥/$)=109.0750, but S($/¥)=0.009168  If we are talking about the US, always quote spot rates as the dollar price of the foreign currency  i.e. as direct quotes, S($/€), S($/C$), S($/£), etc  Increase in the exchange rate  the US dollar is depreciating  Costs more to buy 1 unit of foreign currency  Decrease in the exchange rate  the US dollar is appreciating  Costs less to buy 1 unit of foreign currency
  • 31. The New York foreign exchange selling rates below apply to trading among banks in amounts of $1 million and more, as quoted at 4 p.m. Eastern time by Dow Jones Telerate Inc. and other sources. Retail transactions provide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar. Special Drawing Rights (SDR) are based on exchange rates for the U.S., German, British, French, and Japanese currencies. Source: International Monetary Fund. European Currency Unit (ECU) is based on a basket of community currencies. a-fixing, Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. EXCHANGE RATES Country Argentina (Peso) Australia (Dollar) Austria (Schilling) Bahrain (Dinar) Belgium (Franc) Brazil (Real) Britain (Pound) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Canada (Dollar) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Chile (Peso) China (Renminbi) Colombia (Peso) Czech. Rep (Krouna) Commercial rate Denmark (Krone) Ecuador (Sucre) Floating rate Finland (Markka) France (Franc) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Germany(Mark) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Greece (Drachma) Hong Kong (Dollar) Hungary(Forint) India (Rupee) Indonesia (Rupiah) Ireland (Punt) Israel (Shekel) Italy(Lira) W ed. 1.0012 .7805 .09043 2.6525 .03080 .9607 1.6880 1.6869 1.6843 1.6802 .7399 .7414 .7442 .7479 .002352 .1201 .0009985 .... .03662 .1663 .... .0002766 .2121 .1879 .1882 .1889 .1901 .6352 .6364 .6389 .6430 .004049 .1292 .006139 .02787 .0004233 1.6664 .3079 .0006483 Tues. 1.0012 .7902 .09101 2.6525 .03105 .9615 1.6946 1.6935 1.6910 1.6867 .7370 .7386 .7413 .7450 .002356 .1201 .0009985 .... .03677 .1677 .... .0002787 .2135 .1893 .1896 .1903 .1914 .6394 .6407 .6432 .6472 .004068 .1292 .006164 .02786 .0004233 1.6714 .3085 .0006510 W ed. .9988 1.2812 11.058 .3770 32.470 1.0409 .5924 .5928 .5937 .5952 1.3516 1.3488 1.3437 1.3370 425.25 8.3272 1001.50 .... 27.307 6.0118 .... 3615.00 4.7150 5.3220 5.3126 5.2935 5.2617 1.5744 1.5714 1.5652 1.5552 246.98 7.7390 162.89 35.875 2362.15 .6001 3.2474 1542.50 Tues. .9988 1.2655 10.988 .3770 32.205 1.0401 .5901 .5905 .5914 .5929 1.3568 1.3539 1.3489 1.3422 424.40 8.3276 1001.50 .... 27.194 5.9633 .... 3587.50 4.6841 5.2838 5.2741 5.2558 5.2243 1.5639 1.5607 1.5547 1.5450 245.80 7.7390 162.23 35.890 2362.63 .5983 3.2412 1536.00 U.S. $ equiv. per U.S. $ Currency Country Japan (Yen) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Jordan (Dinar) Kuwait (Dinar) Lebanon (Pound) Malaysia (Ringgit) Malta (Lira) Mexico (Peso) Floating rate Netherland (Guilder) NewZealand (Dollar) Norway(Krone) Pakistan (Rupee) Peru (new Sol) Philippines (Peso) Poland (Zloty) Portugal (Escudo) Russia (Ruble) (a) Saudi Arabia (Riyal) Singapore (Dollar) Slovak Rep. (Koruna) South Africa (Rand) South Korea (Won) Spain (Peseta) Sweden (Krona) Switzerland (Franc) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Taiwan (Dollar) Thailand (Baht) Turkey(Lira) United Arab (Dirham) Uruguay(New Peso) Financial Venezuela (Bolivar) SDR ECU W ed. .008639 .008676 .008750 .008865 1.4075 3.3367 .0006445 .4018 2.7624 .... .1278 .5655 .7072 .1540 .02529 .3814 .03800 .3460 .006307 .0001787 .2666 .7116 .03259 .2141 .001184 .007546 .1431 .7334 .7357 .7401 .7470 .03638 .03902 .00000911 .2723 .... .1145 .002098 - - - 1.4315 1.2308 Tues. .008681 .008718 .008791 .008907 1.4075 3.3389 .0006445 .4002 2.7701 .... .1277 .5699 .7106 .1548 .02529 .3840 .03802 .3475 .006369 .0001788 .2667 .7124 .03259 .2142 .001184 .007603 .1435 .7387 .7411 .7454 .7523 .03637 .03906 .00000915 .2723 .... .1145 .002096 1.4326 1.2404 W ed. 115.75 115.26 114.28 112.80 .7105 .2997 1551.50 2.4885 .3620 .... 7.8220 1.7685 1.4140 6.4926 39.540 2.6218 26.318 2.8900 158.55 5595.00 3.7503 1.4053 30.688 4.6705 844.75 132.52 6.9865 1.3635 1.3593 1.3511 1.3386 27.489 25.625 109755.00 3.6720 .... 8.7300 476.70 .6986 .......... Tues. 115.20 114.71 113.76 112.28 .7105 .2995 1551.50 2.4990 .3610 .... 7.8330 1.7547 1.4073 6.4599 39.540 2.6039 26.300 2.8780 157.02 5594.00 3.7502 1.4037 30.688 4.6690 844.65 131.53 6.9697 1.3537 1.3494 1.3416 1.3293 27.493 25.605 109235.00 3.6720 .... 8.7300 477.12 .6980 ........... U.S. $ equiv. Currency per U.S. $ Wednesday, January 8, 1997 US dollar price: S($/£)=1.6880 £1 costs $1.6880 UK pound price: S(£/$)=0.5924 $1 costs £0.5924 £/$) ( 1 £) / ($ that note And S S  The Spot Market 31
  • 32. • The current exchange, S($/€)=1.5000. In 1 month, it is S(€/$)=0.6689 – Has the US dollar appreciated or depreciated? – By what % has the exchange rate changed? • Convert S(€/$)=0.6689 to: 1/S(€/$)=S($/€)=1.4950. – Now we see that the exchange rate has decreased  US dollar has appreciated. – The % change per month is: % 33 . 0 1.5000 1.5000 - 1.4950   The Spot Market 32
  • 33. • The exchange rate between 2 currencies where neither currency is the US dollar • We know the dollar rates. What if we want to know other rates, i.e. S(€/£) ? – Calculate cross-rates from dollar rates – S($/€)=1.5000 and S($/£)=2.0000. What is S(€/£), i.e. the € price of £? 1.3333 £) / ( £1 3333 . 1 0000 . 2 5000 . 1 1 £ $ $ £            S Cross Exchange Rates 33
  • 34. • Cross-rates must be internally consistent; otherwise arbitrage profit opportunities exist. • Suppose that: • A profit opportunity exists. Either S(€/£) is too high or S(€/$) or S($/£) is too low. • How does this work? • Sell high and buy low. £ $ $ £     Cross-Exchange Rates 34
  • 35. Cross-Exchange Rates Example 35  Bank1: S($/¥)=0.0084; Bank2: S($/€)=1.0500; Bank3: S(€/¥)=0.0081.  The implied cross rate between Bank 1 and 2 is: S(€/¥)=0.0080.  You have ¥1,250,000. What should you do?  Go to Bank 3. Convert ¥1,250,000 to €10,125.00 @ 0.0081  Go to Bank 2. Convert €10,125 to $10,631.25 @ 1.0500.  Go to Bank 1. Convert $10,631.25 to ¥1,265,625.00 @ (1/0.0084)  The initial ¥1,250,000 becomes ¥1,265,625. You earn a risk-free profit of ¥15,625, or 1.25%. Buy ¥ low! Sell ¥ high!
  • 36. The Forward Market 36  Forward market involves contracting today for the future purchase or sale of foreign exchange  Forward prices are quoted the same way as spot prices  Denote the forward price maturing in N days as FN  i.e. F30($/£), F180($/€), F90(€/ ¥), etc  The forward dollar price of the euro can be:  Same as the spot price  Higher than the spot price (euro at a premium)  Lower than the spot price (euro at a discount)
  • 37. 37  The foreign exchange market is by far the largest financial market in the world.  Currency traders trade currencies for spot and forward delivery.  Exchange rates are by convention quoted against the U.S. dollar, but cross-rates can easily be calculated from bilateral rates.  Triangular arbitrage forces the cross-rates to be internally consistent.  The euro has enhanced trade within Europe, and the currency has the potential of becoming a major world currency. Wrap-Up
  • 38. Assignment 38  Suppose you are Professor Paul Krugman (Princeton University Economics Professor and NYT columnist (Op-Ed Page)).  On October 13, 2008, at 5am you receive a phone call from the Royal Swedish Academy informing you that you have been awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for your work on international trade and economic geography.  After first thinking this is a practical joke – “that is surely a fake Swedish accent” - the news sink in and you realize you have a small problem.  The prize will be awarded at a ceremony on December 10th in Stockholm, at which time you will receive the a medal, a diploma, and a prize check for SEK 10,000,000 or US$ 1,394,136 at the current spot rate (SEK 7.1729US$).  What should you do?