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Intraday Trend Alignment
Long Natural Gas
Big Picture
• MCX Energy Index is relatively stronger in
comparison to MCX Comdex /Metals which
implies energy products are outperforming other
commodity products. Commodities in general
bounced from their respective support areas and
energy being relatively strong outperformed
other commodities
• Daily 14 day volatility is greater than 20 day
volatility average & 250 day weighted average
which means the current environment has above
average volatility and with ADX above 25
Intraday Fundamentals
• A winter storm will continue to move east today with heavy
snow forecast from the Lower Great Lakes to New England
and freezing rain for parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic
Coast to Southern New England
• CME Group Inc. raised margin requirements for trading the
futures in NY (Even MCX in India raised margin) to the
highest level in more than four years amid increased price
volatility.
• Energy Information Administration report Feb. 6 may show
that natural gas inventories slid by 267 billion cubic feet last
week, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates
compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average decrease is
151 billion.
Technical Analysis
• We had multiple timeframe trend alignment
(D/60M/5M/1M)
• 319.6 was a inflexion level overall , above
which being long provided better risk/reward
setups
• We made a new 52-week high
Trade Management
Limit Up
• I saw 100 lot offer at 338 which is a big
quantity in our market
• I swept the offers with a stop at 336.2 but
prices moved in my favor immediately
• I exited at 353.8
Intuition
• NO
Review
•
•
•
•

•
•
•
•
•

I did a good job reading the tape
I followed my plan exactly
I remained calm and did not let my emotions guide me
8.78 R-Multiple trade which by far has been my best trend intraday
trade ever
Opportunities to add to positions at 52 week highs , I could not add
as margin for NG has been raised and I was at full capacity
We should keep 60 min Swing trend trade core 5 min intraday
swing core – Trade2hold when multiple timeframe trend alignment
occurs , 1 min scalp and momentum lot
Overall I am satisfied with my performance today
Market conditions are 14day ATR > SMA 20/WMA 250 , ADX>25 , 52
week High , Multiple timeframe confluence
I CAN IMPROVE EVERYDAY

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5th February 2014 My Playbook - Natural Gas Trend Trade

  • 3.
  • 4. • MCX Energy Index is relatively stronger in comparison to MCX Comdex /Metals which implies energy products are outperforming other commodity products. Commodities in general bounced from their respective support areas and energy being relatively strong outperformed other commodities • Daily 14 day volatility is greater than 20 day volatility average & 250 day weighted average which means the current environment has above average volatility and with ADX above 25
  • 5. Intraday Fundamentals • A winter storm will continue to move east today with heavy snow forecast from the Lower Great Lakes to New England and freezing rain for parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast to Southern New England • CME Group Inc. raised margin requirements for trading the futures in NY (Even MCX in India raised margin) to the highest level in more than four years amid increased price volatility. • Energy Information Administration report Feb. 6 may show that natural gas inventories slid by 267 billion cubic feet last week, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average decrease is 151 billion.
  • 7. • We had multiple timeframe trend alignment (D/60M/5M/1M) • 319.6 was a inflexion level overall , above which being long provided better risk/reward setups • We made a new 52-week high
  • 10. • I saw 100 lot offer at 338 which is a big quantity in our market • I swept the offers with a stop at 336.2 but prices moved in my favor immediately • I exited at 353.8
  • 12. Review • • • • • • • • • I did a good job reading the tape I followed my plan exactly I remained calm and did not let my emotions guide me 8.78 R-Multiple trade which by far has been my best trend intraday trade ever Opportunities to add to positions at 52 week highs , I could not add as margin for NG has been raised and I was at full capacity We should keep 60 min Swing trend trade core 5 min intraday swing core – Trade2hold when multiple timeframe trend alignment occurs , 1 min scalp and momentum lot Overall I am satisfied with my performance today Market conditions are 14day ATR > SMA 20/WMA 250 , ADX>25 , 52 week High , Multiple timeframe confluence I CAN IMPROVE EVERYDAY