Beharry, Lyndon Mw: Oyu Tolgoi article appears on page 251 (247 in the PDF file)
International Minerals Processing Conference Ulaanbaatar Mongolia 2016
Lancaster Colony Corporation is one of my favorite equities: Stable, stable, stable.
Lancaster Colony is my *GoTo* example for teaching Corporate Finance. In my limited estimation, Lancaster is one of the few, most visible publicly-traded American companies boasting clean financials, little or no debt, excellent corporate governance, and a balanced executive pay schedule. You cannot get more wholesome than Lancaster. The very name suggests Amish lifestyle, thrift and savings, and quality home-spun products. I've been following Lancaster since I was an MBA candidate in 1995.
I updated my Excel Monte Carlo valuation workbook with Lancaster financials since 2018 to provide a more current Equity Value range. But this conservative analysis propels the firm's pro-forma at a mere 0.00% growth rate in revenue - so it is a low-ball estimate based on the close of books June 30, 2021. I expect LANC will release its 2022 10K late in the week beginning Monday 22 August 2022. Once I review the more current financials, I will complete a valuation with an alternative growth schedule.
Lancaster Colony is based in Ohio, a state with poison pill legislation within the State Code. Lancaster is also closely held and thinly traded. Hence, LANC is virtually immune from hostile takeover.
2022-07-28
I present the final draft of my professional valuation of Lockheed Martin Corporation Equity per Share. I spent some hours cleaning up the prose (mostly light editing). I checked the citations, added "C-5" to Lockheed's notable creations, and worked to tighten up the grammar. As always, subsequent readings will inevitably reveal typographical and grammatical errors, but in general, this report is complete.
I welcome any suggestions or complaints. Feedback always helps me improve my writing and my analysis.
(I will be transitioning to work on a write-up on Gilead Sciences starting next week. From time to time I like to brush up on my biochemistry, molecular biology, and Phase Trial Studies.)
I present the second draft of my professional valuation of Lockheed Martin Corporation Equity per Share. I am satisfied with the variables, the cashflow projections, and the discounting; so this item does carry my estimate of LMT's present valuation.
I worked on the History (p. 2) and the WACC calculations (did some Excel coding after I found a slight Drop down menu / VLookup error) and I finalized the recommendations pp. 6, 7, & 10.
I hope my readers enjoy it as much as I am enjoying producing it!
I am eager to share this report on Lockheed's Monte Carlo Equity Valuation. I have been working on this write-up for Lockheed Martin and I think I am in striking range of completion, so I am sharing the first draft. I hope to round out the PESTLE and Porter Analysis this week and clean up the text, so look forward to a final draft during the first or second week of August.
This Monte Carlo multi-iteration DCF Model returns a fair value for Kraft Heinz: $35.496 . The static Model returns a valuation of $34.388 . These models are conservative estimates projecting zero growth forward using cost factors pulled from the mean of the prior 15 years with a coefficient of variability of the cost factors equal to 10%. Kraft Heinz Company pays a dividend yield of 4.20% ay July 22, 2022.
KHC: Kraft Heinz Company came up on the screen I had completed earlier in the week on Tuesday, and it has been one of my favorites for many years (from before the divestiture of certain assets to Mondelez. Kraft is a textbook example of a stable U.S. entity which made a successful transition to multinational operations through purposefully introducing itself to various foreign markets, and also through astute trades and/or investments into food companies abroad. Kraft has significant presence in Europe, Asia, and Latin America; and a growing presence in Africa.
The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy products, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products. The company also offers dressings, healthy snacks, and other categories; and spices and other seasonings. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative and independent grocery accounts, convenience stores, drug stores, value stores, bakeries, pharmacies, mass merchants, club stores, and foodservice distributors and institutions, including hotels, restaurants, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and online through various e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The Kraft Heinz Company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (FY: 2021-12-25)
GILD 2021 10K: Gilead Sciences, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that has pursued and achieved breakthroughs in medicine for more than three decades. In 2021, the firm's primary revenue drivers originate with medications designed to combat HIV, AIDs and its symptoms. Gilead has also produced medications for combatting coronavirus disease 2019 (“COVID-19”). The firm also researches and manufactures medications treating liver disease. The firm serves the international market and has a vibrant and active pipeline of R&D, and potential offerings in various stages of testing and/or awaiting regulatory approval. (FY: 2021-12-31)
These Monte Carlo DCF and Static DCF analyses hold revenue growth to 0.00% (no growth) while modeling the income statement cost components following 15-year historic means and a coefficient of variability of 10%. (Many analysts are forecasting retracting revenue of between 1.0% and 2.5% for the foreseeable years.) Even at no growth of revenue, Monte Carlo analysis returns excellent and stable valuations for Gilead with a lower bound of approximately $43.70 and an upper bound of about $96.80 . In addition Gilead pays a healthy dividend yielding 4.66% at its current trading price of $66.
This analyst will expend some additional effort reviewing the firm's Phase Trial Clinical studies and pipeline for FDA and/or EU approval. Those qualitative reports will follow in the coming month.
Beharry, Lyndon Mw: Oyu Tolgoi article appears on page 251 (247 in the PDF file)
International Minerals Processing Conference Ulaanbaatar Mongolia 2016
Lancaster Colony Corporation is one of my favorite equities: Stable, stable, stable.
Lancaster Colony is my *GoTo* example for teaching Corporate Finance. In my limited estimation, Lancaster is one of the few, most visible publicly-traded American companies boasting clean financials, little or no debt, excellent corporate governance, and a balanced executive pay schedule. You cannot get more wholesome than Lancaster. The very name suggests Amish lifestyle, thrift and savings, and quality home-spun products. I've been following Lancaster since I was an MBA candidate in 1995.
I updated my Excel Monte Carlo valuation workbook with Lancaster financials since 2018 to provide a more current Equity Value range. But this conservative analysis propels the firm's pro-forma at a mere 0.00% growth rate in revenue - so it is a low-ball estimate based on the close of books June 30, 2021. I expect LANC will release its 2022 10K late in the week beginning Monday 22 August 2022. Once I review the more current financials, I will complete a valuation with an alternative growth schedule.
Lancaster Colony is based in Ohio, a state with poison pill legislation within the State Code. Lancaster is also closely held and thinly traded. Hence, LANC is virtually immune from hostile takeover.
2022-07-28
I present the final draft of my professional valuation of Lockheed Martin Corporation Equity per Share. I spent some hours cleaning up the prose (mostly light editing). I checked the citations, added "C-5" to Lockheed's notable creations, and worked to tighten up the grammar. As always, subsequent readings will inevitably reveal typographical and grammatical errors, but in general, this report is complete.
I welcome any suggestions or complaints. Feedback always helps me improve my writing and my analysis.
(I will be transitioning to work on a write-up on Gilead Sciences starting next week. From time to time I like to brush up on my biochemistry, molecular biology, and Phase Trial Studies.)
I present the second draft of my professional valuation of Lockheed Martin Corporation Equity per Share. I am satisfied with the variables, the cashflow projections, and the discounting; so this item does carry my estimate of LMT's present valuation.
I worked on the History (p. 2) and the WACC calculations (did some Excel coding after I found a slight Drop down menu / VLookup error) and I finalized the recommendations pp. 6, 7, & 10.
I hope my readers enjoy it as much as I am enjoying producing it!
I am eager to share this report on Lockheed's Monte Carlo Equity Valuation. I have been working on this write-up for Lockheed Martin and I think I am in striking range of completion, so I am sharing the first draft. I hope to round out the PESTLE and Porter Analysis this week and clean up the text, so look forward to a final draft during the first or second week of August.
This Monte Carlo multi-iteration DCF Model returns a fair value for Kraft Heinz: $35.496 . The static Model returns a valuation of $34.388 . These models are conservative estimates projecting zero growth forward using cost factors pulled from the mean of the prior 15 years with a coefficient of variability of the cost factors equal to 10%. Kraft Heinz Company pays a dividend yield of 4.20% ay July 22, 2022.
KHC: Kraft Heinz Company came up on the screen I had completed earlier in the week on Tuesday, and it has been one of my favorites for many years (from before the divestiture of certain assets to Mondelez. Kraft is a textbook example of a stable U.S. entity which made a successful transition to multinational operations through purposefully introducing itself to various foreign markets, and also through astute trades and/or investments into food companies abroad. Kraft has significant presence in Europe, Asia, and Latin America; and a growing presence in Africa.
The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy products, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products. The company also offers dressings, healthy snacks, and other categories; and spices and other seasonings. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative and independent grocery accounts, convenience stores, drug stores, value stores, bakeries, pharmacies, mass merchants, club stores, and foodservice distributors and institutions, including hotels, restaurants, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and online through various e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The Kraft Heinz Company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (FY: 2021-12-25)
GILD 2021 10K: Gilead Sciences, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that has pursued and achieved breakthroughs in medicine for more than three decades. In 2021, the firm's primary revenue drivers originate with medications designed to combat HIV, AIDs and its symptoms. Gilead has also produced medications for combatting coronavirus disease 2019 (“COVID-19”). The firm also researches and manufactures medications treating liver disease. The firm serves the international market and has a vibrant and active pipeline of R&D, and potential offerings in various stages of testing and/or awaiting regulatory approval. (FY: 2021-12-31)
These Monte Carlo DCF and Static DCF analyses hold revenue growth to 0.00% (no growth) while modeling the income statement cost components following 15-year historic means and a coefficient of variability of 10%. (Many analysts are forecasting retracting revenue of between 1.0% and 2.5% for the foreseeable years.) Even at no growth of revenue, Monte Carlo analysis returns excellent and stable valuations for Gilead with a lower bound of approximately $43.70 and an upper bound of about $96.80 . In addition Gilead pays a healthy dividend yielding 4.66% at its current trading price of $66.
This analyst will expend some additional effort reviewing the firm's Phase Trial Clinical studies and pipeline for FDA and/or EU approval. Those qualitative reports will follow in the coming month.
I spent the morning updating BBBY: Bed Bath and Beyond. Crazy SGA volatility coupled with Covid quarantines to cripple this long-time Brick & Mortar household goods brand. The firm has some culture *problems*. Notably, stores were traditionally free to run themselves, carrying product lines local management surmised the local community cherished. Hence, there were never any true scale economies in purchasing inventory. Other problems include over-reliance on brick and mortar stores to the detriment of internet marketing; an *early/long-time* history of coupons which never expired; *early/long-time* history of "free" shipping; and other things.
On the plus side, BBBY owns much of its real property and has long-term leases on other holdings. These valuable items are still booked at acquisition costs (c. 1970s-80s real property values) and would generate substantial returns if the firm would transition to a more robust online presence and lease out much of its brick and mortar network. Only time will tell; if, that is, the firm is able to weather the next likely terrible 24 months of horrendous sales...
Monte Carlo DCF projections reflect HUGE volatility. At 0.00% revenue growth, the model returns a range of valuation from a low of -$260.02 (yes, that is a negative number) and up to a maximum of +$256. I had reviewed BBBY way back in 2019, and I think that SWOT analysis is still useful, so I tacked it onto this quantitative analytical summary.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores. It sells a range of domestics merchandise, including bed linens and related items, bath items, and kitchen textiles; and home furnishings, such as kitchen and tabletop items, fine tabletop, basic housewares, general home furnishings, consumables, and various juvenile products. As of February 26, 2022, the company had 953 stores, which included 771 Bed Bath & Beyond stores in 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Canada; 130 buybuy BABY stores in 37 states and Canada; and 52 stores in 6 states under the names Harmon, Harmon Face Values or Face Values. It also offers products through various Websites and applications comprising bedbathandbeyond.com, bedbathandbeyond.ca, harmondiscount.com, facevalues.com, buybuybaby.com, buybuybaby.ca, and decorist.com. In addition, the company operates Decorist, an online interior design platform that provides personalized home design services. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Union, New Jersey.
Post 2000s, Oil and Gas company valuations are particularly problematic. On the one hand, they still service the bulk of humanity's energy demands. In fact, it is oil, gas, shale, and coal which provide the bulk of the energy used to manufacture Green Energy infrastructure (turbines, solar, hydro, and even geo-thermal) - and fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy produced for the manufacture of Green Energy technology for decades to come.
But on the other hand, we all know that humanity must move away from fossil fuels and Developed World nation-states all have varying degrees of regulations requiring phasing out fossil fuel use and technology within this century. Less Developed Countries (LDCs) are beginning to leap-frog, totally bypassing fossil fuel energy infrastructure and directly embracing Green Energy production (infrastructure constructed in Developed World and BRIC (mainly China) using fossil fuel energy).
Furthermore, shale oil (fracking) has empowered U.S. and Canada with enough surplus to become net exporters of oil, and this plays havoc with world oil pricing (notwithstanding the current situation of high prices with the ongoing war in Ukraine). So ... revenue growth rates, Capital Expenditures, even Depreciation Schedules all become difficult to model.
This analysis uses a modest forward 12.50% revenue growth rate (normal distribution; coefficient of variability 10%), with cost structure parameters taking the mean of 15-Yr historic patterns (high standard deviations, though); and a U.S. tax loading of 17% accommodating U.S. federal subsidies and favoritism to American Petroleum Institute lobby.
Bear in mind, though, that the Revenue Growth rate could go negative on a dime, as it had done in the 2010s, when oil and gas retracted and spent next to nothing on Capital Expenditure and discovery.
So, yeah. Fossil Fuel producers: oil and gas (not so much coal) are very difficult to value in this climate.
These variables produce a low range of potential value for Devon Energy Corporation. The obvious workaround would be to broaden the coefficient of variability for the Revenue growth rate and cost parameters. But this option is not attractive because, while more accurately mimicking true-to-life historical volatility in asset pricing, it would produce too broad a range of scenario valuation as to be of any practical use. So this instant valuation produces a rather low valuation estimate, indeed.
3M is interesting. It is a multinational conglomerate with production and sales ranging from household goods to medical devices. The numerical analysis is straightforward. But the trick AND the excitement of valuing these types of companies is that it forces the analyst to learn about the various production methods and markets for disparate ranges of products and look at the company as a true portfolio of cash-generating assets - the various productions - while analyzing and rating the risks of all of those different markets.
I first looked at 3M back in 2016, and then - apparently I have never looked at it since, because the Excel file in my Equity Valuation folders has not been revised in five or six years.
Well, it got some treatment today.
This is an econometrics analysis of quantitative data for 3M. I will review some qualitative data in the coming weeks, but based on the numbers, it looks really good. I included 10 iterations of the 1 Million steps to the Monte Carlo DCF. Enjoy.
I valued Biogen back in 2014 for an old friend, and I have looked in on it sporadically over the years. I did not like it back in the 2010s because it had too many competing therapies for multiple schlerosis (from my 2014 report here https://www.slideshare.net/LMBeharry/biib-reportlmbenterprises-59573190):
"• Several of the product offerings address multiple sclerosis, and these pharma products will likely begin cannibalizing each other within the intermediate term. The analyst believes that this cannibalization will curtail growth within the MS product line within the next 18 to 24 months."
and
"• The firm has submitted hemophilia agents, Factor VIII and Factor IX to the US FDA for regulatory review, anticipating marketing approval in 2014-2015. As these hemophilia products are administered orally, analysts expect sales to grow robustly indeed. (i.e. more doctors will prescribe the treatment as it circumvents costly and frequent recurrent need of infusion of clotting factor). Statistics indicate that roughly 20,000 US residents suffer with hemophilia. A market of 20,000 patients is not a growth sector."
Note that I have not kept up with its pipeline, nor its successes/failures at clinical trial. This printout is solely an exercise in econometric analysis using its historical cost structure to derive an equity valuation.
If you are curious about its current research endeavors, I provide the link for clinical trials here (already sorted for Biogen): https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=Biogen&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
This document appears to be a resume or CV for Lyndon Beharry. It includes his educational background, including a Master's in Business Administration and some law school education. It also outlines his extensive professional experience in business, education, and non-profit work over nearly 30 years. This includes experience teaching in Mongolia and managing projects there. The CV highlights his skills in areas like financial modeling, education, and technical writing. Recommendation letters from previous employers in Mongolia praise his teaching abilities and contributions to their organizations.
Exelon Corporation is America's largest utility company, powering over 10 million customers across 6 regulated utility companies. In 2021, Exelon announced plans to separate into two publicly traded companies - Exelon Utilities which will include the regulated utilities, and Exelon Generation which will include competitive power generation and customer-facing energy businesses. The document provides an overview of Exelon's business history, financial performance, and challenges relating to competition and environmental regulation.
This is the third draft of the APU Merger Paper. The analysis is unchanged. This draft includes the Excel workbook output; and hopefully edits to the grammar and formatting to make it more attractive.
Suu JSC is Mongolia's dominant dairy processor, controlling nearly 50% of the market. It sources milk from over 3,000 herders and farmers and processes over 100 tons of milk daily into 70 branded products. While it faces competition, Suu has strengthened its brands and operations through investments over the past decade. It is currently focused on debt restructuring and entering new export markets like Japan to drive future growth.
This document reviews options for Mongolia-based MCS-APB Tiger Brewery to dispose of or utilize brewers spent grains (BSG) in an economic and environmentally-friendly manner. It analyzes both minimal capital investment options like donating or composting BSG, as well as more capital-intensive options like installing biogas production infrastructure. The three most viable options are identified as: 1) Producing methane for energy recovery through anaerobic digestion, 2) Selling or donating BSG to livestock farmers, and 3) Installing a cogeneration facility to produce steam and electricity from BSG. Financial analysis of capital-intensive options like using BSG to produce steam/power
This document provides economic projections for various commodities from 2015 to 2026, including changes in price, volume, export value, and other metrics. It includes projections for coal, copper concentrate, iron ore, crude oil, zinc ore, non-money gold, calcite, molybdenum, washed cashmere, combed cashmere, and total mineral contributions. For each commodity, it shows the projected annual percentage change in price and volume, as well as total export value. The projections contain values for mean price changes, standard deviation of price changes, and other statistical indicators.
The document analyzes Mongolia's falling foreign exchange rate from 2012-2016. It examines the relationship between Mongolia's exchange rate and gold prices over time using statistical analysis and charts. It finds their exchange rate has a strong correlation with average past prices of gold, silver, and copper over the previous 90 days. Using this relationship, it creates a regression model that predicts Mongolia's exchange rate 90 days in advance with 96% accuracy based on historic mineral prices. It suggests this model could help Mongolia better predict and manage its macroeconomic environment.
I spent the morning updating BBBY: Bed Bath and Beyond. Crazy SGA volatility coupled with Covid quarantines to cripple this long-time Brick & Mortar household goods brand. The firm has some culture *problems*. Notably, stores were traditionally free to run themselves, carrying product lines local management surmised the local community cherished. Hence, there were never any true scale economies in purchasing inventory. Other problems include over-reliance on brick and mortar stores to the detriment of internet marketing; an *early/long-time* history of coupons which never expired; *early/long-time* history of "free" shipping; and other things.
On the plus side, BBBY owns much of its real property and has long-term leases on other holdings. These valuable items are still booked at acquisition costs (c. 1970s-80s real property values) and would generate substantial returns if the firm would transition to a more robust online presence and lease out much of its brick and mortar network. Only time will tell; if, that is, the firm is able to weather the next likely terrible 24 months of horrendous sales...
Monte Carlo DCF projections reflect HUGE volatility. At 0.00% revenue growth, the model returns a range of valuation from a low of -$260.02 (yes, that is a negative number) and up to a maximum of +$256. I had reviewed BBBY way back in 2019, and I think that SWOT analysis is still useful, so I tacked it onto this quantitative analytical summary.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores. It sells a range of domestics merchandise, including bed linens and related items, bath items, and kitchen textiles; and home furnishings, such as kitchen and tabletop items, fine tabletop, basic housewares, general home furnishings, consumables, and various juvenile products. As of February 26, 2022, the company had 953 stores, which included 771 Bed Bath & Beyond stores in 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Canada; 130 buybuy BABY stores in 37 states and Canada; and 52 stores in 6 states under the names Harmon, Harmon Face Values or Face Values. It also offers products through various Websites and applications comprising bedbathandbeyond.com, bedbathandbeyond.ca, harmondiscount.com, facevalues.com, buybuybaby.com, buybuybaby.ca, and decorist.com. In addition, the company operates Decorist, an online interior design platform that provides personalized home design services. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Union, New Jersey.
Post 2000s, Oil and Gas company valuations are particularly problematic. On the one hand, they still service the bulk of humanity's energy demands. In fact, it is oil, gas, shale, and coal which provide the bulk of the energy used to manufacture Green Energy infrastructure (turbines, solar, hydro, and even geo-thermal) - and fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy produced for the manufacture of Green Energy technology for decades to come.
But on the other hand, we all know that humanity must move away from fossil fuels and Developed World nation-states all have varying degrees of regulations requiring phasing out fossil fuel use and technology within this century. Less Developed Countries (LDCs) are beginning to leap-frog, totally bypassing fossil fuel energy infrastructure and directly embracing Green Energy production (infrastructure constructed in Developed World and BRIC (mainly China) using fossil fuel energy).
Furthermore, shale oil (fracking) has empowered U.S. and Canada with enough surplus to become net exporters of oil, and this plays havoc with world oil pricing (notwithstanding the current situation of high prices with the ongoing war in Ukraine). So ... revenue growth rates, Capital Expenditures, even Depreciation Schedules all become difficult to model.
This analysis uses a modest forward 12.50% revenue growth rate (normal distribution; coefficient of variability 10%), with cost structure parameters taking the mean of 15-Yr historic patterns (high standard deviations, though); and a U.S. tax loading of 17% accommodating U.S. federal subsidies and favoritism to American Petroleum Institute lobby.
Bear in mind, though, that the Revenue Growth rate could go negative on a dime, as it had done in the 2010s, when oil and gas retracted and spent next to nothing on Capital Expenditure and discovery.
So, yeah. Fossil Fuel producers: oil and gas (not so much coal) are very difficult to value in this climate.
These variables produce a low range of potential value for Devon Energy Corporation. The obvious workaround would be to broaden the coefficient of variability for the Revenue growth rate and cost parameters. But this option is not attractive because, while more accurately mimicking true-to-life historical volatility in asset pricing, it would produce too broad a range of scenario valuation as to be of any practical use. So this instant valuation produces a rather low valuation estimate, indeed.
3M is interesting. It is a multinational conglomerate with production and sales ranging from household goods to medical devices. The numerical analysis is straightforward. But the trick AND the excitement of valuing these types of companies is that it forces the analyst to learn about the various production methods and markets for disparate ranges of products and look at the company as a true portfolio of cash-generating assets - the various productions - while analyzing and rating the risks of all of those different markets.
I first looked at 3M back in 2016, and then - apparently I have never looked at it since, because the Excel file in my Equity Valuation folders has not been revised in five or six years.
Well, it got some treatment today.
This is an econometrics analysis of quantitative data for 3M. I will review some qualitative data in the coming weeks, but based on the numbers, it looks really good. I included 10 iterations of the 1 Million steps to the Monte Carlo DCF. Enjoy.
I valued Biogen back in 2014 for an old friend, and I have looked in on it sporadically over the years. I did not like it back in the 2010s because it had too many competing therapies for multiple schlerosis (from my 2014 report here https://www.slideshare.net/LMBeharry/biib-reportlmbenterprises-59573190):
"• Several of the product offerings address multiple sclerosis, and these pharma products will likely begin cannibalizing each other within the intermediate term. The analyst believes that this cannibalization will curtail growth within the MS product line within the next 18 to 24 months."
and
"• The firm has submitted hemophilia agents, Factor VIII and Factor IX to the US FDA for regulatory review, anticipating marketing approval in 2014-2015. As these hemophilia products are administered orally, analysts expect sales to grow robustly indeed. (i.e. more doctors will prescribe the treatment as it circumvents costly and frequent recurrent need of infusion of clotting factor). Statistics indicate that roughly 20,000 US residents suffer with hemophilia. A market of 20,000 patients is not a growth sector."
Note that I have not kept up with its pipeline, nor its successes/failures at clinical trial. This printout is solely an exercise in econometric analysis using its historical cost structure to derive an equity valuation.
If you are curious about its current research endeavors, I provide the link for clinical trials here (already sorted for Biogen): https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=Biogen&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
This document appears to be a resume or CV for Lyndon Beharry. It includes his educational background, including a Master's in Business Administration and some law school education. It also outlines his extensive professional experience in business, education, and non-profit work over nearly 30 years. This includes experience teaching in Mongolia and managing projects there. The CV highlights his skills in areas like financial modeling, education, and technical writing. Recommendation letters from previous employers in Mongolia praise his teaching abilities and contributions to their organizations.
Exelon Corporation is America's largest utility company, powering over 10 million customers across 6 regulated utility companies. In 2021, Exelon announced plans to separate into two publicly traded companies - Exelon Utilities which will include the regulated utilities, and Exelon Generation which will include competitive power generation and customer-facing energy businesses. The document provides an overview of Exelon's business history, financial performance, and challenges relating to competition and environmental regulation.
This is the third draft of the APU Merger Paper. The analysis is unchanged. This draft includes the Excel workbook output; and hopefully edits to the grammar and formatting to make it more attractive.
Suu JSC is Mongolia's dominant dairy processor, controlling nearly 50% of the market. It sources milk from over 3,000 herders and farmers and processes over 100 tons of milk daily into 70 branded products. While it faces competition, Suu has strengthened its brands and operations through investments over the past decade. It is currently focused on debt restructuring and entering new export markets like Japan to drive future growth.
This document reviews options for Mongolia-based MCS-APB Tiger Brewery to dispose of or utilize brewers spent grains (BSG) in an economic and environmentally-friendly manner. It analyzes both minimal capital investment options like donating or composting BSG, as well as more capital-intensive options like installing biogas production infrastructure. The three most viable options are identified as: 1) Producing methane for energy recovery through anaerobic digestion, 2) Selling or donating BSG to livestock farmers, and 3) Installing a cogeneration facility to produce steam and electricity from BSG. Financial analysis of capital-intensive options like using BSG to produce steam/power
This document provides economic projections for various commodities from 2015 to 2026, including changes in price, volume, export value, and other metrics. It includes projections for coal, copper concentrate, iron ore, crude oil, zinc ore, non-money gold, calcite, molybdenum, washed cashmere, combed cashmere, and total mineral contributions. For each commodity, it shows the projected annual percentage change in price and volume, as well as total export value. The projections contain values for mean price changes, standard deviation of price changes, and other statistical indicators.
The document analyzes Mongolia's falling foreign exchange rate from 2012-2016. It examines the relationship between Mongolia's exchange rate and gold prices over time using statistical analysis and charts. It finds their exchange rate has a strong correlation with average past prices of gold, silver, and copper over the previous 90 days. Using this relationship, it creates a regression model that predicts Mongolia's exchange rate 90 days in advance with 96% accuracy based on historic mineral prices. It suggests this model could help Mongolia better predict and manage its macroeconomic environment.
6. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐15_LMT‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
Statement of Cash Flows
CashFlows
1,000,000 $USD 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
CashFlow from Operating Activities: CFO 2,541 4,293 3,557 4,380 3,976 6,066 3,664 5,206 1,517 9,994 6,654 6,447 7,875 5,818
Indirect Method
Net Income 3,217 3,024 2,878 2,655 2,745 2,981 3,614 3,605 5,302 2,002 5,046 6,230 6,833 6,315 0
Adjustments
D&A 819 845 1,052 1,008 988 1,185 1,113 1,026 1,215 1,195 1,161 1,189 1,290 1,364 0
Deferred Taxes 755 815 1,147 1,339 1,269 1,088 1,451 1,463 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decrease / (Increase) in Accounts Receivables ‐765 369 ‐372 ‐499 729 ‐43 ‐2,184 ‐141 ‐401 6,159 6,266 6,625 6,640 2,337
Increase / (Decrease) in Inventories ‐281 ‐180 ‐118 ‐456 ‐40 173 ‐2,158 292 183 1,490 868 942 1,506 3,619
Increase / (Decrease) in Accounts Payable 0 403 ‐642 231 641 ‐165 ‐412 321 186 ‐935 186 587 687 1,281
Increase / (Decrease) in Accrued Interest Receivable
Gain / (Loss) on Sale of Property
CashFlow from Investing Activities: CFI 3,638 5,669 3,870 4,278 6,584 6,143 1,340 6,989 3,165 12,921 14,739 16,277 16,512
Indirect Method
Cash from Sale of Marketable Securities 513 3
Cash from Sale of Land
Cash from Sale of Other Assets 30 37 241
Purchase of Plant & Equipment ‐77 ‐53 ‐286 ‐691 ‐46 ‐347 ‐392 ‐594 ‐640
CashFlow from Financing Activities: CFF ‐77 543 ‐50 37 241 ‐286 ‐691 ‐46 ‐347 ‐392 ‐594 ‐640 0
Indirect Method
Cash from Sale of Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash from Sale of Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Interest Paid for Debt ‐341 ‐305 ‐345 ‐354 ‐383 ‐350 ‐340 ‐443 ‐663 ‐651 ‐668 ‐653 ‐591 ‐569 0
Cash Paid to Redeem Debt ‐242 242 0 0 ‐150 150 0 ‐956 956 ‐750 ‐750 ‐500 250 744 1,250
Cash paid for Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐15_LMT‐MC‐Equity|CashFlows 07/15/2022 09:58 Page 6 of 17
7. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐15_LMT‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
Complex Debt
ForEx Carrying Conversion 1,000,000 $USD
Currency Value Rate Long-Term Debt Australian Dollar AUD NA
MatDate Coupon Value Annual Canadian Dollar CND NA
USD NA 2021‐12‐31 3.350% 0.000 0 Chinese Yuan CNY NA
USD NA 2023‐12‐31 3.100% 500.000 16 European Union EUR NA
USD NA 2025‐12‐31 2.900% 750.000 22 Korean Won KRW NA
USD NA 2026‐12‐31 3.550% 2,000.000 71 South Africa Rand ZAR NA
USD NA 2030‐12‐31 1.850% 400.000 7 Swiss CHF NA
USD NA 2035‐12‐31 3.600% 500.000 18 US Dollar USD NA
USD NA 2036‐12‐31 5.325% 1,054.000 56
USD NA 2042‐12‐31 4.070% 1,336.000 54
USD NA 2045‐12‐31 3.800% 1,000.000 38
USD NA 2046‐12‐31 4.700% 1,326.000 62
USD NA 2050‐12‐31 2.800% 750.000 21
USD NA 2052‐12‐31 4.090% 1,578.000 65
USD NA 2031‐12‐31 6.990% 1,605.000 112
USD NA 0.000% ‐1,123.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
EUR NA 0.000% 0.000 0
EUR NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
CND NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000% 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
USD NA 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
0.00000 0.000 0
…
11,676 542
4.644%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐15_LMT‐MC‐Equity|Complex Debt 07/15/2022 09:58 Page 7 of 17
8. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐15_LMT‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
LMT: Lockheed Martin Corporation | 52‐1893632 WACCCalc ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND LONG‐TERM LIABILITIES Yes
DCF analysis will deduct the total value of
liabilities from the firm's cash position.
Functional Currency: 1,000,000 $USD DCF ACCOUNTS FOR CASH AND ALL OTHER ASSETS (YES); ONLY CASH AND SHORT‐TERM (NO) No
To assess liquidity at T₀, DCF analysis will
deduct Balance Sheet Liabilities from Cash +
Short‐term securities.
Debt B Calculations [for Weighted Average Cost of Debt]: FIRE SALE VALUE FOR ASSETS OTHER THAN CASH: 85.000%
1,000,000
Long-Term Debt COST OF DEBT 4.644%
MatDate Coupon Value Annual TAX ADJUSTED 3.669%
2018‐09‐01 8.000% 0 OUTSTANDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS 44,357
2.700% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF DEBT ISSUE. 45,984
1.550% 0 0
6.800% 0 0
2.250% 0 0 COST OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000%
2.960% 0 0 WEIGHTED MARKET PRICE OF PREFERRED STOCK 0.000
2.400% 0 0 WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF OUTSTANDING PREFERRED STOCK 0
2.150% 0 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF PREFERRED CAPITAL. 0
2.400% 0 0
2.850% 0 0
2.550% 0 0 MARKET PRICE OF COMMON STOCK 440.560
3.500% 0 0 RECENT SHARES OUT 266
4.625% 0 0 OUTSTANDING COMMON STOCK: ESTIMATETTM = AVG(RECENT,10K FIGURE) 273 Adjusted for Treasury Stock
4.540% 0 RETAINED EARNINGS 18,401
4.580% 0 $USD CURRENCY COST OF COMMON CAPITAL: CAPITALIZATION. 118,767 3,171 BALANCE SHEET SE
1.920% 0
2.610% 0 DIVIDEND IN $USD 11.200
2.840% 0 DIVIDEND YIELD RATE 2.542%
4.150% 0 ONE YR EXPECTED $USD RETURN PER SHARE = [MARKET PRICE X (1+ER)] + DIVIDEND 476.126
1.890% 0 ACTUAL RETURN ON EQUITY: ER for TTM 57.624% 76.050% TTM VALUE
EXPECTED RETURN ON EQUITYUPPER: Including Risk Premium 20.000% MEAN OF FINANCIALS AND TTM
0 0 GORDON DIVIDEND RoE IMPUTED ke 6.402%
Cost of Long Term Debt 0.000% HISTORICAL 0.730
CAPM FOR COMMON STOCK E(ri) = rf + [E(rm)-rf] LOWER 5.531%
Long Term Debt 11,676 ESTIMATE THE COST OF EQUITY ON EXPECTED RoE OR CAPM?
WAAC
CAPMKe
Cost 4.64% WACC MEAN 5.011%
Short Term Debt 0
Cost 0.00% ESTIMATED SHORT-TERM RISK FREE RATE: T-BILL OR OTHER 2.910%
Revolving Debt 0 OVERALL HISTORIC MARKET RETURN 6.500%
Cost 0.00%
PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE = INFLATION 2.500%
Average Debt Cost 4.644%
PERPETUITY DISCOUNT FACTORWACC-PERPETUITY GROWTH RATE 3.139%
WACC Monte 5.639%
TIME HORIZON (YEARS) FOR SCENARIO 10
CAPM Target Price in 1 Years: 464.926
DCF PROJECTED PRICE PER SHARE AT THESE VARIABLES: 345.102
AVERAGE INTERNAL REVENUE GROWTH RATE TIMET-10,T 2.621%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐15_LMT‐MC‐Equity|WACCCalc 07/15/2022 09:58 Page 8 of 17
9. Equity Valuation 2022‐07‐15_LMT‐MC‐Equity Financial Statement Review
Variables Monetary Values In 1,000,000 $USD (Except Per Share Values).
LMT: Lockheed Martin Corporation | 52‐1893632 Currency $USD Note: This sheet carries decimals to 3 places: 0.000 .
Lockheed Martin Corporation, a global security and aerospace company principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products and services. We also
provide a broad range of management, engineering, technical, scientific, logistics, system integration and cybersecurity services. We serve both U.S. and international customers with products and services that have defense, civil and
commercial applications, with our principal customers being agencies of the U.S. Government. In 2021, 71% of our $67.0 billion in net sales were from the U.S. Government, either as a prime contractor or as a subcontractor (including 62%
from the Department of Defense (DoD)), 28% were from international customers (including foreign military sales (FMS) contracted through the U.S. Government) and 1% were from U.S. commercial and other customers. Our main areas of
focus are in defense, space, intelligence, homeland security and information technology, including cybersecurity. (December 2021)
User may vary input into shaded cells. Complete the IncStmntReview and BalShtReview worksheets. Complete this page; then run your simulation here.
The most recent FY end (type year): 2022 Adjust Base Year for TTM Estimate Yes
Calculate Statistics through FY: 2021
Mean Historical Alternate 10.000% Coefficient of Variation Target Cut-off
Variables Estimate STDEV Rate
Revenue Growth Rate 3.745% 6.971% 2.621% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=186.13% Use an alternate rate.
Alternative Revenue Growth RateDCF 2.00000% 0.200% 0.00% + / - Growth Per Annum Monte Carlo DCF: $USD LMT: Lockheed Martin Corporation | 52-1893632
Projected Growth Rate Y1 2.000% 0.200% Use Alternate Rates: Yes 2.000% 0.200%
AGGR
CoGS : f(Revenue) 84.703% 2.367% 84.472% 84.472%
Depreciation/Amortization [COGs] : f(Revenue) 2.215% 0.253% 2.153% 2.153% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=11.42% Use an alternate rate.
SGA (Only) : f(Revenue) 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
R&D : f(Revenue) 0.660% 0.780% 1.663% 1.663% 1.663% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=118.07% Use an alternate rate.
Depreciation/Amortization [SGA] : f(Revenue) 0.049% 0.130% 0.045% 0.045% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=262.91% Use an alternate rate.
Total Other Overhead : f(Revenue) 0.049% 0.130% 0.049% 0.045% Operating expense has a high deviation=262.91% Check rates of member elements.
Other Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.256% 0.627% 0.310% 0.310% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=245.49% Use an alternate rate.
Interest Expense (Income) : f(Revenue) 0.941% 0.234% 1.250% 0.947% 1.250% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=24.89% Use an alternate rate.
Tax Rate : f(EBT) 27.523% 12.425% 21.000% 26.066% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=45.14% Use an alternate rate.
Capital Expenditures : f(Revenue) 2.692% 0.571% 2.467% 2.467% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=21.21% Use an alternate rate.
Δ Working Capital : f(Revenue) -0.699% 2.885% 0.000% ‐0.847% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=412.59% Use an alternate rate.
Working Capital : f(Revenue) 4.286% 2.510% 4.355% 4.355% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=58.57% Use an alternate rate.
Equity Minority Interest : f(Revenue) ‐0.367% 0.904% 0.000% ‐0.331% High deviation. Coefficient of Variation=246.26% Use an alternate rate.
Financial Ratios | FY 2021
Current 1.4156605
Acid Test 0.25748375 No Include Accounts Receivable?
Debt:Equity 3.64212063
Debt:Debt+Equity 0.78458121
RoA (Adjusted for D&A) 0.12413264
RoE 0.57623871
Gordon Dividend Payout Model:
Book Value of the Firm $USD1,000,000 10,959
Book Value Per Share BV0 41.182
Dividend Growth Rate (Gordon Model) gn 5.000% -0.871% Δ KE : [CAPM - Gordon]
ke = [(RoE - gn ) X (BV0 / P0)] + gn 6.402% No Actual RoE (Yes); Expected RoE (No)
P0/BV0 = PBV = [(RoE-gn)/(ke-gn) 10.6978211
Price Multiple : BV0 10.698
Forecast Share Price From Multiple X BV0 440.560
Static Model: DCF Valuation Per Share 345.102 Growth Rate: 2.00% less 0.00% each subsequent year after T₁.
$USD 345.102
VARIABLES FOR WACC CALCULATIONS
Market and CAPM Modelling 2.910% Risk‐Free Rate (T‐Bill/Bond/Note, LIBOR or other imputed rate)
6.500% Overall historic Market Return
Equity Share Variables 440.560 Current Market Price of Common Stock
11.200 Dividend, if applicable
0.730 eta
76.050% Return on Equity TTM
20.000% Expected Return on Equity
266.110 Current Shares Outstanding (diluted) Including Treasury Holdings in 1,000,000's
Preferred Share Variables Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: A, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: A stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: B, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: B stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: C, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: C stock coupon
Current Market Price of Preferred Stock: D, if applicable
0 Current shares outstanding 1,000,000
Preferred: D stock coupon
0 Weighted Number of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000% Weighted Cost (Coupon) of Preferred Shares Outstanding
0.000 Weighted Market Price of Preferred
Perpetuity Growth Rate Inflation Long‐term Growth Rate (for perpetuity model)
2.500% Long‐Term Inflation Rate
3.580% Average Long‐Term Inflation Rate: U.S.A.
5.531% CAPM KE
Basis of WACC Calculation
WACC
Gordon RoE
CALCULATE DISCOUNT RATE VARYING EQUITY WEIGHTING:
WACC, CAPM, GORDON RoE, AVERAGE OF CAPM AND GORDON RoE?
Yes VARY WACC AROUND ITS MEAN?
2.000% AT THIS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION ( PERCENT OF THE MEAN).
5.639% WACC FOR SIMULATION
ALTERNATE PLUG FOR WACC DISCOUNT FACTOR
Forecast Results Summary Per Share 355.962 P/E Valuation 15.000 PE Forward
476.126 CAPM Valuation 7.5000 Imputed or Projected PEG
440.560 BV0 Multiple Valuation
345.102 Static DCF Valuation
350.146 Monte Carlo DCF Valuation
393.579 of All Models Valuation
Monte Carlo Analysis: 350.146 Monte Carlo DCF 2.500
2,036.114 Monte Carlo Upper 2,036.114
(1,409.360) Monte Carlo Lower (1,409.360)
3,445.474 Monte Carlo Range
984.009% Range:Mean
Lognormal Distribution
The header (top) is higher | lower than the complement (left).
Ratio Comparison of the Models P/E CAPM Gordon BV0 Static DCF MC DCF Models
P/E 0.000% 33.758% 23.766% ‐3.051% ‐1.634% 10.568%
CAPM ‐25.238% 0.000% ‐7.470% ‐27.519% ‐26.459% ‐17.337%
Gordon BV0 ‐19.202% 8.073% 0.000% ‐21.667% ‐20.522% ‐10.664%
Static DCF 3.147% 37.967% 27.661% 0.000% 1.462% 14.047%
MC DCF 1.661% 35.979% 25.822% ‐1.441% 0.000% 12.404%
Models ‐9.558% 20.973% 11.937% ‐12.317% ‐11.035% 0.000%
Beharry, Lyndon Martin W. 2022‐07‐15_LMT‐MC‐Equity|Variables 07/15/2022 09:58 Page 9 of 17