The document summarizes recent economic developments in Botswana in the second quarter of 2005. The major event was the 12% devaluation of the Pula currency and introduction of a new crawling band mechanism for determining the Pula exchange rate. While the devaluation will help boost competitiveness and export-led growth long-term, short-term impacts include higher inflation and reduced economic confidence. Monetary conditions have eased due to the devaluation but domestic economic conditions remain weak. Inflation is expected to rise to 10-11% over the next 2-3 months due to the devaluation.
The challenges of intermittency in North West European power marketsgaryswandells
The challenges of intermittency in
North West European power markets. The impacts when wind and solar deployment reach their target levels. ExtractEd from a major Pöyry study
The ACG Group, Realtors Presents: Successfully Selling HUD Homes (2S CA Rev. ...The ACG Group, Realtors®
Forget what you thought you new about HUD Homes! The entire HUD Home system got a total makeover in Fall 2010! Don't let a lost bid be the way you find out what's new with HUD Homes!
Yes Bank has experienced strong growth since its inception. It aims to continue growing loans and deposits at above industry rates through aggressive branch expansion and increasing penetration in corporate and retail segments. The bank's loan book has grown at a CAGR of 52.9% over the last 5 years, higher than industry average. The analyst expects loans to grow at a CAGR of 28% from FY11-13. However, maintaining high growth rates may require changes to prioritize improving key metrics like cost of funds. Overall, the report is bullish on the bank's business momentum continuing to drive strong performance.
1. The document proposes an absolute return strategy called Directional Long-Short Strategy (DLSS) that aims to generate positive returns by going long and short on emerging market equities.
2. Backtesting shows the strategy achieved average annual returns of 510% when applied to the Russian stock market between 2005-2010, significantly outperforming a simple buy-and-hold approach.
3. The strategy aims to expand into other emerging markets like China, diversifying country risk and increasing liquidity, while maintaining high returns. This would involve researching other markets' structures and trading suitable instruments like ETFs.
- Indian markets fell for a second consecutive session as RBI's measures to attract foreign investment fell short of expectations. Weakness in world stocks also hit sentiment.
- Tata Steel fell on a credit downgrade while Reliance Industries rose after a ratings affirmation. Market breadth was marginally strong with small and mid caps outperforming.
- Asian markets are trading lower led by declines in Japan and weakness is expected to pull down Indian markets at open as well due to volatile global conditions ahead of key European meetings.
• Some glimmers of hope… Rays of hope are permeating the semiconductor
industry, which probably saw most of the bad news in 1QCY09. Global chip sales
improved slightly in Mar 09 with a 30.0% yoy decline compared with a 30.1% yoy
fall in Feb 09. The book-to-bill ratio has ticked up with preliminary Mar 09 numbers
hitting 0.61x, up from Feb 09’s abysmal 0.47x. Finally, utilisation rates have scraped
bottom as some production facilities have been shuttered and inventory control is
being exercised. The end-user markets appear to have troughed, with PC and
handset sales probably hitting the bottom. Furthermore, trade credit is now
normalising. That said, stabilisation does not equate to a recovery and we believe
that restocking activity as inventory runs low is the primary factor in the improving
outlook. We still expect 2009 to be a difficult year where the typical seasonal pick up
in 3Q may not materialise given the current re-stocking activities.
• …but no full-blown recovery until 2010. We argue that a true recovery will only
take root when the global economy begins to move upwards. A meaningful and
sustained recovery will only take place when consumer sentiment and spending
spring back to life and cause ASPs to start rising. We believe that a more
convincing uptrend will take hold only from 2H10 onwards.
• Global economies to start stabilising towards year-end. Our economists believe
that the world economy will feel the full impact of the global financial crisis this year.
Although the process of sorting out the financial system will take time and
resources, the cumulative effects of sizeable fiscal stimuli and aggressive monetary
easing globally will work to provide some stability. Recent global indicators are less
negative. Considering the extremely low base this year, global growth should pick
up in 2010 but will probably fall short of its long-run average growth rate of 3.7%.
• Upgrade sector to TRADING BUY. While the fundamentals for the sector remain
uncertain, we think that downside to share prices is limited as valuations are still
below trough levels. We upgrade the sector from Underperform to TRADING BUY.
Furthermore, in line with our market strategy, we think that investors’ risk appetite is
increasing and higher beta plays such as semicon should be in vogue. Investors
should start picking up semicon stocks ahead of the recovery of the sector as
historically, the share prices for both MPI and Unisem cratered 13-18 months before
the upturn of the sector. Sector catalysts include a) a sooner-than-expected revival
of end-user demand and b) a faster-than-expected economic recovery.
• Upgrade Unisem and MPI to Trading Buy. In tandem with the sector upgrade, we
upgrade MPI and Unisem from Underperform to Trading Buy. We raise our target
prices for both after cutting our discounts to their 5-year historical average by 30-
60% pts to 20-40% for Unisem and MPI respectively. We assign a lower discount to
Unisem, our top pick, as its higher liquidity and beta make it a better play on a
market rebound. Re-rating catalysts include a) qoq improvement in earnings, b)
revival of end demand and c) the higher betas on offer.
The document discusses the future of global air travel and the trends influencing it. It notes that growing economic strength in Asia, global demographic shifts, and increasing digitization will all impact air travel. It also summarizes how the airline industry has been going digital for decades but still faces paradoxes like complex processes and slow technological adaptation. The CEO discusses how digitization has changed everything from travel inspiration to booking to sharing experiences. He outlines Lufthansa's initiatives to better understand customers and technology, and how it is working on co-creation and proactive development to improve the digital travel experience.
The document discusses exponential growth and its impact on industries. It notes that things are changing more rapidly than ever before, with 40% of the Future 500 companies predicted to no longer exist within 10 years. The travel industry in particular is being disrupted by digital technologies and startups. The Lufthansa Innovation Hub is responding by acting and thinking like startups, building startups, and partnering with startups to stay relevant in a changing environment.
The challenges of intermittency in North West European power marketsgaryswandells
The challenges of intermittency in
North West European power markets. The impacts when wind and solar deployment reach their target levels. ExtractEd from a major Pöyry study
The ACG Group, Realtors Presents: Successfully Selling HUD Homes (2S CA Rev. ...The ACG Group, Realtors®
Forget what you thought you new about HUD Homes! The entire HUD Home system got a total makeover in Fall 2010! Don't let a lost bid be the way you find out what's new with HUD Homes!
Yes Bank has experienced strong growth since its inception. It aims to continue growing loans and deposits at above industry rates through aggressive branch expansion and increasing penetration in corporate and retail segments. The bank's loan book has grown at a CAGR of 52.9% over the last 5 years, higher than industry average. The analyst expects loans to grow at a CAGR of 28% from FY11-13. However, maintaining high growth rates may require changes to prioritize improving key metrics like cost of funds. Overall, the report is bullish on the bank's business momentum continuing to drive strong performance.
1. The document proposes an absolute return strategy called Directional Long-Short Strategy (DLSS) that aims to generate positive returns by going long and short on emerging market equities.
2. Backtesting shows the strategy achieved average annual returns of 510% when applied to the Russian stock market between 2005-2010, significantly outperforming a simple buy-and-hold approach.
3. The strategy aims to expand into other emerging markets like China, diversifying country risk and increasing liquidity, while maintaining high returns. This would involve researching other markets' structures and trading suitable instruments like ETFs.
- Indian markets fell for a second consecutive session as RBI's measures to attract foreign investment fell short of expectations. Weakness in world stocks also hit sentiment.
- Tata Steel fell on a credit downgrade while Reliance Industries rose after a ratings affirmation. Market breadth was marginally strong with small and mid caps outperforming.
- Asian markets are trading lower led by declines in Japan and weakness is expected to pull down Indian markets at open as well due to volatile global conditions ahead of key European meetings.
• Some glimmers of hope… Rays of hope are permeating the semiconductor
industry, which probably saw most of the bad news in 1QCY09. Global chip sales
improved slightly in Mar 09 with a 30.0% yoy decline compared with a 30.1% yoy
fall in Feb 09. The book-to-bill ratio has ticked up with preliminary Mar 09 numbers
hitting 0.61x, up from Feb 09’s abysmal 0.47x. Finally, utilisation rates have scraped
bottom as some production facilities have been shuttered and inventory control is
being exercised. The end-user markets appear to have troughed, with PC and
handset sales probably hitting the bottom. Furthermore, trade credit is now
normalising. That said, stabilisation does not equate to a recovery and we believe
that restocking activity as inventory runs low is the primary factor in the improving
outlook. We still expect 2009 to be a difficult year where the typical seasonal pick up
in 3Q may not materialise given the current re-stocking activities.
• …but no full-blown recovery until 2010. We argue that a true recovery will only
take root when the global economy begins to move upwards. A meaningful and
sustained recovery will only take place when consumer sentiment and spending
spring back to life and cause ASPs to start rising. We believe that a more
convincing uptrend will take hold only from 2H10 onwards.
• Global economies to start stabilising towards year-end. Our economists believe
that the world economy will feel the full impact of the global financial crisis this year.
Although the process of sorting out the financial system will take time and
resources, the cumulative effects of sizeable fiscal stimuli and aggressive monetary
easing globally will work to provide some stability. Recent global indicators are less
negative. Considering the extremely low base this year, global growth should pick
up in 2010 but will probably fall short of its long-run average growth rate of 3.7%.
• Upgrade sector to TRADING BUY. While the fundamentals for the sector remain
uncertain, we think that downside to share prices is limited as valuations are still
below trough levels. We upgrade the sector from Underperform to TRADING BUY.
Furthermore, in line with our market strategy, we think that investors’ risk appetite is
increasing and higher beta plays such as semicon should be in vogue. Investors
should start picking up semicon stocks ahead of the recovery of the sector as
historically, the share prices for both MPI and Unisem cratered 13-18 months before
the upturn of the sector. Sector catalysts include a) a sooner-than-expected revival
of end-user demand and b) a faster-than-expected economic recovery.
• Upgrade Unisem and MPI to Trading Buy. In tandem with the sector upgrade, we
upgrade MPI and Unisem from Underperform to Trading Buy. We raise our target
prices for both after cutting our discounts to their 5-year historical average by 30-
60% pts to 20-40% for Unisem and MPI respectively. We assign a lower discount to
Unisem, our top pick, as its higher liquidity and beta make it a better play on a
market rebound. Re-rating catalysts include a) qoq improvement in earnings, b)
revival of end demand and c) the higher betas on offer.
The document discusses the future of global air travel and the trends influencing it. It notes that growing economic strength in Asia, global demographic shifts, and increasing digitization will all impact air travel. It also summarizes how the airline industry has been going digital for decades but still faces paradoxes like complex processes and slow technological adaptation. The CEO discusses how digitization has changed everything from travel inspiration to booking to sharing experiences. He outlines Lufthansa's initiatives to better understand customers and technology, and how it is working on co-creation and proactive development to improve the digital travel experience.
The document discusses exponential growth and its impact on industries. It notes that things are changing more rapidly than ever before, with 40% of the Future 500 companies predicted to no longer exist within 10 years. The travel industry in particular is being disrupted by digital technologies and startups. The Lufthansa Innovation Hub is responding by acting and thinking like startups, building startups, and partnering with startups to stay relevant in a changing environment.
This document lists 8 presentations given by two individuals, JEFFERIS.K. and KENEWENDO.B., between 2009 and 2011 on various economic topics including privatization, the global financial crisis, bank credit, immigration, economic recovery, unemployment, and government budgets. The presentations were delivered at conferences, forums, and universities in Botswana and the Southern African Development Community region.
2007:Enhancing Access to Financial Services in Botswanaeconsultbw
Botswana faces challenges in enhancing access to banking and financial services for its population. Over half of adults in Botswana do not use banking services. While Botswana has a sound banking system, there are issues with geographical access in rural areas and a general lack of penetration among lower-income groups. Expanding the use of new technologies, reforming regulations to promote competition and broadening the range of financial institutions and services can help improve access to finance in Botswana.
2005:The Changing Efficiency of African Stock Marketseconsultbw
This document discusses a study that analyzes the changing efficiency of seven African stock markets over time. It uses a test that can detect gradual changes in weak form market efficiency. The study finds that the Johannesburg stock market was weak form efficient throughout the period studied. Egypt, Morocco, and Nigeria showed tendencies toward weak form efficiency later in the period. In contrast, the Kenya and Zimbabwe markets showed no tendency toward efficiency, while Mauritius displayed a slow tendency to eliminate inefficiency.
2002:Laws Institutions and Capital Market Integrationeconsultbw
This document provides an overview of stock exchanges in Africa, including their establishment, growth, and efforts toward regional integration. It discusses the development of individual stock markets in countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Mauritius, Botswana, Cote D'Ivoire, and Tunisia. It notes that while most African stock markets remain small and illiquid, many have grown rapidly in recent decades due to economic reforms, privatization programs, and relaxed restrictions on foreign investors. However, the markets still face limitations that regional integration efforts seek to overcome through initiatives like the establishment of a West African regional stock exchange.
This document presents the findings of a study on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana. It discusses recent developments in HIV prevalence trends and policy responses. It then models the potential macroeconomic and demographic impacts of HIV/AIDS through to 2021 using an aggregate growth model and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results suggest that HIV/AIDS will significantly reduce Botswana's economic growth rate and increase poverty levels without treatment. Expanding access to antiretroviral therapy could help mitigate these negative impacts. The study also examines the impact of HIV/AIDS at the firm, household and government budget levels. It concludes by recommending policies around social safety nets and basic services to address the economic and social effects of the
This document summarizes a study on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana. It finds that HIV/AIDS has had a substantial negative impact on Botswana's economy, reducing average real GDP growth by 1.5-2% per year without widespread ART provision. ART provision offsets some negative impacts, but HIV/AIDS still reduces growth by around 1.2% per year and lowers the economy by 23% compared to a scenario without HIV/AIDS. The study updates previous analyses and models the economic effects through 2021 under different scenarios.
This document summarizes a literature review on assessing the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda. It provides background on Uganda's response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including national policies, interventions, and financing of HIV/AIDS activities. It then reviews literature on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS at various levels and in various sectors. The document also examines country studies that have modeled the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS using different approaches. It concludes with recommendations for assessing the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda in Phase II of the project.
This report summarizes findings from 5 mini-studies on the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda:
1. Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS on household poverty levels, finding both short-term health costs and long-term effects can increase poverty.
2. Assessing sectoral vulnerability based on HIV prevalence and occupations, finding health/education sectors most at-risk.
3. Analyzing HIV-related costs, financing, and expenditures in Uganda.
4. Projecting the demographic effects of HIV/AIDS and anti-retroviral therapy scenarios on population size and structure.
5. Studying econometric relationships between HIV/AIDS, aid, exchange rates, inflation
Phase III – Analysis of Macroeconomic impacteconsultbw
This document provides an overview of the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda. It discusses the challenges posed by HIV/AIDS to Uganda's economy, including the magnitude of spending on HIV/AIDS programs and the effects on domestic budgets, monetary policy, and exchange rates. It also analyzes the policy choices around absorption and spending as well as scaling up treatment. Two macroeconomic models are used to quantify the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth, factoring in variables like labor supply, productivity, and household costs. The results suggest that expanding antiretroviral therapy could help mitigate the negative effects of HIV/AIDS and support continued economic growth in Uganda.
This document summarizes a study assessing the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda. It conducted a literature review, mini-studies on poverty impact, sectoral impact, costing and demographics, and aggregate macroeconomic modeling. Key findings include: HIV/AIDS reduces economic growth by 0.5-4.5% annually; impacts labor supply, productivity and household incomes; increases health and funeral costs; and requires additional government spending, potentially affecting fiscal balances. Treatment can help offset some impacts but is expensive. The study provides evidence to guide Uganda's response to HIV/AIDS.
The 2009 budget faced challenging economic circumstances due to the global recession negatively impacting Botswana's diamond and mineral revenues. While Botswana entered the crisis in a strong fiscal position, the budget aimed to stimulate the economy through increased spending, leading to a large projected deficit of 14% of GDP. However, longer term fiscal prospects are less positive as diamond revenues are forecast to remain weak for several years, and the budget is not projected to return to surplus over the medium term. This raises concerns about budget sustainability and Botswana's ability to finance large projected deficits.
The document summarizes Botswana's economic conditions in the second quarter of 2010. GDP grew 7.5% in the first quarter, the first positive growth since late 2008, led by a 10.1% increase in mining output. Non-mining private sector growth was lower at 5.5%. Business confidence improved but remains below pre-crisis levels, and businesses expect slower growth than official forecasts. While conditions are improving, Botswana still faces fiscal challenges from adverse medium-term trends exacerbated by the global crisis.
2010 Q1: Feature on the 2010 Monetary Policy Statement and Budgeteconsultbw
The document summarizes the Bifm Economic Review for the 1st quarter of 2010. It finds that the global economic recovery is underway after one year since the depths of recession, with growth strongest in emerging markets like China that were less impacted by the financial crisis. While emerging markets are benefiting from higher commodity prices and trade, developed economies are expected to have slower growth in 2010-2011. The review also examines how global and domestic factors are impacting Botswana's economy.
2010 Q1: Feature on the 2010 Monetary Policy Statement and Budgeteconsultbw
The document summarizes the Bifm Economic Review for the first quarter of 2010. It discusses the global economic recovery underway in early 2010, led by growth in emerging markets. While recovery is occurring, threats of a double-dip recession remain if fiscal stimulus is withdrawn too early. The document also summarizes Botswana's economic performance in 2009, with GDP contracting 6% due to declines in mining and exports. Inflation declined substantially in 2009 in Botswana but was expected to rise in early 2010. The Bank of Botswana maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance in 2009 while pursuing lower inflation targets in the future. Credit growth in Botswana turned positive in late 2009 while arrears remained elevated.
This document provides an overview of Botswana's financial sector as of 2009/2010. It discusses the evolution and structure of the banking sector, which has grown significantly over the past few decades to become an important part of the economy. The regulatory framework and key institutions governing the financial sector are also outlined. The report examines trends in the banking industry as well as the development of Botswana's non-bank financial sector, including capital markets, pensions, insurance, and other lenders. It concludes by identifying several important issues facing the future of Botswana's financial system.
The document provides an overview of Botswana's financial sector as of 2010/2011. It discusses the evolution and structure of the banking sector, which has grown increasingly important to Botswana's economy. The regulatory framework for banks and other non-bank financial institutions is also examined. Several issues facing the financial sector are analyzed, including the impact of the global crisis, competition and profitability trends in the banking industry, and potential future sources of growth.
2009 Product Innovation and Access to Finance (USAID)econsultbw
This technical report discusses product innovation and access to finance in Africa. It finds that the majority of the population in sub-Saharan Africa does not have access to formal financial services like banks, inhibiting economic growth. However, innovations in mobile money transfer, e-money and mobile banking are transforming access. These innovations reduce costs and allow new distribution models. Mobile network operators are well-positioned to provide low-cost transactions through non-traditional retail points. The report argues regulators need to support innovation without inhibiting it, and ensure risks from different financial products are appropriately managed.
The banking sector in Botswana has evolved significantly over time. Historically, it was dominated by Barclays and Standard Chartered banks. In the 1980s, reforms aimed to encourage competition by liberalizing bank licensing and introducing market-based monetary policy. This led to the entry of several new banks in the early 1990s, doubling the number of commercial banks. Meanwhile, several government-owned financial institutions played an important role in development lending. Overall, reforms have increased competition and efficiency in the banking sector.
2009 Bond Markets in SADC-COMESA Mapping Study (African Financial Markets I...econsultbw
This report provides an overview of bond market development initiatives in Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) countries. It analyzes bond market issues and constraints, regulatory frameworks, and ongoing initiatives to develop bond markets. Key findings include:
1) Bond markets in most SADC and COMESA countries remain underdeveloped, with low liquidity, narrow investor bases, short maturities, and high borrowing costs. This impacts financial sector competitiveness.
2) Developing bond markets could allow governments to borrow more in domestic currencies and lower dependency on foreign debt, increase corporate financing options, and catalyze financial market development and regional integration.
3) The
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be stronger in mining than non-mining sectors.
This document lists 8 presentations given by two individuals, JEFFERIS.K. and KENEWENDO.B., between 2009 and 2011 on various economic topics including privatization, the global financial crisis, bank credit, immigration, economic recovery, unemployment, and government budgets. The presentations were delivered at conferences, forums, and universities in Botswana and the Southern African Development Community region.
2007:Enhancing Access to Financial Services in Botswanaeconsultbw
Botswana faces challenges in enhancing access to banking and financial services for its population. Over half of adults in Botswana do not use banking services. While Botswana has a sound banking system, there are issues with geographical access in rural areas and a general lack of penetration among lower-income groups. Expanding the use of new technologies, reforming regulations to promote competition and broadening the range of financial institutions and services can help improve access to finance in Botswana.
2005:The Changing Efficiency of African Stock Marketseconsultbw
This document discusses a study that analyzes the changing efficiency of seven African stock markets over time. It uses a test that can detect gradual changes in weak form market efficiency. The study finds that the Johannesburg stock market was weak form efficient throughout the period studied. Egypt, Morocco, and Nigeria showed tendencies toward weak form efficiency later in the period. In contrast, the Kenya and Zimbabwe markets showed no tendency toward efficiency, while Mauritius displayed a slow tendency to eliminate inefficiency.
2002:Laws Institutions and Capital Market Integrationeconsultbw
This document provides an overview of stock exchanges in Africa, including their establishment, growth, and efforts toward regional integration. It discusses the development of individual stock markets in countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Mauritius, Botswana, Cote D'Ivoire, and Tunisia. It notes that while most African stock markets remain small and illiquid, many have grown rapidly in recent decades due to economic reforms, privatization programs, and relaxed restrictions on foreign investors. However, the markets still face limitations that regional integration efforts seek to overcome through initiatives like the establishment of a West African regional stock exchange.
This document presents the findings of a study on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana. It discusses recent developments in HIV prevalence trends and policy responses. It then models the potential macroeconomic and demographic impacts of HIV/AIDS through to 2021 using an aggregate growth model and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results suggest that HIV/AIDS will significantly reduce Botswana's economic growth rate and increase poverty levels without treatment. Expanding access to antiretroviral therapy could help mitigate these negative impacts. The study also examines the impact of HIV/AIDS at the firm, household and government budget levels. It concludes by recommending policies around social safety nets and basic services to address the economic and social effects of the
This document summarizes a study on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana. It finds that HIV/AIDS has had a substantial negative impact on Botswana's economy, reducing average real GDP growth by 1.5-2% per year without widespread ART provision. ART provision offsets some negative impacts, but HIV/AIDS still reduces growth by around 1.2% per year and lowers the economy by 23% compared to a scenario without HIV/AIDS. The study updates previous analyses and models the economic effects through 2021 under different scenarios.
This document summarizes a literature review on assessing the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda. It provides background on Uganda's response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including national policies, interventions, and financing of HIV/AIDS activities. It then reviews literature on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS at various levels and in various sectors. The document also examines country studies that have modeled the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS using different approaches. It concludes with recommendations for assessing the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda in Phase II of the project.
This report summarizes findings from 5 mini-studies on the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda:
1. Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS on household poverty levels, finding both short-term health costs and long-term effects can increase poverty.
2. Assessing sectoral vulnerability based on HIV prevalence and occupations, finding health/education sectors most at-risk.
3. Analyzing HIV-related costs, financing, and expenditures in Uganda.
4. Projecting the demographic effects of HIV/AIDS and anti-retroviral therapy scenarios on population size and structure.
5. Studying econometric relationships between HIV/AIDS, aid, exchange rates, inflation
Phase III – Analysis of Macroeconomic impacteconsultbw
This document provides an overview of the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda. It discusses the challenges posed by HIV/AIDS to Uganda's economy, including the magnitude of spending on HIV/AIDS programs and the effects on domestic budgets, monetary policy, and exchange rates. It also analyzes the policy choices around absorption and spending as well as scaling up treatment. Two macroeconomic models are used to quantify the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth, factoring in variables like labor supply, productivity, and household costs. The results suggest that expanding antiretroviral therapy could help mitigate the negative effects of HIV/AIDS and support continued economic growth in Uganda.
This document summarizes a study assessing the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS in Uganda. It conducted a literature review, mini-studies on poverty impact, sectoral impact, costing and demographics, and aggregate macroeconomic modeling. Key findings include: HIV/AIDS reduces economic growth by 0.5-4.5% annually; impacts labor supply, productivity and household incomes; increases health and funeral costs; and requires additional government spending, potentially affecting fiscal balances. Treatment can help offset some impacts but is expensive. The study provides evidence to guide Uganda's response to HIV/AIDS.
The 2009 budget faced challenging economic circumstances due to the global recession negatively impacting Botswana's diamond and mineral revenues. While Botswana entered the crisis in a strong fiscal position, the budget aimed to stimulate the economy through increased spending, leading to a large projected deficit of 14% of GDP. However, longer term fiscal prospects are less positive as diamond revenues are forecast to remain weak for several years, and the budget is not projected to return to surplus over the medium term. This raises concerns about budget sustainability and Botswana's ability to finance large projected deficits.
The document summarizes Botswana's economic conditions in the second quarter of 2010. GDP grew 7.5% in the first quarter, the first positive growth since late 2008, led by a 10.1% increase in mining output. Non-mining private sector growth was lower at 5.5%. Business confidence improved but remains below pre-crisis levels, and businesses expect slower growth than official forecasts. While conditions are improving, Botswana still faces fiscal challenges from adverse medium-term trends exacerbated by the global crisis.
2010 Q1: Feature on the 2010 Monetary Policy Statement and Budgeteconsultbw
The document summarizes the Bifm Economic Review for the 1st quarter of 2010. It finds that the global economic recovery is underway after one year since the depths of recession, with growth strongest in emerging markets like China that were less impacted by the financial crisis. While emerging markets are benefiting from higher commodity prices and trade, developed economies are expected to have slower growth in 2010-2011. The review also examines how global and domestic factors are impacting Botswana's economy.
2010 Q1: Feature on the 2010 Monetary Policy Statement and Budgeteconsultbw
The document summarizes the Bifm Economic Review for the first quarter of 2010. It discusses the global economic recovery underway in early 2010, led by growth in emerging markets. While recovery is occurring, threats of a double-dip recession remain if fiscal stimulus is withdrawn too early. The document also summarizes Botswana's economic performance in 2009, with GDP contracting 6% due to declines in mining and exports. Inflation declined substantially in 2009 in Botswana but was expected to rise in early 2010. The Bank of Botswana maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance in 2009 while pursuing lower inflation targets in the future. Credit growth in Botswana turned positive in late 2009 while arrears remained elevated.
This document provides an overview of Botswana's financial sector as of 2009/2010. It discusses the evolution and structure of the banking sector, which has grown significantly over the past few decades to become an important part of the economy. The regulatory framework and key institutions governing the financial sector are also outlined. The report examines trends in the banking industry as well as the development of Botswana's non-bank financial sector, including capital markets, pensions, insurance, and other lenders. It concludes by identifying several important issues facing the future of Botswana's financial system.
The document provides an overview of Botswana's financial sector as of 2010/2011. It discusses the evolution and structure of the banking sector, which has grown increasingly important to Botswana's economy. The regulatory framework for banks and other non-bank financial institutions is also examined. Several issues facing the financial sector are analyzed, including the impact of the global crisis, competition and profitability trends in the banking industry, and potential future sources of growth.
2009 Product Innovation and Access to Finance (USAID)econsultbw
This technical report discusses product innovation and access to finance in Africa. It finds that the majority of the population in sub-Saharan Africa does not have access to formal financial services like banks, inhibiting economic growth. However, innovations in mobile money transfer, e-money and mobile banking are transforming access. These innovations reduce costs and allow new distribution models. Mobile network operators are well-positioned to provide low-cost transactions through non-traditional retail points. The report argues regulators need to support innovation without inhibiting it, and ensure risks from different financial products are appropriately managed.
The banking sector in Botswana has evolved significantly over time. Historically, it was dominated by Barclays and Standard Chartered banks. In the 1980s, reforms aimed to encourage competition by liberalizing bank licensing and introducing market-based monetary policy. This led to the entry of several new banks in the early 1990s, doubling the number of commercial banks. Meanwhile, several government-owned financial institutions played an important role in development lending. Overall, reforms have increased competition and efficiency in the banking sector.
2009 Bond Markets in SADC-COMESA Mapping Study (African Financial Markets I...econsultbw
This report provides an overview of bond market development initiatives in Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) countries. It analyzes bond market issues and constraints, regulatory frameworks, and ongoing initiatives to develop bond markets. Key findings include:
1) Bond markets in most SADC and COMESA countries remain underdeveloped, with low liquidity, narrow investor bases, short maturities, and high borrowing costs. This impacts financial sector competitiveness.
2) Developing bond markets could allow governments to borrow more in domestic currencies and lower dependency on foreign debt, increase corporate financing options, and catalyze financial market development and regional integration.
3) The
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be stronger in mining than non-mining sectors.
1. Bifm Economic Review 2nd Quarter 2005
Economic Review
Summary of different countries and the trade weights
used. Chart 1 shows the evolution of one of
crawling band mechanism for the Pula, in
which the Pula exchange rate will adjust in
Economic the possible REER measures in recent years,
using trade weights that reflect
line with expected inflation differentials
between Botswana and its major trading
Developments (approximately) Botswana’s entire trade
patterns, including diamonds1. It is clear that
partners, the Government has indicated that
it will not permit the real value of the Pula
Dr Keith Jefferis, after being relatively stable, on average,
through the 1990s, the REER appreciated
to deviate from a competitive, equilibrium
value in future. This should, in principle, rule
Chairman of sharply from mid-2002 onwards. If the
relatively stable value of the REER during the
out any need for further devaluations.
Furthermore, the adoption of a gradually
Bifm Investment 1990s is taken as an approximate equilibrium
value, then by January 2004, the Pula was
widening band (between the Bank of
Botswana’s buy and sell rates) will
Committee about 12% overvalued, in real terms. The
devaluation of February 2004 reversed part
progressively allow market forces to
determine the value of the Pula, hence
T
of the real appreciation, but this was eroded introducing an element of floating into the
by subsequent price and exchange rate exchange rate mechanism. This will, over
movements, with the result that the Pula time, enable monetary policy to become
was again 12% overvalued by April 2005. more effective in countering Botswana’s
The May 2005 devaluation takes the REER relatively high inflation as, until now, the
he major economic event of the second
back close to its long-term value, although fixed exchange rate has limited the
quarter of 2005 was the devaluation of the
of course an important issue going forward effectiveness of monetary policy.
Pula by 12 percent on May 29, and the
will be the extent to which the
introduction of a new mechanism for The announcement of the crawling band
competitiveness gains resulting from the
determining the Pula exchange rate. While mechanism gave few details about how it
devaluation can be sustained, given that
catching most people by surprise, there were will work in practice. Hence we do not yet
inflation is likely to rise.
good reasons for the move, and in the long know key details, such as what the rate of
term it should be positive for the economy. While it is the devaluation that has received crawl will be, and how it will be implemented
In the short term, however, there will be attention – understandably in terms of its – for instance, how frequently will the
negative consequences, including higher short-term impact – the change in the exchange rate against the basket be adjusted
inflation, and economic confidence has exchange rate mechanism is more important – daily, weekly, monthly, or at some other
undoubtedly taken a knock, which will take than the devaluation in terms of long-term interval? On the basis of historical inflation
some time to recover. impact on the economy. By adopting a continue...
As the Ministry of Finance and Development
Planning pointed out, the devaluation was
prompted by concern about Botswana’s
international competitiveness. Although there
are no detailed official figures on measures
of overall competitiveness, a useful starting
point is the Real Effective Exchange Rate
(REER). The real exchange rate adjusts the
actual (nominal) exchange rate for differences
in inflation between Botswana and its trading
partners; a (relatively) higher inflation rate in
Botswana, or an appreciating nominal
exchange rate, will cause competitiveness to
decline. The REER is simply the trade-weighted
average of bilateral real exchange rates with
Botswana’s major trading partners.
1.
This REER measure uses weights of 50% SA rand and 50% SDR (IMF Special Drawing Right, which is itself a basket
Various different REER measures are possible, including US dollar (45%), euro (29%), yen (15%) and pound (11%)). These proportions are intended to reflect trade
depending on the choice of price indices in patterns, not pula currency basket weights.
2. 2 Economic Review
differentials between Botswana and trading spending, and there will no doubt be pressure in international perspective, noting that
partners, a rate of crawl in the region of from some quarters for wage rises. Also floating exchange rate currencies can often
perhaps 2-3% a year might be expected. If important is the impact on economic move by much greater amounts – the
so, the individual adjustments against the confidence in and about Botswana. In the rand/dollar and euro/dollar rates being prime
basket will be relatively small, and certainly long-term, the devaluation and the new examples. Even on a trade weighted basis,
too small for speculative activity based on exchange rate policy should help to boost the rand depreciated by 6% between April
predicting the crawl adjustments to be confidence, as it will be supportive of growth. and June this year. The prospect of greater
worthwhile. That is why, in most countries In the short-term, however, the impact on nominal and real exchange rate stability for
that have adopted crawling bands or pegs, confidence has been extremely negative, for the pula going forward should provide some
the rate of crawl and frequency of adjustment a variety of reasons: not only was the compensation for the shock of the
is publicly disclosed. Nor do we know how devaluation sudden and unexpected (as it devaluation.
quickly the band will be widened, and hence had to be), it was also relatively large. Perhaps
Inflation and Interest Rates
how quickly the fixed Pula peg will be most damagingly for Botswana’s reputation
loosened, although it will be obvious to amongst foreign investors was the fact that Inflation has been generally falling since
market participants when this parameter is the devaluation came only two days before January, when it reached 8.0%, although
changed. the maturity of the P750m BW001 showing a disappointing increase from 6.2%
government bond, in which foreign investors in April to 6.3% in May, prior to the
Given the likely slow rate of crawl, and a had significant holdings. Their returns from devaluation. The May increase resulted mainly
slow widening of the band, the main investing in Botswana were, therefore, much from a hefty rise in the cost of new vehicles,
influence on Pula exchange rates against reduced and, while it could be argued that and resulted in inflation remaining just above
other currencies in the short term will continue the interest rate on the bond was high the top edge of the Bank of Botswana’s 3%-
to be cross exchange rate movements of the precisely to compensate for risk, including 6% inflation objective range for 2005.
currencies in the basket, especially the rand/US that of devaluation, the timing was
dollar rate. With the rand apparently on a Prior to the devaluation, inflation was
interpreted – wrongly – as being deliberately
depreciating trend against the dollar, the pula expected to continue falling through the
malicious. Recovering from a damaged
is likely to appreciate against the rand and year, and there was a good chance that it
international reputation and rebuilding
depreciate against the dollar for the remainder would soon have been with the BoB’s desired
confidence will undoubtedly be a slow
of this year. range. The devaluation has changed the
process.
inflation picture entirely, however, even
In the long term, the devaluation should be However, the devaluation is unlikely to have though predicting the inflationary impact of
of benefit to the economy, especially to any negative impact on Botswana’s the devaluation is difficult. Following the
exporting and import-competing sectors. The international credit rating. Both Moody’s and February 2004 devaluation of 7.5%, there
long-standing policy of export-led Standard & Poors have been concerned about were a few months of relatively large monthly
diversification is unlikely to be successful the slow pace of diversification and the price increases, but by July these had tailed
without a competitive exchange rate, and government’s fiscal problems, and the off and the overall impact on prices is
even those who have criticised the devaluation devaluation will help to address both of these estimated at 2%-3%. Assuming a similar
have generally failed to put forward issues. And while the magnitude of the pattern this time around, with the devaluation
alternative strategies for Botswana’s long devaluation was large by the standard of having a relatively small and fast pass-through
term economic development or suggested previous Botswana devaluations (7.5% in to prices, inflation can be expected to rise
how development can succeed with an 2004, and typically 5% or less during the
overvalued exchange rate. Immediate benefits 1980s and early 1990s), it needs to be kept continue...
will be felt by the mining sector, government,
manufacturing, tourism and other export-
oriented services, which together account
for around two-thirds of GDP. More generally,
the devaluation and accompanying exchange
rate policy changes signal a determination
by government to make international
competitiveness the overriding policy aim, in
support of export-led growth.
Short-term effects are more likely to be
negative, however. Inflation will undoubtedly
rise, although hopefully the effect will be
small and fast, as it was following the February
2004 devaluation of 7.5%. Real incomes will
fall, which will affect those sectors of the
economy dependent upon consumer
3. 3 Economic Review
by some 4%-5%. Therefore, a rise in inflation Conditions Index (MCI), which is calculated conditions has been in negative (weak)
to 10%-11% is likely over the next 2-3 as a weighted average of the real effective territory since early 2004, having started its
months, where (due to the annual nature of exchange rate (REER) and the real interest downward trend in mid-2003. It reached a
the inflation calculations) it will remain at rate (RIR). As Chart 3 shows, there has been low point at the end of 2004, but has since
least until the end of the first quarter of a steady rise (tightening) in the MCI recent improved slightly, although overall economic
2006 (see Chart 2). years, due to both an appreciating REER and conditions remain very weak3.
rising real interest rates2. A high or rising
As yet there have been no indications as to MCI will tend to constrain aggregate demand The economic downturn is not particularly
the likely monetary policy response to the and economic growth, and will also restrict surprising, although it is encouraging that it
devaluation; the Bank of Botswana’s mid- inflationary pressures. A lower MCI will tend appears to have bottomed out. As noted
term review of the Monetary Policy to be supportive of growth, but may be above, monetary and exchange rate
Statement, likely to be released in late August, inflationary if excessive aggregate demand conditions have been steadily tightening over
will provide important information in this pressures are stimulated. As the chart shows, a long period – at least prior to the May
regard. At the very least, it is likely that the the devaluation has reduced the MCI devaluation. Fiscal conditions have also been
monetary policy easing that had been considerably, leading to an easing of tight, with the slowdown in government
anticipated in the light of falling inflation monetary conditions, which should boost spending in the 2004/05 and 2005/06 fiscal
earlier in the year will be put on hold until growth prospects. years and lack of a public sector salary
the inflationary impact of the devaluation adjustment in 2005. This has had a negative
has worked itself out. Domestic Economic Conditions impact on certain economic sectors –
There is considerable evidence to suggest especially construction and the
Monetary Conditions Index
that domestic conditions remain weak, retail/wholesale trade sector. The latter will
The combined impact of monetary and although some indication that the slowing be squeezed further by higher costs and the
exchange rate conditions on the economy trend may have bottomed out. As Chart 4 contraction in real incomes resulting from
can be assessed by way of a Monetary shows, our indicator of domestic economic the devaluation. In the short-term it is likely
that domestic demand conditions will remain
weak. While troubling for some activities,
this is, however, a supportive environment
for the devaluation – weak domestic demand
makes it less likely that there will be a large
or long-lasting inflationary impact, and hence
more likely that the objectives of the
devaluation will be achieved.
2.
The weights used in the MCI calculation are 2/3 for the
RIR and 1/3 for the REER where, following convention,
the REER enters as percentage change, and the RIR as
the percentage point change, from the chosen base
period. While the weights should, in principle, be derived
from an empirical analysis of the impact of interest rates
and the exchange rate on economic growth, the
coefficients chosen here are consistent with those
estimated for other small open economies. The absolute
value of the MCI has no economic significance; what is
important is movements over time, and the value at a
particular point in time relative to the chosen base period.
3.
The index presented here represents a first attempt to
produce an indicator of domestic economic conditions
in Botswana. Such an initiative is constrained by the lack
of good quality, timely economic data – broad-based
indicators such as GDP, for instance, are only produced
with a relatively long lag. The indicator here combines
two data series that meet the requirements of quality
and timeliness – the annual growth rates of bank credit
to private businesses and of non-mining electricity
consumption – and which are reasonably representative
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