Sustainable Water - Energy - Centric Communities school May 9 - 13, 2016 – Lake Como School of Advanced Studies

1. Global Cycles of
Phosphorus and Nitrogen –
Resources and Leaks
David A. Vaccari
dvaccari@stevens.edu
Cities of the Future
Lago di Como
May 13, 2016

2. Outline
• Nutrients and life
• Environmental impacts of P and N
• Phosphorus resources
• The Phosphorus Cycle
• The Nitrogen Cycle
• Forecasting Phosphorus Demand
• A Vision of Sustainability
2

3. 3
What do plants need to grow?
• Sunlight
• Soil/substrate
• CO2 and H2O
• Macronutrients: N, P, K
S, Ca, Mg
• Micronutrients: Fe, Cl,
Mg

4. Nitrogen and Phosphorus in Life
• Redfield (Molar) Ratio: C:N:P = 106:16:1
– Due to homeostatic ratio of proteins to rRNA
• Nitrogen:
– Proteins
– DNA, etc.
• Phosphorus:
– ~0.65 kg P per person, 85% in bones
– Bones are 60% Calcium hydroxyapatite [Ca10(PO4)6(OH)2]
– DNA, RNA, ATP, Phospholipid membranes
– 700 mg/d P reference dose; 1500 mg/d typical
– Drinking water corrosion control – lead and copper
4

5. Nitrogen and Phosphorus Pollution
• Nitrogen:
– Eutrophication (marine environments)
– Greenhouse gases – NO2
– Acid rain (NOX)
– Smog (NOX)
– Nitrogenous oxygen demand (organic-N, ammonia)
– Nitrates in drinking water
(methemoglobinemia in infants)
• Phosphorus:
– Eutrophication (aquatic and marine environments)
– “Gypstacks” blight the landscape near mines
5

6. 6
Buckwell, A., Nadeu, E. 2016. Nutrient Recovery and Reuse in European Agrigulture.
A review of the issues, opportunities and actions. RISE Foundation, Brussels.

7. 7
Freshwater Eutrophication
http://phys.org/news/2015-12-severe-algal-blooms-lake-erie.html
P > 50 ppb

8. 8
“Dead Zones” – Hypoxic Zones
– not just nitrogen any more

9. How long will it last?
Where do we get our
phosphorus from?

10. US Phosphorus Sources
A phosphate mine in Hardee County in central Florida.
Seventy-five percent of the phosphate used in the United States comes from the region.
By Adrianne Appel, New York Times, August 4, 2007

11. 11
12,000 hp = 9 MW

12. 2012 estimation of global reserves - USGS

13. Morocco and Western Sahara –
The Saudi Arabia of Phosphorus

14. Global Trend in Production and Population

15. 15
Natural Sources:
Erosion, Sedimentation, Flooding

16. PlantsHarvest
The Phosphorus Cycle
Bedrock &
Sediment
Phosphate
Rock
Fresh
water
Oceans
People
Fertilizer
Wastes
Domestic
Animals
Soil
Farm
land
Anthropogenic
29 Mt/y
1x
Natural
10 Mt/y
47x

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Global Substance Flow Analysis for P
Cordell, Drangert and White, 2009
17

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Flow of P in our Food System
18
Industrial uses
Beneficiated Phosphate Rock -- 17.5
Taken up by crops -- 12
Applied to soil -- 14
Losses -- 7
3
P in food -- 3.5
Erosion -- 8
Removed in harvest -- 70.9
1.2
3
1.8
1.5
1
0.9
Grazing -- 12.1
Animal manure -- 15
Recyled manure -- 8
Distribution losses
Consumed by humans
Landfill etc.
Human waste
Food chain losses
Wastewater discharge
Crop losses
Post-harvest losses
2 Crop residues
0.9
Animal feed
additives
0.3
Wastewater or
excreta reuse
Solid Wastes - 0.2
2.6 Livestock
Mined Phosphate RockMine losses
P Fertilizer Production -- 14.9
3

19. 19

20. Where Does Bioavailable
Nitrogen Come From?
• Natural sources – nitrogen fixers
– Rhizobium (in legumes)
– Azotobacter (free-living in soil)
– Some Cyanobacter (Blue-Green Bacteria)
• Agro-industrial sources:
– Guano (depleted)
– Haber-Bosch Process

21. Biochemical transformations of N

22. Storage reservoirs of nitrogen. Values are kg/m2.
(Based on Whittaker, 1975.)
NO3
-
Soil/Ocean
0.84
NH3
Soil/Ocean
0.056
NO2
-
Soil/Ocean
0.027
Organic N
Soil/Ocean
1.2
NH3
Atmosphere
0.000024
N2O
Atmosphere
0.0030
N2
Atmosphere
7550
NH4
+
Igneous Rocks
860
N2
Ocean
42
N2O
Ocean
0.00062
Organic N
Sediments
8800
NO3
-
Sediments
0.005
Organic N
Plants
0.067
Organic N
Animals
0.00215

23. Global Nitrogen Cycle
(Tg/yr)
AtmN2
NO2
-
NO3
-
NH3
Organic
N
Assimilation
1000Reduction
BIOFIXATION
Land 139
Sea 10-90
Nitrification or
Chemical Oxidation
Mineralization
(Ammonification)
NOX
Lightning 4
Forest fires 12
COMBUSTION 21
Deposition to: Land Sea Total
Acid rain 17 9 26
Dry deposition 15 4 19
Denitrification
Land 107-161
Sea 40-120
Volcanism 5
INDUSTRIAL FIXATION
40
37

24. 24
Nitrogen budget for EU-27 (Mt/yr)
Buckwell, A., Nadeu, E. 2016. Nutrient Recovery and Reuse in European Agrigulture.
A review of the issues, opportunities and actions. RISE Foundation, Brussels.

25. Detailed
Nitrogen
Cycle

26. 26
Buckwell, A., Nadeu, E. 2016. Nutrient Recovery and Reuse in European Agrigulture.
A review of the issues, opportunities and actions. RISE Foundation, Brussels.

27. Haber-Bosch Process
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/db/Haber-Bosch-
En.svg/450px-Haber-Bosch-En.svg.png
https://intothechemistry.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/129622b.jpg?w=624

28. 28
Recommended reading: Vaclav Smil: “Enriching the Earth” (MIT Press)
“Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch have probably had a greater impact than
anyone in the past 100 years, including Hitler, Gandhi, Einstein, etc.”
http://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/haberbosch.html)

29. Asimov on Chemistry
“Life’s Bottleneck”
The highest ratio of concentration in
plant to that in soil:
P: 5.8; S: 2.0; Cl: 1.5;
All others: <1.0
Isaac Asimov
Balloun Lecture
Vlasta Klima
“We may be able to substitute
nuclear power for coal power,
and plastics for wood, and yeast
for meat, and friendliness for
isolation, but for phosphorus there
is neither substitute of nor
replacement.”

30. Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Message to Congress on Phosphates for Soil
Fertility.
May 20, 1938
“The disposition of our phosphate deposits should
be regarded as a national concern. The situation
appears to offer an opportunity for this nation to
exercise foresight in the use of a great national
resource heretofore almost unknown in our plans
for the development of the nation.”
“It is, therefore, high time for the Nation to adopt
a national policy for the production and
conservation of phosphates for the benefit of this
and coming generations.”
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=15643
30

31. Connections
Energy
Fossil
Fuel
H2O
CO2
N
P
Renewable
Food and
other biomass
OM
Land
Top Soil
Population
Ethanol

32. Cycle interactions - Nutrients
• Phosphorus production requires sulfur
• Nitrogen production requires energy
(natural gas)
• Natural gas production produces sulfur

33. Cycle Interactions – Elements
• Fossil fuel consumption produces CO2
• CO2 sequestration requires energy
• CO2 increases primary production, but in some
cases of weeds
• Nitrogen requires energy
• Phosphorus recycling requires energy

34. Cycle interactions - Food
• Food production requires energy
• Food production requires nitrogen
• Food production requires phosphorus
• Utilization of fertilizer requires irrigation
• Food production requires arable land
• Natural terrestrial ecosystems recycle nutrient and
contribute OM for topsoil formation
• Harvesting removes nutrients and OM from land

35. Cycle Interactions - Energy
• Fossil fuel consumption produces CO2
• CO2 changes the water cycle
• Nitrogen fertilizer production requires energy
• Utilize ethanol to make energy
• Food is diverted to produce ethanol
• CO2 may fertilize weeds, also increases GPP
• Concentration of phosphorus will require energy
• CO2 sequestration requires energy

36. Using corn for bio-fuel production
(courtesy James Barnard)
With 40% of the
grain crop going to
bio-fuels for no gain
in energy and
enormous subsidies

37. Cycle interactions - Water
• Water cycle affects arable land
• Water desalinization requires energy
• CO2 changes water cycle
(precipitation, ice cover)
• Droughts can have two effects:
(1) Direct loss of water for irrigation; and
(2) Loss of water for hydroelectric generation to
pump irrigation water, just when it would be most
needed

38. Liters of Water required for
production:
• A glass of wine 1
• One kW-hr of electricity 71
• A glass of beer 75
• A glass of milk 200
• Human consumption for one year ~1,000
• A hamburger 2,400
• Daily 10-minute showers for a year 34,675
• A U.S.-made Chevy Malibu 1,934,500

39. Forecasting Phosphorus Demand
39

40. 2012 estimation of global reserves - USGS

41. Global Trend in Production and Population
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
WorldPopulation(billions)
Production(MtPR/yr)

42. Hubbert Curve for P (Dery)
42
Peak = 1988
URR = 2850 Mt
Peak = 1989;
URR = 8000 Mt
(USGS URR = 67,000 Mt)

43. 43
Fixing the URR (Cordell et al)
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
WorldPRProduction(Mt/yr)
Year
Peak = 2035

44. Hubbert Curve Uncertainty
44
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
USPRProduction(Mt/yr)
Year
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
USPRProduction(Mt/yr)
Year
1980 1985

45. Global Trend in Production and Population
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
WorldPopulation(billions)
Production(MtPR/yr)

46. Per Capita Global PR Production
46
Kg PR
/cap/yr
g P
/cap/d
Avg 1974-1990 30.1 10.8
Avg 1993-2008 22.7 8.15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
PR/n(kg/cap/yr)

47. Recent trend in per-capita
production
47
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PercapitaPRProduction(kg/yr)

48. Extrapolation at constant PR/n
48
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400
GlobalProduction(MtPR/yr)
Year
Reserves half-exhausted
2125 / 2145
Reserves exhausted
2270 / 2315
The lower curve uses avg PR/n for 1993-2008: 22.7 kg PR/cap/yr
The upper curve is uses avg PR/n for 2009-2012: 27.1 kg PR/cap/yr

49. Using a range of population estimates
49
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400
Year
GlobalProduction(Mt/yr)
Historical Production Medium population High population
Low population Half USGS Reserves All USGS Reserves
Half IFDC Reserves All IFDC Reserves
2100 2200
High 14,000 21,200
Medium 9,100 8,500
Low 5,500 3,165

50. Definitions of sustainability
• Webster's New International Dictionary
"Sustain - to cause to continue (as in existence or a certain
state, or in force or intensity); to keep up, especially without
interruption diminution, flagging, etc.; to prolong.”
• Sustainability is improving the quality of human life while living
within the carrying capacity of supporting eco-systems
• Sustainability encompasses the simple principle of taking from
the earth only what it can provide indefinitely, thus leaving
future generations no less than we have access to ourselves
• Sustainability encompasses the simple principle of taking from
the earth only what it can provide indefinitely, thus leaving
future generations no less than we have access to ourselves
http://www.sustainablemeasures.com/node/36

51. Proposed definition
• Sustainability is a condition of a
steady-state or pseudo-steady-state society with
respect to utilization of resources including
materials, human resources and environmental
services

52. 52
What ought to be our
planning horizon?
Sustainability means forever

53. Jared Diamond’s Five Factors for
“Collapse”
• Environmental damage
• Climate change
• Hostile neighbors
• Friendly trade partners
• Society’s responses to
environmental problems
(always present in collapses)

54. Jared Diamond’s 12 Kinds of
Environmental Damage:
1. Deforestation and habitat destruction
2. Soil problems (erosion, salinization, fertility loss)
3. Water management problems
4. Overhunting
5. Overfishing
6. Introduced species
7. Human population growth
8. Increased per capita impact of people
9. Human-caused climate change
10. Accumulation of toxic chemicals
11. Energy shortages
12. Full human use of the Earth’s carrying capacity

55. What can save us?
• New resource discoveries
– Coal vs. wood in England
– Iron for Henry Ford
– Patagonian Toothfish and Slimehead
• New technologies
– Haber process in WWI
– Synthetic rubber in WWII
– Breeder reactors
– Green revolution and genetic
engineering

56. What is needed
• Reduced “footprint”
• Population reduction
•Political will:
•Women’s rights and education
Long-term view
Resource sharing
Interest in others’ welfare

58. Cassandra
From Wikipedia (8/07):
In Greek mythology, Cassandra (Greek:
Κασσάνδρα "she who entangles
men") (also known as Alexandra)
A daughter of King Priam and Queen
Hecuba of Troy whose beauty
caused Apollo to grant her the gift
of prophecy
However, when she did not return his
love, Apollo placed a curse on her
so that no one would ever believe
her predictions

59. Thank you
David A. Vaccari
Stevens Institute of Technology
Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA
dvaccari@stevens.edu