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ALLOCATION OF RISK IN A BUSINESS RESTRUCTURING ,[object Object]
(Re)allocation of risk ,[object Object],[object Object]
Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expected value ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Variance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risk-return relation Expected return Variance
Risk-return trade-offs Risk premium Profit potential given up Loss potential  hedged
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) ,[object Object],WACC Average cost of equity Average cost of debt Capital structure (D/E Ratio) Cost of equity Average gross cost of debt Tax shield Risk free rate (3-4%) Market risk premium (4-5%) Industry beta (0.68-2.4)
Example
Risk-return trade-offs WACC 12% WACC 7%
Risk-return trade-offs (TPG 9.10): In the open market, the assumption of increased risk would also be compensated by an increase in the expected return, although the actual return may or may not increase depending on the degree to which the risks are actually realised.
Risk in business restructurings Three rules of risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Proposition for discussion ,[object Object]
Case study FFD Business Model Operational profit Revenu Sales ASP ($47,50-$52,50) Sales volume (850k—950k) Cost of sales ACP ($37,50) Sales volume (850k-950k) Opex Fixed Opex ($5.5m) Variable Opex Cost ratio (10%) Sales ASP ($47,50-$52,50) Sales volume (850k-950k)
Case study
Risk distribution FFD
Conversion FFD into commissionaire Midpoint commission rate: 2% Upper Quartile commission rate: 5% Options realistically available: Current situation:
Conversion FFD into commissionaire Midpoint commission rate: 2% Upper Quartile commission rate: 5% 5% commission rate 2% commission rate
Proposition for discussion ,[object Object],[object Object]
Case study (continued) Use of WACC to evaluate after conversion TP  Value Consolidated Value LRD Value Principal Forecast LRD profit LRD WACC Forecast Principal profit Principal WACC
Case study (continued) Use of WACC to evaluate after conversion TP
Case study (continued) Use of WACC to evaluate after conversion TP
Case study (continued) Solved on commissionaire WACC
Case study (continued) Solved on Principal WACC
Case study (continued) Solved on Commissionaire rate
Proposition for discussion ,[object Object]
Proposition for discussion ,[object Object],[object Object]

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