The government’s recent loosening of the lockdown has sparked heated debates regarding the following question: What are the optimal ways of loosening restrictions that minimize public health damage while maximizing economic recovery?

1. Reopening the Economy:
Strategies and Way Forward
for Bangladesh

2. Executive Summary
 Bangladesh is struggling to cope with the economic and public health damages inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic.
 Even with one of the poorest testing rates in the regions, 168,645 cases and 2,151 deaths have been confirmed so far (8 July).
 GDP Growth Rate projections have been reduced by more than 6 percentage points to 1.6% from 8.1%, due to the pandemic.
 The government’s decision to loosen restrictions, at the end of May, sparked heated debates regarding the following question: What are the optimal
ways of loosening restrictions that minimize public health damages while maximizing economic recovery?
 LightCastle Partners attempts to answer that question by employing a 3-step plan that consists of:
 Analyzing lockdown easing strategies that have been applied by other nations
 Evaluating requirements for and obstructions to applying such strategies in Bangladesh
 Applying LightCastle’s in-house frameworks to combat obstructions and implement globally used lockdown easing strategies
 Specifically, LightCastle’s in-house framework ranks sectors for reopening based on Economic-, Industry-, Health-, and Safety-Related Criteria.
 Healthcare ranks high on the scale, whereas RMG ranks Medium-to-High.
 LightCastle also puts forth customized action plans for reopening sectors, based on rankings.
 Frameworks and suggestions put forth may aid in balancing between maximizing economic activity and minimizing public health damages.
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3. Contents
1. The Unfolding of the Crisis in Bangladesh
2. How can Nations Successfully Battle COVID-19?
3. Lockdown Easing Strategies Applied by Other Nations
4. Reopening Might Come at a Very High Cost
5. Applicable Strategies with Adaptations for Bangladesh
6. The Way Forward
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4. 1. The Unfolding of the Crisis in Bangladesh
Drastic Global Spread Causes Economic
and Public Health Woes
● China publicly shared the genetic sequence of
COVID-19 on 12 January 2020. 1
● Within 2 weeks, additional 18 countries were
infected.
● Confirmed Cases — 11,669,259 (8 July)
● Confirmed Deaths — 539,906 (8 July)
● Pandemic has also caused severe economic
damages.
● Nations across the globe, many for the first
time, have reported recessions.
● Nevertheless, policy makers are implementing,
lockdown easing strategies to restore economic
normalcy.
Fig.1: Weekly COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the World (11 Jan–8 July, Week: Mon–Sun). Source: WHO (COVID-19) Dashboard
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Deaths
(Thousands)
Cases
(Thousands)
Week No. in 2020
Covid-19 in the World: Weekly Cases & Deaths
Cases Deaths

5. The Unfolding of the Crisis in Bangladesh
Despite Surging Cases, Bangladesh
Relaxes Lockdown to Salvage Livelihood
● First 3 known cases were confirmed by the
Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control And
Research (IEDCR) on 8 March 2020.
● Confirmed Cases — 168,645 (8 July)
● Confirmed Deaths — 2,151 (8 July)
● At the end of March, the government announced a
10–day ban on travel.4
● The ban was initially extended till 11 April.
● A lockdown was announced, which later extended
until 30 May.5
● Public and private offices were allowed to open on
limited scale after Eid Holiday.
● Starting May 31, restrictions on travel were lifted
to allow people to travel during and after Eid. 6
● The announcement came at a time when cases
and deaths continued to surge daily.
5
Fig.2: Weekly COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Bangladesh (8 Mar–8 July, Week: Mon–Sun.). Source: WHO (COVID-19) Dashboard
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4
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6
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8
9
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30
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Deaths
(Hundreds)
Cases
(Thousands)
Week No. in 2020
Covid-19 in Bangladesh: Weekly Cases & Deaths
Cases Deaths
Initial Extended
Lockdown

6. The Unfolding of the Crisis in Bangladesh
Government Announces Zoning System to Curb Transmission
● On June 6, the country was divided into 3 color zones, Red, Green, and Yellow, based on infections per 100,000 population.7 8
6
Table 1: Three colored zones for COVID-19 regulations in Bangladesh

7. The Unfolding of the Crisis in Bangladesh
GDP Growth, Employment, Exports & Remittances to
Tumble
● GDP Growth Rate Projections for FY 19-20 has been adjusted
down to 1.6% from 8.1% due to the pandemic — a drop of +6
percentage points.
● The growth rate of 1.6% will be the lowest in 37 years.
● 6 months of the outbreak will lead to 900,000 job losses.10
● Inward remittances might fall by ~22% in 2020.16
● Export earnings of Bangladesh to fall short by 21% of the
period’s target.17
● Export orders worth USD 3 billion of RMG goods were
canceled until 2 April 2020.18
7
1.6%
GDP Growth Rate
FY 19-20
June 20 Projection
900k
More Job Losses
after 6 mon. outbreak
22%
Drop in Inward
Remittance
21%
Deficit in Export
Earnings (vs. Target)
8.1%
GDP Growth Rate
FY 19-20
Oct 19 Projection
USD 3Bn
Cancelled RMG Orders
until April 2020

8. 2. How can Nations Successfully Battle COVID-19?
2-Metric Model suggests Relaxed
Restrictions for Bangladesh
● The opening of Economies can logically
framed on 2 metrics: Mobility and COVID-
19 recovery rate. 23
● For Bangladesh, where the number of
internet users is only 90.05 million of the
population, the mobility rate will be highly
underestimated.24
● Thus, Bangladesh should be under the
high mobility and low recovery quadrant
(Quadrant II).
● For countries like Bangladesh, relaxed
restrictions and loosened lockdown
measures are the most appropriate.
● In addition, Bangladesh must carefully
weigh the reopening strategies adopted
by different nations.
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Fig. 3: The 2–Metric Model

9. 3. Lockdown Easing Strategies Applied by Other Nations
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Deploying Tracing and Healthcare Technology
● More than 2 million Australians have used the Bluetooth-enabled COVIDSafe app that informs users of the past and present presence of
COVID-positive users within 1.5m radius.26
● In China, individuals can only leave the house with a green health pass. The color of the pass changes based on proximity with infection
sources.30
Relaxing Restriction on Selected Sectors
● Australia relaxed restrictions on education institutions and elective surgeries, starting May. 26
● In mid–May, the Italian government announced lifting of regional travel restrictions by June 3 to salvage the tourism industry.31
Stalwart Sanitization
● It is uncommon for individuals in Beijing to leave the house without a mask and a sanitizer.
● Likewise, hotels in Hong Kong have vigorously ramped up their sanitization efforts—rules mandate pre-shift temperature checks for
staff in certain hotels. 30
Controlling Public Gatherings
● Germany has restarted their football league but has not permitted gatherings of more than 10 people yet.
● The same measures are also in place in Denmark, Austria, Italy, and France.
Transforming Transportation
● Temperature scanners in Beijing subways have become commonplace and send off alarms if an entering commuter has a fever. 30

10. 4. Reopening Might Come at a Very High Cost
Diligent Reopening Plan Critical for Economic
Recovery
● Reopening plans will determine the type of economic
recovery Bangladesh can achieve.
● This is critical given the dependence of 6 million Small and
Medium Enterprises (SMEs) on the local economy.
● Plans should target a V-shaped economic recovery—
where the economy bounces back rapidly to pre-pandemic
growth rates.
● While pandemic was unexpected and disastrous, many
nations emerged with sophisticated reopening
strategies.
● Some of the strategies could be examined for
application to Bangladesh.
● The socio-economic landscape, as well as the
infrastructural deficiencies of the country, must be
considered as well.
10
Image 1: Workers in Bangladesh. Source: The Business Standard
GDP
Time
Pre-Corona
Baseline
Fig. 4: A V-shaped Post-Pandemic Recovery. Source: The Brookings Institute

11. 5. Applicable Strategies with Adaptations for Bangladesh
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Table 2: Lockdown Easing Strategies Employed in Different Nations with Requirements & Obstacles for Implementation in Bangladesh

12. Applicable Strategies with Adaptations for Bangladesh
Table 3: Framework for Ranking Sectors for Reopening
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LightCastle’s Framework Ranks Sectors Using Economic-, Industry- & Health-Related Criteria
LightCastle has developed this framework for 2 critical purposes: prioritizing which sectors to reopen (high-ranking sectors in the case of
another lockdown) and designing the timelines for reopening those sectors.
Contribution to GDP
Contribution to Employment
Financial Demographic —
Workforce
Critical Industry?
Export-Oriented Sector?
Time-Sensitive Product/Service?
Possibility of Remote Work?
Possibility of Social Distancing
Public Health Awareness
Criteria Scale
0-10037
0-10037
0-10037
0-100
0-100
0-100
0-100
0-100
0-100
Mechanism
Criteria Type
Economic & Labor Market
Output- & Industry-Related
Health- & Safety-Related
Sector’s contribution as % of GDP in 2019
Workforce as % of Total Labor Force in 2019
GDP/Capita as % of Annual Median Wages in 2019
Critical Sectors, e.g., healthcare, receive higher scores
Sectors that are export-oriented receive higher scores
Sectors, with output at high risk of spoilage, receive higher
scores
Sectors, with high feasibility of remote work, receive lower
scores
Sectors, with ease of social distancing, receive higher scores
Sectors, with high health awareness, receive higher scores

13. Applicable Strategies with Adaptations for Bangladesh
Sectors that are Critical and yield High Socio-Economic Benefits rank Higher
• Policy makers may even choose to assign weights to the criteria, based on the public health and socio-economic scenario.
• In case of another lockdown, sectors which rank high, like healthcare, or medium-high like RMG, may be considered for reopening only with
proper safety measures.
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Fig. 5: Ranking of Sectors/Industries using LightCastle’s Framework
Sector Ranking
High
Medium
Low
Healthcare
 Critical Sector
 Time-Sensitive Service
 Low Possibility of Remote Work
 High Public Health Awareness, etc.
RMG
 High contribution to GDP
 High contribution to Employment
 Export-oriented Sector
 Low Possibility of Remote Work
 Medium Public Health Awareness, etc.
Theatres & Cinemas
(Entertainment)
 Relatively Low Economic Contribution
 Not Critical Industry
 Low Possibility of Social Distancing, etc.

14. Applicable Strategies with Adaptations for Bangladesh
Sectors which Rank Higher can Reopen with Caution
Sectors which rank high or medium can be opened using customized action plans.
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Table 4: Customized Action Plans for Sectors, based on Ranking
Sector Ranking Reopening Decision Customized Action Plan for Reopening
High Yes, with caution Proper Social Distancing Guidelines
Strict Hygiene Compliance
Dedicated Transportation for Employees
Regular Public Health Awareness
Yes, with caution
Medium Reopening only critical subsectors
Social Distancing, if possible
Regular Public Health Awareness & Strict Hygiene Compliance
Low Best if avoided or limited Reopening only critical subsectors
Pilot Test Reopening
Automate processes to avoid transmission
Rigorous Social Distancing and Hygiene Compliance

15. Applicable Strategies with Adaptations for Bangladesh
Well-Publicized Health Campaigns Play Critical
Role in Curbing Infection
● Partnerships between private sector and the public
sector players would be key in success.
● Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies and
advertising firms could be considered as private sector
partners.
● Well-defined guidelines for maintaining health and
hygiene must be pronounced in public spaces and
transportation systems.
Targeted Isolation to Break the Chain of
Transmission
● The use of the zoning system, if adhered to properly,
may be a practical way to relax restrictions while
isolating individuals.
● It will also be key to enforce tougher isolation
restrictions for incoming international travelers.
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Image 2: Disinfectant Station in Dhaka. Source: Reuters

16. Applicable Strategies with Adaptations for Bangladesh
Private Public Partnerships to Compensate for Poor
Healthcare Infrastructure
● Robust Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in the healthcare
ecosystem will be critical in increasing recovery rates and
curbing transmission.
● The launch of Telemedicine in mid-May and a beta version tracer
app in early June were a promising start.
● The healthcare system in Bangladesh suffers from a massive
ventilator shortage.
● Imports for ventilators, which have witnessed a spike due to
the pandemic, have been delayed.
● 18 local companies are in the technical trails of
manufacturing proto-type ventilators.
● Deliberate and concrete government support could accelerate
local manufacturing of ventilators.40
Image 3: Telemedicine Application Developed by Pathao, Maya and Praava Health. Source: Pathao Health
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Image 4: Walton Ventilator Prototypes. Source: The Daily Star

17. 5. Applicable Strategies with Adaptations for Bangladesh
Targeted Isolation and Health Campaigns of Paramount Importance
These action items may be effective in adapting some of the lockdown easing strategies, which have been applied in other nations, in Bangladesh.
Table 5: Rigorous Adaptation Strategies for Lockdown Easing
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18. 6. The Way Forward — No Substitute for Tactical Implementation
 Reopening strategies will vary according to attributes of a country, and measures implemented in one nation cannot be exactly emulated in
another.
 Policy and business decision makers in Bangladesh may, however, utilize LightCastle’s 3-step plan of action that yields the following results:
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STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3
Lockdown Easing Strategies commonly used by
other countries are:
• Relaxing Restrictions on Certain Sectors
• Controlling Public Gatherings
• Deploying Tracing & Healthcare Technology
• Transforming Transportation
• Stalwart Sanitization
Bangladesh will face the following obstacles in
implementing Strategies in Step 1:
• High Population Density
• Poor Healthcare System & Testing Rates
• Low level of Compliance to and Awareness on
Health & Hygiene
• High Implementation Cost of Healthcare
Technology
LightCastle suggests the following action items
to combat obstructions in Step 2:
• Customized Frameworks to Rank Sectors for
Reopening
• Public Health and Hygiene Campaigns
• Targeted Isolation
• Public Private Partnerships in Healthcare
Technology
 The frameworks and customized plans of action suggested in this report may aid in maximizing economic recovery while minimizing
public health damages.

19. ENDNOTES
1. WHO. (2020). WHO Timeline COVID -19
2. WHO. (2020). WHO Coronavirus Disease Dashboard. Updated July 8 2020.
3.WHO. (6 June 2020). COVID-19 Situation in the WHO South-East Asia Region
4. New Age. (2020). Govt imposes 10-day ban on public transports from March 26
5. GARDA WORLD. (2020). Bangladesh: Government extends nationwide lockdown
until April 11
6. The Business Standard. (2020). Govt decides not to extend general holidays further
7. UNB. (2020). Parameters set for red, green and yellow zones
8. The Business Standard. (2020). Govt to divide country into red, yellow, and green
zones
9. Daily Bangladesh. (2020). 13-point hygiene instructions for offices, factories
10. East Asia Forum. (2020). COVID-19 batters Bangladesh’s already struggling
economy
11.The Business Standard. (2020). World Bank forecasts only 1.6% GDP growth for
Bangladesh
12.The Business Standard. (2020). Stimulating employment, healthcare key to reviving
coronavirus-affected economy: StanChart CEO
13. World Economic Forum. (2020). How Bangladesh’s leaders should respond to the
economic threats of COVID-19
14. New Age. (2019). Poverty rate lowers to 20.5pc in 2018-19
15. LSE. (2020). Coronavirus and the Bangladesh economy: Navigating the global
COVID-19 shutdown
16. The Financial Express. (2020). World Bank projects 22pc fall in remittances
17. The Financial Express. (2020). Export earnings witness 82.85pc negative growth in
April
18. KPMG. (2020). Measures in response to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
19. The Financial Express. (2020). BD economy loses Tk 33b every day during
shutdown: Study
20. Bangladesh Bank. (2020). DMD Circular No – 1/2020 Government Securities
21. Google. (2020). COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports
22. CoronaTracker. (2020). COVID-19 Reports
23. Visual Capitalist. (2020). The Road to Recovery: Which Economies are Reopening?
24. Future Startup. (2019). The Mobile And Internet Penetration Growth Continues,
Internet’s Deployment Phase
25. World Bank Blogs. (2020). Reopening Malaysia’s economy in a new normal
26. The Financial Times. (2020). New Zealand and Australia open up after coronavirus
success
27. Ministry of Health, New Zealand. (2020). COVID-19 - current cases
28. CNBC. (2020). ‘Like walking the tightrope’: Some European countries are starting to
lift coronavirus lockdown measures
29. BBC. (2020). Coronavirus: How lockdown is being lifted across Europe
30. Conde Nast Traveler. (2020). These Countries Are Opening Back Up—And
Cautiously Preparing for Domestic Travel
31. Al Jazeera English. (2020). The rushed easing of lockdown measures could
devastate Italy
32. The Washington Post. (2020). Reopening too soon: Lessons from the deadly
second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic
33. The Conversation. (2020). This is why Singapore’s coronavirus cases are growing:
a look inside the dismal living conditions of migrant workers
34. DIRSI, LIRNEasia and Research ICT Africa. (2019). AfterAccess: ICT access and
use in Asia and the Global South
35. The World Bank Data. (2020). Population Density
36. McKinsey & Company. (2020). How to restart national economies during the
coronavirus crisis
37. Percentage to be removed for final score
38. The Atlantic. (2020). What’s Behind South Korea’s COVID-19 Exceptionalism?
39. Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR)
40. The Dhaka Tribune. (2020). Covid-19: Whatever happened to importing
ventilators?.
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20. Disclaimer:
All information contained herein is obtained by LightCastle from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or
mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein “As IS” without warranty of any kind.
LightCastle adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses is of sufficient quality and from sources LightCastle considers to be reliable
including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, LightCastle is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in preparing publications.
Farah Hamud Khan - Senior Business Consultant & Project Manager (farah.khan@lightcastlebd.com)
Nahian Hasnin - Business Analyst (nahian.hasnin@lightcastlebd.com)
Eqra Mohammad Resalat Ohee - Trainee Consultant
Md. Tanjim Morshed - Creative Design Associate
LightCastle Partners
Level 5, House 10/12, Road 1, Block B, Niketan
Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh.
Email: info@lightcastlebd.com
Mobile: +88 01711 385988, +88 01747 353438
Web: www.lightcastlebd.com
Data on Demand Platform: databd.co
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