We cannot simplydisregard unprovenfounders,otherwise we will be passing on too many high quality investment opportunities – e.g. Vitalik Buterin had no unfair advantages when he started Ethereum
• However, we would require that the startup idea showing some tractions, which can be proven by the market
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Avium_Venture_Scout_1.pdf
1.
2. Can it 100x?
(most important)
Do the founders
have unfair
advantages?
If no unfair
advantage, is the
idea validated by
market?
1 3
2
Referring startup
4
3. Can it 100x?
VC-backable business
Early stage firms that could potentially scale to generate
outsized returns (at least 10x in company value)
Lifestyle Business
May be profitable but won’t give you outsized returns
(perhaps due to small TAM)
PE-backable business
Mature businesses with steady and predictable cash
flows
There are generally
3 kinds of
businesses:
VC-backable business
Early stage firms that could potentially scale
to generate outsized returns
Grey Areas
Nowadays, there are a lot of grey areas in between. E.g.
is Kopi Kenangan VC-backable? What about Casper?
4. Can it 100x?
What is conventionally “good” is not enough...
Let’s use a $50M fund with expected 3X returns (i.e. $150M)
within 5-10 years.
Of which…
20% goes into OPEX - $10M
40% first cheque - $20M
40% follow-ons (reinvest in biggest winners) - $20M
AFX perhaps will do $1M investments on average during the
first round, i.e. 20 investments of $1M each.
Typically, majority of new ventures fail. Say 90% of the
investment fails/just breaking even. That leaves us with 2
remaining investments which generate returns.
If those two $1M investments achieve 5X ROI = $10M total,
that is just simply not enough to achieve the targeted fund
return of $150M.
… everycompany we invest in must have 100x potential
Given the power law, that is why we ONLY invest those that
has huge growth potential (100X), else we are always losing
money...
A 100X return in any one of the 20 investments we
hypothetically make will allow us to achieve $100M in returns,
putting the fund on good track towards achieve targeted fund
returns.
Vast majority of the funds
returns will come from only very
few number of100X companies,
hence we only invest in
companies with potential to
100X
Portfolio
companies
Returns
5. Can it 100x?
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
B Capital,DFJ Growth, VantagePoint, EV Growth …
Y Combinator,Surge,Cocoon Capital …
Vertex, Wavemaker, EastVentures ...
Canaan,Texas Pacific Group, Accel/KKR …
CreditSaison,Rakuten,Burda Principal Investments
Temasek (SG), PIF (Saudi Arabia), QIA (Qatar) …
Bezos Expeditions,Gates Foundation, AJ Capital …
Goldman Sachs/Morgan StanleyWealth Mgmt …
Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, BlackRock …
Late Stage Venture Funds
Angels and Seed Investors
Early-to-Mid Stage Investors
Private Equity Growth Funds
Corporations
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Family Offices
Investment Banks
Crossover Public Investors
08
09
Later stage investors
who will help drive
the value of startups
invested by MSW
Ventures, or even be
the “exit liquidity”
6. Founders unfair advantage
Expertise
Track
record
Connections
Stacked
team
Gary Vee’s VeeFriends
raised USD 50M in 2022;
Gary Vee itself is a global
household brand and
social media influencer
with strong track record
*Non-exhaustive; There are more traits in founders that a VC would look at that requires knowing the founders at personal level, e.g. personality, bias for action, transparency etc.
D3 Labs raised pre-seed
round in April 2023;The
founders have deep
connection with the
regulatory body of
Indonesia specifically for
stablecoins
Ethlas raised USD8.7M in
2022;It assembled an
impressive tech team
suited for its vision from the
get-go including from Grab,
Google,Microsoft, Airbnb
Example founders/startup’s unfair advantages
Gabrielle Leydon’s
DigiDaigaku raised
200M in 2022;He has
strong expertise in
mobile gaming and was
behind several high-
grossing mobile games
7. • For B2C startups, the bestvalidation would be actual IRL consumption of product by paying
customers; An example would be OpenSEA having massive amountofactive traders in 2021 despite
everyone complaining aboutBrokenSEA
• For B2B startups, securing contracts / LOI / MOUs (the more the better) could provide a sense of
assurance to VC; An example would be many companies subscribing to a startup’s enterprise walletsolution
despite the walletsolution still developing more features
Validated bymarket
Idea validation
• We cannot simplydisregard
unproven founders,otherwise
we will be passing on too
many high quality
investment opportunities –
e.g. Vitalik Buterin had no
unfair advantages when he
started Ethereum
• However, we would require
that the startup idea
showing some tractions,
which can be proven by the
market
Convincing: Validated by consumers actually buying products/MOUs
• Occasionally,early stage pre-productstartup will have to depend on conducting customers surveys on their
alpha / beta-stage products
• However, it could be flawed.For instance,sometimes customers would state thatthey are willing to pay for a
productat x price in the survey but actually will not purchase it
• The validation will have be conducted in a robustmanner which will better reflect the potential of the startup
idea/product
Perhaps convincing: Validated by market surveys