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Top cryptosupers nov2020v2

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Crypto Super 500: Top 50 Cryptocurrency Supercomputers
November, 2020

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Top cryptosupers nov2020v2

  1. 1. @OrionX_net November 13, 2020 Stephen Perrenod, Ph.D. CryptoSuper 500 Top 50 Cryptocurrency Supercomputers
  2. 2. @OrionX_net Digital Money Store of value Safe? Unit of account Supply? Medium of exchange Stable? What is it? Money in the Internet 500 year advance in accounting (triple-entry ledger) ©2020 OrionX.net
  3. 3. @OrionX_net ª Cryptocurrencies (at least Bitcoin) represent Money 3.0 – 0.x – shells, beads – 1.0 – gold and silver coins – 2.0 – national fiat currencies – 3.0 – Decentralized digital Money stored in the Internet – Others might say they are simply digital assets ª Most of the current 7500+ coins will prove to be worthless in the long run ª Surprise: your Bitcoin is not in your hardware wallet or paper wallet. That just holds the keys. OrionX position Money 3.0 ©2020 OrionX.net
  4. 4. @OrionX_net § It’s not either/or, it’s both § They are each layers in a stack § Blockchain is the triple entry ledger of chained transaction blocks: sender wallet, blockchain, receiver wallet § A consensus algorithm (e.g. Nakamoto) that enforces security and prevents double spending is required: Mining, it also enforces a monetary policy § An incentive is required to cause the algorithm to be computed and transactions added to the chain: Cryptocurrency/Coin § Smart contracts and second layer chains extend the functionality Blockchain or Bitcoin? Gold, Fiat or Bitcoin? ©2020 OrionX.net Aristotle defined the first four attributes required for money over two millennia ago. We have added Fungibility “one is as good as another” to the table. Bitcoin is private, global money on a decentralized, highly replicated leger. Monetary Technology Advances
  5. 5. @OrionX_net Supercomputing for decentralized Money Cryptocurrency Mining ª How big is the Crypto Mining Supercomputer Market? ª Method: We estimate the annual economic value of mined crypto ª Bitcoin market cap about $300 billion (November 12, 2020; 18.5 million BTC at nearly $16,000) ª Bitcoin daily production = $14.4 million – money supply inflation ~ 1.8% was cut in half in May, 2020 – 24 hours x 6 blocks per hour x 6.25 coins x $16,000 ª Annual production run rate, Bitcoin, $5.3 billion ª Top 50 Mining Pools produce $7.9 billion annually across top 6 mined coins ª Bitcoin is some 2/3 of the market cap of some 7500 coins, it similarly dominates the Mined (Proof of Work) coin category by produced value ª Ethereum #2 daily prod’n13,292 coins x $460 = $6.1 million, $2.2 billion per annum ©2020 OrionX.net
  6. 6. @OrionX_net CryptoSuper Methodology ª We only consider Proof of Work mined coins, since they are the only ones using significant supercomputing power – Non-mined coins usually use Proof of Stake, Pre-mining (“air drop”), or other Byzantine Fault Tolerant algorithm. They either have to start with mining or air drop. – The US $ started out as Proof of Work (mining, minting) then switched to Proof of Stake (paper certificates against gold, silver) and now is an “air drop” of sorts, created by banks when new loans are made, backed by reserves at the Fed. ª The mining protocols and hash rates vary in very large degree between coins – e.g. Total Hashrate for Bitcoin is over 100 Exahash/s and for ZCash only 6 Gigahash/s (10 orders of magnitude lower) ª Most coins (Bitcoin, Ethereum) require ASICs to be profitably mined ª We compare mining pools by using the economic value of coins produced per day = number of blocks mined x number of coins per block x price per coin ©2020 OrionX.net
  7. 7. @OrionX_net Top SHA-256 Mining Rigs, Top Coins Hashrate Evolution, Bitcoin Top Host Countries Top Pool Operators Summary Tables
  8. 8. @OrionX_net ª Top 10 Crypto mining rigs for SHA- 256 (Bitcoin’s) PoW algorithm ª Terahash/sec rating is how fast they generate solution guesses to crypto puzzle, of order 100 TH/s ª It would take 1,000,000 of top-rated Antminer S19 Pro ASIC=based rigs to produce the aggregate hash power from all Bitcoin mining ª Four brands in top 10, all Chinese ª Antminer from Bitmain #1, followed by Whatsminer systems ª Gross margin estimates provided for 5 cent and 1 cent power (per kW- hour). Generally 3 cent is the cheapest power, but yes 1 cent power possible: flared natural gas access and load leveling shut-in kickbacks during electric demand peaks make this possible. ª Only electricity costs subtracted for gross margin in table, there are other operating costs and the capex for the rigs which are priced in $2K to $3K range and have < 24 month economic lives. Top Bitcoin Mining Rigs (SHA-256) ©2020 OrionX.net ª Mining Rig TH/s Watts TH/s per kW Gross Margin $/day (5 cent power) Gross Margin $/day (1 cent power) Antminer S19 Pro 110 3250 33.8 7.50 11.79 Whatsminer M30S++ 112 3250 34.5 7.44 11.96 Whatsminer M30S+ 100 3472 28.8 6.29 10.61 Antminer S19 95 3400 27.9 5.95 10.07 Whatsminer M30S 86 3250 26.5 4.99 9.04 Antminer T19 84 3150 26.7 4.93 8.84 AvalonMiner 1166 Pro 81 3400 23.8 4.32 8.44 Antminer S17+ 73 2920 25.0 4.06 7.64 Whatsminer M31S 70 3220 21.7 3.39 7.23 Antminer S17e 64 2880 22.2 3.18 6.62
  9. 9. @OrionX_net ª Bitcoin’s hashrate has grown from 0.2 Terahashes when it was 2 years old to over 100 Exahashes ª Over 8 orders of magnitude ª A BlockYear is 52,500 blocks each of about 10 minutes, and is approximately equal to a calendar year ª The Hashrate has grown as a power law of slope 10 during the past 4 years (Hashrate regressed against # Block years or blockchain length) ª This amounts to 163% compound annual growth ª Far beyond Moore’s Law, it is Doubling each 9 months Hashrate Growth for Bitcoin: Tremendous ª Block Height Block reward Block Years elapsed Date Hashrate (TeraH/s) log 10 of Hashrate log 10 of Block Year Power law, 4- year interval 315,000 25 6 2014-08-11 156,187 5.19 0.78 14.83 341,250 25 6.5 2015-01-31 296,921 5.47 0.81 18.49 367,500 25 7 2015-07-29 386,597 5.59 0.85 19.37 393,750 25 7.5 2016-01-17 766,473 5.88 0.88 17.49 420,000 12.5 8 2016-07-09 1,554,081 6.19 0.90 13.15 446,250 12.5 8.5 2017-01-02 2,420,682 6.38 0.93 9.35 472,500 12.5 9 2017-06-23 5,145,068 6.71 0.95 8.46 498,750 12.5 9.5 2017-12-11 12,845,067 7.11 0.98 9.90 525,000 12.5 10 2018-05-29 33,710,000 7.53 1.00 12.10 551,250 12.5 10.5 2018-11-24 41,483,900 7.62 1.02 12.59 577,500 12.5 11 2019-05-24 52,657,000 7.72 1.04 12.26 603,750 12.5 11.5 2019-11-14 89,789,000 7.95 1.06 11.92 630,000 6.25 12 2020-05-11 121,040,00 0 8.08 1.08 11.19 654,875 6.25 12.47 2020-10-27 114,815,50 0 8.06 1.096 10.26 Last 4 years HR ratio 47.73 R^2 0.94 slope 10.26 CAGR 163%
  10. 10. @OrionX_net ª These are the top 6 coins mined with Proof of Work, by market cap ª Only mined coins use supercomputer class computational power ª All Snapshots on hashing rates, block production, were taken as of 10/31/20 ª Hash rates for Bitcoin, Ethereum: we used average monthly totals, for others the recent weekly hash rate ª Note the extreme variation in Hashing rates with Bitcoin ~ 100 Exa and Zcash at under 10 Giga Top Six Mined Coins (10/31/20 snapshot) ©2020 OrionX.net ª Coin HW Algorithm Block time Block subsidy New coins / day Hash rate units Bitcoin ASIC SHA256 10 min. 6.25 900 114.5 Exa Ethereum ASIC Ethash 13 sec. 2 13292 190.7 Tera Bitcoin Cash ASIC SHA256 10 min. 6.25 900 2.63 Exa LTC ASIC Scrypt 2.5 min. 12.5 7200 259.0 Tera Bitcoin SV ASIC SHA256 10 min. 6.25 900 1.80 Exa Zcash ASIC Equihash 1.25 min. 6.25 5760 6.49 Giga
  11. 11. @OrionX_net ª These eight coins had mining pools in the top 50 ª $9.1 billion of annual economic value produced (up from $7.4 billion in November, 2019) ª 62% of all AEV (annual economic value) for mined coins is in Bitcoin ª 33% is in Ethereum, and the remaining 5% spread across four others Top Six Coins for Mining Pools ©2020 OrionX.net ª Coin Top 50 Pools: M$ per year M$ per year for All Production Percent of Annual Economic Value Bitcoin 4784 5621 61.8 Ethereum 2833 3031 33.3 Litecoin 114 160 1.8 Zcash 116 151 1.7 Bitcoin Cash 40 83 0.9 Bitcoin SV 19 52 0.6 Total 7906 9098 100
  12. 12. @OrionX_net ª We ranked the top 50 pools for each of the six top coins ª Pools are in fact multinational since anyone can contribute compute power to any pool ª This is a list by host country ranking for AEV, some are Mixed ª Global includes US, China, and Europe within the same pool ª We then interleaved the list to get the top pools by $ value of production ª China has 40% of the Top 50 pool AEV, Global 34%, Hong Kong, US each 9% Top Host Countries ©2020 OrionX.net ª Host Country Number of Top Pools Percent of AEV Annualized M$ China 19 39.6 3139 Global 13 34.0 2683 Hong Kong 4 9.1 715 US 2 9.3 721 Europe 2 1.9 152 Other, N/A 10 6.0 498 Totals 50 100 7908
  13. 13. @OrionX_net ª Often the same pool is mining multiple coins ª We aggregate the coins mined under a particular operator ª We also list the host country ª These are the Top 10, responsible for ~ 81% of the Top 50 annual economic value creation ª China has 5, US 1, Hong Kong 1, others global or mixed Top Pool Operators ©2020 OrionX.net ª Pool Operator Host Country Number of Top Pools Annualized M$ F2Pool Global 4 1058 SparkPool China 1 840 Poolin US, China 3 736 BTCdotcom Global 2 683 Ethermine US 1 654 AntPool China 3 514 HuobiPool China 1 484 ViaBTC Hong Kong 4 374 BinancePool China 1 333 58Coin&1THash China 1 298 Totals 21 5974
  14. 14. @OrionX_net Top 50 Crypto Super List, by Coin
  15. 15. @OrionX_net Top Bitcoin Mining Pools: Pool, Monthly and Annualized revenue (M$), Host country ©2020 OrionX.net
  16. 16. @OrionX_net Top Ethereum Mining Pools: Pool, Monthly and Annualized revenue (M$), Host country ©2020 OrionX.net
  17. 17. @OrionX_net Top Litecoin Mining Pools: Pool, Coin Monthly and Annualized revenue (M$), Host country ©2020 OrionX.net
  18. 18. @OrionX_net Top Zcash, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Mining Pools: Pool, Coin Monthly and Annualized revenue (M$), Host country ©2020 OrionX.net
  19. 19. @OrionX_net November 13, 2020 Stephen Perrenod OrionX.net/blog Thank you!
  20. 20. @OrionX_net References ª Overall: coinmarketcap.com, coinwarz.com, cryptoslate.com ª BTC: btc.com, blockchain.com ª ETH: btc.com, etherscan.io ª BCH: btc.com, cash.coin.dance ª Others: miningpoolstats.stream ª Cryptocurrency topics: orionx.net/blog ª Top Cryptocurrency Supercomputers June 2020, (slide presentation link) ª The Brutal Efficiency of Crypto Mining, https://medium.com/the-capital/the-brutal- efficiency-of-crypto-mining-far-beyond-moores-law-92fa90e617e0 ª Article comparing future supply model and stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin market cap and price projections https://medium.com/the-capital/the-future-supply-model- era-4-ca3e9591d871

Crypto Super 500: Top 50 Cryptocurrency Supercomputers November, 2020

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