Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
Blog – What is next for the Mining Sector – September 2023
The mining sector provides critical material that support solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries as part of the green transition. https://www.iea.org/news/critical-minerals-market-sees-unprecedented-growth-as-clean-energy-demand-drives-strong-increase-in-investment
The mining sector products play a key role with the global GDP - https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/global-mining-industry-value-was-69-of-world-gdp-last-year-china-says
Mining practices need to be sustainable including following all ESG policies - https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-monitor-sustainable-mining-practices
Other links and sources –
Lithium Supply and Price - https://zbr.com.mx/en/sin-categoria-es/lithium-prices-fall-44-in-china-due-to-lack-of-demand/138168/
Cobalt - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mahmut-karada%C5%9F-a2b7a5151_china-exportrestrictions-gallium-activity-7082603182589157376-Zrty/?trk=public_profile_like_view
Nickel https://www.eureporter.co/business/2023/09/15/stanislav-kondrashov-from-telf-ag-nickel-prices-outlook-remains-positive/
Iron-ore - https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263584/sgx-iron-ore-set-for-best-week-in-3-months
TD Bank / Metals - https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/setting-the-stage-for-gold-outlook
Biodiversity / Mining - https://worldcrunch.com/green/lithium-green-energy-argentina-indigenous
ESG - https://iriscarbon.com/the-added-value-of-integrated-esg-reporting-a-threefold-framework/
Blog – Manufacturing Shipments and Orders – The United States – August 2023
Summary:
New orders for manufacturing technology in the United States totaled $353.9 million in July 2023, as per the latest report by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This figure marked a 12.4% decline from June 2023 but remained only 10.5% lower than July 2022. Year-to-date orders amounted to $2.83 billion, reflecting a 12.7% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Douglas K. Woods, President of AMT, noted that July is typically a slower month for manufacturing technology orders, so a slight drop was expected. However, he pointed out a notable trend: over the last two months, the year-to-date order gap has narrowed during historically slow periods. While job shops have seen decreased orders, other industries that benefited from reshoring or government investments have helped fill the gap.
Among specific sectors, job shops, the largest customer segment, placed their lowest total monthly orders since August 2020. In contrast, metal valve manufacturers recorded their third-highest monthly order value on record, last seen in September 2018, making up nearly 5% of the total manufacturing technology order value for July 2023. Manufacturers of motor vehicle transmissions continued to order machinery at an elevated pace. However, the aerospace industry continued to order below its early 2022 peaks, with hopes that recent projects like the federal government's $1.5 billion investment in communications satellites might reverse this trend.
Source: https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/september/u.s.-manufacturing-technology-orders-dip-in-july-but-show-resilience-amid-economic-uncertainty
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 15 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Stock Market – WE September 15 2023
Summary:
Stocks fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 288.87 points to close out Friday and the week at 34,618.24. At its lows, it completely wiped out Thursday's 332-point rally.
The S&P 500 index sank 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to 4,450.32.
The NASDAQ index plunged 217.72 points, or 1.6%, to 13,708.33.
The Dow held onto a winning week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed out the week with losses.
Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% even after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower one day after its successful public debut.
Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. were higher Friday, while Ford Motor was about flat. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night.
Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 3%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
On the economic front, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in
September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
Electricity Analysis - Canada and the OECD - June 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%.
Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan.
However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered.
In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%.
The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.”
With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/
Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
Blog – What is next for the Mining Sector – September 2023
The mining sector provides critical material that support solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries as part of the green transition. https://www.iea.org/news/critical-minerals-market-sees-unprecedented-growth-as-clean-energy-demand-drives-strong-increase-in-investment
The mining sector products play a key role with the global GDP - https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/global-mining-industry-value-was-69-of-world-gdp-last-year-china-says
Mining practices need to be sustainable including following all ESG policies - https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-monitor-sustainable-mining-practices
Other links and sources –
Lithium Supply and Price - https://zbr.com.mx/en/sin-categoria-es/lithium-prices-fall-44-in-china-due-to-lack-of-demand/138168/
Cobalt - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mahmut-karada%C5%9F-a2b7a5151_china-exportrestrictions-gallium-activity-7082603182589157376-Zrty/?trk=public_profile_like_view
Nickel https://www.eureporter.co/business/2023/09/15/stanislav-kondrashov-from-telf-ag-nickel-prices-outlook-remains-positive/
Iron-ore - https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263584/sgx-iron-ore-set-for-best-week-in-3-months
TD Bank / Metals - https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/setting-the-stage-for-gold-outlook
Biodiversity / Mining - https://worldcrunch.com/green/lithium-green-energy-argentina-indigenous
ESG - https://iriscarbon.com/the-added-value-of-integrated-esg-reporting-a-threefold-framework/
Blog – Manufacturing Shipments and Orders – The United States – August 2023
Summary:
New orders for manufacturing technology in the United States totaled $353.9 million in July 2023, as per the latest report by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This figure marked a 12.4% decline from June 2023 but remained only 10.5% lower than July 2022. Year-to-date orders amounted to $2.83 billion, reflecting a 12.7% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Douglas K. Woods, President of AMT, noted that July is typically a slower month for manufacturing technology orders, so a slight drop was expected. However, he pointed out a notable trend: over the last two months, the year-to-date order gap has narrowed during historically slow periods. While job shops have seen decreased orders, other industries that benefited from reshoring or government investments have helped fill the gap.
Among specific sectors, job shops, the largest customer segment, placed their lowest total monthly orders since August 2020. In contrast, metal valve manufacturers recorded their third-highest monthly order value on record, last seen in September 2018, making up nearly 5% of the total manufacturing technology order value for July 2023. Manufacturers of motor vehicle transmissions continued to order machinery at an elevated pace. However, the aerospace industry continued to order below its early 2022 peaks, with hopes that recent projects like the federal government's $1.5 billion investment in communications satellites might reverse this trend.
Source: https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/september/u.s.-manufacturing-technology-orders-dip-in-july-but-show-resilience-amid-economic-uncertainty
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 15 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Stock Market – WE September 15 2023
Summary:
Stocks fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 288.87 points to close out Friday and the week at 34,618.24. At its lows, it completely wiped out Thursday's 332-point rally.
The S&P 500 index sank 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to 4,450.32.
The NASDAQ index plunged 217.72 points, or 1.6%, to 13,708.33.
The Dow held onto a winning week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed out the week with losses.
Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% even after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower one day after its successful public debut.
Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. were higher Friday, while Ford Motor was about flat. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night.
Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 3%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
On the economic front, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in
September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
Electricity Analysis - Canada and the OECD - June 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%.
Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan.
However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered.
In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%.
The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.”
With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 9 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
What did the markets tell us this week?
1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world.
2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets.
3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies.
4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns.
5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia.
6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc
7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues.
8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing
9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain.
10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector.
11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.
Global (Mining Oil and Gas Forestry and Agriculture) Analysis and Commentary ...paul young cpa, cga
The mining, oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, and mining continue to face environmental, social, and governance policy review including reporting of key metrics as part of ESG reporting cycle.
There is more focus on profitability and investment returns as part of the integrated planning and reporting cycle.
Summary:
The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift.
China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter.
Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn.
Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2
Additional sources and links:
Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries
Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html
Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956
Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply
Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/
Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/
ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules
Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/
Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/
Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html
What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
Construction Spending and Outlook - The USA and the World - August 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Construction Sector Analysis and Commentary – August 2023
Summary:
The outlook for US construction of affordable housing is set to change dramatically over the next two years. "Developers see a massive shortage ahead, which threatens to undo the recent progress in closing the daunting affordable housing gap in many US cities," reports Bloomberg.
While interest rates have been increasing, the number of housing projects starting this year has been cut significantly. 2022 projects will typically come online after 18-24 months, therefore construction companies are expecting a severe supply shortage by mid-2025.
This slowdown is supported by statistics from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) which received 506 applications as of May, eight months into fiscal year 2023, totalling US$12bn in Federal Housing Administration loans to construct multi-family developments. This is about half the volume of the same eight-month period in FY22 (940 applications for US$22bn) and less than one-third of the volume for the same stretch in FY21 (1739 applications for US$37bn).
The higher costs associated with inflation and rising interest rates are creating financial gaps making it hard for developers to complete below-market rental projects, resulting in significant delays, says Bloomberg.
Single-family construction starts slipped after a four-month run, down seven per cent in June, while applications for permits rose 2.2 per cent from May, according to the Census Bureau and HUD.
Source - https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/175467/us-construction-outlook-is-about-to-change-for-crh-and-others.html
Other links and sources
1. Biodiversity / Construction - https://coastcommunitynews.com.au/central-coast/news/2023/08/biodiversity-overhaul-could-pave-the-way-for-more-housing-construction/
2. CO2 embodying - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/algomaco_california-becomes-first-state-to-adopt-mandatory-activity-7095045267430809600-y2pV/
3. Green Cement - https://environmentjournal.ca/lafarge-canada-pilots-cleantech-project-to-support-sustainable-cement-production/
4. Building codes - https://www.buildinggreen.com/newsbrief/marin-county-first-adopt-low-carbon-concrete-code
5. Energy - https://www.armstrongceilings.com/commercial/en/performance/sustainable-building-design/embodied-carbon-in-buildings.html
6. Climate Change Risks - https://urbanland.uli.org/public/climate-risk-is-financial-risk-the-ever-evolving-landscape-of-climate-related-financial-disclosures/
7. Net Zero - https://www.esmagazine.com/articles/103351-the-path-to-net-zero-buildings-3-steps-to-turn-sustainability-ambition-into-action
8. Ports / Clean - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ports-in-europe-lure-investors-into-clean-energy-gateway-plan-1.1966430
9. Broadband spending - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/broadcom-gives-downbeat-forecast-signaling-221519671.html
10. Construction materials - https://www.marketplace.org/2023/09/01/climate-change-is-making-home-construction-more-expe
Blog – What is next for the Global GDP – August 2023
The global economy is showing signs of improvement but remains fragile. Global GDP growth in 2023 is projected at 2.6%, the lowest annual rate since the global financial crisis, with the exception of the 2020 pandemic period. A modest improvement to 2.9% is foreseen for 2024.
There has been some respite: lower energy prices are helping to bring down headline inflation, and the earlier-than-expected reopening of China has provided a boost to global activity. However, the impact of higher interest rates is increasingly being felt across the economy.
High inflation and slow wage growth pushed real wages down in 2022, but these are projected to stop declining in most OECD countries over the course of 2023.
With these falls in real wages and a still tight labour market, nominal wage growth is projected to be just over 4% in the overall OECD area in 2023, before moderating to around 3.5% in 2024.
https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/themes/global-economy
Additional sources and links:
Oil Production - https://globalnews.ca/news/9932960/oil-and-gas-sector-says-new-data-shows-it-can-both-hike-output-and-lower-emissions/ or https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-idAFL1N3AD027
LNG / Natural Gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-price-analysis-xng-usd-grinds-at-multi-day-top-focus-on-305-and-us-employment-data-202309010216
Lithium - https://agmetalminer.com/2023/08/31/lithium-battery-market-volatility/
Technology - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-tech-stocks-sector-221421282.html
Base metals - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/base-metals-trade-mixed-with-chinese-and-us-economy-in-focus-1.1965922
Lumber - https://www.netnewsledger.com/2023/08/29/the-future-of-lumber-prices-in-canada-a-look-ahead/
EV - https://www.motor.com/2023/08/warning-signs-on-the-path-to-mass-ev-adoption/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=warning-signs-on-the-path-to-mass-ev-adoption
Supply Chain - https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-august-sp-global-pmi-480-vs-496-prior-20230901/ or https://www.automation.com/en-us/articles/august-2023/strategies-strengthening-supply-chains-2023
Food supply and prices - https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/OXAN-DB281606/full/html
Productivity - https://www.reuters.com/business/post-pandemic-world-facing-gloomy-stew-debt-trade-wars-poor-productivity-2023-08-28/
Innovation – https://digileaders.com/the-crucial-role-of-an-innovation-strategy/
Capital Spending - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/japan-firms-cut-capital-spending-for-first-time-in-over-year-1.1965955
Blog – Durable Goods and Capital Spending Analysis – August 2023 - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_durable-goods-orders-tumble-why-its-not-activity-7100500285860573185-3emi?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 9 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
What did the markets tell us this week?
1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world.
2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets.
3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies.
4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns.
5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia.
6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc
7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues.
8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing
9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain.
10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector.
11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.
Global (Mining Oil and Gas Forestry and Agriculture) Analysis and Commentary ...paul young cpa, cga
The mining, oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, and mining continue to face environmental, social, and governance policy review including reporting of key metrics as part of ESG reporting cycle.
There is more focus on profitability and investment returns as part of the integrated planning and reporting cycle.
Summary:
The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift.
China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter.
Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn.
Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2
Additional sources and links:
Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries
Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html
Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956
Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply
Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/
Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/
ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules
Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/
Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/
Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html
What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
Construction Spending and Outlook - The USA and the World - August 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Construction Sector Analysis and Commentary – August 2023
Summary:
The outlook for US construction of affordable housing is set to change dramatically over the next two years. "Developers see a massive shortage ahead, which threatens to undo the recent progress in closing the daunting affordable housing gap in many US cities," reports Bloomberg.
While interest rates have been increasing, the number of housing projects starting this year has been cut significantly. 2022 projects will typically come online after 18-24 months, therefore construction companies are expecting a severe supply shortage by mid-2025.
This slowdown is supported by statistics from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) which received 506 applications as of May, eight months into fiscal year 2023, totalling US$12bn in Federal Housing Administration loans to construct multi-family developments. This is about half the volume of the same eight-month period in FY22 (940 applications for US$22bn) and less than one-third of the volume for the same stretch in FY21 (1739 applications for US$37bn).
The higher costs associated with inflation and rising interest rates are creating financial gaps making it hard for developers to complete below-market rental projects, resulting in significant delays, says Bloomberg.
Single-family construction starts slipped after a four-month run, down seven per cent in June, while applications for permits rose 2.2 per cent from May, according to the Census Bureau and HUD.
Source - https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/175467/us-construction-outlook-is-about-to-change-for-crh-and-others.html
Other links and sources
1. Biodiversity / Construction - https://coastcommunitynews.com.au/central-coast/news/2023/08/biodiversity-overhaul-could-pave-the-way-for-more-housing-construction/
2. CO2 embodying - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/algomaco_california-becomes-first-state-to-adopt-mandatory-activity-7095045267430809600-y2pV/
3. Green Cement - https://environmentjournal.ca/lafarge-canada-pilots-cleantech-project-to-support-sustainable-cement-production/
4. Building codes - https://www.buildinggreen.com/newsbrief/marin-county-first-adopt-low-carbon-concrete-code
5. Energy - https://www.armstrongceilings.com/commercial/en/performance/sustainable-building-design/embodied-carbon-in-buildings.html
6. Climate Change Risks - https://urbanland.uli.org/public/climate-risk-is-financial-risk-the-ever-evolving-landscape-of-climate-related-financial-disclosures/
7. Net Zero - https://www.esmagazine.com/articles/103351-the-path-to-net-zero-buildings-3-steps-to-turn-sustainability-ambition-into-action
8. Ports / Clean - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ports-in-europe-lure-investors-into-clean-energy-gateway-plan-1.1966430
9. Broadband spending - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/broadcom-gives-downbeat-forecast-signaling-221519671.html
10. Construction materials - https://www.marketplace.org/2023/09/01/climate-change-is-making-home-construction-more-expe
Blog – What is next for the Global GDP – August 2023
The global economy is showing signs of improvement but remains fragile. Global GDP growth in 2023 is projected at 2.6%, the lowest annual rate since the global financial crisis, with the exception of the 2020 pandemic period. A modest improvement to 2.9% is foreseen for 2024.
There has been some respite: lower energy prices are helping to bring down headline inflation, and the earlier-than-expected reopening of China has provided a boost to global activity. However, the impact of higher interest rates is increasingly being felt across the economy.
High inflation and slow wage growth pushed real wages down in 2022, but these are projected to stop declining in most OECD countries over the course of 2023.
With these falls in real wages and a still tight labour market, nominal wage growth is projected to be just over 4% in the overall OECD area in 2023, before moderating to around 3.5% in 2024.
https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/themes/global-economy
Additional sources and links:
Oil Production - https://globalnews.ca/news/9932960/oil-and-gas-sector-says-new-data-shows-it-can-both-hike-output-and-lower-emissions/ or https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-idAFL1N3AD027
LNG / Natural Gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-price-analysis-xng-usd-grinds-at-multi-day-top-focus-on-305-and-us-employment-data-202309010216
Lithium - https://agmetalminer.com/2023/08/31/lithium-battery-market-volatility/
Technology - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-tech-stocks-sector-221421282.html
Base metals - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/base-metals-trade-mixed-with-chinese-and-us-economy-in-focus-1.1965922
Lumber - https://www.netnewsledger.com/2023/08/29/the-future-of-lumber-prices-in-canada-a-look-ahead/
EV - https://www.motor.com/2023/08/warning-signs-on-the-path-to-mass-ev-adoption/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=warning-signs-on-the-path-to-mass-ev-adoption
Supply Chain - https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-august-sp-global-pmi-480-vs-496-prior-20230901/ or https://www.automation.com/en-us/articles/august-2023/strategies-strengthening-supply-chains-2023
Food supply and prices - https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/OXAN-DB281606/full/html
Productivity - https://www.reuters.com/business/post-pandemic-world-facing-gloomy-stew-debt-trade-wars-poor-productivity-2023-08-28/
Innovation – https://digileaders.com/the-crucial-role-of-an-innovation-strategy/
Capital Spending - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/japan-firms-cut-capital-spending-for-first-time-in-over-year-1.1965955
Blog – Durable Goods and Capital Spending Analysis – August 2023 - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_durable-goods-orders-tumble-why-its-not-activity-7100500285860573185-3emi?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the what's app number of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
+12349014282
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the what'sapp contact of my personal pi vendor
+12349014282
Understanding how timely GST payments influence a lender's decision to approve loans, this topic explores the correlation between GST compliance and creditworthiness. It highlights how consistent GST payments can enhance a business's financial credibility, potentially leading to higher chances of loan approval.
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the what'sapp contact of my personal vendor.
+12349014282
#pi network #pi coins #legit #passive income
#US
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the what'sapp contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
+12349014282
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just what'sapp this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
+12349014282
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the what'sapp information for my personal pi vendor.
+12349014282
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfcoingabbar
Introducing BONKMILLON - The Most Bonkers Meme Coin Yet
Let's be real for a second – the world of meme coins can feel like a bit of a circus at times. Every other day, there's a new token promising to take you "to the moon" or offering some groundbreaking utility that'll change the game forever. But how many of them actually deliver on that hype?
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdf
How to address issues facing getting Goods to Market
1. • Paul Young CPA CGA
• July 17, 2020
GOODS TO
MARKET –
WHAT NEEDS
TO BE DONE
2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com
3. AGENDA
Goods to Market – Natural Resources
Mining – Non-Fuel
GDP per capita
Environmental Ranking
Blog – Regulations – Environment
Pipelines vs rail and container transporting
Blog – Natural Resources
Blog – LNG
Blog – Manufacturing
Blog – Oil and Gas
WTO
China
Competitiveness
Goods to Market – Natural Resources
Mining – Non-Fuel
GDP per capita
Environmental Ranking
Blog – Regulations – Environment
Pipelines vs rail and container transporting
Blog – Natural Resources
Blog – LNG
Blog – Manufacturing
Blog – Oil and Gas
Blog – Forestry Management
WTO
China
Competitiveness
4. Introduction
• This presentation looks at goods to market including manufacturing,
natural resources, energy and agriculture sector
5. Goods to Market Natural Resources
Source - https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS/rankings
10. GDP per capita
• Source - https://photius.com/rankings/2020/economy/gdp_per_capita_2020_0.html
11. Environmental Ranking
Source - https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/canadas-environmental-ranking-really-sucks-
according-to-new-study or
12. Environmental Assessment – Zero Emissions
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/environment-and-safety/major-new-pipelines-and-mines-must-show-path-to-net-
zero-to-get-approved-257376/
• Extraction will require electrical base vehicles -
https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-can-clean-up-
the-mining-industry-heres-how-115369
• Tailing ponds will need to be cleaned up -
https://www.folio.ca/new-technique-could-help-
decontaminate-oilsands-waste-water/ or
https://www.metso.com/blog/mining/how-to-generate-
value-from-tailings-with-reprocessing-to-be-future-ready/
• Tankers will need to move to cleaner fuels, i.e. natural gas
or electrical or nuclear
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shipping-imo-
enforcement/new-clean-shipping-fuel-rules-but-who-
polices-the-polluters-idUSKBN1YN1UD
• Forestry management – planting of trees and land
reclamation after mining is completed -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-
for-the-forestry-sector or
https://sustainability.suncor.com/en/environment/land-
and-reclamation
13. Transportation of fuel
We need to focus on getting natural resources to market in the most
environmental and economically way.
• Cargo ships – CO2 - https://phys.org/news/2018-12-cargo-ships-emitting-boatloads-
carbon.html
• Pipelines and emissions - https://www.canadaaction.ca/greenhouse-gas-emissions-
pipelines-canada
• Rail and oil - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-rail-transportation-
shipments-and-safety
• Environment - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-emissions-and-the-
environment
• Transportation systems will continue to evolved with less dependent on fuels like diesel
• Government needs to prioritized the investment into infrastructure that supports getting goods to market -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-infrastructure-analysis-of-policy
• Supply chain management policies need to change. All levels of government need to support the most efficient and
sustainable way to get goods to market - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-reshore-supply-chains or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-port-analysis-and-commentary-supply-chain-management
14. Blog – Natural Resources
Farmers
• The economic squeeze on U.S. producers is tightening after six years of decline in U.S. farm profits, which fell last year to
$69.4 billion, half of the $136.1 billion in 2013. Prices of key commodities such as corn and soybeans have declined
while the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has cut into migrant labor. Midwestern states were hit with
historic floods this spring.
• The trade war struck another blow, as key importers of U.S. agricultural products such as China, Canada and Mexico
have retaliated against Trump’s tariffs with duties targeting American farmers.
Source - https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/22027512/farm-equipment-purchases-plummet-as-trade-
war-hits-rural-america and USA is focusing on more fair-trade deals - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-ranking-
the-goods-most-traded-between-the-us-and-china/ or https://www.dorsey.com/newsresources/publications/client-
alerts/2019/12/year-end-trade-deals
@JustinTrudeau relies on @gmbutts to define economic policies. The problem is Butts and his advisers have zero interest
in the maximization of both the AG and Natural Resources Sector https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
needs-to-development-natural-resources-and-agricultural-strategy and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-
next-for-farming-in-canada-analysis-of-economic-and-government-policies
15. Blog - LNG
@SeamusORegan
• New LNG Project -
https://canadianmanufacturing.com/operations/cryopeak-lng-solutions-
breaks-ground-on-new-lng-production-facility-250365/ LNG / Inuvik -
https://pipelinenewsnorth.ca/cryopeak-lng-completes-delivery-of-lng-
to-northwest-territories-1.24166319. North uses diesel power Source -
https://slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-natural-gas-
analysis-of-policy-canada Why is your govt not doing more to support
LNG/Natural Gas?
@ElizabethMay not word from you on the ship LNG to Inuvik, why?
16. Manufacturing
Canada needs to re-focus on manufacturing including policies that will support
local manufacturing
• Advance manufacturing – more and more companies will be using technology like 3-D
printing, robots and other automation tools -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/technology-what-needs-to-happen-for-
canada-and-the-world
• All levels of governments should be promoting Canada based products over importing
products - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-steel-sector-may-2020
• More emphasis on the skill trades in areas like automation, welding, plumbing, electrical
and other trades - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-are-skills-required-
to-have-a-successful-career
• Revamping regulations and taxes to better support startups -
https://www.canadianbusiness.com/lists-and-rankings/growth-500/2019-ranking-g500/
• Canada post-COVID19 needs to ensure manufacturing continues to prosper in Canada -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-and-economic-analysis-justin-
trudeau-liberal-government-of-canada-april-2020-and-may-2020
17. Blog – Oil and Gas
• “In Canada, $16 billion has been put down to support the oil and gas industries, compared with $300 million for clean
energy” - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/environment-and-safety/aid-for-energy-heavily-weighted-towards-
fossil-fuels-in-covid-19-response-257268/
• Clean Technology needs to be viable! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-clean-technolgy-and-the-
green-economy
• Oil plays a key role in areas like plastic, roads, roofing, etc. Oil needs to be treated as a strategic product -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-going-on-with-oil
@cathmckenna @Greenpeace @DavidSuzukiFDN @MikeSchreiner
• Nearly 83% of Canada's power generation comes from clean sources
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electricty-the-grid-whats-next-for-co2-emissions
• There needs to be more balanced between the environment and the economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/clean-technology-the-green-economy
18. Forestry Management
• Wood, Pulp and paper still play a key role with the world economy
• There are many issues facing forestry management
• Deforestation
• Poor forest management practices
• Disease
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-the-forestry-sector
19. WTO - Reforms
• @jimcarr_wpg are you pushing to reform the WTO or are you just going to
appoint people that support the current WTO agenda?
• https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/exporting-and-importing/canada-ok-with-
eu-plan-to-help-wto-deal-with-trump-disruption-carr-233803/ or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-protection-and-subsidies-analysis-
and-commentary
• @KamalaHarris @AOC @JoeBiden @SpeakerPelosi @Ilhan
• How come nothing is mentioned about reforming WTO? The democrats in 2001
pushed for China to join the WTO https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/china-
whats-next-236622252
20. Competitiveness
July 15, 2020
• “The central bank sees a long, slow recovery and will keep its quantitative easing programs in place until that recovery is “well under way,” Bank
of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters after the decision.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-cenbank/bank-of-canada-sees-
economy-below-pre-covid-levels-until-2022-with-rates-remaining-low-idUSKCN24G204
Canada has struggle with being competitive in terms of attracting FDI - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/dip-in-foreign-investment-into-canada-
masks-best-year-since-oil-shock-1.1354805 . Canada needs to fix policies that will enable it to be more competitive -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/business-competitiveness-canada
Here are examples of poorly constructed policies
• Poorly constructed small business tax reforms
• Implementation of a carbon taxation
• Excessive regulations when it comes to Natural Resources, AG sector, and other sectors
There are concerns that goods producing sector will face the same pressure during the 1980-1983 recession:
• High unemployment - https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/unemployment-reaches-all-time-high-in-1982
• Interest rates where high in 1980 - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/remember-when-what-have-we-learned-from-80s-interest-
rates/article24398735/. Rates likely will slowly rise. The bigger issue is the size of debt now held by Canadians as well as others around the world -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-consumer-government-and-corporate-debt-crisis
• Job quality has to be address as part of supporting income growth - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/search_my_uploads?type=&new=&q=job+qual
• Govt debt and deficits are becoming an enormous issues - https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/size-of-government-in-canada/ or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reform-local-and-municipal-government
21. China exports to North America
• China is seeing economic growth compare to countries around the world the continue to show a GDP decline for 2020 -
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/china-again-boosts-rd-spending-more-10 or
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-30/Global-CFOs-more-positive-about-China-s-economic-outlook-Survey-
TnGNxwgJMc/index.html
• China continues to play a big role with the global economy and geopolitical events -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-happening-with-china
22. What’s next
• There needs to be better balanced between the environment and the economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/climate-change-and-the-environment-how-do-we-resolve
• Government need to refocus on reforming their regulation and taxes as part of making their countries more
competitive - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/designing-social-programs-and-tax-fairness-policies
• Emphasis by all countries should be focus on how best to managed their own supply chains -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-reshore-supply-chains
• Reforming global institutions like UN, WTO, WHO and other agencies -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/reforming-both-the-united-nations-and-who
• All governments need to start moving their policies to center -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/failures-of-socialism-234913308
• Education needs to re-think its programs as part of preparing people for the jobs of today and tomorrow -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/human-capital-management-skills-and-education
• Redefining social, tax, environmental, and economic policies - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-
next-for-the-global-economy-august-2020
• Fixing the job quality issues - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/average-wages-and-job-quality-canada
23. Training and Development
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning and
development then feel
free to review my
material on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies