The future of food.

The future of food
Oleg Moskalev
During the research called: “Why people waste food?”, it
was found that waste is the least of our problems...
“...we do not have road maps, we even do not
know if there are some roads, all what we
know is "this" cannot be reached by applying
yesterday’s standards”.
David Weinberger
Ver. 3 June 2018

Archaic food
marketing system
Overproduction,
overstocking,
over processing
overuse of additives
Consumers:
low quality of
decision
making,
poor planning
Producer- or
retailer-
centric system
Lots of waste,
low quality of
food and life,
over spending,
overeating, etc.
Inefficiency
Present state
moskalevoleg@yahoo.co.uk

Causes of food waste
Causes and solutions
of food waste
Size
32 / 34
Taste
14 / 4
Overstocking
13 / 15
Time
8 / 17
Storage
conditions
15 / 8
Quality
15 / 10
Planning
16
In Red causes
In Green solutions
Own research.

The main waster is the food
industry. On this level, waste is a
predefined process. The major
methods of food preparation are
harmful to the nutritious
elements. Most processed food
does not provide the maximum
vitamins, minerals and other
nutritious elements, and most of it
is over-processed and overcooked,
and the nutritious elements are
either destroyed or different from
the original food; it often changes
its chemical structure and this food
is impossible to assimilate.

Attention to detail during the cooking process
Based on the New Scientist article,
“Not all calories are created equal”, 18th July 2009
Waste
Waste
Conventional degree of Time/Temp./Chem. influence
%
“Golden frame of consumption”

Labelling
Endless conversations
about product
labelling form a
sophisticated
discussion around a
simple solution: no
wasteful visual
information is
needed, but all of the
required information
could be easily
scanned from the
product.

All of the information about
transparency and the traceability of
ingredients has been lost on the shop
shelves or even earlier, and people
cannot give 100% of their capacity to
analysing all of the ingredients of the
food that they are buying or planning to
consume.

Labour cost 1.5p.
Production cost 10.5p.
Taxable profit 1 p.
Cayman Islands.
Use of purchasing network 8 p.
Tax free.
Luxembourg
Financial services
8 p.
Tax free.
Ireland
Brand 4 p.
Corp. tax 12.5%
Isle of Man
Insurance 4 p.
Corp. tax 10%
Jersey
Overall
management,
legal service 6 p.
Corp. tax 10%
Bermuda.
Distribution, expert network 17 p.
Tax free.
13 p.
47 p.
£1
40 p.
Mark-on
Retail price
Revealed: how multinational companies avoid the taxman,
Felicity Lawrence and Ian Griffiths, The Guardian, Tuesday 6 November 2007
Price transparency.

Popular magazines, TV shows, and
cookbooks are the main information
providers that usually demonstrate
food which is suitable for everyone.
All such efforts to educate people
about food cannot be accepted as
reliable, and the question of the
credibility of the sources of
information is highly important.
The well-known philosopher, Paul
Feyerabend, claimed that science is
an instrument of power, and needs
to be concerned about "the
chauvinism of special groups"
(Feyerabend, 1999).

The existence of
the consumers’ irrationality about
food
is the biggest lie ever.
There is no such thing as irrational consumer
behaviour within the food market. What we
can see is the massive confusion caused by
the shortage of information to support
qualified decision making.
For non-food products, the importance of
accuracy in decision-making is less relevant.

Hierarchy of food-related decision making.
The insight that “everything matters” is one of the most important thoughts about the architecture of choice making.
Presentation
Taste
Nutritional
value
Harm free
Price
Quality
Availa
bility
N
O
W
Perfectly
fitted
size
N
e
e
d
t
o
b
e
Low
carbon
footprint
Non
distractively
cooked

Doctors spend lots of time on
patching up the problems caused in
90% of cases by poor food
consumption.
(Examination of diabetes causes by Institute of Nutrition from the Academy of Medical Sciences, Russia)
People consume more food than
they need. Regular overeating is a
major problem in modern society,
and, by the way, this food is wasted
too.

An individualized diet is only available to
people who can afford a special adviser,
ill people, who have professional care,
and for a limited number of enthusiasts.
27% of households have at least one
member who needs a special diet, and
only 6.5% have this kind of qualified
support.
Own research

The major problem is that humankind
has a huge amount of knowledge about
food, its methods of preparation,
recipes, how to store products correctly,
and how to combine and to consume
food in the right way, but suddenly we
understand that this knowledge is not in
use.

People in modern society have lost their ability
to be careful or qualified consumers; the
decision-making process is burdened by
numerous uncertainties, and there are no
significant shifts into something better within
the frames of the current system.
The beginning of a new era of food
consumption has come, and the whole food
marketing system should be ready for the
changes which are inevitably coming.

S-curve of a new system
development.
Adapted from Attacker's Advantage, R. Foster, 1986.
If we consider waste problem not as a
stand-alone element of the system,
but as an important element of
society’s progressive development, we
can see a bigger problem, which is
hidden behind the waste – the
inefficiency of the existing technology
curve – particularly of the food
marketing system, or generally the
modern economy.
The main weaknesses of the current
system are: the archaic and industrial
nature of it, which is driven by income
and cost reduction, and - as a result -
chronic overproduction. It never was
and never will be able to serve the
consumers’ best interests. The current
system is based upon poor consumers’
qualification and a low level of
planning.

The truth is that food is not
an ordinary product; it
cannot be treated like other
products.
Food consumption should
become more like a health
treatment, rather than
entertainment.
The key factor for
tomorrow’s consumers is
their own individual needs
and... Life Science Integrated approach to health.
Adopted from Food Wars, Tim Lang & Michael Heasman,2004

...impact of the consumption on the environment.
Ecologically Integrated approach to health.

All we need to do is to wait till 2050!
The era of the Food Wars.

The technological progress shrinks time,
making yesterday’s expensive technology more
affordable and providing information about the
price, suppliers and transport links available,
while smaller but more efficient forms of trade
are entering the stage. People can get all of the
benefits from modern technology through fast
information finding, rational decision making,
coordination, ordering, etc.

The technical barrier can be overcome. All
that is necessary to do in this or similar
programme programmes is to create a
centre of gravity, where researchers and
scientists, by uniting their efforts, can
translate the gathered results of their
work into practical use with a visual effect
within days.

The answer to this challenge is obvious: we need to plan
carefully what to eat, which can significantly reduce the
uncertainty and increase the quality of the decision-
making and consumption.
Here, some of the instruments designed to help to organize
a healthy shopping list (the Waitrose on-line planner,
PDACookbook Plus etc.) can be a good answer: one was
created in Russia called: My Body, a Personal Diet,
originally made for diet specialists and the London Gym
Centre, and another promising break-through product
Fitbug was from the same company.
But these programmes are not elements of
the global system, yet.

Food marketing
system,
based on
individual
needs
Organizing tool,
programme,
additional health
measurement tools,
smart consumer –
friendly environment;
advanced equipment
Reduced
uncertainties
Increased
efficiency
Less waste,
better quality
of food and
consumption
Future state
The main idea

1. After the initial organizational work, it is necessary to organize an
information portal and create some structure, which can be a crystallization
centre of new information upon the subject.
It is also necessary to understand the main purpose of the new proposed
system on a global scale: it is aimed not to produce certainties, but to reduce
uncertainties, through a better pre-planned information flow.
2. At the time when the first phase of the implementation begins, it is
necessary to prepare a basis for this, so the marking and labelling of the
issues, the standards and various sizes available, and the needed equipment
must be adjusted.
3. In the future, the system should display the whole range of required and
transparent information about food, like the price and added value, on every
level of the trade chain, with growing data, allergy and cooking advice, and
many other issues.

Total time / Travel cost / Product cost
Hypermarket 195 min. $12 Low
Discount warehouse 160 min. $12 Very low
Supermarket 95 min. $5 Low
Neighbourhood store 50 min. $4 Medium
Convenience store 15 min. - High
Home shopping 25 min. - Low
+ delay
+ delivery
Customer Shopping alternatives.
Adopted from the book Lean Solutions.
James P. Womack, Daniel T. Jones, 2005
Leaninzm.

25 min. + delay + delivery
365 152 h.
L
o
w
Quality of
decision

Weekly distant /
in person consultancy
with an adviser
Daily automatic updates
from different sources.
Automatic meal booking
On-time delivery
Quality of
decision
H
i
g
h

Consumer
Business concept
of a food related information flow, in the concept of the future of food.
Consultants
Individual’s health
data collection
devices
Diet optimisation
program
Farms
Processors
Shared logistics
Catering
Researchers
“Food server”
Other
Consumers
Importers Retailers/Sampling stations

Changes in different layers of life
The author believes that the beginning of a new era of food
consumption has come, and that the whole food marketing
system should be ready for the changes which are inevitably
coming. The original dating for applying principles from the
theories of the Life Science Integrated approach to health and
the Ecologically Integrated approach to health can be moved
from 2050, as originally proposed, to our time, and no
limitative factors, besides the changes in the current trade
system, exist. The consumers themselves displayed a strong
wiliness to use tools to optimize their consumption.

Food/health science
All researchers are connected in the global research
chain and the shared knowledge base with an
immediate implementation of results across the
network. An enormous amount of statistical data
constantly improves applied research, with the
constant health/food monitoring of every individual
and each specific group.
State
We need to raise a question about the networked
governance in the global health and food control
system.

Cafes, restaurants
Connected into a global network of orders; every
client can be served individually.
Producers.
Working within the reduced uncertainty
situation by the fixed lot size method of
production.
Home.
Home & vertical gardens, gym, sauna. No high
tech or “smart” home kitchen equipment to
overcompensate for a lack of professional
skills.

Supermarkets
Transformation into logistics centres and
samples tasting places. Through collaboration
with gyms, sport centres, medical institutions
and different research organisations, they can
be transferred into networks of health
providers, rather than just being food
suppliers. Their income should depend on the
quality of the provided service, which is
measurable. They should not be driven by
price/income, but by quality and time/service
components.

Changes in priorities: the individual approach,
quality in all meanings, fear and transparent price,
are the major vectors of optimisation.
The competition in the food market will become less territorial,
the clear border between competitor and complementor will be unclear, and
the added value of each company far more visible.
Package: should be flexible, reusable and minimal.
Instead of a “just in time” system, a “just what we need” system.
New professions: Manager of ranking optimisation: includes skills and knowledge
related to diet/healthy food according to medical conditions and, at the same time
logistics, problem solving, optimisation, Lean and TRIZ.
Professional cooks can get more benefits from their skills by being judged by
clear and objective criteria for safe food cooking.

The future of food.

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Editor's Notes