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Évolutions économiques récentes et perspectives à court terme, mars 2014

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Évolutions économiques récentes et perspectives à court terme, mars 2014

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Évolutions économiques récentes et perspectives à court terme, mars 2014

  1. 1. 11 mars 2014 Évolutions économiques récentes et perspectives à court terme Rintaro Tamaki Secrétaire général adjoint et Chef Économiste par intérim de l’OCDE
  2. 2. 2 1. Évolutions économiques récentes et perspectives à court terme
  3. 3. 3 Les récents indices des directeurs d'achat sont globalement bons dans les grandes économies. Le consensus des conjoncturistes pour 2014 s’est amélioré ces derniers mois, sauf pour le Japon. La reprise se poursuit dans les économies avancées …
  4. 4. 4 … les indicateurs composites avancés de l'OCDE laissant entrevoir une inflexion à la hausse pour la zone OCDE …
  5. 5. 5 … mais pas dans la plupart des économies de marché émergentes
  6. 6. 6 L’activité bénéficie toujours des conditions financières accommodantes dans les économies avancées
  7. 7. 7 Trade volumes have risen more rapidly in recent months Parallèlement à la reprise des économies avancées, la croissance du commerce mondial s’est redressée
  8. 8. 8 Lesévolutionsrécentesont été influencéespar des conditionsmétéorologiquesexceptionnellesaux États-Unis La rigueur de l’hiver semble avoir entravé la croissance de la production … … et de l’emploi.
  9. 9. 9 Comme prévu, l’activité semble fortement orientée à la hausse à l’approche du 1er avril, mais devrait retomber ensuite. La hausse de la taxe sur la consommation va se traduire par une croissance à court terme en dents de scie au Japon
  10. 10. 10 Le taux de chômage reste proche de son plus haut niveau dans la zone euro. La divergence à la baisse de l’inflation par rapport à l’objectif s’est poursuivie dans la zone euro. Malgré une amélioration, la zone euro reste à la traîne des autres grandes économies avancées
  11. 11. 11 Prévisions intermédiaires à court terme de l’OCDE b 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 États-Unis 4.1 2.4 1.7 [3.1]* Japon 0.9 0.7 4.8 [-2.9]* Allemagne 1.3 1.5 3.7 2.5 France -0.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 Italie -0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 Royaume-Uni 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.3 Canada 2.7 2.9 0.5 [2.4]* Groupe des Sept (G7) 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 3 principaux pays de la zone euro 31 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.4 Source: Prévisions intermédiaires de l'OCDE. *Tous ces chiffres ont été obtenus à l'aide du modèle d'indicateurs de l'OCDE, sauf en ce qui concerne les États-Unis, le Japon et le Canada, pour lesquels les chiffres relatifs au 2e trimestre 2014 sont tirés des Perspectives économiques de novembre 2013, en raison de facteurs ponctuels ne pouvant être pris en compte dans le modèle. 1. Moyenne pondérée des données relatives à l'Allemagne, à la France et à l'Italie. Note: Taux calculé à partir des chiffres du PIB et des indicateurs à haute fréquence publiés à la date du 10 mars ; données corrigées des variations saisonnières et dans certains cas, des jours travaillés.
  12. 12. 12 2. Risques
  13. 13. 13 La croissance tendancielle a ralenti dans les économies émergentes …
  14. 14. 14 … et le durcissement des conditions financières pourrait entraîner en outre un ralentissement conjoncturel … Des turbulences soudaines sur les marchés de capitaux comme celles qui ont touché de nombreuses économies de marché émergentes en janvier pourraient déprimer la croissance à court terme dans certains cas.
  15. 15. 15 … et pourrait compliquer la reprise dans les économies avancées
  16. 16. 16 Le fléchissement observé aux États-Unis pourrait être moins transitoire que prévu Les ventes de logements ont diminué parallèlement à la hausse des taux d’intérêt à long terme. La confiance des entreprises s’est dégradée.
  17. 17. 17 3. Priorités d’action
  18. 18. 18 Priorités pour soutenir la demande et réduire les risques budgétaires dans les économies avancées • Réduire progressivement l’orientation expansionniste de la politique monétaire, en communiquant avec soin sur la question. • Améliorer la qualité de l’assainissement budgétaire à mesure que son rythme ralentit. États- Unis • Poursuivre en l’état ou amplifier la politique de relance monétaire. • Veiller ce que l’examen du système bancaire soit crédible et suivi. • Respecter le rythme prévu de l’assainissement budgétaire structurel. Zone euro • Atteindre ou dépasser l’objectif prévu en matière d’assouplissement quantitatif et qualitatif. • Assainir avec détermination les finances publiques. • Renforcer les efforts de réforme structurelle (correspondant au troisième volet de l'« Abenomics », la stratégie économique du Premier ministre Shinzo Abe). Japon
  19. 19. 19 Priorités pour gérer le fléchissement de la demande et l’accentuation de l’aversion pour le risque dans les économies de marché émergentes • Limiter de manière régulière la croissance du crédit. • Améliorer la réglementation financière et macroprudentielle. • Renforcer la surveillance et la maîtrise des dépenses des collectivités locales. • Mettre en œuvre les vastes réformes annoncées en novembre. Chine • Assurer une flexibilité suffisante du taux de change. • Remédier aux tensions inflationnistes si nécessaire. • Assouplir la politique budgétaire uniquement s’il existe des marges de manœuvre suffisantes. Autres économies de marché émergentes
  20. 20. 20 La plupart des pays peuvent considérablement amplifier les réformes structurelles propices à la croissance Source : Estimations de l'OCDE basées sur Objectif croissance 2014. Taux de réactivité aux recommandations formulées dans Objectif croissance Note : Le taux de réactivité correspond à la proportion de domaines prioritaires identifiés dans Objectif croissance pour lesquels des mesures « significatives » ont été prises. Les taux de réactivité calculés pour zone euro et la zone OCDE sont des moyennes non pondérées. Taux de réactivité aux priorités de réforme, 2012-2013 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 IDN NOR ISL CHE RUS BEL CHL NLD TUR USA LUX KOR SWE POL JPN AUS AUT HUN FRA ITA CZE DEU OECD ISR CAN SVN CHN ZAF DNK FIN BRA IND SVK GBR MEX PRT EST NZL ESP IRL GRC
  21. 21. 21 4. En résumé
  22. 22. 22 La dynamique de croissance s’améliore dans les grandes économies avancées. Le ralentissement de la croissance est accentué par le durcissement des conditions financières dans les économies émergentes. Les réformes structurelles revêtent une importance grandissante tant dans les économies avancées que dans les économies émergentes. Principaux messages

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