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Are Australian early warning systems working?

Presentation to the 2014 International Disaster Reduction Conference in Kaohsiung, Taiwan on the effectiveness of Australian early warning systems and how they could be improved

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Australian eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg 
ssyysstteemmss:: aarree tthheeyy wwoorrkkiinngg?? 
NNeeiill DDuuffttyy
MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 22 
OOvveerrvviieeww 
 WWhhaatt aarree eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss?? 
 IImmppoorrttaannccee iinn bbuuiillddiinngg ddiissaasstteerr rreessiilliieennccee 
 EEaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss iinn AAuussttrraalliiaa 
 FFiinnddiinnggss ffoorr GGAARR 22001155 rreevviieeww 
 CCaassee ssttuuddyy:: ffllooooddss 
 PPrrooggrreessss aanndd ggaappss 
 EExxaammppllee ooff rreesseeaarrcchh
Early wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss 
Early warning systems detect impending 
disaster, give that information to people 
at risk, and enable those in danger to 
make decisions and take action (Mileti, 
1999) 
MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 33
FFoouurr ppaarrttss ooff aann 
eeffffeeccttiivvee eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg 
ssyysstteemm 
 Risk knowledge. 
 Monitoring and warning service. 
 Dissemination and communication. 
 Response capability. 
UNISDR, 2003 
MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 4
DDiissaasstteerr rreessiilliieennccee 
MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 55
A disaster rreessiilliieennccee 
ffrraammeewwoorrkk 
66 
Early warning 
systems Early warning 
systems 
GOVERNANC 
E 
POPULATIO 
N 
ECONOMY 
CLIMATE 
CHANGE

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Are Australian early warning systems working?

  • 1. Australian eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss:: aarree tthheeyy wwoorrkkiinngg?? NNeeiill DDuuffttyy
  • 2. MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 22 OOvveerrvviieeww  WWhhaatt aarree eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss??  IImmppoorrttaannccee iinn bbuuiillddiinngg ddiissaasstteerr rreessiilliieennccee  EEaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss iinn AAuussttrraalliiaa  FFiinnddiinnggss ffoorr GGAARR 22001155 rreevviieeww  CCaassee ssttuuddyy:: ffllooooddss  PPrrooggrreessss aanndd ggaappss  EExxaammppllee ooff rreesseeaarrcchh
  • 3. Early wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss Early warning systems detect impending disaster, give that information to people at risk, and enable those in danger to make decisions and take action (Mileti, 1999) MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 33
  • 4. FFoouurr ppaarrttss ooff aann eeffffeeccttiivvee eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemm  Risk knowledge.  Monitoring and warning service.  Dissemination and communication.  Response capability. UNISDR, 2003 MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 4
  • 6. A disaster rreessiilliieennccee ffrraammeewwoorrkk 66 Early warning systems Early warning systems GOVERNANC E POPULATIO N ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 7. Australia: AA bbiigg ccoouunnttrryy MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 77
  • 8. MMaaiinn hhaazzaarrddss iinn AAuussttrraalliiaa Natural Technological Human-caused Resulting from acts of nature Involves accidents of failures and structures Caused by the intentional actions of an adversary · Bushfire · Cyclone · Drought · Earthquake · Epidemic · Flood · Heatwave · Storm · Tsunami · Aeroplane crash · Dam/levee failure · Hazardous materials release · Power failure · Radiological release · Train derailment · Urban conflagration · Civil disturbance · Cyber incidents · Sabotage · School violence · Terrorist acts MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 88
  • 9. Australian eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 99
  • 10. Arrangements ffoorr eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss Under Australia’s constitutional arrangements, State and Territory emergency management legislation identifies control agencies and guides early warnings. The control agencies are responsible for delivering warnings to the public. MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1100
  • 11. TThhee BBuurreeaauu ooff MMeetteeoorroollooggyy Bureau of Meteorology disseminates warnings, watches and advices on weather events such as severe thunderstorms, fire weather, coastal hazards, high winds, flood and tropical cyclone warnings and, in collaboration with Geoscience Australia, tsunami warnings. MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1111
  • 12. Input rreevviieeww ppaappeerr ffoorr 22001155 GGAARR Input paper addressed Research Area 4, Priority for Action 2 – Core Indicator 3 from the HFA: Early warning systems are in place for all major hazards, with outreach to communities. MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1122
  • 13. RReevviieeww ssoouurrcceess  From consultation with emergency agencies from the Australian states and territories.  Post-disaster evaluations. These included reports from royal commissions, government inquiries and after action reviews.  Between event evaluations. MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1133
  • 14. FFiinnddiinnggss –– FFllooooddss Manual 21 states that an effective flood warning system can be defined as having six integrated components: Prediction Interpretation Message Construction Communication Response Review MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1144
  • 15. QQuueeeennssllaanndd FFllooooddss CCoommmmiissssiioonn ooff IInnqquuiirryy QQuueeeennssllaanndd FFllooooddss CCoommmmiissssiioonn ooff IInnqquuiirryy iinnttoo 22001111 ffllooooddss the lack of flood studies to assist in flood prediction and interpretation the lack of evacuation planning (response) in some communities MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1155
  • 16. Victorian FFllooooddss RReevviieeww  LLaacckk ooff ccllaarriittyy oovveerr rroolleess aanndd oowwnneerrsshhiipp  GGaappss iinn tthhee ggaauuggiinngg nneettwwoorrkk  LLaacckk ooff ccoommmmuunniittyy uunnddeerrssttaannddiinngg aabboouutt mmeeaanniinngg ooff wwaarrnniinnggss  CCoonncceerrnn aabboouutt ffllaasshh fflloooodd wwaarrnniinngg MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1166
  • 17. OOtthheerr ffiinnddiinnggss  22000099 VViiccttoorriiaann BBuusshhffiirreess RRooyyaall CCoommmmiissssiioonn  EEvvaalluuaattiioonnss ffrroomm rreecceenntt ffllooooddss,, bbuusshhffiirreess,, ccyycclloonneess  FFeeeeddbbaacckk ffrroomm eemmeerrggeennccyy aaggeenncciieess MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1177
  • 18. PPrrooggrreessss  RReeccoommmmeennddaattiioonnss ffrroomm ggoovveerrnnmmeenntt iinnqquuiirriieess aanndd rreevviieewwss bbeeiinngg iimmpplleemmeenntteedd  NNaattiioonnaall rreevviieeww ooff eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss bbeeiinngg ccoonndduucctteedd  IImmpprroovveemmeennttss iinn iinntteerrooppeerraabbiilliittyy,, ffoorreeccaassttiinngg aanndd pprreeddiiccttiioonn,, rraannggee ooff wwaarrnniinngg tteecchhnniiqquueess MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1188
  • 19. GGaappss  LLooww lleevveellss ooff ccoommmmuunniittyy pprreeppaarreeddnneessss  FFllaasshh ffllooooddiinngg  UUnnddeerrssttaannddiinngg ooff rreessppoonnssee bbeehhaavviioouurrss  EEvvaalluuaattiioonn ooff eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg ssyysstteemmss MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 1199
  • 20. Example ooff ffllaasshh fflloooodd eeaarrllyy wwaarrnniinngg rreesseeaarrcchh MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 2200
  • 21. RRuusssseellllss CCrreeeekk,, WWaarrrrnnaammbbooooll MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 2211
  • 22. OOnnllyy oonnee hhoouurr ooff wwaarrnniinngg MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 2222
  • 23. WWhhaatt ddoo yyoouu ddoo??  BBeetttteerr uussee ooff eexxiissttiinngg fflloooodd wwaarrnniinngg sseerrvviicceess pprroovviiddeedd bbyy tthhee BBuurreeaauu ooff MMeetteeoorroollooggyy  TTaaiilloorreedd ccoommmmuunniittyy fflloooodd eedduuccaattiioonn wwiitthh ddiiffffeerreenntt aalleerrtt ttrriiggggeerrss  IInnssttaallllaattiioonn ooff ttwwoo nneeww rraaiinn ggaauuggeess aanndd tteelleemmeettrryy  AAnn oopptt--iinn SSMMSS aalleerrtt ssyysstteemm lliinnkkeedd ttoo rraaiinn ggaauuggeess aanndd tteelleemmeettrryy MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 2233
  • 24. SSuummmmaarryy  IInnqquuiirriieess aanndd rreevviieewwss iinnttoo ddiissaasstteerrss hhaavvee iiddeennttiiffiieedd iimmpprroovveemmeennttss  SSoommee iimmpprroovveemmeennttss hhaavvee bbeeeenn ddeemmoonnssttrraatteedd iinn rreecceenntt ddiissaasstteerrss ee..gg.. 22001133 BBlluuee MMoouunnttaaiinnss bbuusshhffiirree wwhheerree nnoo lliivveess wweerree lloosstt bbuutt 220000 hhoommeess ddeessttrrooyyeedd  FFuurrtthheerr wwoorrkk rreeqquuiirreedd ppaarrttiiccuullaarrllyy rreellaatteedd ttoo ccoommmmuunniittyy rreessppoonnssee ttoo wwaarrnniinnggss MMoolliinnoo SStteewwaarrtt 2244