Melissa Lapsa, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Dutch Uselton, Lennox International Jaewan Joe, ORNL Mini Malhotra, ORNL Van Baxter, ORNL

1. ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for the US Department of Energy
U.S. Heat Pump Market
November 12, 2019
Melissa Lapsa, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
Dutch Uselton, Lennox International
Jaewan Joe, ORNL
Mini Malhotra, ORNL
Van Baxter, ORNL
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2. 2
2
2
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
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3. 3
3
3
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
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4. 4
4
4
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
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5. 5
5
5
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
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6. 6
6
6
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
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7. 7
7
7
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
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8. 8
8
8
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
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9. 9
9
9
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
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10. 10
10
10
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
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11. 11
11
11
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units
Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.
Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and HP Products
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12. 12
12
12
US Fraction of Heat Pumps in Total AC and HP Shipments,
by Year
Source: US Census, 2017 Characteristics of New Housing, 2018
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13. 13
13
13
US Manufacturer’s Shipments of Unitary Central Air
Conditioners, Unitary Heat Pumps, Oil and Natural Gas
Furnaces
Source: AHRI
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14. 14
14
14
Geothermal HP Shipments
Sources: Shipments/installations through 2009 are based on data from the US
Energy Information Administration (EIA). For 2010-2015 shipments were estimated
based on Energy Star unit shipment and market penetration reports
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15. 15
15
15
Central AC and ASHP Shipment
Sources: AHRI
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16. 16
16
16
Total installed costs and typical capacities
Sources: Navigant Consulting, Inc. Appendix A, EIA - Technology Forecast Updates – Residential and Commercial Building Technologies – Reference Case. Updated Buildings
Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency. April 2018.
-
30
60
90
120
150
-
6,000
12,000
18,000
24,000
30,000
Air
source
heat
pump
Ground
source
heat
pump
Natural
gas
(absorption)
heat
pump
Gas-fired
furnace
(North
US)
Gas-fired
furnace
(Rest
of
US)
Oil-fired
furnace
Gas-fired
boiler
Oil-fired
boiler
Elec.
resistance
furnace
Typical
Capacity
(kBtu/h)
Cost
(2017$)
Residential Space Heating
Heat Pump
Technologies Other Technologies
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Gas-fired,
engine-
driven
rooftop…
Air-cooled
rooftop
heat
pump
Ground
source
heat
pump
Gas-fired
furnace
Oil-fired
furnace
Elec.
resistance
heaters
(small)
Elec.
resistance
heaters
(large)
Gas-fired
boiler
Oil-fired
boiler
Electric
boiler
Typical
Capacity
(kBtu/h,
unless
specified)
Cost
(2017$)
Commercial Space Heating
Heat Pump
Technologies
Other Technologies
11 ton
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Heat
pump
water
heater
Gas-fired,
storage
Oil-fired,
storage
Elec.
resistance,
storage
Gas-fired,
instantaneous
Solar
water
heater
Typical
Capacity
(gallon,
unless
specified)
Cost
(2017$)
Commercial Water Heating
Other Technologies
34 gpm 83 sqft
250-399 kBtu/h
-
40
80
120
160
200
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Heat
pump
water
heater
Gas-fired,
storage
Oil-fired,
storage
Elec.
resistance,
storage
Gas-fired,
instantaneous
Solar
water
heater
Typical
Capacity
(gallon,
unless
specified)
Cost
(2017$)
Residential Water Heating
Other Technologies
199 kBtu/h
42-63 sqft
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Heat
pump
water
heater
Gas-fired,
storage
Oil-fired,
storage
Elec.
resistance,
storage
Gas-fired,
instantaneous
Solar
w
ater
heater
Cost
(2017$)
Commercial Water Heating
Total Installed Cost Range RetailEquipment Cost Range
Typical Capacity
Heat Pump
Technology Other Technologies
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Heat
pump
water
heater
Gas-fired,
storage
Oil-fired,
storage
Elec.
resistance,
storage
Cost
(2017$)
Commercial Water Heating
Total Installed Cost Range Retail Equipm
Typical Capacity
Heat Pump
Technology Other Technologies
Heat Pump
Technologies
Heat Pump
Technologies
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17. 17
17
17
Maintenance cost and average life
Sources: Navigant Consulting, Inc. Appendix A, EIA - Technology Forecast Updates – Residential and Commercial Building Technologies – Reference Case. Updated Buildings
Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency. April 2018.
-
30
60
90
120
150
180
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
Air
source
heat
pump
Ground
source
heat
pump
Natural
gas
(absorption)
heat
pump
Gas-fired
furnace
(North
US)
Gas-fired
furnace
(Rest
of
US)
Oil-fired
furnace
Gas-fired
boiler
Oil-fired
boiler
Elec.
resistance
furnace
Annual
Maintenance
Cost
($)
Average
Life
(Years)
Residential Space Heating
Heat Pump
Technologies
Other Technologies
-
30
60
90
120
150
180
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
Heat
pump
water
heater
Gas-fired,
storage
Oil-fired,
storage
Elec.
resistance,
storage
Gas-fired,
instantaneous
Solar
water
heater
Annual
Maintenance
Cost
($)
Average
Life
(Years)
Residential Water Heating
Other Technologies
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
6
12
18
24
30
Gas-fired,
engine-
driven
rooftop…
Air-cooled
rooftop
heat
pump
Ground
source
heat
pump
Gas-fired
furnace
Oil-fired
furnace
Elec.
resistance
heaters
(small)
Elec.
resistance
heaters
(large)
Gas-fired
boiler
Oil-fired
boiler
Electric
boiler
Annual
Maintenance
Cost
($)
Average
Life
(Years)
Commercial Space Heating
Heat Pump
Technologies
Other Technologies
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Heat
pump
water
heater
Gas-fired,
storage
Oil-fired,
storage
Elec.
resistance,
storage
Gas-fired,
instantaneous
Solar
water
heater
Annual
Maintenance
Cost
($)
Average
Life
(Years)
Commercial Water Heating
Other Technologies
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Heat
pump
water
heater
Gas-fired,
storage
Oil-fired,
storage
Elec.
res
is
tance,
storage
Gas-fired,
instantaneous
Solar
w
ater
heater
Annual
Maintenance
Cost
($)
Average
Life
(Years)
Commercial Water Heating
AverageLife (Min-Max Range) AnnualMaintenance Cost
Heat Pump
Technology Other Technologies
Heat Pump
Technologies
Heat Pump
Technologies
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18. 18
18
18
Financial Incentives for Heat Pumps
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Sales Tax Incentive
Rebate Program
Property Tax Incentive
Personal Tax Deduction
Personal Tax Credit
PACE Financing
Loan Program
Leasing Program
Industry Recruitment/Support
Green Building Incentive
Grant Program
Corporate Tax Deduction
Corporate Tax Credit
Corporate Depreciation
Bond Program
Utility Rate Discount
Performance-Based Incentive
Other Incentive
Federal State and Utilities
607 programs
143 programs
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19. 19
19
19
Regulatory Policies
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Renewables Portfolio Standard
Public Benefits Fund
Energy Standards for Public Buildings
Energy Efficiency Resource Standard
Solar/Wind Access Policy (includes geothermal access)
Other Policy
Green Power Purchasing
Appliance/Equipment Efficiency Standards
Building Energy Code
Federal State and Utilities
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20. 20
20
20
DOE’s Partners for Heat Pump R&D
•To advance technology R&D and commercialization
National laboratories, academia, small businesses,
manufacturers, and other industry stakeholders
•To help accelerate market acceptance
Standards and certifying bodies and technical
organizations (e.g., ASHRAE, AHRI)
•To reduce heating and cooling energy consumption
Windows and Building Envelope Sub-Program
•To bridge the gap from technology commercialization to broad market
acceptance
Residential and Commercial Building Integration
Programs
•To identify equipment or appliances that require further R&D support
•To facilitate development of appropriate codes and standards.
Building Codes and Appliance and Equipment Standards
Programs
Partnering Programs
within DOE’s Building
Technology Office
R&D of heat pumping
technologies
Heating, Ventilation,
Air Conditioning/Water
Heating/Appliances
Sub-Program
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21. 21
21
21
Refrigerant Policies
• The US has not signed-on to the Paris Accord / 2016 Kigali
Agreement
• The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is not
currently pursuing further de-listing of HFCs through the
Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP).
• Some states are considering legislating to reduce the use
of HFCs in new HVAC equipment. California is the only
state, so far, with laws in-place.
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22. 22
22
22
Efficiency Trends
• 1979 was first appearance of the Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio
(SEER) for air conditioning equipment.
• Beginning in 1992, the US Department of Energy established minimum
efficiency requirements for many classes of consumer products
including air conditioners and heat pumps.
• Minimum 10 SEER for AC took effect Jan. 1992
• Minimum 13 SEER for AC took effect Jan. 2006
• Regional Minimums took effect in July 2016
• 14 SEER for South and Southwest
• 13 SEER for remainder of country
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23. 23
23
23
Advancing Technologies
• Proliferation of “communicating” controls (Internet of
Things)
• New generation refrigerants with lower GWP
• Research supporting Codes and Standards for “A2L”
refrigerants
• Incorporation of refrigerant and airflow modulation
• Improvement of HP low-temperature performance
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24. 24
24
24
Trends
• Development of AC made southern latitudes more habitable
• Population growth rate has been greatest in “sunbelt” states –
good climate for heat pumps
• Research on improving heat pump performance for colder
climates
• Transition to Lower GWP refrigerants and responding to higher
efficiency minimums are challenging the US HVAC industry
• “Internet Generation” has different expectations about HVAC
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25. 25
25
25
Thank You!
Contact Info:
Melissa V. Lapsa
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
lapsamv@ornl.gov
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26. 26
26
26
Appendix. standard and efficiency
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27. 27
27
27
Appendix. standard and efficiency
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28. 28
28
28
Appendix. standard and efficiency
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