An upside intermediate-term move may be coming soon

1. 07-01-2012 Weekly chart
Tadawul All Shares Index
< TASI >
An upside intermediate-term move may be
coming soon. Needless to say that we have walked in some
sideways action for a while, also it is believed that most of the
sideways trends create some type of price patterns. So, have we got
a price pattern here? Ok, the answer is: until now a high probable
one. But, what we have here? So far, we have an incomplete
continuation (H&S) pattern which has volume characteristics agree
with it. As we could see, the left shoulder comes in higher volume
than the right one (the two pink rectangles) also, we have a
contracting volume during the move from the (LS) to the neckline
and the opposite from the (H) to the neckline. Then, we got a good
expanding volume along the move from (RS) to the neckline. After
having that done, we still need to see the decisive breakout of (7000)
level to could see (9000 – 9300) level. By giving an eye to (BB) we
could see the last apparent convergence which point to a probable
coming thrust. Also the MACD has broken an old declining trend
line and now is ready to break a short term one.
Now, if we decided to trade that expectation, we could buy
the next dip (@6160) with a stop loss (@5860 (or 5% of the
capital whichever the smaller)) (nevertheless, it is recommended to take
only quarter of the position on the expectation then a half on the
breakout itself then the last quarter on the return move).
Finally, it should be mentioned that, unless we got our
desired breakout (7000 level); our expectation is still
suspected and could miss the fact.
Last price: 6407.87