The JSC[X] purpose is to solicit ideas and test concepts that will provide those breakthroughs that will yield solutions critical for Human spaceflight along the path of Mars. By taking the step back and looking at the “crazy ideas that would waste taxpayers money” that might not be just crazy after all we may yet find those 10X solutions. It is a learning process about potential radical new technologies and once concepts have shown viability they can be announced and looking for partnership and other collaborators and long term programmatic funding. JSC[X] is about putting aside money to look at the problems of Human Spaceflight and look for the far reaching answers that are not getting funded or even considered at the larger agency level. It would be a fundamental shift in the center of gravity for research with the Center taking the reins and controlling the investment versus the typical AES/STMD and other pipelines and agendas beyond JSCs control.
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
JSC [X] concept White Paper
1. 10X IS EASIER THAN 10 PERCENT - Astro Teller
“Because whenyou’re working to make things10 percent better, you inevitablyfocus
on the existing toolsand assumptions, and on building on top of an existing solution
that many people have already spent a lot of time thinking about. Such incremental
progressis driven by extra effort, extra money, and extra resources. It’stempting to
feel improving thingsthisway meanswe’re being good soldiers, with the grit and
perseverance tocontinue where othersmay have failed — but most of the time we find
ourselves stuck in the same old slog.” - Wired Article
Can JSC[X] help get us to Mars: The journeyto Marsis a long drawnout slog, but
I believe thereare ideastoo scared to come forward that mayyet be key to unlocking
that journeyif we arewilling to takerisks. The mantra at NASA hasbeenwith
technology development to be good stewardsof the taxpayersdollars. We focus on the
incrementalimprovementstosqueeze performancemarginfrom thesystem we know
instead of fundamentallystepping backand looking if there is a different wayto
providedramaticimprovement bytaking a riskon a system design concept that may
not be viable. Weare so worried about congressionalhearingsfor wasting moneyon
boondogglesthat we stifle innovationby taking the road well worn versus risking
spending the money on something that mayend up in a dead end but a great learning
experiencealong the path.
Background Videos:
Moonshot Thinking
Emerging Technologies that Matter
Watch how Google X employees Deal with Failure
2. Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can
change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.
Margaret Mead
Moonshot thinking startswith pickinga big
problem:something huge, long existing, or on a
global scale. Next it involves articulating a radical
solution — one that would actually solve the
problem if it existed:a product or service that
sounds like it’sdirectly out of a sci-fi story. Finally
there needs to be some kind of concrete evidence
that the proposed solution is not quite as crazy asit
at first seems; something that justifiesat least a
close look at whether such a solutioncould be
brought intobeing if enough creativity, passion,
and persistence were broughttobear on it. This
evidence could be some breakthrough inscience,
technology, or engineering that could actually make
the solution possible withinthe next decade or so. - Wired Article
What is JSC[X] - The concept for JSC[X] is to solicit ideasand test conceptsthat will
providethose breakthroughsthat willyield solutions criticalfor Human spaceflight
along the path of Mars. By taking thestep backand looking at the “crazyideasthat
would wastetaxpayersmoney” that might not be just crazy after all we mayyet find
those 10X solutions. It is a learning process about potentialradicalnew technologies
and once conceptshave shown viabilitytheycanbe announced and looking for
partnership and other collaboratorsand long term programmatic funding. JSC[X] is
about putting asidemoneyto look at the problemsof HumanSpaceflight and look for
the far reaching answersthat arenot getting funded or even considered at the larger
agencylevel. It would be a fundamentalshift in the center of gravityfor research with
the Center taking thereins and controlling the investment versus the typical
AES/STMDand other pipelinesand agendasbeyond JSCscontrol.
3. "Engineering isn't about perfect solutions; it's about doing the
best you can with limited resources"
Randy Pausch
Risk: The risk is programslikeOrion or ISS thinking theyare being taxed intopaying
for these JSC pet projectsor HQ seeing it as an undermining their authoritytodictate
technologicalinvestment for the agency. The center leadership would need to decide
the funding mechanism that isn’t a raiding ofauthorized funds but a creativesolution
to enable [X] to work on some trialballoons of conceptsthat even if they failit is okay.
Once a project shows promiseit cangraduatetomoreinline program/projectfunding
streamsor continue to maturein[X] if the concept isstill too radicalfor the agencyto
comprehend.
Hurdle: Thebiggest hurdleis not carving out the seed money but overcoming the
government bureaucracytoallow folks to work on the projects. Whileall the civil
servantsget paid regardlessof project/tasktheyworkon the FTE/timecardissueswill
need to be worked out and it would be ideal if therewas a mechanism that contractor
support could also be provided. Providing theworkforcemechanism will be crucialso
that [X] funds could be used for procurement and ifnecessary traveland not get
chewed up by WYE costs.
Workforce: If a dedicated skunkworks team canbe assembled with mix skills and
intereststo work on the projectsthenthey could be the core [X] team and matrix in
expertisefrom acrossthe center as required tosolve problems. Thisteam makeup is
similar tothe iDOT teamsthat helped Orion solved some of their weight issuesover the
years by bringing ina diversebut balanced team to takea fresh approach tothe
avionicsand power distributionsystems. From the iDOT camethePDU that is the
backboneof the Orion APS today.
4. Death comes to all But great achievements build a monument
which shall endure until the sun grows cold. - George Fabricius
Proposed tiered concept for JSC[X]
Concept[X] $1M per year
● the initial radical concept evaluation phase ( Rapid Evaluation Team that finds failures )
○ Short duration(6 months) to brainstorm and start fleshing out the 10X solutions
○ come at the problem from blank slate and avoid the traps of how things have been done
in the past
● 6 Proposals - $80k procurement, $20k travel
○ concepts with no more than 25% success rate
○ trying and failing several quick options during this phase is highly encouraged
Prototype[X] $2M per year
● Refining the radical concept evaluation phase (like Google Glass)
○ Medium Duration (1- 2 years) tostart building that rough prototype to prove out the
concept
○ 6 months in briefing from NASA Reality Rep - goal to make sure that solution takes
consideration into how on ramping to test on ISS (Class 1-E) or other NASA
regulations/procedures that may need to be considered. allows revectoring before too
far down a path that won’t fly.
● 3 Proposals - per year $500K procurement, $50k travel
○ concepts that have made it through the concept[X] phase or other concepts that still
have a low chance of success 35%
○ expect several prototypes along the way that fail as the team tries various solutions
Solve for [X] $2M per year
● Taking the prototype to some small scale real world testing (like Project Loon)
○ Long Duration (2-3 years) totake that dirty prototype from the lab and refine the
possible solution, learning along the way
○ 8 months in briefing from NASA Reality Rep - goal to make sure that solution takes
consideration into how on ramping to test on ISS (Class 1-E) or other NASA
regulations/procedures that may need to be considered. allows revectoring before too
far down a path that won’t fly.
○ Goal would be to have a working viable concept that can then look to inline programs or
external partnerships to graduate the project to JSC
● 1 Proposal - per year $1M, $50k travel
○ concepts that are still too controversial/risky (50% chance of success) for normal
funding avenues
○ taking the risk for HSF on potential capability that will be that 10x improvement