Forex Market.pptx

www.sanjivanimba.org.in
406 FIN – International Finance
Unit No. 2
Foreign Exchange Markets
Presented By:
Dr. K. Meenakshi
1
Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon
Department of MBA

Structure of Foreign Exchange Markets
Foreign exchange markets, also known as forex or FX markets, are decentralized
markets where participants can buy, sell, exchange, and speculate on currencies. These markets
operate 24 hours a day, five days a week, across multiple time zones. The structure of the
foreign exchange markets is complex and diverse, involving a variety of participants,
instruments, and trading venues.
Participants: The foreign exchange market participants can be categorized into five main
groups:
 Commercial banks: Commercial banks act as intermediaries between buyers and sellers in
the forex market. They provide liquidity to the market and make markets for their clients.

 Central banks: Central banks are responsible for managing the monetary policy of their
respective countries. They also participate in the forex market to stabilize their domestic
currency and influence foreign exchange rates.
 Investment banks: Investment banks provide trading and advisory services to institutional
investors, corporations, and governments. They play a vital role in the forex market by
facilitating large transactions and managing currency risks.
 Retail traders: Retail traders are individual traders who participate in the forex market
through online platforms provided by brokers. They usually trade in small volumes and
speculate on short-term price movements.
 Corporations: Multinational corporations use the forex market to manage their foreign
exchange risks, such as those related to currency exposure from international trade and
investment.

Instruments: The foreign exchange market offers various financial instruments that allow participants to
buy, sell, or exchange currencies. The most common instruments include:
 Spot transactions: Spot transactions are the exchange of currencies at the prevailing exchange rate at
the time of the transaction. They are settled within two business days.
 Forward contracts: Forward contracts allow participants to buy or sell currencies at a predetermined
exchange rate at a future date. They are used to hedge against currency risk and can be customized to
meet specific needs.
 Futures contracts: Futures contracts are similar to forward contracts but are standardized and traded
on an exchange. They have a fixed expiry date and size, and the settlement is done through the
exchange.
 Options contracts: Options contracts give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell
currencies at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date. They are used to hedge against currency
risk and can also be customized to meet specific needs.

Trading venues: Foreign exchange transactions can take place on various trading venues, including:
 Interbank market: The interbank market is where banks and other financial institutions trade
currencies with each other directly or through electronic platforms. It is the largest and most liquid
segment of the forex market.
 Retail market: The retail market comprises brokers who offer online platforms to retail traders. These
platforms allow traders to access the forex market and trade in small volumes.
 Electronic trading platforms: Electronic trading platforms are online portals that provide access to the
forex market for both institutional and retail participants. These platforms offer various trading tools,
such as charts, news feeds, and analytics, to assist traders in making informed decisions.

Types of Transactions
In the foreign exchange market, there are two main types of transactions: spot
transactions and forward transactions. The settlement date for each type of transaction is
different.
1. Spot Transactions:
• A spot transaction is the exchange of currencies at the prevailing exchange rate at the time of
the transaction. Spot transactions are settled within two business days. For example, if you
buy US dollars for Euros in a spot transaction on Monday, the settlement will take place on
Wednesday.
• Spot transactions are the most common type of forex transaction, and they are used for
immediate currency needs such as paying for imports or exports.

2. Forward Transactions:
• A forward transaction is an agreement between two parties to exchange currencies at a
future date at a predetermined exchange rate. The exchange rate is fixed at the time the
contract is made, and the settlement date can be any time in the future, from a few days to
several years.
• Forward transactions are used to hedge against currency risk, as they allow participants to
lock in a specific exchange rate for future transactions. They are also used for speculation or
investment purposes.

• For example, a company that knows it will need to purchase Euros in six months to pay for a
shipment of goods may enter into a forward contract to buy Euros at a fixed exchange rate in
six months, eliminating the risk of currency fluctuations.
• The settlement date for a forward transaction is agreed upon at the time the contract is
made. The settlement can be in cash or by delivery of the underlying currency.
• The settlement date for spot transactions is two business days from the date of the
transaction, while the settlement date for forward transactions is agreed upon at the time the
contract is made, and can be any time in the future.

Settlement Date
Settlement date in the foreign exchange market refers to the date on which a trade is executed,
and the parties involved exchange currencies and complete the transaction. The settlement date can be
different for spot and forward transactions.
1. Spot Transactions:
• In spot transactions, settlement is usually made within two business days from the date of the
transaction. For example, if a trade is executed on Monday, the settlement date would be Wednesday.
The two-day settlement period is commonly known as T+2, with "T" representing the transaction date.
• The settlement of spot transactions is typically done through a wire transfer of funds between the two
parties' bank accounts. The buyer transfers the agreed amount in their currency to the seller's account,
and the seller transfers the equivalent amount in the buyer's currency to their account.

2. Forward Transactions:
• In forward transactions, the settlement date is agreed upon at the time of the contract, and it
can range from a few days to several years. The settlement can be in cash or delivery of the
underlying currency, depending on the terms of the contract.
• For example, if a company enters into a forward contract to buy euros in six months at a
fixed exchange rate, the settlement will take place in six months, and the company will
receive the euros it has contracted to buy. The settlement date for forward transactions can
also be used for netting purposes, where multiple transactions can be settled on the same
date to reduce settlement risk.

Exchange Rate Quotations
Exchange rate quotations refer to the way in which the value of one currency is
expressed in terms of another currency. In the foreign exchange market, there are two types of
exchange rate quotations: direct and indirect.
1. Direct Exchange Rate Quotations:
• A direct exchange rate quotation is the value of a foreign currency in terms of the domestic
currency. In other words, it represents how many units of the domestic currency are
required to purchase one unit of the foreign currency. For example, a direct quotation for the
exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro would be expressed as USD/EUR,
indicating the number of euros that can be bought for one US dollar.

2. Indirect Exchange Rate Quotations:
• An indirect exchange rate quotation is the value of the domestic currency in terms of the foreign
currency. In other words, it represents how many units of the foreign currency are required to
purchase one unit of the domestic currency. For example, an indirect quotation for the exchange rate
between the US dollar and the euro would be expressed as EUR/USD, indicating the number of US
dollars that can be bought for one euro.
• Arbitrage is the practice of exploiting price differences in two or more markets to make a profit. In the
foreign exchange market, arbitrage is possible when there are discrepancies in exchange rate
quotations between different markets. For example, if the exchange rate between the US dollar and the
euro is 1 USD = 0.85 EUR in one market and 1 USD = 0.87 EUR in another market, an arbitrage
opportunity arises. An investor can buy dollars in the first market, exchange them for euros, and sell
the euros in the second market for a profit.

Arbitrage
• Arbitrage is the practice of exploiting price differences in two or more markets to make a
profit with zero or low-risk investments. In the context of financial markets, arbitrage is used
to capitalize on discrepancies in prices of the same financial instrument traded in different
markets or at different times. In essence, it involves buying an asset in one market and
simultaneously selling it in another market to take advantage of the difference in prices.
• In the foreign exchange market, arbitrage opportunities can arise due to temporary
differences in exchange rates quoted in different markets. For example, if the exchange rate
between the US dollar and the British pound is $1.35/£ in one market and $1.40/£ in another
market, an arbitrageur could buy pounds in the first market and sell them in the second
market, making a profit of $0.05 for each pound.

However, arbitrage opportunities are rare and usually disappear quickly as traders
take advantage of the price differences, driving the prices back into equilibrium. Moreover,
arbitrage opportunities require significant capital and sophisticated trading infrastructure to
execute trades quickly and efficiently.
As a result, only large financial institutions and hedge funds can engage in arbitrage
trading. In the foreign exchange market, arbitrage opportunities can arise due to temporary
differences in exchange rates quoted in different markets. However, these opportunities are rare
and require significant capital and sophisticated trading infrastructure to execute trades quickly
and efficiently.

Interest Rate Parity
• Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is an economic theory that explains the relationship between
interest rates and exchange rates in international financial markets. According to this theory,
the interest rate differential between two countries should be equal to the expected change in
the exchange rate between their currencies.
• IRP assumes that investors are rational and seek to maximize their returns. Therefore, they
will invest their funds where they can earn the highest return, taking into account any
associated risks. In an open economy, where capital flows freely across borders, the interest
rates in different countries are linked through arbitrage.

• For example, if the interest rate in Country A is higher than that in Country B, investors will
move their funds from Country B to Country A to take advantage of the higher return. As a
result, the demand for Country A's currency will increase, leading to an appreciation in its
exchange rate relative to Country B's currency.
• IRP can be used to predict future exchange rate movements based on interest rate
differentials. However, in practice, other factors such as inflation, political stability, and
market sentiment also play a role in determining exchange rates.

Some basic interest rate parity sums:
1. Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIRP) Formula:
F = S(1+r)/(1+r*) where, F = Forward exchange rate S = Spot exchange rate r = Domestic interest
rate r* = Foreign interest rate
2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) Formula:
E(e) = i – i* where, E(e) = Expected exchange rate i = Domestic interest rate i* = Foreign interest
rate
3. Fisher Effect Formula:
i = r + π where, i = Nominal interest rate r = Real interest rate π = Inflation rate

These formulas can be used to calculate the expected exchange rate, forward exchange rate, and
interest rate differential between two currencies based on the interest rate parity theory.
However, it is important to note that the theory assumes perfect market conditions and
does not account for other factors that may affect exchange rates. Therefore, the actual exchange
rate movements may deviate from the predictions of interest rate parity in the short term.

Purchasing Power Parity
• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is an economic theory that suggests that in the long run, the
exchange rates between two currencies should equalize the purchasing power of each
currency. In other words, the same basket of goods and services should cost the same in two
different countries, once the exchange rate is taken into account.
• The PPP theory assumes that goods and services are tradable across borders and that prices
in each country reflect the underlying economic fundamentals, such as the cost of
production, taxes, and tariffs. If the prices of goods and services are lower in one country
than in another, the exchange rate should adjust to reflect this difference, making imports
more expensive and exports cheaper.

PPP can be expressed mathematically in two ways:
1. Absolute PPP:
P = S x P* where, P = Price of a basket of goods and services in the domestic currency S =
Exchange rate of domestic currency per unit of foreign currency P* = Price of a basket of goods and
services in the foreign currency
2. Relative PPP:
%ΔS = %Δ(P-P*) where, %ΔS = percentage change in exchange rate %Δ(P-P*) = percentage
change in the price differential between two countries
• The PPP theory can be used to compare living standards across different countries, and to forecast
long-term exchange rate movements based on differences in inflation rates. However, in practice, PPP
is not always observed due to market inefficiencies, such as trade barriers, transportation costs, and
taxes, which can cause price differences to persist in the short run.

Fisher's Parity
Fisher's Parity is an economic theory that relates the nominal interest rate, inflation rate,
and real interest rate. It suggests that the nominal interest rate in a country should be equal to
the real interest rate plus the expected inflation rate.
The Fisher Equation can be expressed as:
i = r + π where, i = Nominal interest rate r = Real interest rate π = Inflation rate

• According to Fisher's Parity, if the real interest rate and the expected inflation rate are held
constant, an increase in the nominal interest rate should lead to an increase in the exchange
rate of that country's currency, as investors will seek higher returns on their investments.
Conversely, a decrease in the nominal interest rate should lead to a decrease in the exchange
rate.
• Fisher's Parity can be used to explain the relationship between interest rates and exchange
rates, and to forecast future exchange rate movements based on expected changes in
inflation rates. However, in practice, other factors such as political stability, economic
growth, and market sentiment also play a role in determining exchange rates. Therefore,
Fisher's Parity should be used as a tool for analyzing long-term trends rather than for
making short-term predictions.

Forecasting Exchange Rates
Forecasting exchange rates can be a challenging task, as there are numerous factors that
can influence the value of a currency, including economic indicators, political events, and
market sentiment.
• Fundamental Analysis: This involves analyzing economic indicators such as interest rates,
inflation rates, and GDP growth rates to determine the value of a currency relative to other
currencies.
• Technical Analysis: This involves analyzing charts and patterns in historical exchange rate
data to identify trends and patterns that may indicate future movements in exchange rates.
• Sentiment Analysis: This involves analyzing news and social media to identify trends and
sentiment that may influence market movements and exchange rates.

• Machine Learning: This involves using algorithms and statistical models to analyze large
amounts of data and identify patterns and trends that may indicate future movements in
exchange rates.
• Expert Opinion: This involves consulting with experts in the field, such as economists and
currency traders, to get their opinions on future market movements and exchange rates.
• It's important to note that forecasting exchange rates is not an exact science, and no method
can guarantee accurate predictions. However, by using a combination of these methods and
staying up to date on market developments, traders and investors can make more informed
decisions about their currency trades.

Efficient Market Approach
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is an approach to financial market analysis that
suggests that markets are efficient and all available information is reflected in asset prices.
According to this theory, it is impossible to consistently achieve above-average returns by
analyzing financial data, because all relevant information is already reflected in the market
price of a security.

The efficient market approach is based on three assumptions:
• All investors have access to the same information: This means that all investors have access
to the same financial data and information, including news, financial reports, and other
relevant information.
• Investors are rational: This means that investors make decisions based on logical analysis
and rational thinking, and not on emotions or biases.
• Markets are efficient: This means that all relevant information is already reflected in the
market price of a security, and that any attempt to analyze financial data to achieve above-
average returns is futile.

• Based on these assumptions, the efficient market approach suggests that the best way to
invest is to buy a diversified portfolio of stocks or other securities, and to hold them for the
long-term. This approach assumes that any attempt to beat the market through analysis or
other means is unlikely to succeed over the long-term.
• However, critics of the efficient market approach argue that markets are not always efficient,
and that there are inefficiencies and market anomalies that can be exploited by savvy
investors. They suggest that it is possible to achieve above-average returns through careful
analysis of financial data and other information, although this approach may require
significant expertise and experience.

Fundamental Approach
The fundamental approach to investing is a method that involves analyzing the
financial health and performance of a company or security, in order to determine its intrinsic
value and potential for growth. This approach is based on the belief that the market may
sometimes misprice securities, and that careful analysis of a company's financials can help
investors identify opportunities for profit.
The fundamental approach is often used in value investing, which involves identifying
companies that are undervalued by the market and have strong fundamentals, and investing in
them for the long-term. However, it is important to note that even with careful analysis, there is
no guarantee of success, and market conditions and other factors can impact the performance of
even the strongest companies.

Fundamental approach - Steps
1. Analyzing financial statements: This involves examining a company's balance sheet, income
statement, and cash flow statement to get a sense of its financial health, profitability, and cash flow.
2. Examining economic and industry trends: This involves analyzing the broader economic and industry
trends that may impact the company's performance, including factors like interest rates, inflation, and
technological advancements.
3. Assessing management and strategy: This involves evaluating the company's management team and
their track record, as well as their strategies for growth and profitability.
4. Determining intrinsic value: Based on the analysis of the above factors, investors can determine an
intrinsic value for the company or security, and compare it to the current market price to determine if
the asset is undervalued or overvalued.

Technical Approach
The technical approach to investing is a method that involves analyzing past market
data, including price and volume information, in order to identify patterns and trends that may
indicate future price movements. This approach is based on the belief that market participants
exhibit certain behavioral patterns that can be identified and used to make profitable trades.
The technical approach is often used by traders who seek to profit from short-term
price movements, and can be applied to various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and
commodities. However, it is important to note that technical analysis is not foolproof, and can
be subject to false signals and whipsaws. Additionally, past performance is not always
indicative of future results, and market conditions can change rapidly and unexpectedly, which
can impact the effectiveness of technical analysis.

Technical approach - Steps
1. Identifying trends: This involves analyzing past price data to identify patterns and trends in
the market, such as support and resistance levels, trendlines, and chart patterns.
2. Analyzing indicators: This involves using technical indicators, such as moving averages,
relative strength index (RSI), and stochastic oscillator, to identify overbought and oversold
conditions, as well as potential trend reversals.
3. Setting entry and exit points: Based on the analysis of trends and indicators, investors can
determine optimal entry and exit points for a trade.
4. Managing risk: This involves setting stop-loss orders and other risk management strategies
to limit potential losses.

Global Financial Markets and Interest Rates
• Global financial markets are the networks of financial institutions, markets, and systems that
facilitate the movement of money and investments around the world. These markets include
stock exchanges, bond markets, foreign exchange markets, and commodity markets, among
others.
• Interest rates play a critical role in global financial markets, as they influence the borrowing
and lending decisions of individuals, businesses, and governments. Interest rates are
determined by a variety of factors, including central bank policies, inflation expectations,
and global economic conditions.

• Central banks are the primary drivers of interest rates in their respective countries. They use
monetary policy tools, such as adjusting the money supply or changing interest rates, to
manage inflation and support economic growth. For example, if a central bank wants to
stimulate the economy, it may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment.
Conversely, if the central bank wants to cool down an overheating economy, it may raise
interest rates to slow down borrowing and investment.
• Global economic conditions can also impact interest rates. For instance, if there is a global
recession, central banks may lower interest rates to boost economic activity. Conversely, if
there is an economic boom, central banks may raise interest rates to prevent inflation from
getting out of control.

• In general, higher interest rates imply that borrowing money is more expensive, which can slow down
economic growth and reduce inflationary pressures. Conversely, lower interest rates can make
borrowing money cheaper, which can stimulate economic activity and boost inflation.
• Interest rates can be set by a variety of institutions, including central banks, commercial banks, and
other financial institutions. Central banks, in particular, play a crucial role in setting interest rates
because they have the authority to control the money supply and influence economic growth.
• In many countries, the central bank sets a benchmark interest rate, such as the federal funds rate in the
United States or the overnight rate in Canada. This benchmark rate serves as a guide for other financial
institutions, which adjust their own interest rates in response to changes in the benchmark rate.

• Overall, interest rates play a vital role in global financial markets, influencing borrowing and
investment decisions and affecting the performance of various financial instruments.
• Interest rates refer to the cost of borrowing money or the reward for lending money, usually expressed
as a percentage of the total amount borrowed or lent. Interest rates can be either fixed or variable, and
they can be influenced by a range of factors, including inflation, economic growth, monetary policy,
and market conditions.
• Interest rates are a critical component of the global financial system, influencing borrowing and
lending decisions and affecting the performance of various financial instruments, such as bonds,
stocks, and currencies.

Concept & Types of Currency
Currency refers to the system of money used in a particular country or region. It is used as a medium of
exchange to buy goods and services and settle debts. The concept of currency has evolved over time, and
today there are several different types of currencies used around the world.
• Fiat currency: Fiat currency is a type of currency that is not backed by any physical commodity, such
as gold or silver. Instead, its value is derived solely from the government's declaration that it is legal
tender. Examples of fiat currencies include the US dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen.
• Commodity currency: Commodity currency is a type of currency whose value is directly linked to the
price of a specific commodity. For example, the Canadian dollar is often referred to as a commodity
currency because its value is closely tied to the price of oil and other natural resources.

• Cryptocurrency: Cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography to secure and
verify transactions and to control the creation of new units. Examples of cryptocurrencies include
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin.
• Hard currency: Hard currency is a type of currency that is widely accepted around the world and is
considered to be a stable store of value. Examples of hard currencies include the US dollar, the euro,
and the British pound.
• Soft currency: Soft currency is a type of currency that is less widely accepted and is considered to be
less stable than hard currency. Soft currencies are often used in countries with less developed
economies or unstable political situations. Examples of soft currencies include the Argentine peso and
the Zimbabwean dollar.

Convertibility of Currency
Currency convertibility refers to the ease with which a currency can be exchanged for
another currency or for other assets, such as gold or commodities. Convertibility is important
for international trade and investment because it allows investors and businesses to exchange
one currency for another without significant restrictions.
There are two types of currency convertibility:
• Fully convertible and
• Partially convertible.

1. Fully Convertible Currency: A fully convertible currency is one that can be freely
exchanged for any other currency or asset without any restrictions. This means that there are
no restrictions on the amount that can be converted or on the timing of the conversion. The
US dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen are examples of fully convertible currencies.
2. Partially Convertible Currency: A partially convertible currency is one that can be
exchanged for certain other currencies or assets, but with restrictions on the amount that can
be converted or on the timing of the conversion. For example, the Chinese yuan is a partially
convertible currency because there are restrictions on the amount that can be exchanged and
the timing of the conversion.

• In addition to fully and partially convertible currencies, there are also non-convertible
currencies, which cannot be exchanged for any other currency or asset. Non-convertible
currencies are typically used in countries with closed economies or in countries that are
subject to economic sanctions.
• Overall, currency convertibility is an important consideration for investors and businesses
engaging in international trade and investment. Fully convertible currencies offer greater
flexibility and ease of exchange, while partially convertible currencies may offer some
opportunities for exchange but with more restrictions. Non-convertible currencies may limit
investment opportunities and restrict trade.

Exchange rate - Nature, Types & Regimes
Exchange rate refers to the value of one currency in relation to another currency.
Exchange rates play a crucial role in international trade and investment because they determine
the cost of goods and services in different currencies and influence the flow of capital between
countries.
Exchange rates can be fixed, floating, managed, pegged, or dual, depending on the
nature of the regime governing the exchange rate. Each type of exchange rate has its own
advantages and disadvantages, and countries may choose different exchange rate regimes
based on their economic and political objectives.

Types of Exchange Rates
• Fixed exchange rate: A fixed exchange rate is a rate that is set and maintained by a country's
central bank. Under a fixed exchange rate regime, the central bank intervenes in the foreign
exchange market to buy or sell its own currency in order to maintain the fixed exchange rate.
The Chinese yuan is an example of a fixed exchange rate.
• Floating exchange rate: A floating exchange rate is a rate that is determined by the supply
and demand for a currency in the foreign exchange market. Under a floating exchange rate
regime, the exchange rate can fluctuate freely in response to market conditions. The US
dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen are examples of floating exchange rates.

• Managed exchange rate: A managed exchange rate is a rate that is influenced by the
government or central bank through intervention in the foreign exchange market. Under a
managed exchange rate regime, the exchange rate can fluctuate within a certain range or be
influenced by other factors, such as inflation or economic growth.
• Pegged exchange rate: A pegged exchange rate is a rate that is set in relation to another
currency, such as the US dollar or the euro. Under a pegged exchange rate regime, the
country's central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market to maintain the pegged
rate. The Hong Kong dollar is an example of a pegged exchange rate.
• Dual exchange rate: A dual exchange rate is a rate that applies to certain types of
transactions, such as trade transactions, while a different rate applies to other types of
transactions, such as capital transactions. Dual exchange rates are used in some countries to
encourage trade and limit capital outflows.

Demand and supply of foreign currency
The demand and supply of foreign currency refer to the quantity of a particular
currency that buyers (demand) and sellers (supply) are willing to trade at a particular exchange
rate.
The interaction between the demand and supply of foreign currency determines the
exchange rate between two currencies.

Demand for foreign currency: The demand for foreign currency is the amount of a foreign
currency that buyers are willing to purchase at a particular exchange rate. The demand for
foreign currency is derived from the demand for goods and services denominated in that
foreign currency. For example, if a U.S. company wants to buy goods from a Japanese company
and pay in Japanese yen, it will have to buy yen in the foreign exchange market, thereby
increasing the demand for yen. Other factors that can affect the demand for foreign currency
include interest rates, economic growth rates, political stability, and inflation rates.

Supply of foreign currency: The supply of foreign currency is the amount of a foreign currency
that sellers are willing to sell at a particular exchange rate. The supply of foreign currency is
derived from the supply of goods and services denominated in that foreign currency. For
example, if a Japanese company sells goods to a U.S. company and receives payment in U.S.
dollars, it will have to sell the dollars in the foreign exchange market, thereby increasing the
supply of dollars. Other factors that can affect the supply of foreign currency include interest
rates, economic growth rates, political stability, and inflation rates.

• The exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another currency, and it is
determined by the interaction between the demand and supply of foreign currency. If the
demand for a particular currency exceeds the supply, the exchange rate will appreciate
(strengthen) because buyers will be willing to pay more for that currency. Conversely, if the
supply of a particular currency exceeds the demand, the exchange rate will depreciate
(weaken) because sellers will have to lower their asking price in order to sell their currency.
• Overall, the demand and supply of foreign currency are important factors that affect the
exchange rate between two currencies, and they are influenced by a wide range of economic,
political, and financial factors.

Thank You

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