US recent economic indicators are mixed but nothing to really worry right now. The real problem is Europe which is in deep trouble and in high risk of a deflationary spiral.

1. http://marketsandbeyond.blogspot.com/
http://www.pcgwm.com/
US economy is OK and Europe is in a deep mess
Latest data from the US economy points towards a weakening growth and the employment
numbers were particularly weak: 411,000 out of 431,000 new jobs were temporary ones
for the 2010 census. I view this report as non-significant and it does not change much the
fundamentals (I don't care whether the numbers were much worse thane expected by
economists - Goldman's ones in particular who were at +600.000: they must have made
some nice trading profits by going short before the release).
The Commercial and Industrial Loans at All Commercial Banks, that I follow closely,
improved for the first time since November 2008 at +USD 6.5 billion in April. This
number is significant. On 23rd March, I was indicating that we were at or near a
trough for banks' lending: this confirms my view.
Gowth will not continue at the annualized pace witnessed at the end of 2009, but I expect
it to be in the 2.5 - 3% region for 2010 even if H2 will be slower due to the weakening euro
that will hurt exports and a domestic situation that remains fragile.
The sick man of the world economy is Europe. Things are really getting ugly here.
Politicians are very much behind the curve of events blinded by their dogmatic view of the
construction of the euro-zone and the EU as a whole. Very difficult for them to admit they
have been dead wrong for the past 20 years. It is much easier to attack markets and point
the finger at scapegoats.
Yesterday's cancellation of a dinner between the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, and
the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is to me a confirmation of the deep rift between
the two engines of the European construction. Germans had enough.
I will write quite extensively on Europe in the coming days.
Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
St. Louis FED: Commercial and Industrial Loans at All Commercial Banks
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BUSLOANS
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