The session was focused on understanding the key priorities for Levelling Up and what could be the key challenges & opportunities for the Comprehensive Spending Review, with a London perspective from the GLA and the national perspective from the Institute for Government With Graham Atkins, Associate Director, Institute for Government and Dr Michelle Reeves, Senior Manager - Policy and Programmes, Strategy Team, City Intelligence Unit, GLA. The presentations were followed by a discussion on what key issues for councils and public services in London.

1. Graham Atkins
Institute for Government
2021 Spending Review –
implications for local authorities
7 OCTOBER 2021

2. 1. Context
2. 2021 Spending Review
3. Implications for local
authorities

3. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
Public services and the pandemic
Slide 3
7 October 2021
• Covid has prompted new ways of working
• Recruitment and retention problems temporarily eased
• Covid has created new demands
• Services will cost more to run because of Covid
• Backlogs have built up in many services

4. © Institute for Government
Spending reviews set ‘DEL’ budgets
7 October 2021

5. © Institute for Government
Spending reviews since 1998
7 October 2021

6. © Institute for Government
Spending reviews set different
amounts of departments’ budgets
7 October 2021

7. 1. Context
2. 2021 Spending Review
3. Implications for local
authorities

8. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
This spending review will not be as
tight as 2010 or 2015
Slide 8
7 October 2021
Source: IfG calculations based on Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury

9. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
Most decisions have already been
taken
Slide 9
7 October 2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Source: IfG calculations based on Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury

10. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
Most decisions have already been
taken
Slide 10
7 October 2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
NHS England DHSC other (inc social care grants) NHS England (barnett consequentials)
Source: IfG calculations based on Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury

11. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
Most decisions have already been
taken
Slide 11
7 October 2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
NHS England DHSC other (inc social care grants) Schools NHS England (barnett consequentials)
Source: IfG calculations based on Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury

12. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
Most decisions have already been
taken
Slide 12
7 October 2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Unprotected spending NHS England DHSC other (inc social care grants) Schools Defence Aid NHS England (barnett consequentials)
Source: IfG calculations based on Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury

13. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
Spending plans are tight for
unprotected areas
Slide 13
7 October 2021
Resource departmental expenditure limits (% change in real terms after 2021/22)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Total spending NHS England Schools
Defence Aid Unprotected spending
Source: IfG calculations based on Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury figures

14. 1. Context
2. 2021 Spending Review
3. Implications for local
authorities

15. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
Implications
Slide 15
7 October 2021
• Spending increases likely to be backloaded
• Need for prioritisation
• Building on pandemic changes

16. © Institute for Government
Page 1 of 1
Sources
• IfG/CIPFA, Performance Tracker (next edition to be published 18 Oct 2021!):
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/our-work/performance-tracker
• IfG, The 2019 Spending Review: how to run it well,
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/2019-spending-review
• IfG, 2021 Spending Review explainer:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/spending-public-services
• Pope T, Bring forward funding to ease Covid disruption in public services:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/funding-covid-public-services
Slide 16
7 October 2021