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カタンの流れを検証してみた
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Junya Hayashi
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サイカ社内の8月ドヤ会資料です。
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カタンの流れを検証してみた
1.
カタンの流れを 検証してみた 株式会社サイカ 林 淳哉
2.
カタンをご存知で .. (ry
3.
ある日のFacebook…
4.
5.
出目の「流れ」みたいなのあるじゃないですか。 あれを統計的に解析できませんかね
6.
生産力の2倍算出したら 流れ来てると思って いいよね?
7.
検証してみた
8.
サイコロを転がし、
9.
生産力計測して、
10.
装飾
11.
キタァーー! デモ
12.
流れは存在します! ledmonster/joking.bacon.catan
13.
数学的にはどうだろう?
14.
ポアソン分布 • サイコロの出目は2項分布 • 2項分布はポアソン分布で 近似できる •
確率 p の事象が n 回中何回 発生するかは、 λ = np のポアソン分布に従う
15.
流れに乗る確率 出目 λ k<=λ/2
k>=2λ k>=3λ 7 6 15.1% 2.0% 0.0% 6, 8 5 12.5% 3.2% 0.0% 5, 9 4 23.8% 5.1% 0.1% 4, 10 3 19.9% 8.4% 0.4% 3, 11 2 40.6% 14.3% 1.7% 2, 12 1 36.8% 26.4% 8.0%
16.
生産力の低い目も 流れに乗ると強い!
17.
まとめ • Bacon.js いいね! •
ポアソン分布は覚えて帰ってください • 流れがあると思った?・・・ポジティブですね
18.
開拓民になろう!!
Download now