The Story of One City. Occupation and Liberation of Severodonetsk
December-2013-FP-DFS
1. Foreign Policy,
Defence&Security
1
Research Program on:
FOREIGN POLICY, DEFENCE & SECURITY
INSTITUTEOF INTERNATIONALRELATIONS(I.I.R.)
CENTER OF RUSSIA,EURASIA&SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
(CERESE)
Athens2013
VOL.2,
December,
2013
3. Foreign Policy,
Defense&Security
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Ukrainian politics after the European Union Summit in Vilnius
On the 21th of November 2013 the Ukrainian government decree suspended the
process of preparations for signing of the Association Agreement and Comprehensive
Free Trade Agreement with the European Union.According to the Government, the
decision had been taken in order to ensure national security and to elaborate a set of
measures that needed to be considered more deeply. Also, another reason of this action
is to recover the lost production volume of the trade with Russia and other countries –
members of the CIS.1
Over the last months, Ukraine had come under intense economic and political
pressure from Russia not to sign EU deal at the summit. As the Ukrainian Deputy Prime
Minister Yuriy Boiko stated in Kyiv, "The Ukrainian government will suspend the
negotiations for signing the Association Agreement with the EU until when the drop in
industrial production and our relations with CIS countries are compensated by the
European market, otherwise our country's economy will sustain serious damage."2
According to the Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov his government‟s
decision was caused also from the extremely harsh conditions of the International
Monetary Fund‟s loan (presented by the IMF on 20 November 2013), which included
big budget cuts and a 40% increase in gas bills.3
The IMF clarified that it was not insisting on a single-stage increase in natural gas
tariffs in Ukraine by 40%. It recommended that they would be gradually raised to an
economically justified level while compensating the poorest segments of the population
for the losses from such an increase by strengthening targeted social assistance. The
same day IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine Jerome Vacher stated that this
particular IMF loan of $4 billion would be linked with "policy, which would remove
1
Європейська правда “Азаров відмовився від угоди про Асоціацію з ЄС”, 21 November
2013 http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2013/11/21/7002657/ (accessed 26 December 2013)
2
Interfax–Ukraine “Ukraine to resume preparing agreement with EU when compensation for
production drop found – Boiko”, 21 November 2013
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/176144.html (accessed 26 December 2013)
3
International New York Times “Ukraine blames I.M.F. for halt to Agreements with Europe”,
22 November 2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/23/world/europe/ukraine-blames-imf-for-
collapse-of-accord-with-european-union.html?_r=0 (accessed 26 December 2013)
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disproportions and stimulated growth".4
Ukraine was actively negotiating both with the EU and Russia until Ukrainian
Prime Minister proposed EU and Russia form a trilateral commission to study the issues,
thereby emphasizing that Ukraine will not take a decision without Russia.
Together with the decision to suspend the process of signing the Association
Agreement, Prime Minister Azarov promised to restore an active dialogue with the
Russian Federation and other countries of the Customs Union in order to revive and
strengthen their trade and economic relations. On the other hand, President Yanukovych
who attended the EU summit in Vilnius and high level EU officials made a signal that
they still want to sign the Association Agreement but at a later date.5
The decision of the Ukrainian government to suspend preparations for signing the
Association Agreement met a spontaneous protest which was erupted in the capital of
Ukraine. The demonstrations begun on the night of 21 November 2013, they were
peaceful and in support of the Association. During the next weeks thousands of students
in Kiev walked out of their classes and marched through the city center to join the pro-
European rally in the capital‟s Independence Square. They wanted their collective voice
to be heard by the government, no party symbols were reported, only Ukrainian flags
and European Union flags.
On the 29th of November, when it became officially known that Ukraine did not
sign the Association Agreement at the Eastern Partnership Summit, the demonstration
wave grew and more people went to the streets all over Ukraine. The biggest numbers of
protesters were in Kiev (raised up to 10,000) and in Lviv (up to 20,000).6
Protesters
wanted to express their disagreement and their frustration for the current Government.
They wanted the government at least to reassess the situation and determine a new date
for the signing of the Association Agreement. Also, the Russian pressure and the
Ukrainian rapprochement with Moscow and the Custom Union are unacceptable
4
Interfax-Ukraine “IMF not insisting on single-stage increase in tariffs, says resident
representative in Ukraine”, 07 December 2013
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/179958.html (accessed 26 December 2013)
5
Euronews “EU and Ukraine say „door still open‟ for future trade pact”, 29 November
2013http://www.euronews.com/2013/11/29/eu-and-ukraine-say-door-still-open-for-future-trade-
pact/(accessed 26 December 2013)
6
News 7 “Ukraine opposition demands leader resign after EU snub”, 30 November 2013
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/20081107/ukraine-opposition-demands-leader-resign-after-
eu-snub/(accessed 26 December 2013)
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according to the majority of the protesters.7
The demonstrations have brought to the forefront a new generation of protesters
that grew up in an independent Ukraine and have faint memories of the Soviet Union.
They see themselves as Europeans and they are mostly disillusioned with politics. The
most important petitions that they have are reform of the judicial system and of the law
enforcement and especially fight against corruption. It's a revolution of young people,
people who are active in social media, who are mobile, have university degrees, but who
do not believe in a successful future of Ukraine due to the existing regime. 8
The fresh wave of protests has been dubbed "EuroMaidan." The demonstrators are
united by a common desire for European integration and a wish for internal changes in
the country although they have differences over the methods. Students and other mostly
young demonstrators are conducting a civic protest that they don't want to see hijacked
by political parties. On the other side, older opposition activists describe the rallies as
political and have brandished party banners and flags.
Unlike the 2004 Orange Revolution, this Maidan of 2013 is largely apolitical due
to a strong mistrust toward politicians, and its driving force is the creative youth. What
they are talking about is the European choice, not the victory of any political force in
Ukraine.9
At the night of the 30th
of November a special police unit, Berkut, armed with
batons, stun grenades, and tear gas, attacked and dispersed all protesters from the
Maidan. The police attacked not only the protesters (most of them didn't resist) but also
other civilians in the vicinity of the Independence Square and beat unarmed people. As a
result of the militia raid, a lot of injured people -mostly students- had to be hospitalized.
The violence from the government forces provoked outrage in all regions of
Ukraine, not only western and central, but also in eastern - Kharkov, Donetsk, in Crimea
and in the city of Odessa. The level of the protests was raised and the petition to punish
the responsible for the police raid was supported during the next days in Kiev by
7
Euronews “Ukraine: tension in Kyiv as pro and anti government protesters hold rallies” 29
November 2013 http://www.euronews.com/2013/11/29/ukraine-tension-in-kyiv-as-pro-and-anti-
government-protesters-hold-rallies/(accessed 26 December 2013)
8
KyivPost “Euromaidan rallies in Ukraine” 10 December 2013
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/euromaidan-rallies-in-ukraine-live-updates-
332341.html (accessed 26 December 2013)
9
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-protests-generational-divide/25182439.html (accessed 26
December 2013)
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800,000 people at the main Square of the Capital. The ordinary people who are facing
corruption and lawlessness in their everyday life transformed the Euromaidan into a
“Revolution of dignity” with main aim – resignation of the government and President
Yanukovych.
On the 10th
of December President Viktor Yanukovych stated that "Calls for a
revolution pose a threat to national security". 10
Definitely, Yanukovych was not
expecting that his change of vector in the foreign policy will have such a reaction in the
masses. Especially when his main opponent Yulia Tymoshenko is still in prison and not
at the Maidan as she was in 2004. The official behavior of the President is a kind of
dismissive; he is not paying attention on the demonstrators and their petitions. In this
situation it is difficult to predict in what it could turn, especially knowing that in one
year the President elections are scheduled in Ukraine.
As protests continued Viktor Yanykovich went to the planned sixth Russian-
Ukrainian interstate commission on 17 December in Moscow.According to President
Yanukovych the trade situation between Russia and Ukraine required urgent intervention
and coordination with other CIS countries is also needed. Additionally, he stated that
Ukraine and Russia should strengthen their cross-border and inter-regional cooperation
"which create convenient conditions for the people".11
The same day Vladimir Putin and
Viktor Yanukovych signed the Ukrainian–Russian action plan. This consisted of the
Russian National Wealth Fund buying $15 billion of Ukrainian Eurobonds and the cost
of Russian natural gas supplied to Ukraine lowered to $268 per 1,000 cubic meters (this
price was $400).12
As part of the action plan Russia committed itself to the restoration of
its customs regulations on imports from Ukraine that had existed before. According to
the President Putin and Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov this deal
was "not tied to any conditions" and Ukraine's possible accession to the Customs Union
of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia was not addressed. Peskov also added "it is our
principled position not to interfere in Ukraine's affairs" and accused other countries of
10
Aldjazeera “Ukraine president slams calls for revolution”, 10 December 2013
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2013/12/20131210163821530248.html (accessed 26
December 2013)
11
Interfax-Ukraine “Yanukovych: Kyiv, Moscow shouldn‟t replay past mistakes”, 17 December
2013http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/182486.html(accessed 26 December 2013)
12
BBC News Europe “Russia offers Ukraine major economic assistance”, 17 December 2013
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25411118(accessed 26 December 2013)
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doing the opposite”.13
Both of the latest measures are intended to ease Ukraine's financial woes at a time
when the country is struggling to avoid default but certainly appear to tie Ukraine closer
to Russia, and helps the Kremlin to achieve its geopolitical aim of preventing Ukraine
from drifting from its orbit.
In response to the agreement, the opposition parties blocked the Parliament in
order to defer its ratification since they quickly denounced the plan. 14
Approximately
50,000 people continued their protest on Maidan Nezalezhnosti where opposition leader
Vitaly Klitschko told the crowd “He [President Yanukovich] has given up Ukraine‟s
national interests, given up independence and prospects for a better life for every
Ukrainian”.15
The opposition leaders vowed to continue their protests, if necessary
through New Year and Orthodox Christmas (celebrated on 7 January annually), they
repeated their demands for the firing of the second Azarov Governmentalong with early
presidential and parliamentary elections.
Whether the Russian-Ukrainian pact is mutually beneficial will depend on the
implementation of the commitments of both sides and on the feasibility of the money for
the Ukrainian economic development.
With this decision Yanukovych showed that he is weak without Russian support,
and he knows that his chances at the next Presidential elections are not high. If he would
sign the Association Agreement with the EU he would lose his electorate in the eastern
and southern parts of Ukraine and besides the pressure about setting free Yulia
Timoshenko can rise up to her full release, which is very risky for his own future.
He also understands that the EU and IMF conditions would influence his form of
government and the main state of affairs in the economic and judicial systems there by
threatening the poor but “stable” condition in Ukraine which would cost him the second
Presidential term or even more – his own family security (depends on who will be the
13
Interfax- Ukraine “Putin‟s spokesman:Ukraine‟s accession to Custom Union was not
discussed at Tuesday meeting”, 17 December 2013
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/182488.html(accessed 26 December 2013)
14
Insider ”ОпозиціязаблокувалаВРбщобнедопуститиратифікаціїугодзРосієюб - Яценюк”,
17 December 2013 http://www.theinsider.com.ua/politics/52b087463d708/(accessed 26
December 2013)
15
The Irish Times “Ukraine opposition leader condemns Russia bailout deal”, 17 December
2013 http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-opposition-leader-condemns-russia-
bailout-deal-1.1630987(accessed 26 December 2013)
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next President).
Namely, the turn to Russia is a pragmatic choice for Yanukovych to stay in
presidency after March 2015.The people who are demonstrating now will continue to
associate poverty, mismanagement and corruption with Russia and the Customs Union –
attempting to go back to Soviet Union with Russia to be the main state.
Politically, Maidan failed in forcing Yanukovych and his government into
resignation until now. But it is playing an important role in developing of the Ukrainian
identity and the coming year is going to reveal whether these demonstrations will bring
pivotal changes in the Ukrainian society and politics.
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Whisperings of an inhuman trade: The Kosovo16
organ harvesting case
In November 2008 Yilman Altun, a 23 year old Turkish man, fainted in front of
customs officials while he waited for his flight to Istanbul. When officials lifted his shirt,
they discovered a fresh scar on his abdomen and at the same time they uncovered the
scandal of the Medicus clinic in Pristina. In a lurid way the settlement of this case might
prove to be the key in one of the most important issues in the Belgrade – Pristina
dialogue on the future fate of Kosovo, concerning the fate of 1861 people who remain
missing since the end of the Kosovo conflict in 1999.
The Medicus clinic's director, urologist Lutfi Dervishi, his son Arban and three
other people were sentenced for 1 to 8 years in prison for organized crime and human
trafficking, while two more foreigners Turkish doctor Yusuf Sonmez, arrested in Turkey
in January 2011 and Israeli citizen with turkish origins Moshe Harel were also involved.
During the trial it was proven that the defendants were systematically removing body-
organs of poor victims from Russia, Moldova, Kazakhstan and Turkey in exchange for
payment aiming to sell them in rich Israeli citizens.
The nature of this case was directly relevant to the allegations concerning organ
harvesting that appeared in the book “The Hunt: Me and the War Criminals”, written
back in 2008 by Carla Del Ponte, a former chief prosecutor for the International
Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. In her book Del Ponte claims she received
information saying that about 300 non-Albanians17
were kidnapped and transferred to
Albania in 1999 where their organs were extracted. The claims however were not
supported by evidence and consequently caused serious criticism by Albanian leadership
and international observers.18
No matter Del Ponte‟s incapability to prove her sayings she
was not the first person who talked about organ trafficking in Kosovo.
In February 2004 a combined team of UN and ICTY investigators visited a farm-
house in Rripë, an ill famed village located near the Albanian town of Burrel. The
original light-yellow color of the farmhouse according to witness testimonies will be the
16
All reference to Kosovo, whether to the territory, institutions or population, in this text shall be
understood in full compliance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244 and
without prejudice to the status of Kosovo.
17
The victims were supposed to be mainly Serbs but on 27 December 2009, Serbian prosecutor
Vladimir Vukčević announced that among them were also Russian and Czech citizens.
18
The Telegraph, Harry de Quetteville - Malcom Moore, Serb prisoners “were stripped of their
organs in Kosovo war”, 11 April 2008, (accessed 26 December 2013).
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reason for the case to be widely known as “Yellow House”.19
The investigation was
organized after Michael Montgomery, an American journalist, submitted the results of
his research at the competent department of the United Nations Interim Administration
Mission in Kosovo. Montgomery based his research on the testimonies of some ex-KLA
soldiers whose sayings could trigger suspicions about organ trafficking. The
investigation had been partially fruitful as the combined team managed to discover
traces of blood and medical surgical equipment.20
A part of the basement floor, full of
cracks and notably different from the other of the house attracted investigators‟ interest.
According to witnesses some local graves should be also checked. The villagers who
failed to provide satisfactory explanations about the odd findings refused to allow any
excavations.21
With insufficient evidence and lacking the mandate to investigate post
war crimes the UN investigator had do shelve the research.
Whilethe Albanianprosecutionstoppedthe investigationin 2005, the
corresponding Serbianauthoritycontinuedeffortsto highlightthe case.22
In 2008 Serbia‟s
war crimes prosecutor spokesman Bruno Vekaric23
as also Politika, Večernje
Novosti and Kurir journalsclaimed that about 40 mental patients from a Special Care
Institute in Štimlje could be victims of organ harvesting. Following these claims
however, the Humanitarian Law Center investigated the deaths of two named victims
and concluded that these people died of natural causes.
On 21 March 2008, the Serbian side claimed having enough evidence in order to
prepare a report on the investigation for Council of Europe Rapporteur Dick Marty and
demanded Albania‟s cooperation.24
On 14 November, UNMIK invited Serbian war
crimes prosecutors to join with them in a new investigation process. Six days later,
19
By the time investigators were there the house had been repainted bright white.
20
Namely, European Union Probing Balkan Organ Trade, By Associated Press, “bloodstains,
syringes, empty bottles of muscle relaxant, surgical gear and other material”, updated 5 March
2009, (accessed 26 December 2013). http://www.nbcnews.com/id/30541817/ns/world_news-
europe#.Ur2_BziTvIU
21
Der Spiegel, Flottau Renate, Das Haus am Ende der Welt,22 September 2008, (accessed 26
December 2013). http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-60403594.html
22
B92, Fonet Negeljni Telegraf, 300 hostages had organs removed, 6 November 2008,
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/crimes-article.php?yyyy=2008&mm=11&dd=06&nav_id=54791
23
NBC, By Associated Press, Where mental patients organ trafficking victims?, updated 13
November 2008, (accessed 26 December 2013).
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/27700612/ns/health-health_care/t/were-mental-patients-organ-
trafficking-victims/#.UrrjfTiTvIU
24
B92, Serbia cooperating on organ trafficking probe, 21 November 2008, (accessed 26
December 2013). http://www.b92.net/eng/news/crimes-
article.php?yyyy=2008&mm=11&dd=21&nav_id=55181
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ICTY chief Serge Brammertz provided Serbian authorities evidence concerning Yellow
House while a report of the International Court was published stating that a part of the
allegations, concerning that case, have been confirmed during the investigation. On the
other side Albania refused that there was an organ trafficking issue.25
The publication of Del Ponte‟s book later in autumn raised the interest on the
organ harvesting issue and despite the critics finally attracted the attention of the Council
of Europe. As a result Council of Europe Special Rapporteur Dick Marty received the
following year a mandate to investigate the case.
Rapporteur Marty presented to the Council of Europe Foreign Relations
Committee his report entitled "Inhuman treatment of people and illicit trafficking in
human organs in Kosovo" on 16 December 2010. The report contained serious
allegations. According to this new research Serbians and Kosovars were held prisoners
in Albania by KLA and were subjected to inhuman and degrading treatment, before
ultimately disappearing. The report also claims that some of them were murdered for
their kidneys. Moreover,Kosovar political leader Hashim Thaçi appeared to be the head
of a criminal ring involved in weapon smuggling, drug trade, assassinations, beatings
and human organs trafficking. Thaçi's "Drenica Group"26
appeared to hold prisoners
with unknown fate, in several facilities located in Albania. In this report EULEX and
UNMIK are also criticized of ignoring war and post-war crimes for the sake of
preserving regional stability. The Kosovo government and even Thaçi‟s political
opponents denounced the accusations as baseless.2728
Hashim Thaçi‟s involvement in
organized crime has been also supported by an article by the daily Guardian, published
25
B92,UNMIK to investigate “yellow house”, 14 November 2008, (accessed 26 December
2013).
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/crimes-article.php?yyyy=2008&mm=11&dd=14&nav_id=55007
Moreover, in June 2009, three Serbs were arrested by the police of Kosovo accused of offering
money in exchange for statements falsely confirming organ trading and to mediators finding
such information. Finally the case was dismissed by EULEX.
26
Drenica Group led by Hashim Thaci described in the report as the most extreme group. It was
the KLA‟s dominant function. Senior KLA figures from this group hold important positions in
Kosovo's post war leadership.
27
Reuters, Adam Tanner and Fatos Bytyci, Kosovo says draft report on PM Thaci is baseless, 14
December 2010, (accessed 26 December 2013).
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/12/14/us-kosovo-thaci-idUSTRE6BD50G20101214
28
The complete draft-report: Parliamentary Assembly, Committee on Legal Affairs and Human
Rights, Inhuman treatment of people and illicit trafficking in human organs in Kosovo, Draft
report, Rapporteur: Mr Dick Marty, Switzerland, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for
Europe, 12 December 2010, (accessed 26 December 2013).
http://assembly.coe.int/ASP/APFeaturesManager/defaultArtSiteView.asp?ID=964
12. Foreign Policy,
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on 24 January 2011, based on leaked secret KFOR intelligence report.29
Other media
came with more leaked documents stating that UN knew about organ trafficking in
postwar Kosovo as early as 2003.30
Soon more witnesses willing to testify appeared.
However, in early January, Dick Marty tried to moderate the tensionby clarifying that he
did not claim that Prime Minister Thaçi himself was directly involved. Following the
events, European Union set up her own investigation under the lead of prosecutor John
Clint Williamson. Albanian government and Kosovar leadership permitted an EU
investigation on Albanian territory although they continued to dismiss Marty report and
organ trafficking allegations as part of a Serbian and Russian conspiracy aiming to
destabilize the fledgling Kosovo.
Medicus clinic case is therefore important as it is the first time that the
allegations about organ trafficking in Kosovo have been officially confirmed and
proved. It must me noted though that the relation of this case with KLA,31
Thaçi's
"Drenica Group" and Kosovar leadership has not been proved. Even if the allegations
concerning the Yellow House and the other prison facilities are true, the number of the
people that have been kept and murdered there and their relation with the missing 1861
remains uncertain. Never the less, the unwillingness of the Albanian side to help the
investigation is clear while EULEX, UNMIK and Western powers in general are also
presented in reports and leaked documents as reluctant to contribute to the unraveling of
the alleged criminal activities of human rights and war crime nature. Instead Serbia and
her main ally Russia are eager to exercise political pressure in order the case to be
resolved. This contrast cannot be sufficiently explained in terms of national interest and
trust-mistrust in the validity of the allegations.
NATO based its interference in Yugoslavia on humanitarian grounds, namely the
misuse of Kosovar-Albanians by Serbian authorities. Although today the Serbian cruelty
29
The Guardian, Paul Lewis, Report identifies Hashim Thaci as 'big fish' in organized crime, 24
January 2011, (accessed 26 December 2013).
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jan/24/hashim-thaci-kosovo-organised-crime
30
A censored version of the UN document can be found in the following ling:
http://www.france24.com/static/infographies/documents/kosovo_house_2003.pdf
redirected from France 24,A classified document obtained by FRANCE 24 suggests the United
Nations knew about organ trafficking in postwar Kosovo as early as 2003, five years before
prosecutors in The Hague first raised the issue, 16 February 2011, (accessed 26 December
2013).
http://www.france24.com/en/20110216-un-confidential-document-kosovo-organ-trafficking-
investigation-unmik-eulex/
31
Kosovo Liberation Army. Also known as UÇK (Albanian: Ushtria Çlirimtare e Kosovës)
13. Foreign Policy,
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during Kosovo conflict is widely accepted as proven fact, atrocities committed by KLA
have been hushed. Even if there was no balance in the violence exercised by the two
opponents before and during the war, the disclosure of any Serbian victims could
influence negatively US and EU public opinion as well as unconvinced allies like
Greece and result in a restriction to alliance freedom of act during the war. Moreover,
the day that followed the end of war saw the KLA leadership ontop of the
politicalsceneof Kosovo. Ex-KLA-warlords were now negotiating in luxurious halls with
the honorable leaders of the West while pressure have been exercised for long in order
this to expand to counterparts of Serbia and Russia. With the final status of Kosovo
region still undetermined, any possible disclosureof aninvolvementof Kosovar political
leadersand former KLA chieftains in organizedatrocitiesand criminalnetworks would
affect their prestige and provide Serbia and her allies a perfect breakthrough from any
unpleasant negotiations. In a zero sum game, like the one played in Kosovo, a Serbia
with greater confidence would be a development able to significantly influenceandeven
completely reversethepolitical equilibrium.
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The South Stream project: A scene of geopolitical games
The construction of South Stream in Serbia, started officially in the 25th
of
November 2013, right after Bulgaria‟s part started. The pipeline, which cost €17 billion
and will stretch for 2400km, will deliver natural gas to Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary,
Slovenia, and Austria and Italy from one branch and Croatia, FYROM, Greece and
Turkey from the other branch32
. The project is backed by the Russian energy company
“Gazprom”, with the goal of establishing Russia, and Gazprom itself, as a strong force in
energy trade with European consumers through the Black Sea and the Balkans.
The importance of the South Stream pipeline lies in the fact that such a big
investment will transform the Balkan states into a modern Eurasian energy crossroad of
great significance for Europe‟s energy security and for Russia‟s economic development.
The European Commission, though, asked to renegotiate South Stream contracts for six
EU member states and candidate country Serbia, as these contracts allegedly “violate EU
law”33
. Will this move from the EU achieve energy security via a stable supply of
Russian natural gas, while simultaneously balancing Russia‟s political and economic
influence?
The disputes between Gazprom and Ukraine, which are part of the general
diplomatic tension between Russia and Ukraine, have caused many times in the recent
years the disruption of natural gas‟ supply to the EU‟ countries34
, more often during
winter periods. The first design of South Stream‟s route included crossing the Ukrainian
exclusive economic zone, but due to the gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine, the
pipeline is instead crossing Turkey‟s waters35
. Bulgaria and Serbia seem to benefit a lot
from the unstable relations of Moscow with Kiev, as Russia would like to rely more on
them and create a common interests‟ zone, which is exactly what is lacking from the
Russian relations with the EU. The South Stream project is usually seen as an alternative
weapon of the Russian energy policy serving to connect Russia directly with the EU
32
“South Stream advancing steadily”, Gazprom, 14 November 2013,
http://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2013/november/article177555/
33
“South Stream must be renegotiated – Commission”, European Voice, 5 December 2013,
http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2013/december/south-stream-must-be-renegotiated-
commission/78982.aspx
34
“Russia – Ukraine gas crisis intensifies as all European supplies are cut off”, The Guardian, 7 January
2009, http://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jan/07/gas-ukraine
35
“Russian South Stream to become a major rival of Nabucco – expert”, The Voice of Russia, 25
November 2013, http://voiceofrussia.com/2013_11_25/Russian-South-Stream-to-become-a-major-rival-
of-Nabucco-expert-5395/
15. Foreign Policy,
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energy markets avoiding Ukraine, thus minimizing the Ukrainian diplomatic threats
against the Russian interests.
The EU, in order to lessen the dependence on Moscow, sponsored the considered
rival of South Stream pipeline, the Nabucco project, which was planned to transport gas
from the Caspian Sea to Europe, avoiding passing by Russian territory36
. The Nabucco
pipeline, which is considered by many a political project, has been cancelled during the
summer of 2013, “due to a combination of geopolitical factors and business
considerations”37
; reasons that imply the victory of the Russian policy against Nabucco.
Russia launched the Nord Stream in 201138
, which along with the South Stream project,
secure the maintenance of Russian energy supply to Europe, via an integrated energy
supply network, without facing supply risks due to unfriendly transit countries. The only
possible rival of the Russian energy plans could be the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline39
, but this
is not about to happen in the near future.
After the Ukrainian government‟s unexpected decision not to sign the
Association Agreement, the EU has refused to re-initiate the negotiations, denying the
Ukrainian prime minister‟s demands and neglecting their own long-time efforts to
improve their bond with Ukraine. The Ukrainian Prime Minister, Mykola Azarov, when
asked about the prospect of signing the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement said that his
country‟s relations with European Union depend on the stance of the European
Commission, since he has proposed the EU to hold trilateral talks with the participation
of Russia: "Russia has agreed to this, now the matter depends on the European
Commission,"Azarov said The unexplained position of Europeans may be connected to
their fears that if they insist on achieving lower tights with Ukraine, Russia may cut the
gas supplies to Europe, in order to block a possible alliance between these two parts. As
a result, European Union would rather sacrifice the idea of improved relations with
Ukraine, to ensure that it maintains supplies with Russia.
European Union claims that Serbia, Croatia, Greece, Bulgaria, Hungary, Austria
36
“Russian gas pipeline could doom Europe’s Nabucco plan”, Reuters, 28 May 2013,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/28/eu-gas-idUSL6N0E41JX20130528
37
“European Union’s Nabucco pipeline project aborted”, World Socialist Web Site, 13 July 2013,
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/07/13/nabu-j13.html
38
Nord Stream is an offshore natural gas pipeline from Vyborg in Russia to Greifswald in Germany. It is
owned and operated by Nord Stream AG. The project, which was promoted by the government of Russia
and agreed to by the government of Germany.
39
Trans Adriatic Pipeline is a pipeline project to transport natural gas from the Caspian sea (Azerbaijan),
starting from Greece via Albania and the Adriatic Sea to Italy and further to Western Europe.
16. Foreign Policy,
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16
and Slovenia should cancel their bilateral deals with Russia and “Gazprom” because
they don‟t adhere to the European Union‟s “third energy package”40
, although some of
them were signed before the package‟s adoption. According to the European
Commission, these agreements aren‟t in line with the EU law, which determines that a
pipeline operator-country, like Russia‟s Gazprom, cannot simultaneously function as a
gas supplier in monopoly 41
. European Commission won‟t stop the construction of the
pipeline, as it has no right to do this, however considers whether or not to authorize the
transportation of gas through these pipelines. This would mean losses of billion euros,
first of all for the Russians and on a second level all the related countries, which due to
their obligation to comply with the EU policies, will become less attractive to investors,
in case such a big project as the South Stream fails. Russia won‟t leave, for sure, the
expensive and promising plan of South Stream to be wasted because of the European
Union‟s claims42
. Serbia and Bulgaria, with the support of Slovenia and Hungary43
,
authorized the European Commission to lead the negotiations with Russia over the South
Stream gas pipeline44
. This move of theirs show that the close cooperation with Russia
and common interests in the context of the South Stream project, allows Russia to be
actively involved in the political moves of these states.
The involved Member States have already invested large amounts of money on
the South Stream project and have based their internal policy on the economic
development from South Stream‟s benefits. New industrial infrastructure, more jobs
available, foreign investments, sustainable gas supplies and higher energy security, are
some of the privileges provided to the countries involved with the South Stream
project.The pipeline‟s greatest impact will be in Southeast Europe: “Bulgaria and Serbia
will [also] gain new sources of revenue from the transit fees that they will charge for
40
The Third Energy Package is a set of measures to liberalize the energy market, which includes the
requirement the infrastructure owner to be different from the provider, and that different suppliers have
access to the pipes.
41
“Bulgaria Authorizes EC To Lead South Stream Talks With Russia”, Novinite, 18 December 2013,
http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=156528
42
“EU can put pressure on countries cooperating with Gazprom to make trouble in South Stream
building- expert”, The Voice of Russia, 7 December 2013, http://voiceofrussia.com/2013_12_07/EU-can-
put-pressure-on-countries-cooperating-with-Gazprom-to-make-trouble-in-South-Stream-bulding-expert-
8614/
43
“Brussels to lead talks with Russia on South Stream – Bulgaria’s energy min”, Power Market Review, 12
December 2013, http://powermarket.seenews.com/news/brussels-to-lead-talks-with-russia-on-south-
stream-bulgarias-energy-min-394825
44
“European authorities to renegotiate South Stream contracts”, Turkish Weekly, 27 December 2013,
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/160664/european-authorities-to-renegotiate-south-stream-
contracts.html
17. Foreign Policy,
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17
volumes moving beyond their territory”45
, as stated in IHS Energy Insight. It‟s also
important to consider the participation of energy partners-companies from varying
countries in implementing the project‟s offshore part46
. This enhances the chain reaction-
like effects of the South Stream47
, notably not only for the countries that the pipeline
passes through. So it comes as no great surprise that countries of Southern Europe seem
to be ready to defend their sovereign energy systems and intergovernmental agreements
with Moscow despite the shift of political winds in Brussels48
. The sudden changes in
the EU energy policy, which are being implemented in the most absolute way, seem
offensive for the affected Member States and are sadly reminiscent of the cold war‟s fear
that Europe‟s Southeastern part would fall as prey to Russian expansion interests.
As the pipeline construction is drawing closer to be finalized, its impact on EU-
Russia relations seems to be tentatively negative. Russia, in order to counter the
eastward march of NATO into countries of the former Warsaw Pact (such as Poland, the
Czech Republic or Romania) as well as various US attempts to lure Ukraine and Georgia
into NATO, has used the economic lever of Gazprom to somewhat neutralize the
potential military strategic threat from this NATO encirclement.
European Union‟s benefit is independence from Russian energy monopoly, but
as long as it doesn‟t offer to its members a more lucrative option about energy security,
it is very unprofitable for them not to use their sovereignty right and leave their benefits
in favor of EU‟s political games against Russia.Moreover, the ineffective and un-
integrated attitude of the European Union towards the weakening of South Stream
project, is maybe a result of the distance among the European countries‟ benefits and
needs at this moment. Germany, which is one of the leader countries of European Union,
is supplied with Russian natural gas via the project of Nord Stream, so it doesn‟t have a
strong will to start a dispute with Russia and risk their own supply. In the same way,
Balkan countries, although they are not that powerful, they seem ready to support their
position in favor of the South stream prospective.
45
“South Stream may boost Russia’s regional influence”, Monitor Frontier Markets, 26 November 2013,
http://monitorfrontiermarkets.com/news-story/gazproms-south-stream-to-boost-russias-regional-
influence/
46
“South Stream pipeline project - Europe”, Net Resources International, http://www.hydrocarbons-
technology.com/projects/southstream/
47
“South Stream and the EU-Russia balance of power in the Western Balkans”, Oil Price, 1 April 2012,
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/South-Stream-and-the-EU-Russia-Balance-of-Power-in-the-
Western-Balkans.html
48
“Balkan States stand up for South Stream despite EU criticism”, nsnbc international, 20 December
2013, http://nsnbc.me/2013/12/20/balkan-states-stand-south-stream-despite-eu-criticism/
18. Foreign Policy,
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18
The economic crisis that is tormenting Europe has left some power vacuum that
allows Russia to expand, in economic and political influence, due to the economic
opportunities that it gives, especially to Southeastern Europe49
. European Union‟s
threatening statements can only win some political impressions within the countries, but
their real effects are uncertain.
Energy is of vital interest for every country that won‟t knowingly minimize their
energy security in order to comply with the European bureaucrats‟ demands, especially
when an equal profitable return isn‟t offered to them. South Stream may lower the risk
of gas shortages due to its network that bypasses Ukraine and supply European citizens
more directly, but there are serious concerns that it will make the Balkans and parts of
Central Europe even more dependent on Gazprom. Gazprom can be considered as a
regional geopolitical tool used to exert Russian influence.
Vladimir Putin‟s success of last years in the energy sector can be attributed to
Gazprom, which is the centerpiece of Russian energy strategy. As long as European
Union doesn‟t have an alternative plan of secured energy supply and economic benefits,
it is very difficult to stop the Russian expansion in Europe.
With this situation, Russia‟s route can lead only in wining, both in the economy
field and in political influence field in Southeastern Europe. Europe has to be more
generous now with what is offered to these countries, in order to stop or at least
minimize the Russian expansion, before this expansion affects fields like defense and
security.
49
“Could the E.U. lose Bulgaria to Russia?”, Time World, 22 July 2009,
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1912192,00.html
19. Foreign Policy,
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19
Iran’s Nuclear Deal and its consequences
If one wanted to illustrate the chronicle of the relations between the Islamic
Republic of Iran and the West, the story would be too long and difficult to decide where
to start from. Should one start from the excellent relations between Western nations such
as the U.S. and Iran during the Cold War era or start from the 1979 Islamic Revolution
that established the form and character of the modern Iran as well as its relations to the
rest of the world? Or perhaps focus on the country‟s affairs to the West and its decision
to include the card of the nuclear threat in its foreign policy agenda after the 9/11 attacks
and the subsequent U.S. decision to start “the War on Terror”? The story is too long to
be fully described and analyzed here. The important thing is that after more than 30
years of isolation from and rivalry against the West and mostly the U.S.A., apparently
the time has come for Iran to change its foreign policy and assume a new role in the
Greater Middle Eastern region as a result.
Iran has been a user of nuclear energy since the Cold War period with the help of
the Americans. But the 1978 Revolution and the subsequent referendum that established
the Islamic Republic of Iran prohibited the use of nuclear energy because it did not
comply with the Islamic norms and ethics. However, the use of chemical weapons in the
Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88 led the U.S. and Europe to start a policy of sanctions against
Iran and expanded it to all sectors of the Iranian economy throughout the years50
,
ultimately resulting to eight UN Resolutions between 2006 and 201051
that have crippled
the Iranian economy. This deterioration of the economy changed the Iranian public
opinion about the country‟s nuclear program from positive in 200852
to negative in
201253,54
.
The huge decline of the Iranian economy was one of the key reasons for current
President Hassan Rouhani to win the June 2013 elections and change the route of Iran‟s
economic and foreign policy. He made economic recovery and restoration of diplomatic
50
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-Issues/2011/0224/Sanction-Qaddafi-How-5-nations-have-
reacted-to-sanctions./Iran[accessed 19/12/2013]
51
http://www.un.org/sc/committees/1737/resolutions.shtml[accessed 19/12/2013]
52
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/22/AR2006012200808.html[accessed
19/12/2013]
53
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9379493/Iran-state-TV-poll-reveals-
Iranians-want-nuclear-programme-stopped.html [accessed 22/12/2013]
54
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/06/iran-nuclear-program-tv-poll_n_1654353.html[accessed
22/12/2013]
20. Foreign Policy,
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20
relations with the U.S. and the Arab States his main election promises 55
and with his
former experience on the nuclear deterrence issue was able to shape the situation in such
a way as to create a positive environment for a first solution to the problem only a few
months after he took office56,57
. It became visible that the continuation of former
President Ahmadinejad‟s radical policy of reaction and refusal to any kind of discussion
would harm the economy and the international standing of Iran even more, something
that has become undesirable for Tehran for political and social reasons.
The interim agreement between Iran and P5+1, i.e. the five permanent UN
Security Council members U.S.A, Russia, China, Britain and France along with
Germany was achieved after a four-day negotiation period on November 24th
in Geneva
under the supervision of European Commission‟s Foreign Relations head, Lady
Catherine Ashton58
and resulted in the halt of the Iranian nuclear program in exchange
for the lifting of some of the international sanctions59
. In case Tehran does not comply
with the deal the “moderate relief” as President Obama called the $7 billion relief
plugged into the Iranian economy will be taken back and sanctions will be even harsher.
More specifically, Iran under this deal is obliged not to enrich uranium in a
proportion over 5% which is the allowed level for energy production, i.e. civilian
purposes, whereas any nuclear arsenal enriched to the critical for the creation of nuclear
weapons 20% or more will be destroyed60
. However, the agreement does not concern the
future of any of the existing centrifuges. A freeze at the construction of a heavy-water
reactor that could provide Iran with a significant amount of plutonium in the future was
decided too61
and a very close monitoring process from IAEA was agreed to put the
Iranian actions under scrutiny and determine the nature of their program. However,
Tehran does not intend to shut down its nuclear sites as President Rouhani stated just a
55
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/hassan-rowhani-and-iran-s-new-diplomatic-opportunities-
by-javier-solana[accessed 19/12/2013]
56
http://www.gulf-times.com/region/216/details/356598/rohani-firm-on-nuclear-rights,-pledges-openness
[accessed 19/12/2013]
57
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2013/09/25/transcript-an-interview-with-
hassan-rouhani/[accessed 21/12/2013]
58
http://en.ria.ru/world/20131124/184925860/Iran-Strikes-Last-Minute-Nuclear-Deal-With-Group-of-
Six.html[accessed 22/12/2013]
59
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14541327[accessed 20/12/2013]
60
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/24/world/middleeast/talks-with-iran-on-nuclear-deal-hang-in-
balance.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&[accessed 19/12/2013]
61
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/07/barack-obama-iran-nuclear-deal-israel[accessed
23/12/2013]
21. Foreign Policy,
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21
few days after the interim deal was sealed62
. This clearly shows that Iran is willing to
fully cooperate but that it also maintains some of its resistance and makes the West
recognize the country‟s right to possess nuclear power.
The interim agreement is set on a 6-month basis during which it will be
determined where each of the participants -most notably the U.S. that leads the sanctions
committee and Iran itself- stand. The opinions of foreign leaders over the deal are
controversial with those being part of the P5+1 group, most notably the U.S. and
Russian Presidents Obama and Putin to applaud it and agree that this agreement was a
very important step forward for both Iran and the international community even if it is
only the first one on a long road of negotiations63,64
. The first proof of this approval is
that Tehran has agreed with Moscow to build a new nuclear power plant in 201465
.
On the other hand, important regional players such as Saudi Arabia and U.S.-
backed Israel condemned the deal, showing their fear over the future balance of power in
the Greater Middle Eastern region in case that indeed Tehran restores its relations with
the West66,67
and seem to tie in their opinion with Republicans in the Congress and
radical Iranians68,69
.
As it is easily understood, the deal affects Iran but also many sectors and players
regionally and internationally. Tehran had no other option but to pursue such an
agreement since the government aims for its economic and political recovery. The initial
$7 billion relief apart from promoting the government policies to the Iranian public
could be used to show the neighbors of Iran that its strategy on the nuclear issue creates
from now on a much more favorable opinion for it between the Western powers. And
even though the U.S. declared a new round of sanctions on December 15th
, the overall
62
http://en.ria.ru/world/20131130/185164873/Iran-Wont-Shut-Down-Nuclear-Sites--
Rouhani.html[accessed 19/12/2013]
63
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kerry-in-geneva-raising-hopes-for-historic-
nuclear-deal-with-iran/2013/11/23/53e7bfe6-5430-11e3-9fe0-
fd2ca728e67c_story.html?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost[accessed 23/12/2013]
64
http://en.ria.ru/politics/20131124/184935571/Putin-Praises-Iran-Nuclear-Deal.html[accessed
23/12/2013]
65
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20131201/185189860/Iran-Russia-Talk-New-Nuclear-Power-Plant-Deal--
Report.html[accessed 19/12/2013]
66
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10472538/Iran-nuclear-deal-Saudi-Arabia-
warns-it-will-strike-out-on-its-own.html [accessed 17/12/2013]
67
http://world.time.com/2013/11/24/israel-renews-warnings-of-military-action-after-iran-nuclear-
deal/[accessed 17/12/2013]
68
http://news.kathimerini.gr/4dcgi/_w_articles_world_2_01/12/2013_541742[accessed 20/12/2013]
69
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2013/11/obama-defends-iran-nuclear-deal-
2013112614223814207.html[accessed 20/12/2013]
22. Foreign Policy,
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22
positive climate created after the deal remains and it is not in Washington neither in
Tehran‟s interests to radicalize their stance now that things seem to have been put in an
order70
.
On the regional level it changes dramatically the balance of power. Middle East
has traditionally been an explosive part of the world both metaphorically and literally,
and even though players‟ relative importance and leverage might somewhat change from
time to time, things have not been as prone to great changes as they seem to be now.
This change in the regional multipolar system of the Greater Middle Eastern region is a
part of the consequences of the deal on the international level. Iran can now be
considered a legitimate partner for talks and cooperation in other matters as well apart
from the nuclear issue and not as a reactionary and intransigent player. Iran seemingly
has altered its stance from John Mearsheimer„s offensive realpolitik71
to Kenneth N.
Waltz‟s defensive counterpart72
. As a result, the situation in the Middle East seems due
to change, especially if Tehran sticks to its commitment to employ the deal and respect
the IEAE regulations and checks.
It is not certain though, if Iran‟s previous form of realpolitik will not be adopted
by its regional enemies, i.e. the rest of the Arab states. However, it is a logical tactical
move since the fear of a newly normalized relation between Iran and the U.S.will spur
greater violence from the neighboring states since each one will wish to secure its
interests the best way it can. But even the deal alone can be seen as the cornerstone of
something new.
Iran‟s decision to abolish the threat of nuclear weapons and prove to the
international community that its use of nuclear power is solely for energy supply, gives
Israel a new role in the region. It is now the only country to possess nuclear weapons and
it will not allow any other country around it to have the same strategic choice. Iran was
an important counter-player to Israel; one that did not allow it to be the sole power in the
region. Israel –and the U.S. - feared a nuclear threat from Iran. Now this danger has been
put on hold and Israel has the opportunity to turn against Syria that no longer has Iran‟s
nuclear threat as shield against the Israeli interests. This would also pave the way for the
70
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-administration-cracks-down-on-iran-
sanctions-violators/2013/12/12/c16897ca-634e-11e3-a373-0f9f2d1c2b61_story.html[accessed
22/12/2013]
71
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jird/journal/v8/n4/full/1800065a.html[accessed 19/12/2013]
72
http://classes.maxwell.syr.edu/psc783/Waltz44.pdf[accessed 19/12/2013]
23. Foreign Policy,
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23
U.S. and Israel to exercise greater influence in countries like Iraq which has been a
strong ally of Iran during the last 2 decades (post-Saddam era) and Afghanistan with
which Iran has very strained relations. However, as Iran is now more interested in
improving its economy, it can be assumed that it will try to stay away from any kind of
confrontations against Israel at least in the near future. As a result, the “historical
mistake” of which Israeli PM Netanyahu talked about regarding the Iranians‟ supposed
plan to deceive the West and continue with the construction of nuclear weapons and the
direct Israeli military response he advocated in such a case is not likely to be made73
.
The relations between Iran and Syria also seem to be affected not only because
Iran has until now been one of the most important allies of the Assad regime, but
because Iran has always supported Lebanon‟s Hezbollah and has great influence over
Shiite groups in Iraq too74
. Iranian opening towards the U.S. can create frictions between
Syria and Iran but also spur greater amounts of violence and introversion as to the
actions of the Assad regime in order to halt the opposition from gaining grounds within
Syria, especially after UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon„s statement that Iran could
possibly participate in the Geneva Peace Talks for Syria in January 201475
.Apparently
none of these scenarios assist the region‟s current status quo; this is why collaboration
between the West and Iran needs to be taken in small cautious steps.
Turkey is another country that is also affected by this deal. It is clear that it is
becoming a regional power of its own and it considers it important to keep it that way.
This is why it is beneficial for it to cooperate with Iran politically and economically. In
the political sphere the Kurdish issue is the most important one, since both countries face
the challenge of Kurdish separatism and occasional violence. Therefore, to jointly tackle
the problem can provide the grounds for further empowerment of their relations and it
can give Turkey the opportunity to have a strong presence in the region. Furthermore, it
will allow mutual trust to grow between Ankara and Tehran, providing prospects for
economic cooperation especially as far as energy production and consumption are
concerned. Iran is a provider of energy and Turkey needs energy for its industry. This
would be a good starting point for both.
73
http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Israel-denounces-Iranian-nuclear-deal-says-it-will-review-
options-332800[accessed 20/12/2013]
74
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-accord-in-geneva-followed-by-new-violence-new-
diplomacy-for-mideast/2013/12/03/90131e76-5b91-11e3-801f-1f90bf692c9b_story.html[accessed
24/12/2013]
75
http://www.dw.de/ban-ki-moon-calls-for-iran-involvement-in-syria-peace-talks/a-17321682[accessed
23/12/2013]
24. Foreign Policy,
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24
The bolstering of West-Iranian relations could on the other hand create further
alienation between the U.S. and Pakistan. Judging by the conflicted relations of the two
countries in recent years and especially after bin Laden‟s death, a nuclear disarmament
and imposition of control to Iran, for which Pakistanis are considered to be its greatest
allies, can lead to even greater diplomatic and economic strains and create a division
between the two countries because of Iran, consequently changing the situation with
India.
From the above countries, the only one that seems to lose its strategic influence
to a great extent is the head of the Gulf‟s Sunnite monarchies, Saudi Arabia. After the
rapprochement between its greatest ally and market-the U.S. - and Iran, its greatest
enemy, it is logical that it will fear a possible loss regarding its military and energy
relationship to the West, mainly due to the fact that the Sunnite branch of the Arab states
finds itself tangled in the complications the Arab Spring created. However, Saudi knows
that it is not in Washington‟s interest to let Shia Iran seize the role of the greatest
regional player, one that we should bear in mind could very easily be acquired if Iran
itself had a reason to want it. This could be the point where Saudi diplomacy would try
to shape opinions, thoughts and actions in order to prevent something like that from
happening and it remains an issue whether one of the aforementioned Middle Eastern
states would aid Riyadh in this process or retain their positions and just accept the reality
that finally the turning point has come where U.S.-Iranian relations are starting to
improve76
.
Generally, a non-nuclear Iran seems to be beneficial not only for the states in
region that encloses it, but for the Powers that came to talks with it in Geneva too.
Russia can be profited since now the Americans do not have a straightforward reason to
justify the placement of ballistic missiles near its borders under the US Global Missile
Defense System in Europe as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed just the
day following the interim agreement, something that clearly shows the Russian
discontent –if nothing else- for the shield program77
.
The U.S. was the major winner of the interim agreement and managed to freeze
Iran‟s program with a certainty that could not be guaranteed even if military action was
76
http://voiceofrussia.com/2013_12_25/Arab-monarchies-unite-against-Iran-or-just-unite-1770/[accessed
20/12/2013]
77
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20131125/184981092/Iran-Deal-Nullifies-Needs-for-Europe-Missile-Shield---
Russian-FM.html[accessed 20/12/2013]
25. Foreign Policy,
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25
taken. Additionally, the new routes of communication with Iran can aid a more efficient
oil and gas trade but could also open new trade and economic channels with the quickly
developing Asian countries via Iran78
. Besides, a warming of ties between Tehran and
Washington could come at the expense of radical Sunni influence in the region 79
and
mostly the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and provide a safeguard for regional stability,
especially after the UN‟s decision to withdraw the ISAF forces from Afghanistan in
201480
.
Last but not least, the EU countries would enjoy a much greater freedom in the
economic sector as well, especially now that energy trade is among their top priorities
and Germany was one of Iran‟s most important trading partners until it imposed
sanctions and banned Iranian energy imports 81
.As far as its political relations to the
Greater Middle East are concerned, the deal with Iran and its possible future extension
would give it time to recover from its own economic and political crisis and reassume its
previous position as a great strategic player in the regions that is closest to it.
The above analysis shows us that the nuclear deal in Iran has a great effect
indeed in the anarchical international system. Let‟s just hope it will not turn against it.
As President Rouhani has underlined himself, it is “trust” that is the first step to
achieving everything82
and this shift in Iranian foreign policy could be the beginning of
achieving trust, without damaging Iran‟s reputation.
78
http://en.ria.ru/columnists/20131128/185096145/View-From-the-Global-Tank-Iran-Deal-Only-First-
Step-in-Long-Road.html[accessed 19/12/2013]
79
http://www.dw.de/ban-ki-moon-calls-for-iran-involvement-in-syria-peace-talks/a-17321682[accessed
23/12/2013]
80
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/26/us-usa-afghanistan-aid-
idUSBRE9BP01W20131226[accessed 23/12/2013]
81
http://carnegieendowment.org/2007/11/20/germany-s-pivotal-role-in-iranian-nuclear-
standoff/7f2[accessed 23/12/2013]
82
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2013/09/25/transcript-an-interview-with-
hassan-rouhani/[accessed 21/12/2013]
26. Foreign Policy,
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26
Russia’s military build-up in the Arctic region and the first acts of a possible
long-term bitter dispute
A military build-up in the Arctic in 2014 has been ordered by the Russian
President Vladimir Putin, in order to ensure military security and protect Russia‟s
national interests in the region. The Russian President has named the creation of new
forces in the Arctic region among the country‟s top priorities. During an expanded
meeting of the Defense Ministry Board, on Tuesday 10th December 2013, Vladimir
Putin has emphasized the need to “have all the levers for the protection of its (Russia’s)
security and national interests” while Russia is returning to the Arctic and intensifies
“the development of this promising region”.83
In order Russia to solidify its presence in the region, is reinstating its military
base in the Novosibirsk Archipelago (New Siberian Islands), which had been abandoned
by the military in 1993, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Ministry of
Defense has been ordered to complete the formation of new military units and
infrastructure in the area, which is deemed to “have key meaning for the control of the
situation in the entire Arctic region”, according to the Russian President.84
During the year 2013, Russia had already started restoring its Arctic airfield,
including one called “Temp” on Kotelny Island, near the city of Norilsk, in the Laptev
Sea. The first approach on the region was mainly about scientific research, conducted by
the Russian Geographic Agency.85
It focused on the North Pole glaciers,
paleontological, permafrost geographical and meteorological research and training and
the expedition is considered to be another vital, preliminary part of the 2012 – 2030
Russian state‟s program on the exploration and development of mineral resources in the
Arctic continental shelf, which prioritises geological and exploration activities.86
These
facilities have not been in use for 20 years.
Russia is also overhauling the far northern urban facilities in Tiksi, Naryan-Mar
and Anadyr and is set to continue the revival of other Russian northern airfields as well
as docks on the New Siberian Islands and the Franz Josef Land archipelago, Defense
83
“Putin orders Arctic military build-up in 2014”, Russia Today, 10 December 2013,
http://rt.com/news/arctic-russia-military-putin-000/ (accessed 27 December 2013)
84
Ibid
85
“Abandoned airfield in Arctic could recover in 2012“, RIA Novosti, 18 October 2011,
http://ria.ru/arctic_news/20111018/463234652.html (accessed 27 December 2013)
86
Ibid
27. Foreign Policy,
Defense&Security
27
Minister Sergey Shoigu said, speaking at Tuesday‟s 10th
of December meeting.87
The Presidential declaration of reassuring Russia‟s interests in the Arctic could
have already been foreseen, because of the resumption of the permanent Russian Arctic
presence, back in September 2013; an announcement of great symbolic significance. The
Northern Sea Route had been abandoned by the military after the fall of the USSR. For
the purpose of confirmation of the Defense Ministry‟s announcement, a task group had
been created. It was headed by Russia‟s most powerful battleship and the flagship of the
Northern Fleet cruiser Peter the Great (Pyotr Veliky). The group was accompanied by
four nuclear icebreakers facilitating the passage through areas with particularly thick ice.
It crossed, by the time, the Barents, Kara and Laptev Seas.88
This sea route is a shipping
lane between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans, which runs from the Russian northern
port city of Murmansk, along Siberia and the Far East, which by itself underlines the
geopolitical significance of such a combined action planned by the Russian government.
However, it is highly unlikely that other Arctic nations are going to give up their
intention of grabbing a share of the region, believed to be rich in oil, natural gas, and
deposits of gold and platinum. In 2008, the United States Geological Survey (USGS)89
released the first-ever wide-ranging assessment of Arctic oil and gas resources,
estimating the region‟s undiscovered and technically recoverable conventional oil and
natural gas resources at approximately 90 billion barrels of oil, 1.668 trillion cubic feet
of natural gas liquids that may remain to be found. The dominant portion of these
resources is hidden beneath ice that is shared between five nation bordering the Arctic:
Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Norway, the Russia and the US.90
These nations have been in a bitter dispute over how to divide up the “pie”.
According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, these states have the right to
form an Exclusive Economic Zone in the Arctic region that will be limited to 200
nautical miles from their coastline but a country can demand 350 nautical miles if it can
prove a natural extension of its land area, if it provides detailed scientific information
87
“Putin orders Arctic military build-up in 2014”, ibid
88
“Russian military resumes permanent Arctic presence”, Russia Today, 14 Semtember 2013,
http://rt.com/news/russian-arctic-navy-restitution-863/ (accessed 27 December 2013)
89
For more information see: “United States Geological Survey”, http://www.usgs.gov/ (accessed 28
December 2013)
90
“Arctic oil and gas”, Ernst & Young, 2013,
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Arctic_oil_and_gas/$FILE/Arctic_oil_and_gas.pdf,
(accessed 28 December 2013)
28. Foreign Policy,
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28
proving such a fact.91
However, they can hardly act on their own; if some state declares
without former consensus of the other states the creation of its Economic Zone, a
political, diplomatic and international law dispute may come up, stalling the efforts of
sustainable exploitation and development of the region for a long period of time.
Thus these countries are building up their efforts of solidifying their position and
invigorating their arguments towards the scheduled meetings for the Arctic region that
are going to take place. Such a meeting is the 3rd
Arctic Region Oil & gas Conference
that returns on 4 – 5 March 2014 in Norway. This international forum is expected to
bring together oil and gas operators, experts and government officials to discuss current
offshore project challenges and solutions.92
About each country‟s general strategy for the region in particular, Canada
confirmed on Monday 9th of December that is preparing to include the North Pole as
part of its Arctic Ocean seabed, complicating furthermore the multi-country push to
prove jurisdiction over further territory in the area. Canada has so far submitted to the
UN Commission on the limits of the Continental Shelf showing scientific evidence that
should be able to assert its privileges over territory and resources within waterways well
beyond its borders. The preliminary application seems to present complete scientific
evidence of Canada‟s claims, while the UN requires comprehensive mapping evidence
to justify any declaration of rights. Further submissions are expected to be filed in at a
later date.93
On the other side, US President Barack Obama had unveiled back in May 2013 a
national strategy for the Arctic, asserting that every nation in the world must protect the
region‟s fragile environment and keep it free from conflict.94
While the US are declaring
the need of combined action and dispute-free exploitation of the region, which in fact is
generally recognized by the most of the immediately interested states, they are
underlining the need of environmental-friendly exploitation. Since the climate change
91
“United Nations convention on the Law of the Sea”, PART V. EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE,
http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf (accessed 28
December 2013)
92
Site of the 3
rd
Arctic Region Oil &Gas conference 4-5 March 2014, Stavanger, Norway,
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Arctic_oil_and_gas/$FILE/Arctic_oil_and_gas.pdf,
(accessed 28 December 2013)
93
“Canada to include the North Pole in its claim for Arctic territory, resources”, Russia Today, December
10 2013, http://rt.com/news/canada-arctic-north-pole-claims-965/ (accessed 27 December 2013)
94
“National Strategy of the Arctic Region”, President of the United States, The White House, Washington,
May 10 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/ nat_arctic_strategy.pdf (accessed 27
December 2013)
29. Foreign Policy,
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29
has made the preserve of the unique arctic environment a paramount need for the planet,
the US are noting the need of very careful approach during any future attempt of
exploitation; this kind of action demands high technological infrastructure and sets many
financial boundaries for the most of the concerned nations.
30. Foreign Policy,
Defense&Security
30
News at a Glance
Foreign Policy
- In early 2013 the Croatian Government announced its intension to introduce the
official use of Serbian and of the Cyrillic alphabet in areas where Serbs constitute
more than 1/3 of the population, respecting minority rights legislation. Among the
areas was Vukovar, a symbol of resistance of Croats against Serbs, which became the
scene of massive protests against this initiative in February. In September, when
bilingual signs were installed in Vukovar, hundreds of veterans and war survivors
reacted fiercely smashing the signs. However, the government insisted and reattempted
to install the signs, but they were vandalized again. The Headquarters for the defense of
Croatian Vukovar launched a campaign to gather signatures in order to provoke a
referendum on the issue. The Headquarters demanded that minority rights should apply
only in areas where half of the population consists of one ethnic group, instead of one
third according to the current legislation, practically abolishing the entrance of the
Cyrillic alphabet altogether. By the middle of December more than 680,000 signatures
had been gathered, enough for a referendum, whereas the government stated that it
would enforce the law. The issue remains unsolved.
- In December, 17th
the sons of three ministers of the Turkish government were
arrested after police raids on the accusation of bribery. These ministers (of
Environment, of Economy and the Minister of the Interior) resigned over the
scandal with the Environment Minister Erdogan Bayraktar calling Prime Minsiter
Tayyip Erdogan to resign as well. Twenty businessmen and a senior officer of one
Turkey‟s biggest banks were also arrested. According to Turkish political analysts the
arrests might be the result of a dispute between Tayyip Erdogan and Fethullah Gulen, a
powerful cleric who has fled to the US in 1999 after being accused by the then Turkish
government of plotting the establishment of an Islamic state. It should be mentioned the
Gulen has created a movement, called Hizmet, which runs many private schools in
Turkey, whereas the Turkish government plans to abolish them. Prime Minsiter Erdogan
spoke of conspiracy against his government and vowed to break the hands of plotters,
while protests against the government gathered in big cities and the Turkish stock
market and is plummeting.
-The UN General Assembly has adopted a resolution aimed at protecting the right
to privacy of internet users on December, 18 2013. The resolution was introduced by
Brazil and Germany after allegations that the US had been eavesdropping on foreign
leaders, including Brazil's Dilma Rousseff and Germany's Angela Merkel. The claims
stem from leaks by US intelligence fugitive Edward Snowden. The resolution calls for
all countries to guarantee privacy rights to users of the internet and other forms of
electronic communications. It also expresses concern at the harm that such scrutiny,
including spying in foreign states and the mass collection of personal data. This
resolution has significant importance for Russia, too, because of the asylum given to Mr.
Snowden, who fled to Russia in June after leaking details of far-reaching US telephone
and internet espionage.
31. Foreign Policy,
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31
- Michael Khodorkovski, a former tycoon, was released in December, 20 after
President Putin signed a pardon on the basis of humanitarian grounds, as
Khodorkovski’s mother is sick. The former tycoon spent 10 years in jail for being
convicted for stealing oil and money laundering in 2010. Earlier in 2003 he was
convicted on charges of tax evasion. Khodorkovski was granted Putin‟s pardon thanks to
amnesty passed in the State Duma, which covers at least 20,000 prisoners (minors,
disabled, veterans, pregnant women and mothers). However, many are those who claim
that Putin granted amnesty in an effort to appease criticism on human rights violence in
Russia ahead of February Winter Olympic games in Sochi. Khodorkovski flew to
Germany after his release where he was reunited with his family.
Defense & Security
- Japan has announced a plan to increase defense spending and transform its
military, in a move widely seen as aimed at China. The move comes with Tokyo
embroiled in a bitter row with Beijing over East China Sea islands that both claim and it
reflects concern over China's growing assertiveness over its territorial claims and
Beijing's mounting defense spending. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called for Japan to
broaden the scope of activities performed by its military - something currently tightly
controlled by the post-war constitution. He has also established a National Security
Council that can oversee key issues. Of course, Japan does have a military. But it was
designed in the days of the Cold War to protect Japan against an invasion from the north,
from Russia. Over the next five years, Japan will buy hardware including drones, stealth
aircraft and amphibious vehicles. Undoubtedly, the announcement of more Japanese
military spending comes weeks after China established an air defense identification zone
(ADIZ) over the East China Sea, including islands controlled by Japan making clear,
consequently, that this region will be of high importance for the maintenance of
international peace and security.
- Russia and Vietnam have strengthened their relations as an orientation towards
Asia is more desirable for Moscow now, after the recent developments in Europe.
Both nations agreed to enhance future cooperation in navy and science-technology
at the first deputy-ministerial strategic defense dialogue which took place in Russia
on December 12. The delegations were headed by the Deputy Minister of Defense Sen
Lieut Gen Nguyen Chi Vinh and the Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly
Antonov. During the dialogue, military officials from both countries highlighted the
significance of the first defense dialogue which aims to realize the
comprehensive strategic partnership with a focus on military and defense cooperation.
They exchanged views on international and regional issues of mutual concern, as well as
their coordinated action at the United Nations and other international forums. Both sides
also discussed about their concerns on regional security, sovereign disputes and the
implication of major nations which are causing a conflict of interests, such as the
People‟s Republic of China and its neighboring countries. A second defense dialogue is
scheduled to take place in Hanoi next year.
32. Foreign Policy,
Defense&Security
32
- Russian state-run arms exporter Rosoboronexport has received a contract for
supply of Mil Mi-17V-5 military transport helicopters to the Nepalese Army. The
contract was signed between the company and the Nepalese Ministry of Defense on 19
December 2013. Capable of transporting up to 36 passengers or 4t of cargo, the
helicopter are primarily intended for cargo delivery, rescue missions, VIP transport and
combat troop support operations across the country, but they are also expected to
conduct the role of a gunship.Deliveries under the contract are scheduled to take place in
2014.Nepal had previously acquired three Russian-built Mil Mi-8 helicopters, but only
one remains in service due to lack of funds for maintenance.
- On December 19, the commander lieutenant general Sergei Karakaev of the
Russian Strategic Missile Force (SMF) revealed that SMF will field a new heavy
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2020. Karakaev was quoted by RIA
Novosti as saying that the SMF is counting on being equipped with a new missile system
with specifications not inferior to its predecessor in a 2018 to 2020 timeframe. The new
silo-based Sarmat ICBM will replace the Cold War era R-36M2 missile. The new
missiles form part of a $700bn procurement plan approved by the Russian Government
to modernize the armed forces by 2020, according to the news agency. The Russian
nuclear forces are expected to be limited to 1,550 warheads and 700 strategic nuclear
delivery systems, including long-range missiles and bombers, as part of the new strategic
arms reduction treaty (START) agreement, signed with the US in 2011.
