Factors That Drive Bangkok Condo Prices

WHAT DRIVES
BANGKOK’S RESIDENTIAL
CONDOMINIUM PRICES
Prepared by James Pitchon

INTRODUCTION HISTORY
Everyone, whether owner-occupier or investor, wants the price of their property to
rise. The Bangkok real estate market is quite unique compared to other markets
because of the huge variation in the price performance of condominium properties
after their completion, even those in similar locations.
For almost 30 years, I have researched and analysed the Bangkok residential
condominium market looking for the magic formula to determine the price
performance of a project. Unfortunately, I’m afraid that I have not found it yet, but
have identified a list of factors that contribute to determining the price and hope
these factors will be helpful in guiding property purchasers, be they owners or investors.
Property, residential property in particular, is a unique product because it can be
both for personal use and investment with the possibility of capital gain and rental
income. It is a roof over your family’s head which is a basic need and can also be
an appreciating investment if replacement costs rise or there is a perceived shortage
of supply.
It is one of the few investment products where many people are willing to borrow
money to fund a purchase and banks are willing to lend to a broad range of
people to fund a purchase. This makes property very different to other investments
like shares or bonds as the dual-purpose nature of property as a consumer-durable
and investment product makes analysing and forecasting prices harder.
The Thai Condominium Act permitting the sale of freehold strata title condominium
property was passed in 1979.
By 1988, there were only about 2,600 completed condominium units in downtown
Bangkok and today there are 140,000 and about 630,000 in the whole city
comprising Bangkok and the five surrounding provinces (the Bangkok Metropolitan
Region).
In 1988, it was possible to buy an off-plan condominium unit in Bangkok for
20,000 – 25,000 baht per square metre but purchasers then got a bare concrete
shell with a very basic bathroom. There were no wall, floor, or ceiling finishes, no
fitted kitchen, air-conditioning, lighting, or electrical outlets provided by the
developer.
Today, average prices for new projects have risen by more than 1,000% compared
to prices 30 years ago with new developments in Bangkok’s prime locations
selling off-plan for more than 300,000 baht per square metre and most projects
are now sold on a fully fitted basis.
An unusual feature of the Bangkok market is that almost no completed projects
have been able to achieve prices similar to new off-plan projects even when they
are next door, and prices for completed buildings vary widely. I have set out to
examine the reasons for these differences and which factors drive prices.
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What Drives Bangkok's Residential Condominium Prices1CBRE RESEARCH | © 2019 CBRE, Inc.

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In the late 1980s, the best downtown condominium project was Somkid Gardens
which could be purchased off-plan for 35,000 baht per square metre.
At present, sellers are quoting resale prices for units in Somkid Gardens from
around 170,000 baht per square metre up and yet other developments which are
only 500 metres away such as (1) SC Asset’s 28 Chidlom, launched in 2016 and
still under construction at the time of this writing, is selling at 350,000 baht per
square metre and (2) Sansiri’s 98 Wireless, completed in 2016, where units have
been reported as being sold at 700,000 baht per square metre.
Somkid Gardens has seen unit prices increase by five times since it was sold
off-plan more than 30 years ago, but there are other buildings that are 20 years
old or more where prices have hardly increased.
People often say that “location, location, location” is the key to property investment
but this is obviously not the case in Bangkok, where there is such a wide variation
of prices between buildings that are next door to each other. There are many other
factors that have and will continue to affect price performance.
We know that the price of new property is driven by the cost of land, cost of
construction, developers’ profit margin, and what people are willing to pay; in
contrast, the price of second-hand property is not driven by cost but only by what
people are willing to pay.
I have examined the various factors I think drive the price of resales in buildings
and determine why prices may rise in one but not in another. One of these key
factors, unlike other cities, is that future potential supply in Bangkok is not severely
limited by government planning regulations.
In Bangkok, the prices in some buildings don’t appreciate because there is
“technical obsolescence,” such as low ceilings where the building design and
specification no longer matches buyers’ requirements. There is also an element of
“wilful obsolescence” where co-owners fail to maintain and upgrade the common
areas of the property making it increasingly unattractive to potential occupiers
whether they are buying for their own use or to rent out.
Overall, there is a general logic to the pricing in each building in Bangkok, but
the variation is much more significant for properties in similar locations than it is
in other cities.
Somkid Gardens

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1. LOCATION & LAND PRICE
2. AGE
3. TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
4. SITE SIZE
5. LAND RATIO
6. HIGH-RISE VERSUS LOW-RISE
7. TYPE OF UNIT AND UNIT MIX
8. UNIT SIZE OPTIMISATION
9. DESIGN QUALITY
- EXTERNAL APPEARANCE
- LOBBY
- LIFTS
- FLOOR LOBBIES AND CORRIDORS
- FACILITIES & COMMON AREAS
- UNIT DESIGN
- EXTERIOR FINISH / WINDOWS
CONTENTS
WHAT DRIVES BANGKOK’S RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUM PRICES
10. TYPE OF OWNER
11. HIGH FLOOR VERSUS LOW FLOOR
12. VIEW VERSUS NO VIEW
13. PROPERTY MANAGEMENT AND MAINTENANCE
14. PARKING
15. BRANDING
16. INVESTMENT YIELDS

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1. LOCATION & LAND PRICE
Location is obviously an important factor, but not the only factor in determining the
price of second-hand condominium property.
The most expensive sites and therefore the most expensive new properties are on
a limited number of roads in the Lumpini, Sathorn, and Sukhumvit areas as well
as a few Riverside locations.
The most preferred locations have either better accessibility in terms of vehicular
or mass transit access. Locations on narrow sois, far from the junction with a main
road are less preferred.
The desirability of a specific location is a combination of accessibility factors and
not just proximity to a mass transit station.
The uses in the immediate neighbourhood are also important. End-user owners
and tenants want to live in a good neighbourhood with convenient facilities and
amenities but don’t want to be next to a use that will create too much noise or
disturbance.
CBRE has, for the purposes of research, divided Central Lumpini, Silom/Sathorn,
Sukhumvit, and Riverside.
4 DISTRICTS DEFINITION OF AREAS
The area incorporating Wireless,
Ploenchit, Rajadamri, Chidlom, Langsuan,
Sarasin, and Ruamrudee roads,
and other sois in between
The area incorporating Silom, Sathorn,
Surawong, and Narathiwas-Ratchanakarin
roads (north of Chan road) as well as
sois in between
The area along Sukhumvit road from
sois 1-63 and 2-43 as well as other
sois in between
Includes developments on the Riverside
incorporating Rama III, Charoenkrung,
and Charoennakorn roads
Central
Lumpini
Silom /
Sathorn
Sukhumvit
Riverside

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OLD TOWN
SUKHUMVIT
OUTER SUKHUMVIT
OUTER SUKHUMVIT
CENTRAL
LUMPINI
SILOM
SATHORN
THONBURI
RAMA lll
BTS Route
MRT Route
Road
Expressway
PATHUMWAN
Expressway
Chan Road
Wong Wian Yai
RanaVRoad
InnerRingRoad
PhaholyothinRoad
RatchadapisekRoad
Sukhumvit Road
Rama IV Road
Charoen Nakorn Road
Sathorn Road
RIVERSIDE
N
arathiwatRatchanakarinRoad
Charoen Krung Road

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2. AGE
There has always been a preference for new property by Thai buyers who still
make up the majority of Bangkok condominium purchasers. There is still a relatively
illiquid resale market and in the whole of Bangkok, the ratio of new property sales
to second-hand property sales is about four new condominium properties sold for
every second-hand condominium sold.
In the UK, the second-hand market is much more dominant with around eight
second-hand sales for every one new property sale. The second-hand supply is a
much bigger percentage of stock for sale in the UK where due to various factors,
including very restrictive planning regulations, only a limited amount of new
supply is built each year.
However, no simple formula can be applied to say that second-hand property
should trade at a certain discount to new property based simply on its age.
There are numerous examples of similar-aged second-hand properties in very
similar locations trading at very different prices per square metre; however, no
completed building is achieving the same price as a new off-plan building in the
same location.
Land does not depreciate but the building structure does. In theory, provided the
structure is not obsolete, then increased land prices should drive up the price of
second-hand property with a discount for depreciation of the structure compared
to the cost of a new building.
This has not been the case and there is a wide variation of prices for similar-aged
buildings in similar locations. Obviously, age is a significant factor with Somkid
Gardens, probably the best performing over 30-year-old building, still selling at
around half the price of new nearby buildings being sold off-plan.

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3. TOTAL NUMBER
OF UNITS
4. SITE SIZE
As market theory says that price is determined by supply and demand, a building
with a small number of units (limited supply) should perform better than a building
with a large number of units. This is not the case in Bangkok as some buildings
with less than 50 units perform worse than similar-aged buildings in similar
locations with more than 200 units.
There is no perfect formula but it does seem that once there are more than a
certain number of units in a building, then people don’t perceive it as a luxury
product because it does not come across as exclusive. The total number of units
and buyers’ perceptions on the exclusivity and attractiveness varies based on the
overall design of the project.
Some projects with a limited number of units appear very densely developed
because of the small size of the site; whereas, some projects with more units seem
more open and attractive.
Generally, speaking from what I have seen, projects with around 200 units seem
to have sufficient scale to impress and exclusivity is reduced with too many units.
This is not a hard rule and certainly we have seen some developments with up to
400 units achieve premium prices
If a site is too small then the project has limited visibility, floor plates are small, and
open area is restricted. Based on experience, a luxury project needs a site size of
at least two Rai (3,200 square metres) but preferably three Rai (4,800 square
metres).

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5. LAND RATIO
Another factor is the land to unit ratio.
This is the total site area divided by the number of units. As previously stated, land
does not depreciate and for new developments, land now accounts for more than
50% of a project’s costs. CBRE expects land prices to continue to rise and to form
an increasingly greater component of the total price.
There is some evidence to show that buildings with a greater amount of land per
unit performs better but this is probably due to it giving the building a better look
and feel rather than being driven purely by the mathematics of land valuation.
In countries like Singapore, land value has risen to a level where the site is worth
more than some older existing buildings, thus there have been cases where
owners have mutually agreed to a collective sale where all units are sold to a
single purchaser who intends to demolish the building and redevelop the property.
Collective sales are unlikely to happen in Bangkok where 100% agreement of all
co-owners is needed to dissolve a condominium, compared to 80% in Singapore.
Domus Condominium - 110 units, 4.5 Rai of land
One unit for every 65 square metres of site area

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6. HIGH-RISE VERSUS
LOW-RISE
7. TYPE OF UNIT AND
UNIT MIX
Generally, high-rise buildings perform better than low-rise buildings.
Bangkok planning regulations restrict the size and heights of buildings on sois less
than ten metres wide. In most parts of the CBD, the maximum built area permitted
for sois between 6-10 metres wide is 10,000 square metres and a maximum
height of 23 metres, generally 7-8 storeys.
Low-rise buildings have been less popular because the view from units has often
been blocked by buildings next door. Often, there is less open space in low-rise
developments and the setback from the boundary is only three metres compared
to six metres for a high-rise building.
High-rise buildings often have better views and their size means they usually have
larger common areas with more facilities and amenities.
Developers have built a full range of condominium unit types from studios to
palatial penthouses and there is some evidence to suggest that the types of units
and their mix affects buyers’ perception of a building and its price.
A building with only studio or one-bedroom unit types is not a seen as being a
luxury development but that does not mean that a development with only
three-bedroom and four-bedroom units is automatically considered a luxury
development.
A property with a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom units as well as a few larger
units is generally considered a luxury development that can achieve higher prices.
A building with only one unit size and type often appeals to only one segment of
the market which can limit the number of potential purchasers and achievable
prices.

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8. UNIT SIZE OPTIMISATION
Most buyers have a fixed lump sum budget and have decided how many
bedrooms they want.
A 180-square-metre three-bedroom unit in a new development may be able to
get the same or a higher total price as a 300-square-metre or larger three-be-
droom unit in an older building but the price per square metre will be more than
50-100% higher.
For many buyers, it is not the total size of a unit but the efficiency of its layout and
utility.
Most new buildings have a much more carefully thought-out use of space focussed
on maximizing the utility. In some older developments, the living/dining rooms are
almost big enough to play football in, but much of the space is wasted and not
practical.
The newer and more efficient buildings with smaller unit sizes have much smaller
utility areas and maids’ rooms.
The smallest units do not automatically get a higher price per square metre because
there is a minimum practical size for each unit type. There is a range of optimum
sizes for each unit type.
It is not just size that matters but also the practical utility of the space which is
driven by design and not just the number of square metres.
It seems clear that there is a range of unit sizes that optimize the price per square
metre for each unit type but again, this depends on how purchasers view the
efficiency and utility of the layout.
Different types of buyers have different size requirements. Buy-to-rent investors
want to optimize the rent per square metre preferring the smallest unit size that a
tenant will accept, increasing the rent per square metre per month they receive.
Owner-occupiers may prefer larger units to maximize their use of the space and
may be willing to pay more in terms of the total price for the additional utility
value.

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Design and specification are key factors but they are very subjective and hard to
precisely analyse and list because everybody has a slightly different view on what
they like and therefore how much they are willing to pay.
Design and specification cover a wide range of factors and I have set out what
I think are the most important.
• External Appearance
Aside from the unit layout, there is an overall perception of the building design
which is very subjective and depends on individual taste.
I think buyers want a building with some sort of image when it is seen from the street or
“Kerb Appeal,” hence the external appearance and visibility from the street is important.
The quality of façade materials is one of the factors that determine the grade
of a building.
I believe luxury purchasers want a sense of privacy and exclusivity and don’t want
retail outlets open to the public on the ground floor.
Owner-occupiers want a sense of security and a feeling that the development is
their home.
• Lobby
Just like a hotel or office building, buyers want a “sense of arrival” whether they
arrive by private car, taxi, or on foot - they want to feel that they have arrived
home. This does not mean that the building lobby needs to be the size of New
York’s Grand Central Station but nor can it be tucked away in the middle of a
badly-lit car park with low ceilings that only provide access to the passenger lifts.
A decent-sized lobby with the right proportions of height to size is important to give
the right sense of arrival. Generally, a lobby ceiling height of at least 4.5 metres is
preferable.
The lobby needs to be practical with step-free access for both people with babies
in pushchairs and people in wheelchairs.
• Lifts
There is a preference to have separate car park lifts to ensure that all visitors pass
through the main lobby as this provides additional security rather than go directly
to their units’ floor from the car park.
The passenger lifts need to be efficient and have the same look and feel as a
five-star hotel. Efficiency is very important; nobody wants to pay ten million baht
or more for a home where they have to wait some time before getting in the lift to
get to work in the morning.
Occupiers want a separate service lift so that furniture and building materials do
not have to come up in passenger lifts and rubbish goes out via the service lift.
One of the factors which has devalued older buildings is that their lifts have not
been replaced or renovated and are both visually unattractive and slow.
9. DESIGN QUALITY

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There is a question whether private lift lobbies add value to a building. This really
depends on the design and efficiency of the floor plate. If there is only one lift
which can be accessed from the private lift lobbies, buyers are concerned that
when the lift is under maintenance they will have to use the service lift to access
their units. On the other hand, as having two lifts to service private lift lobbies may
not be cost-efficient, it all depends on the design, scale of project, and concept.
Occupiers want both efficient lifts with minimum wait times and a sense of
exclusivity, the best result is a compromise between these two needs.
• Floor Lobbies and Corridors
From what I have seen, many developers still ignore and do not spend enough
money on floor lobbies and corridors. Some developments have floor lobbies that
are decorated more like a back of house service corridor.
I think people want the quality and the look and feel to be consistent throughout
their journey from the street to their unit’s front door.
• Facilities & Common Areas
At times, there has been a tendency to oversize common area facilities and there
have been many facilities that are impractical. They may look good in the brochure
but not upon completion and as their operating costs must be paid by all co-owners,
it is essential that they can be operated economically.
We have seen developers putting in space for bars and other uses in common
areas where owners do not want to pay for staff to manage them, and so they are
now empty and unused.
There are minimum levels of facilities required such as a good swimming pool and
a well-equipped gym but in other cases facilities and amenities have turned
out to be a mere marketing gimmick that cost too much to operate once building
management is handed over to the co-owner’s committee and operating
costs paid by the owners for the operation of unutilized common facilities are often
cut back.
Too many extras often lead to speedier obsolescence as condominium owners do
not pay to maintain them.
• Unit Design
Many years ago, my former boss in Hong Kong told me that “kitchens and
bathrooms sell apartments” and I think to a certain degree that continues to be
true, and condominiums with the best-looking kitchens and bathrooms do get
higher prices.
Ceiling height is important and developments built with ceilings as low as 2.4
metres during the speculative boom in the 1980s don’t appeal to buyers as much
as today’s developments with three metre plus ceiling heights.
Buyers also want balconies not just because they want to sit in them but because
they can open the doors to get natural ventilation.
• Exterior Finish / Windows
Purchasers have become more aware of the need for heat and sound insulation
and some new developments have double glazed windows.
There is some evidence that purchasers will pay for better quality windows with
sound and heat insulation.
Many new buildings have curtain wall cladding finishes rather than traditional
blockwork.
We have yet to see what the long-term cost of maintaining a curtain wall is
compared to repainting blockwork and whether the type of external finish will start
to affect resale prices due to potential maintenance costs.

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• Type of Owner
In Thailand, there is a 49% limit on foreign ownership, so in theory, there should
be a premium for the foreign quota. This has happened in resort locations but to
date, few condominium buildings in Bangkok have hit the maximum limit of
foreign ownership and with a few exceptions, there is no premium for foreign
quota resales.
The potential for a “foreign quota premium” depends on the level of foreign demand
and overall, this has not exceeded the amount of overall foreign quota supply to date.
There does seem to be a premium for some buildings that have a high percentage
of owner-occupiers, where fewer units come on the market for resale creating
scarcity and in theory higher prices.
Some end-user purchasers prefer buildings where most of the units are owner-oc-
cupiers and most definitely don’t want to be in a building where some owners are
illegally doing Airbnb short-term lets.
In some buildings that are more than 20 years old such as Tower Park in Sukhumvit
or Sathorn Park Place in Sathorn, internal markets have developed.
These are where there are existing owner-occupiers who want to buy units in the
building for their children to allow them to continue to live close together even
when their children leave home. This creates a permanent level of demand for
units in a building.
• High Floor versus Low Floor
When developers sell condominiums off-plan they usually increase the price for
units higher up the building. Once a building is completed, there is mixed eviden-
ce of higher prices being achieved for higher floors.
Generally, high floors are preferred to low floors making them easier to resell.
I think the key is view, if some floors have limited views because they are blocked
by other neighboring buildings then they will achieve lower prices than units with
a view, but there is no simple mathematical formula that says higher floors achieve
higher prices.
• View versus No View
Scarcity drives up prices and there are some buildings with unique views that other
buildings don’t have, for example views overlooking Lumpini Park, Benjakitti Park
(The Tobacco Monopoly Lake), or the Chao Phraya River.
These buildings or specifically units in these buildings with unique views can achieve
prices higher than developments or units with no views.
For most developments in Bangkok, owners must make do with a city skyline view
but there does seem to be a premium for units with a view rather than, for example
a unit in a low-rise building looking directly at a neighbouring building that is only
six metres away.
One thing to remember about a view is that unless the building directly fronts
the park or river, then in the future that view might be obstructed by a new
development.
Tower Park Sathorn Park Place

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• Property Management and Maintenance
Every new building will one day become an old building in the eyes of Thai
purchasers. This is why property management and maintenance are very important
for price performance.
Few people want to stay in a hotel where the common areas have not been fully
renovated or upgraded for more than ten years and this is also the case with many
condominiums.
Entrance lobbies, lift cars, common corridors, car parks, landscaping, and facilities
that are dated, poorly-maintained, and unattractive have a big negative effect on
property values.
Owners cannot make significant structural changes to rectify bad design but if they
are also not willing to spend significant sums on the look and feel of common
areas, then the building will commence a rapidly accelerating downward spiral
until the units become almost unsellable.
This is a big issue in Bangkok where co-owners have been unwilling to pay higher
common area management fees or capital contributions to upgrade their
building. In other countries this might result in co-owners finally agreeing to sell
the building for redevelopment. That is unlikely in Bangkok where agreement from
100% of co-owners is required to dissolve a condominium.
As anybody who has been a member of a condominium committee or has attended
an owner’s annual general meeting in Thailand knows, getting 100% agreement
from co-owners on anything is almost always impossible.
It is not just the look and feel of the building that requires capital spending.
Many items of building equipment wear out including lift cables and motors, water
and fire pumps, transformers, common area air-conditioning, and fire alarm
systems.
At some stage in the life of a building all these will need replacing otherwise the
building will become uninhabitable or unsafe.
There have only been strata title condominium buildings in Thailand since 1979
and the oldest buildings now need major upgrades.
Owners will have to spend money to preserve or increase the value of their units,
but in many buildings, co-owners are unwilling to spend sufficient amounts to
maintain and improve the common areas of the property and the building becomes
increasingly unattractive compared to newer or better maintained developments.
This “willful obsolescence” is, in my opinion and that of many of my colleagues,
the biggest factor in determing the price of older buildings.
For under-construction or recently completed buildings, developers spend significant
amounts in promoting the building’s unique selling points. Once the developer has
transferred all the units, marketing stops. This is why new buildings catch buyers’
attention but older developments, unless they have built a “word of mouth” reputa-
tion for quality from occupiers and potential purchasers, tend to fade away reducing
the property’s exposure and image to potential buyers.
• Parking
I think the number of car parks affects price. Many condominiums with many small
units do not have one car parking space per unit.
At the top-end of the market most people still own a car even if they use mass
transit for some journeys. In the mid-market sector it still very important to have a
parking space.
This means that the best buildings need one-vehicle parking spaces per one-be-
droom unit and two- vehicle parking spaces for three- bedroom units.
For owners to know exactly which space to park their vehicles, car parks should be
allocated for exclusive use.

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I do not think there is a big difference in value if the car park is private property
with a title deed for each space or simply an allocated space in the common area,
provided that the car park is exclusively for the use of the unit owner.
High land prices mean developers are now building automatic parking systems to
increase the density of parking. My colleagues believe there is still a preference
from users for traditional ramped parking.
• Branding
There are now three branded residences that have been completed; the Sukhothai
Residences, the Residences at the St. Regis Bangkok, and the Ritz-Carlton Residences
at MahaNakhon. There are also four branded developments under construction;
the Four Seasons Private Residences, the Residences at Mandarin Oriental
Bangkok, Banyan Tree Residences Riverside Bangkok, and the Residences at
Sindhorn Kempinski Hotel.
The drivers of price in these projects are that purchasers believe that the brands
underwrite the quality of the project and that the brand would only agree to license
their name and manage the property if they were confident that the quality
matches their brand image.
Secondly, purchasers believe that the hotel brand will provide a superior level of
property management particularly hotel-like soft services such as a concierge.
To date, the evidence has been that branded properties achieve higher initial sales
prices than unbranded properties in a similar location and have achieved higher
resale prices even for leasehold properties like the Residences at the St. Regis
Bangkok.
Scarcity creates value and there will only be a limited number of units managed
by a brand in some cases limited to only one property per brand.
Not every brand is equally attractive, and owners must agree to certain conditions
in terms of maintenance and improvement budgets similar to the relationship
between a hotel manager and a hotel property owner.
The management fees of branded properties will generally be higher than
non-branded ones, hence buyers pay more both in terms of price and ongoing
costs.
• Investment Yields
Some condominium purchasers buy for rental income. The yield expressed as a
percentage is the annual income divided by the price. On a simple basis, this is a
gross yield without deductions for expenses or taxation but a more accurate
measure of net yield is after deduction of operating expenses and taxation.
In my ancient text book, “Modern Methods of Valuation”, it is stated that “the basic
principle is that an investor wishes to invest capital to obtain an annual return
thereon in the form of net income which represents an acceptable rate of return.”
The yield is supposed to account for all the risk and reward factors including the
potential for increases and decreases in future income.
If the acceptable rate of return falls, then the price can go up even if net income
remains the same.
The total return on property has two components, income and capital gain.
In my opinion, investment in Bangkok condominium property has increasingly
been driven by the perceived potential for capital gain rather than rental returns.
There has been little change in the total monthly rents paid by tenants for many
years mainly due to the plentiful availability of supply. Yields have been steadily
falling for years.
Although the rental market has been flat, buyers have been willing to pay
increasingly higher prices for new properties. Rental returns have not therefore
had a significant effect on values.
The perceived potential for capital gain has been the main incentive for
buy-to-rent investors and reassures owner-occupier investors.

Factors That Drive Bangkok Condo Prices

Factors That Drive Bangkok Condo Prices

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