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TRENDWATCH 2.0
Q3 2021
PAYMENTS SYSTEM INDUSTRY
SYNOPSIS
Notice: Materials contained in this document are drawn from several media sources, and Dorado Industries is not responsible for their accuracy. Opinions expressed herein are
presented without warranty. Brand names are the trademarks of their respective service offerors.
2
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Contents
Random Thoughts ................................................................................3
2021 Predictions and Where We Are at Q3.........................................4
TrendWatch Summary: Industry Focus Areas – Q3 2021.................6
TrendWatch Search Light: The New Players......................................7
2021 Payments Industry YTD Yields...................................................8
Interesting News This Quarter.............................................................9
M&A and Alliance Activity..................................................................12
Curiosities ...........................................................................................15
Useful Links for More Information ....................................................17
Back in the Day!..................................................................................18
3
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Random Thoughts
And, so it goes.
The sun rose on TrendWatch in Q3 2001 when Issue 1 was
published. The sun sets on TrendWatch with Q3 2021 Issue 80.
For twenty years we have commented on, cajoled about, and
attempted to connect the dots for what was once a fledgling industry
that few understood or cared about. There’s been lots of things to talk
about. Yet, for the most part, the developments in electronic
payments pale in comparison to what occurred in the twenty years
prior to the first issue.
In 1981, “payments” was defined as cash, check, credit cards and a
smattering of ATMs. A fair share of merchants still used click-clack
machines to accept credit cards and the “hot card” bulletin was still
being published. Then came debit – in two forms – and the
transformation of ATM networks into EFT systems. And Electronic
Benefit Transfer chipped away at food stamps. We witnessed the
development of videotext and “smartphones,” the wobbly first steps to
home and online banking came out of the cable industry and from
bootstrapped organizations like OnLine Resources. One of the
unexpected consequences of Y2K was general increase in the fast,
security, and efficacy of underlying processing systems.
Clearly, major strides in customer convenience, merchant
acceptance, and system security have been made in the immediately
past twenty years. Mobile phones and mobile devices alone have
spawned new payments-related applications and have the fintech
industry on the map. Some might argue that the changes we’ve
witnessed in the past two decades amount to mere form factor
changes and they wouldn’t be wrong when these advances are
contrasted with what the late 1980s and 1990s introduced.
No matter; for an industry that was virtually ignored forty years, we’ve
come a long way.
As the industry has matured, a series of constants have emerged.
For instance, despite frequent wrangling among some industry
sectors, we are better at regulating ourselves than being
regulated. Show me one instance where outside regulation has led
to more convenience, higher transaction security, or greater consumer
adoption and I’ll send you a dollar.
We’ve found that there’s nothing new under the sun. Decades
ago, a smart industry executive defined the payments typology of “pay
ahead, pay now, pay in the future.” Still just as valid today – secured
credit cards and prepaid enable pay ahead functionality. Debit –
decoupled and otherwise – lets us pay now. And credit and T&E
cards allow us to defer payment in part or whole. What about BNPL
you ask? Old as the hills; retailers offered lay-away plans in the
1940s and issuers of the Diners Club T&E card in Latin America have
always allowed users to invoke the option to make fixed-sum
payments over a period of months.
In the same “payments are payments” vein, looking for an
anonymous, portable, secure, reliable, and instantly-settling payment
form? Thinking about Bitcoin? Try a $20.00 bill instead.
And then there’s the often-proven mantra that getting to critical
mass with a new payments scheme will cost twice as much and
take twice as long as originally forecast. Expense
mismanagement, exuberant initial plans, and overly optimistic designs
can all contribute to cost creep and timeline stretching. Still, the
industry’s track record of delivering better payments solutions is pretty
good. Consumer adoption, well that’s another matter. Perhaps more
time spent on new service benefits and less on pure design is the
answer. Time will tell.
Kudos and many thanks to readers who have provided guidance and
suggestions for content plus the occasional challenge to our snarky
opinions.
Curating TrendWatch has been extremely rewarding. Thanks to you
for coming along for the ride.
Until next time.
4
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
2021 Predictions and Where We Are at Q3
The Buy Now, Pay Later segment will continue to post multi-digit growth numbers throughout 2021. However, toward year end, we
expect to see intra-segment M&A activity as the need for scale builds.
Q1: We’ve seen two overseas outfits close – too much competition. Meanwhile, investors continue to fund the balance sheets of those firms
intending to keep BNPL receivables instead of laying them (and the risk) off.
Q2: Both Visa and Mastercard have positioned BNPL offerings to avoid being left out of the parade.
Q3: Australia’s leading BNPL lender, Afterpay, is acquired by Square for $29 billion; proof positive that industry aggregation is afoot. Amazon
has selected Affirm for its BNPL offering. Game over.
Consumer preference for touch-less purchasing will spur the share of contactless cards in circulation in 2021 to exceed 60 percent (it
was 19 percent in 2019.)
Q1: Visa alone estimates that the number of its contactless cards hit 300 million at the end of 2020, three times the number just one year prior. If
the others follow suit, contactless cards could easily reach 50 percent penetration by the end of the year.
Q2: Google has modified the Google Pay app on Android handsets through NFC emulation to allow users to spend money received or loaded.
Q3: Late-COVID pandemic reports from merchant acquirers include results for contactless card transaction share growth exceeding 100 percent
in period-over-period data analysis. We’ll get there by yearend for sure.
Two major food/pharmacy retailers will follow the path set by CVS and begin accepting QR code-based payments provisioned by
marque quality payments houses.
Q1: Retailer adoption of QR codes for payments is moving faster than expected. Amazon GO and 7-Eleven are adapting systems.
Q2: PayPal is cutting deals with retailers to empower them to accept Venmo and PayPal QR codes at the point of sale.
Q3: Major AU banks CBA and NAB, alongside supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths, have partnered with Eftpos (national debit network) to
launch its new eQR payment platform which it expects will significantly transform Australia’s payments landscape. Could happen here.
Emboldened (and backed) by a new Federal administration, Senator Durbin will be successful in his effort to arm wrestle the Federal
Reserve into solving the PIN-less debit skirmish between card issuers and merchants. It may take the Fed some time to act, however.
Q1: Senator Durbin jawboned Visa and Mastercard into another postponement of their planned interchange and network fee increases for
another year.
Q3: The battle lines have been drawn and we’re getting closer to a full-blown skirmish. Might not happen by yearend though.
5
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
2021 Predictions and Where We Are at Q3
One of either Google or Amazon will step up to challenge Goldman Sachs and its Marcus wealth management product. Robinhood will
be hurt as collateral damage.
Inspired by PayPal’s victory over the CFPB regarding the prepaid rule caution, (not all the dust has settled yet), other payments system
providers will tackle key past rulings by the consumer watchdog agency.
Q1: Where the CFPB heads is anyone’s guess at this point. Rohit Chopra, the current nominee to head the agency, is staying with the FTC for a
bit while some of the vacancies at that agency are filled. Confirmation hearings will be held once the FTC gets set straight.
Q2: CFPB remains (permanent) leaderless, for now.
Q3: Barely a day after Rohit Chopra took office as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the agency announced a
leadership shakeup. Expectedly, the new players are Biden campaign leaders and former Obama CFPB execs. Don’t expect much change for
the duration.
Visa will prevail in its legal tussle with the Department of Justice but will be forced to either curb its enthusiasm for expansion or
disgorge existing API-related assets.
Q1: Visa blinked on the Plaid acquisition, something we hadn’t figure could possibly happen. Well, when you’re wrong, you’re wrong.
Q2: Visa rebounded quickly after the jilt and is acquiring Tink for half the price offered for Plaid.
Q3: Recent Visa M&A activity suggests a shift in strategic efforts to build a better, safer mousetrap. The results may wind up being the same
(global API dominance), albeit at a slower rate.
6
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
TrendWatch Summary: Industry Focus Areas – Q3 2021
Recent
Activity
Level
Industry
Impact
Entrenched
Player
Impact
Market and Industry Situation
Focus Area Recent Movements
Med New Payment Forms Perhaps something whiz-bang will emerge from Money 20/20. Otherwise, times are slow.
Low ATM Restructuring The move to touchless cash access continues.
High POS Volume Trend Huge volume across the board. Contactless and CNP showing unsustainable growth.
Med Legal/Regulatory Issues New executive orders that target competitiveness will leak into payments.
Low New Venture Growth There are some innovative newcomers out there; most are bootstrapping it.
Med Earnings
Announcements
Big numbers showing up in banking as reserves taken last year are being released.
High Industry Investments Most of the notorious M&A targeting BNPL.
Med Payments Industry
Security
Cybercurrency exchanges appear to be ripe for picking.
Positive
Mixed
Negative
7
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
TrendWatch Search Light: The New Players
Industry Players to Watch In 2021
High-end Retailers Supply chain gaps will hurt all retailers; main street merchants may suffer most.
OCC and CFPB White House is looking to spur competition in financial services. New banking licenses and opening banking may be
the result.
Internal Revenue Service Biden’s attempt to pay for infrastructure and lifeline support through IRS scrutiny of bank records may
cause a huge cat fight.
Real-time Payments Outliers FedNow is moving to market; RTP is already in place. Innovators should emerge soon to provide
bankers with differentiating service options.
The Healthcare Sector As (when) COVID wanes, demand for services foregone during lockdowns will accelerate.
The Big Six Techs Congressional committees are pissed and want to know what big tech is doing with all the information it is
harvesting. Antitrust tools may be applied to curb enthusiasm.
8
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
2021 Payments Industry YTD Yields
Q3 price have firmed up since Q2 and in late valuations, Bitcoin is heading back toward higher altitudes. Our portfolio of payments equities
continues to generate returns in excess of full market performance even after the occasional speed bump. Past returns are not predictive of future
performance so consider these data points as merely that; interesting but not actionable. Still 50+ percent YoY yields ain’t bad.
Yield Rank
Alliance Data Systems $74.10 $100.94 $26.84 $1,597 36% 6
American Express 120.91 168.86 47.95 51,786 40% 4
Bill.com 136.50 273.22 136.72 9,652 100% 1
Discover Financial Services 90.53 124.88 34.35 16,519 38% 5
Euronet Worldwide 144.92 129.01 (15.91) (802) -11% 14
Fidelity National Information Services 141.46 121.98 (19.48) (3,717) -14% 15
Fiserv Inc. 113.86 108.82 (5.04) (786) -4% 12
Everi 13.81 24.73 10.92 842 79% 2
Jack Henry & Associates 161.99 164.79 2.80 235 2% 10
Mastercard Worldwide 356.94 349.78 (7.16) (927) -2% 11
MoneyGram International 5.47 8.10 2.63 152 48% 3
PayPal 234.20 263.59 29.39 35,856 13% 7
Square 217.64 239.75 22.11 7,230 10% 8
Western Union 21.94 20.47 (1.47) (836) -7% 13
Visa 218.73 224.17 5.44 4,602 2% 9
Bitcoin Closing Price $28,963.00 $47,419.30 $18,456.30 64%
Industry Player 12/31/2020 9/30/2021
Price
r
Cap Value
r
2021
Sources: Company releases; Morningstar.com; Bloomberg.com; and Coinbase.
Note: 2021 YTD yield excludes dividends; based on 12/31/20 and 9/30/21 closing prices.
9
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Interesting News This Quarter
Subject Source / Date Summary
Google Finextra
October
When it was announced in late 2019, Google’s plan to launch Plex, a checking account powered by
Citibank and others, made quite a stir. The bank says that 400 thousand people have signed up for the
program and other sponsors have been lined up. All good news except that Plex isn’t going to happen;
Google has pulled the plug, opting to provide “digital enablement” instead. So it goes with the Google
payments hokey pokey.
Mastercard Finextra
September
Card brand Mastercard has launched its “Installments” scheme to capture a share of the burgeoning
BNPL market. Perennial MC supporters, Barclays, Fifth Third, FIS, Galileo, Huntington, and others are
initial players. An API-powered system will support the respective offerings of these U.S. players as well
as Qantas Loyalty and Latitude in Australia. Not to be outdone (or left behind), Visa is working the
Canadian market hard with new BNPL arrangements cut with CIBC, Scotiabank, and Desjardins.
Latecomers had better get going while the going is good.
Chase Finextra
September
This story sounds familiar. JP Morgan is about to launch a digital-only bank in the UK to upend the UK
banking market. “Project Dynamo” as it is tagged, has been under development for two years and if the
UK effort works, the bank plans to offer the digital-only option to all its customers. This is not the first time
Chase has efforted a new concept in financial services; perhaps success will come with this attempt.
Walgreens Business Insider
September
Mega drug chain, Walgreens is launching a bank account dubbed “Scarlet.” InComm Payments is the
enabling technology provider while MetaBank is holding the deposits. This neobank challenger comes
with Walgreens Cash rewards on purchases, 2-day early deposit, and financial literacy tools. The drug
retailer hopes to leverage is 9,000 store network to augment the digital-only characteristics of the Scarlet
product. Walgreens claims that its mobile app is designed with older users in mind – simplified menus and
larger font sizes. Hmmm. Do “older” Walgreens customers really need financial literacy tools or just
bigger fonts? We’ll see.
Target Payments Dive
October
So, let’s see how complicated we can make this, said only a few. Meanwhile, Target has added two
BNPL resources to its payments options – Sezzle and Affirm. Both providers are top-drawer and deliver
repayment options aplenty. So now consumers get to choose which fork in the road is best for them but
must apply at the Sezzle or Affirm sites before venturing on. Seems a bit complex to us.
PayPal Business
Intelligence
October
Payments aggregator, PayPal, extends its network of payments access through agreements with two
significant brands – United Airlines and American Express. Fliers on certain United flights may now use
QR codes to make offline purchases while in-flight. American Express cardholders may now add their
cards to PayPal from within the AMEX app with a mere button tap. Both conveniences may be successful
in keeping PayPal users in touch with the platform while allowing its membership to take advantage of
other functionality provided via United and American Express. Clever.
10
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Interesting News This Quarter
Subject Source / Date Summary
Pulse Debit
Study
Digital
Transactions
August
Hands down, one of the best sources of close-in views of how payments are transforming is the annual
Pulse Debit Study. The Pulse Network has been conducting the study throughout the past three
decades and every issue provides interesting and actionable results. This year we learned that Card Not
Present (CNP) volume surged a full 7 points over prior periods and that contactless transactions have
doubled. And did you know that 92 percent of digital wallet transactions were Apple Pay? Great stuff!
Bank of
America
Insider
Intelligence
August
We know from experience (bad) that the travel industry is experiencing a resurgence. True, flights are
fewer and packed like sardines in tin, but a lot of non-business travelers are moving about despite the
inconvenience. So, it’s appropriate that Bank of America has christened a new credit card, the
“Executive Explorer,” to lure business travelers back to the road and the bank. EE comes with $600 in
lounge access credits and $100 in credit toward TSA Precheck-like services. The grab bag also includes
the usual slew of insurance bennies like roadside, legal and emergency assistance. At $395 a year, EE
doesn’t look like a bad deal. So long as companies allow us to travel again and that’s not a sure bet.
KindTap MarketWatch
October
While the Federal government diddles its way to thinking about cannabis and how to protect the money it
generates, another privately funded venture is moving ahead. KindTap operates a closed loop network
that links consumers and cannabis merchants so that people can pay for the goods. KindTap is a unit of
Kreditforce Ltd, a private merchant bank. Generally based on a debit card arrangement, KindTap has
taken things further with a credit line scheme to get consumers over the end of pay period yearnings.
Other players in the cannabis payments space include CanPay (where it all started), eMerchant Broker,
Nature Pay, Sky High Moly, Greenleaf and others. Payments industry veteran, Cathy Corby Iannuzzelli
heads up the firm.
Citibank The Edge
Markets
July
In what appears to be a cost-cutting move, Citibank is withdrawing is “Prestige” premium card from the
market dominated by American Express and Chase. The bank has notified holders of the $495 per year
travel-focused card that they may continue to use the product, but new applications have been
suspended. Meanwhile, it is widely held that Wells Fargo is in the process of developing a new high-end
card. Time will tell if Prestige is in a holding pattern or headed for oblivion.
Apple Bloomberg
July
The latest non-technical launch by Apple is internally knowns as “Apple Pay Later,” a deferred payment
scheme offered by the Silicon Valley darling in conjunction with Goldman Sachs. A short-term payments
plan will be “Apple Pay in 4” while the zero-interest longer term option tied to Apple Card will be known as
Apple Card Monthly Installments.” BNPL is an obvious road to take for Apple, given its product price
points but Mr. Cook might consider some branding with a bit more pizzaz. “iDelay,” “iStretch,” or
“iPayLater” perhaps?
11
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Interesting News This Quarter
Subject Source / Date Summary
Revolut CNBC
September
Revolut, the UK-based banking challenger presently valued at $33 billion, is entering the retail stock
brokerage segment with commission pricing identical to Robinhood – zero. The startup has been granted
a broker-dealer license by the SEC and has announced near-term intentions of a U.S./UK IPO.
Meanwhile, an application for a full banking charter has been filed in California. Good luck with that.
Facebook Insider
Intelligence
July
Facebook Pay is expanding. The payments system will be migrating into the wild with its first stop being
Shopify where the program will compete with the third party’s own pay button, Shop Pay. It’s hard to
predict how Facebook Pay will do against established players like PayPal and Apple Pay but if the degree
of user loyalty is a determining factor in its ultimate success, Zuck’s latest zig should do well.
Consumer
Financial
Protection
Bureau
Digital
Transactions
October
Speaking of the CFPB and its new leader, Robit Chopra, things may be getting a bit tense for six
technology companies soon. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, PayPal, and Square have been sent a
series of orders to collect information on how they gather and use personal data. Chinese firms Alipay
and WeChat Pay are also being targeted for examination. It’s way too early to suggest where this going
but we foresee a forest-sized number of submissions and countless hours of testimony by big tech
executives. Not likely that CFPB plans to liberalize its grasp on payments or banking anytime soon.
Synctera Payments Dive
September
More on open banking. Looks like there’s a movement of coalescence among key industry players to
level the playing field for bankers of all sizes and stripes. The latest action involves Synctera, a San
Francisco-base backend services provider, and Mastercard and Marqeta. The new partnership is
designed to allow community banks to let fintechs offer digital card services to both consumers and
businesses. Regent Bank in Tulsa is the latest to sign up joining Coastal Community in Washington,
Lineage Bank in Tennessee and Ellevest, a money manager based in NY. Community banks looking to
expand their play in digital and fintech might consider the partnership as an option. Or not.
12
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
M&A and Alliance Activity
Buyer/Investor Target
Payments
Emphasis Possible Strategy
Investors like us Toast Restaurant
technology
Newer restaurant technology player, Toast, began trading on the NYSE in late
September, a tribute to the company’s ability to persist during the pandemic. The firm’s
“Toast Now” digital-only platform helped struggling restaurants transition to on-line orders,
payments, and delivery scheduling. Despite its ability to pivot in troubled times, Toast
racked up losses of $209 and $248 million in 2019 and 2020, respectively. More proof
that investors like what they see on the horizon.
Lone Pine
Capital, G
Squared.
Vetamer, others
AirWallex Global
payments
Below-the-radar online processor, AirWallex, quietly benefits from an oversubscribed
Series D round of $200 million bringing its valuation to over $4 billion. The originate from,
and pay to, processor grew by 150 percent in the first half of 2021 and processed over
$20 billion in payments. Funds will be used to expand its presence in the U.S., UK, and
EMEA. Another of those quietly dominating players to watch for when vendor shopping.
Mastercard Aiia Open banking Danish firm, Aiia sells itself to Mastercard for an undisclosed amount. The company has
links to 2,700 banks throughout Europe and processes one million A2A transactions per
month. The move by MC puts it squarely in the open banking play in Europe when
connected to the card brand’s earlier Finicity acquisition and majority ownership
investment in Nets. Next stop, a banking license?
PayPal Paidy Japanese
BNPL
Paidy is a BNPL player in Japan with six million registered users. The company dates
back to 2014 and had recently raised $120 million in Series D funding. PayPal is paying
$2.7 billion to enter the BNPL market in Japan. Paidy specializes in on-line purchase
support. Another make-versus-buy decision that may have gone the correct way.
Chase VW payments In-vehicle
payments
Coming to a VW near you: JPMorgan Chase. The bank has purchased a 75 percent
interest in Volkswagen’s payment business, a unit launched in 2017. When fully
functional, the system will facilitate in-vehicle purchases, fueling, and EV charging. Terms
were undisclosed but we guess it cost Chase more than a Yugo.
Valar Ventures,
others
Point Debit card
scheme
Startup debit card program offeror, Point, has raised $46.5 million in a Series B round led
by Peter Thiel’s venture firm. Point targets millennials trying to avoid credit card usage
and debt by offering a $49 alternative. The debit card provided is linked to a bank account
and provides perk-based benefits like monthly subscriptions to Netflix and Spotify as well
as rideshare and food delivery services. The company claims that the $49 annual fee
generates $1,230 in yearly benefits. Interesting math but if it attracts the segment, so be
it.
13
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
M&A and Alliance Activity
Buyer/Investor Target
Payments
Emphasis Possible Strategy
Zilch Nepfin BNPL Zilch is a UK-based BNPL player while Nepfin is a San Francisco-based debt funding
platform. Industry pundits consider this move strategic because Nepfin gives Zilch a
strong base from which to enter the U.S. market. Terms were not disclosed but Zilch has
recently closed a $110 million round of funding. The strategy seems logical, but one must
wonder just how many BNPL originators the U.S. market needs or can support?
Returning
Investors
Chime Banking
challenger
Chime’s latest round of $750 million raised its valuation to $25 billion. For comparison
sake, US Bank is buying Union Bank, a $60 billion (assets) commercial bank for $8 billion.
Chime has users that number in the millions (13.1) while Union Bank has about a million
depositors. Chime gets most of revenue from interchange while the old-line bank makes
its money the old-fashioned way – through borrow/lend arbitrage. Time will tell if Chime is
as valuable as the numbers guys think.
NAB Citigroup AU
business line
Commercial
bank
National Australia Bank is paying $1.2 billion for Citibank’s retail banking portfolio plus
its 800-member staff. In short, NAB is getting the whole kit and kaboodle – unsecured
loans and branded and private label card schemes but not the underlying systems – so
there’s a conversion waiting for the Aussies who currently bank with Citi. Approval from
the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, a tough bunch of regulators, is
required before the deal closes.
Fiserv BentoBox Digital
storefronts
Fiserv makes a move to strengthen its position in the restaurant vertical by acquiring
BentoBox, a major player in online marketing, loyalty, and ordering. The space has seen
significant growth with players like Toast and SpotOn gaining big chunks of the expanded
demand for online ordering. Fiserv’s move also buoys its merchant POS business line.
Good plan.
Square Afterpay BNPL Once a bootstrapped payments organization with an odd-looking dongle attached to
mobile phones for payments swipes, Square has jumped into the buy now, pay later fray
with the $28 billion acquisition of Afterpay, the AU category killer. Square gains
relationships with Afterpay’s 16 million consumers and 100k global merchants. Square
will integrate the acquired BNPL resources into its Cash App ecosystem. Another make-
versus-buy analysis and big, bold move.
14
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
M&A and Alliance Activity
Buyer/Investor Target
Payments
Emphasis Possible Strategy
Visa Currencycloud Currency
exchange
Visa takes another step in its journey to participate in global payments, no matter the
place or currency denomination. The card network had earlier participated in an $80
million Series E funding for Currencycloud, a provider of APIs that allow banks and other
financial services players to provide currency exchange services worldwide. Cross-border
payments have always been painful for consumers and businesses and Visa hopes to
gain loyalty and share by making it less so.
Discover Sezzle BNPL Card brand Discover makes a $30 million investment in BNPL player Sezzle to provide
buy now pay later services to users of its network. Sezzle has grown rapidly to 34,000
merchants and 2.6 million users. The share purchase transaction is based on a price of
$6.58. SYL trades on the ASX and closed at $5.80 on October 25. Time will tell if the
transaction’s monetary value matches the benefits gained by the cardholders.
15
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Curiosities
We’ve found a few items in our payments review that we consider mildly amusing (despite of because of COVID circumstances).
Subject Source / Date Summary
USPS Business Insider
October
Unbeknownst to just about everyone, the U.S. Postal Service is incrementally entering the financial
services industry through a group of four pilot programs (DC, Falls Church, Baltimore, Bronx) that provide
check cashing, ATM, bill payment, wire transfer and related services. This, on the heels of USPS
announcing that our first-class mail will soon start arriving a day or so later than previously. Not a fair
trade, we muse.
Amazon ZDNet
September
Amazon.com.au isn’t keen on accepting Visa cards any longer. The Australian marketplace will begin
surcharging Visa payments 50 basis points starting on November 1. Concurrently, marketplace users will
be paid AU$20 (~US$14) via a gift card when they add a different payment method to their account.
Another game of hardball by the Ozzies. Citizens of Singapore have already been exposed to Amazon’s
new Visa credit card pricing. Readers may recall that Walmart Canada took a different approach by
banning Visa credit cards five years ago. Somewhere along the line one of the combatants blinked and
things returned to normal. Let’s see what happens on November 1.
Liquid Finextra
August
Japanese cryptocurrency exchange, Liquid is hacked and loses $90 million from some of its online
wallets. This is Liquid’s second hack. Fortunately, the first invasion involved documents rather than
currency. It’s a pity that Willie Sutton is no longer with us; he’d have a field day with “blockchain-secured”
assets. (Google it.)
Wells Fargo Bloomberg
August
Seems Wells Fargo was surprised by the pitchfork and torches response it got to its announcement last
year that personal lines of credit with going the way of the dodo. It seems that WF overlooked the fact
that reducing a customer’s available financing can harpoon credit scores. Inactive credit line users have
until November to either use the lines or request that they keep them open. Nice try, WF.
16
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Curiosities
Subject Source / Date Summary
Branch
banking
Business
Intelligence
August
Research house, Sykes, conducted a consumer survey of banking habits in May 2021 which reinforces
the conflict bankers face over branching strategy. 55 percent of the respondents said they had visited a
branch in person in the past year. 32 percent used the site to make a deposit while 20 percent opened
accounts and 9 percent met with a banker about personal finances. Probably insufficient input to
convince bankers bent on downsizing to reverse their plans but worth a moment of reflection perhaps.
Open banking Insider
Intelligence
July
Months ago, the White House started a campaign designed to urge the Consumer Financial Protection
Bureau (CFPB) to gear up its rulemaking engine to kickstart U.S. opening banking. Taking such action
would enable challenger banks to gain access to consumer financial data stored with legacy banks when
new customers open accounts. Alas, the CFPB continues to move at glacial speeds so we’re likely to
wind up with a patchwork quilt of API players like Plaid and the newly formed Financial Data Exchange
(FDX) creating their own rules. So it goes in U.S. banking innovation.
Venmo NY Post
July
Worth a chuckle maybe. PayPal-owned app, Venmo, has suspended its practice of allowing users to see
strangers’ transactions. True, there were always privacy concerns over the issue but watching folks sling
payments among themselves made for good entertainment once COVID shut down most other forms of
media watching. Seems that PayPal was “encouraged” to make the change after the Biden’s discovered
that BuzzFeed News reporters were using the global feed feature to map the President’s close contacts
and family members. We hear that the Bidens have since closed their Venmo accounts. Pity.
Bitcoin ATM Seems not everyone in Silicon Valley is a high-earning bright light. Thieves stole a Bitcoin ATM from a
Silicon Valley liquor store (yet another angle to consider at a later date) by using a rope and a truck to
yank it out the front door. Probably would have been more rewarding to hack a BTC exchange site for
millions rather than the measly $200 in the kiosk. Darwin at his finest.
17
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Useful Links for More Information
This quarter we are providing URL links to give readers the option of reviewing some of the firms cited in this month’s issue.
Company Role URL
AirWallex Online processor https://www.airwallex.com/us
Chime Another huge banking challenger https://www.chime.com
KindTap Cannabis payment https://www.kindtap.com
Point Cards for millennials https://www.point.app
Revolut Huge UK banking challenger https://www.revolut.com/en-US
Synctera Backend banking services https://synctera.com
18
Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com
jmacallister@doradoindustries.com
(310) 544-1316
Back in the Day!
TrendWatch readers have been a generous group of executives. TW was not designed to promote products; nor was it used a vehicle for fund
raising, except for twice. Ten years ago, readers contributed over $10,000 to Boy Scouts of America by sponsoring me in Over The Edge, a
rappeling event staged at a 34-story Los Angeles hotel. Five years ago, TW raised $5,000 in college scholarship funds to support Students Run LA
high school seniors. I truly enjoyed the descent down the Bonaventure Hotel glass outer skin and the chance to help BSA. The girls pictured below
had just crossed the finish line at the Los Angeles Marathon. Few have run a marathon and these ladies did it in 5:19 hours. Pretty darn quick.
Many thanks to all TW contributors!

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Payments Industry Trends Q3 2021

  • 1. TRENDWATCH 2.0 Q3 2021 PAYMENTS SYSTEM INDUSTRY SYNOPSIS Notice: Materials contained in this document are drawn from several media sources, and Dorado Industries is not responsible for their accuracy. Opinions expressed herein are presented without warranty. Brand names are the trademarks of their respective service offerors.
  • 2. 2 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Contents Random Thoughts ................................................................................3 2021 Predictions and Where We Are at Q3.........................................4 TrendWatch Summary: Industry Focus Areas – Q3 2021.................6 TrendWatch Search Light: The New Players......................................7 2021 Payments Industry YTD Yields...................................................8 Interesting News This Quarter.............................................................9 M&A and Alliance Activity..................................................................12 Curiosities ...........................................................................................15 Useful Links for More Information ....................................................17 Back in the Day!..................................................................................18
  • 3. 3 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Random Thoughts And, so it goes. The sun rose on TrendWatch in Q3 2001 when Issue 1 was published. The sun sets on TrendWatch with Q3 2021 Issue 80. For twenty years we have commented on, cajoled about, and attempted to connect the dots for what was once a fledgling industry that few understood or cared about. There’s been lots of things to talk about. Yet, for the most part, the developments in electronic payments pale in comparison to what occurred in the twenty years prior to the first issue. In 1981, “payments” was defined as cash, check, credit cards and a smattering of ATMs. A fair share of merchants still used click-clack machines to accept credit cards and the “hot card” bulletin was still being published. Then came debit – in two forms – and the transformation of ATM networks into EFT systems. And Electronic Benefit Transfer chipped away at food stamps. We witnessed the development of videotext and “smartphones,” the wobbly first steps to home and online banking came out of the cable industry and from bootstrapped organizations like OnLine Resources. One of the unexpected consequences of Y2K was general increase in the fast, security, and efficacy of underlying processing systems. Clearly, major strides in customer convenience, merchant acceptance, and system security have been made in the immediately past twenty years. Mobile phones and mobile devices alone have spawned new payments-related applications and have the fintech industry on the map. Some might argue that the changes we’ve witnessed in the past two decades amount to mere form factor changes and they wouldn’t be wrong when these advances are contrasted with what the late 1980s and 1990s introduced. No matter; for an industry that was virtually ignored forty years, we’ve come a long way. As the industry has matured, a series of constants have emerged. For instance, despite frequent wrangling among some industry sectors, we are better at regulating ourselves than being regulated. Show me one instance where outside regulation has led to more convenience, higher transaction security, or greater consumer adoption and I’ll send you a dollar. We’ve found that there’s nothing new under the sun. Decades ago, a smart industry executive defined the payments typology of “pay ahead, pay now, pay in the future.” Still just as valid today – secured credit cards and prepaid enable pay ahead functionality. Debit – decoupled and otherwise – lets us pay now. And credit and T&E cards allow us to defer payment in part or whole. What about BNPL you ask? Old as the hills; retailers offered lay-away plans in the 1940s and issuers of the Diners Club T&E card in Latin America have always allowed users to invoke the option to make fixed-sum payments over a period of months. In the same “payments are payments” vein, looking for an anonymous, portable, secure, reliable, and instantly-settling payment form? Thinking about Bitcoin? Try a $20.00 bill instead. And then there’s the often-proven mantra that getting to critical mass with a new payments scheme will cost twice as much and take twice as long as originally forecast. Expense mismanagement, exuberant initial plans, and overly optimistic designs can all contribute to cost creep and timeline stretching. Still, the industry’s track record of delivering better payments solutions is pretty good. Consumer adoption, well that’s another matter. Perhaps more time spent on new service benefits and less on pure design is the answer. Time will tell. Kudos and many thanks to readers who have provided guidance and suggestions for content plus the occasional challenge to our snarky opinions. Curating TrendWatch has been extremely rewarding. Thanks to you for coming along for the ride. Until next time.
  • 4. 4 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 2021 Predictions and Where We Are at Q3 The Buy Now, Pay Later segment will continue to post multi-digit growth numbers throughout 2021. However, toward year end, we expect to see intra-segment M&A activity as the need for scale builds. Q1: We’ve seen two overseas outfits close – too much competition. Meanwhile, investors continue to fund the balance sheets of those firms intending to keep BNPL receivables instead of laying them (and the risk) off. Q2: Both Visa and Mastercard have positioned BNPL offerings to avoid being left out of the parade. Q3: Australia’s leading BNPL lender, Afterpay, is acquired by Square for $29 billion; proof positive that industry aggregation is afoot. Amazon has selected Affirm for its BNPL offering. Game over. Consumer preference for touch-less purchasing will spur the share of contactless cards in circulation in 2021 to exceed 60 percent (it was 19 percent in 2019.) Q1: Visa alone estimates that the number of its contactless cards hit 300 million at the end of 2020, three times the number just one year prior. If the others follow suit, contactless cards could easily reach 50 percent penetration by the end of the year. Q2: Google has modified the Google Pay app on Android handsets through NFC emulation to allow users to spend money received or loaded. Q3: Late-COVID pandemic reports from merchant acquirers include results for contactless card transaction share growth exceeding 100 percent in period-over-period data analysis. We’ll get there by yearend for sure. Two major food/pharmacy retailers will follow the path set by CVS and begin accepting QR code-based payments provisioned by marque quality payments houses. Q1: Retailer adoption of QR codes for payments is moving faster than expected. Amazon GO and 7-Eleven are adapting systems. Q2: PayPal is cutting deals with retailers to empower them to accept Venmo and PayPal QR codes at the point of sale. Q3: Major AU banks CBA and NAB, alongside supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths, have partnered with Eftpos (national debit network) to launch its new eQR payment platform which it expects will significantly transform Australia’s payments landscape. Could happen here. Emboldened (and backed) by a new Federal administration, Senator Durbin will be successful in his effort to arm wrestle the Federal Reserve into solving the PIN-less debit skirmish between card issuers and merchants. It may take the Fed some time to act, however. Q1: Senator Durbin jawboned Visa and Mastercard into another postponement of their planned interchange and network fee increases for another year. Q3: The battle lines have been drawn and we’re getting closer to a full-blown skirmish. Might not happen by yearend though.
  • 5. 5 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 2021 Predictions and Where We Are at Q3 One of either Google or Amazon will step up to challenge Goldman Sachs and its Marcus wealth management product. Robinhood will be hurt as collateral damage. Inspired by PayPal’s victory over the CFPB regarding the prepaid rule caution, (not all the dust has settled yet), other payments system providers will tackle key past rulings by the consumer watchdog agency. Q1: Where the CFPB heads is anyone’s guess at this point. Rohit Chopra, the current nominee to head the agency, is staying with the FTC for a bit while some of the vacancies at that agency are filled. Confirmation hearings will be held once the FTC gets set straight. Q2: CFPB remains (permanent) leaderless, for now. Q3: Barely a day after Rohit Chopra took office as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the agency announced a leadership shakeup. Expectedly, the new players are Biden campaign leaders and former Obama CFPB execs. Don’t expect much change for the duration. Visa will prevail in its legal tussle with the Department of Justice but will be forced to either curb its enthusiasm for expansion or disgorge existing API-related assets. Q1: Visa blinked on the Plaid acquisition, something we hadn’t figure could possibly happen. Well, when you’re wrong, you’re wrong. Q2: Visa rebounded quickly after the jilt and is acquiring Tink for half the price offered for Plaid. Q3: Recent Visa M&A activity suggests a shift in strategic efforts to build a better, safer mousetrap. The results may wind up being the same (global API dominance), albeit at a slower rate.
  • 6. 6 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 TrendWatch Summary: Industry Focus Areas – Q3 2021 Recent Activity Level Industry Impact Entrenched Player Impact Market and Industry Situation Focus Area Recent Movements Med New Payment Forms Perhaps something whiz-bang will emerge from Money 20/20. Otherwise, times are slow. Low ATM Restructuring The move to touchless cash access continues. High POS Volume Trend Huge volume across the board. Contactless and CNP showing unsustainable growth. Med Legal/Regulatory Issues New executive orders that target competitiveness will leak into payments. Low New Venture Growth There are some innovative newcomers out there; most are bootstrapping it. Med Earnings Announcements Big numbers showing up in banking as reserves taken last year are being released. High Industry Investments Most of the notorious M&A targeting BNPL. Med Payments Industry Security Cybercurrency exchanges appear to be ripe for picking. Positive Mixed Negative
  • 7. 7 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 TrendWatch Search Light: The New Players Industry Players to Watch In 2021 High-end Retailers Supply chain gaps will hurt all retailers; main street merchants may suffer most. OCC and CFPB White House is looking to spur competition in financial services. New banking licenses and opening banking may be the result. Internal Revenue Service Biden’s attempt to pay for infrastructure and lifeline support through IRS scrutiny of bank records may cause a huge cat fight. Real-time Payments Outliers FedNow is moving to market; RTP is already in place. Innovators should emerge soon to provide bankers with differentiating service options. The Healthcare Sector As (when) COVID wanes, demand for services foregone during lockdowns will accelerate. The Big Six Techs Congressional committees are pissed and want to know what big tech is doing with all the information it is harvesting. Antitrust tools may be applied to curb enthusiasm.
  • 8. 8 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 2021 Payments Industry YTD Yields Q3 price have firmed up since Q2 and in late valuations, Bitcoin is heading back toward higher altitudes. Our portfolio of payments equities continues to generate returns in excess of full market performance even after the occasional speed bump. Past returns are not predictive of future performance so consider these data points as merely that; interesting but not actionable. Still 50+ percent YoY yields ain’t bad. Yield Rank Alliance Data Systems $74.10 $100.94 $26.84 $1,597 36% 6 American Express 120.91 168.86 47.95 51,786 40% 4 Bill.com 136.50 273.22 136.72 9,652 100% 1 Discover Financial Services 90.53 124.88 34.35 16,519 38% 5 Euronet Worldwide 144.92 129.01 (15.91) (802) -11% 14 Fidelity National Information Services 141.46 121.98 (19.48) (3,717) -14% 15 Fiserv Inc. 113.86 108.82 (5.04) (786) -4% 12 Everi 13.81 24.73 10.92 842 79% 2 Jack Henry & Associates 161.99 164.79 2.80 235 2% 10 Mastercard Worldwide 356.94 349.78 (7.16) (927) -2% 11 MoneyGram International 5.47 8.10 2.63 152 48% 3 PayPal 234.20 263.59 29.39 35,856 13% 7 Square 217.64 239.75 22.11 7,230 10% 8 Western Union 21.94 20.47 (1.47) (836) -7% 13 Visa 218.73 224.17 5.44 4,602 2% 9 Bitcoin Closing Price $28,963.00 $47,419.30 $18,456.30 64% Industry Player 12/31/2020 9/30/2021 Price r Cap Value r 2021 Sources: Company releases; Morningstar.com; Bloomberg.com; and Coinbase. Note: 2021 YTD yield excludes dividends; based on 12/31/20 and 9/30/21 closing prices.
  • 9. 9 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Interesting News This Quarter Subject Source / Date Summary Google Finextra October When it was announced in late 2019, Google’s plan to launch Plex, a checking account powered by Citibank and others, made quite a stir. The bank says that 400 thousand people have signed up for the program and other sponsors have been lined up. All good news except that Plex isn’t going to happen; Google has pulled the plug, opting to provide “digital enablement” instead. So it goes with the Google payments hokey pokey. Mastercard Finextra September Card brand Mastercard has launched its “Installments” scheme to capture a share of the burgeoning BNPL market. Perennial MC supporters, Barclays, Fifth Third, FIS, Galileo, Huntington, and others are initial players. An API-powered system will support the respective offerings of these U.S. players as well as Qantas Loyalty and Latitude in Australia. Not to be outdone (or left behind), Visa is working the Canadian market hard with new BNPL arrangements cut with CIBC, Scotiabank, and Desjardins. Latecomers had better get going while the going is good. Chase Finextra September This story sounds familiar. JP Morgan is about to launch a digital-only bank in the UK to upend the UK banking market. “Project Dynamo” as it is tagged, has been under development for two years and if the UK effort works, the bank plans to offer the digital-only option to all its customers. This is not the first time Chase has efforted a new concept in financial services; perhaps success will come with this attempt. Walgreens Business Insider September Mega drug chain, Walgreens is launching a bank account dubbed “Scarlet.” InComm Payments is the enabling technology provider while MetaBank is holding the deposits. This neobank challenger comes with Walgreens Cash rewards on purchases, 2-day early deposit, and financial literacy tools. The drug retailer hopes to leverage is 9,000 store network to augment the digital-only characteristics of the Scarlet product. Walgreens claims that its mobile app is designed with older users in mind – simplified menus and larger font sizes. Hmmm. Do “older” Walgreens customers really need financial literacy tools or just bigger fonts? We’ll see. Target Payments Dive October So, let’s see how complicated we can make this, said only a few. Meanwhile, Target has added two BNPL resources to its payments options – Sezzle and Affirm. Both providers are top-drawer and deliver repayment options aplenty. So now consumers get to choose which fork in the road is best for them but must apply at the Sezzle or Affirm sites before venturing on. Seems a bit complex to us. PayPal Business Intelligence October Payments aggregator, PayPal, extends its network of payments access through agreements with two significant brands – United Airlines and American Express. Fliers on certain United flights may now use QR codes to make offline purchases while in-flight. American Express cardholders may now add their cards to PayPal from within the AMEX app with a mere button tap. Both conveniences may be successful in keeping PayPal users in touch with the platform while allowing its membership to take advantage of other functionality provided via United and American Express. Clever.
  • 10. 10 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Interesting News This Quarter Subject Source / Date Summary Pulse Debit Study Digital Transactions August Hands down, one of the best sources of close-in views of how payments are transforming is the annual Pulse Debit Study. The Pulse Network has been conducting the study throughout the past three decades and every issue provides interesting and actionable results. This year we learned that Card Not Present (CNP) volume surged a full 7 points over prior periods and that contactless transactions have doubled. And did you know that 92 percent of digital wallet transactions were Apple Pay? Great stuff! Bank of America Insider Intelligence August We know from experience (bad) that the travel industry is experiencing a resurgence. True, flights are fewer and packed like sardines in tin, but a lot of non-business travelers are moving about despite the inconvenience. So, it’s appropriate that Bank of America has christened a new credit card, the “Executive Explorer,” to lure business travelers back to the road and the bank. EE comes with $600 in lounge access credits and $100 in credit toward TSA Precheck-like services. The grab bag also includes the usual slew of insurance bennies like roadside, legal and emergency assistance. At $395 a year, EE doesn’t look like a bad deal. So long as companies allow us to travel again and that’s not a sure bet. KindTap MarketWatch October While the Federal government diddles its way to thinking about cannabis and how to protect the money it generates, another privately funded venture is moving ahead. KindTap operates a closed loop network that links consumers and cannabis merchants so that people can pay for the goods. KindTap is a unit of Kreditforce Ltd, a private merchant bank. Generally based on a debit card arrangement, KindTap has taken things further with a credit line scheme to get consumers over the end of pay period yearnings. Other players in the cannabis payments space include CanPay (where it all started), eMerchant Broker, Nature Pay, Sky High Moly, Greenleaf and others. Payments industry veteran, Cathy Corby Iannuzzelli heads up the firm. Citibank The Edge Markets July In what appears to be a cost-cutting move, Citibank is withdrawing is “Prestige” premium card from the market dominated by American Express and Chase. The bank has notified holders of the $495 per year travel-focused card that they may continue to use the product, but new applications have been suspended. Meanwhile, it is widely held that Wells Fargo is in the process of developing a new high-end card. Time will tell if Prestige is in a holding pattern or headed for oblivion. Apple Bloomberg July The latest non-technical launch by Apple is internally knowns as “Apple Pay Later,” a deferred payment scheme offered by the Silicon Valley darling in conjunction with Goldman Sachs. A short-term payments plan will be “Apple Pay in 4” while the zero-interest longer term option tied to Apple Card will be known as Apple Card Monthly Installments.” BNPL is an obvious road to take for Apple, given its product price points but Mr. Cook might consider some branding with a bit more pizzaz. “iDelay,” “iStretch,” or “iPayLater” perhaps?
  • 11. 11 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Interesting News This Quarter Subject Source / Date Summary Revolut CNBC September Revolut, the UK-based banking challenger presently valued at $33 billion, is entering the retail stock brokerage segment with commission pricing identical to Robinhood – zero. The startup has been granted a broker-dealer license by the SEC and has announced near-term intentions of a U.S./UK IPO. Meanwhile, an application for a full banking charter has been filed in California. Good luck with that. Facebook Insider Intelligence July Facebook Pay is expanding. The payments system will be migrating into the wild with its first stop being Shopify where the program will compete with the third party’s own pay button, Shop Pay. It’s hard to predict how Facebook Pay will do against established players like PayPal and Apple Pay but if the degree of user loyalty is a determining factor in its ultimate success, Zuck’s latest zig should do well. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Digital Transactions October Speaking of the CFPB and its new leader, Robit Chopra, things may be getting a bit tense for six technology companies soon. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, PayPal, and Square have been sent a series of orders to collect information on how they gather and use personal data. Chinese firms Alipay and WeChat Pay are also being targeted for examination. It’s way too early to suggest where this going but we foresee a forest-sized number of submissions and countless hours of testimony by big tech executives. Not likely that CFPB plans to liberalize its grasp on payments or banking anytime soon. Synctera Payments Dive September More on open banking. Looks like there’s a movement of coalescence among key industry players to level the playing field for bankers of all sizes and stripes. The latest action involves Synctera, a San Francisco-base backend services provider, and Mastercard and Marqeta. The new partnership is designed to allow community banks to let fintechs offer digital card services to both consumers and businesses. Regent Bank in Tulsa is the latest to sign up joining Coastal Community in Washington, Lineage Bank in Tennessee and Ellevest, a money manager based in NY. Community banks looking to expand their play in digital and fintech might consider the partnership as an option. Or not.
  • 12. 12 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 M&A and Alliance Activity Buyer/Investor Target Payments Emphasis Possible Strategy Investors like us Toast Restaurant technology Newer restaurant technology player, Toast, began trading on the NYSE in late September, a tribute to the company’s ability to persist during the pandemic. The firm’s “Toast Now” digital-only platform helped struggling restaurants transition to on-line orders, payments, and delivery scheduling. Despite its ability to pivot in troubled times, Toast racked up losses of $209 and $248 million in 2019 and 2020, respectively. More proof that investors like what they see on the horizon. Lone Pine Capital, G Squared. Vetamer, others AirWallex Global payments Below-the-radar online processor, AirWallex, quietly benefits from an oversubscribed Series D round of $200 million bringing its valuation to over $4 billion. The originate from, and pay to, processor grew by 150 percent in the first half of 2021 and processed over $20 billion in payments. Funds will be used to expand its presence in the U.S., UK, and EMEA. Another of those quietly dominating players to watch for when vendor shopping. Mastercard Aiia Open banking Danish firm, Aiia sells itself to Mastercard for an undisclosed amount. The company has links to 2,700 banks throughout Europe and processes one million A2A transactions per month. The move by MC puts it squarely in the open banking play in Europe when connected to the card brand’s earlier Finicity acquisition and majority ownership investment in Nets. Next stop, a banking license? PayPal Paidy Japanese BNPL Paidy is a BNPL player in Japan with six million registered users. The company dates back to 2014 and had recently raised $120 million in Series D funding. PayPal is paying $2.7 billion to enter the BNPL market in Japan. Paidy specializes in on-line purchase support. Another make-versus-buy decision that may have gone the correct way. Chase VW payments In-vehicle payments Coming to a VW near you: JPMorgan Chase. The bank has purchased a 75 percent interest in Volkswagen’s payment business, a unit launched in 2017. When fully functional, the system will facilitate in-vehicle purchases, fueling, and EV charging. Terms were undisclosed but we guess it cost Chase more than a Yugo. Valar Ventures, others Point Debit card scheme Startup debit card program offeror, Point, has raised $46.5 million in a Series B round led by Peter Thiel’s venture firm. Point targets millennials trying to avoid credit card usage and debt by offering a $49 alternative. The debit card provided is linked to a bank account and provides perk-based benefits like monthly subscriptions to Netflix and Spotify as well as rideshare and food delivery services. The company claims that the $49 annual fee generates $1,230 in yearly benefits. Interesting math but if it attracts the segment, so be it.
  • 13. 13 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 M&A and Alliance Activity Buyer/Investor Target Payments Emphasis Possible Strategy Zilch Nepfin BNPL Zilch is a UK-based BNPL player while Nepfin is a San Francisco-based debt funding platform. Industry pundits consider this move strategic because Nepfin gives Zilch a strong base from which to enter the U.S. market. Terms were not disclosed but Zilch has recently closed a $110 million round of funding. The strategy seems logical, but one must wonder just how many BNPL originators the U.S. market needs or can support? Returning Investors Chime Banking challenger Chime’s latest round of $750 million raised its valuation to $25 billion. For comparison sake, US Bank is buying Union Bank, a $60 billion (assets) commercial bank for $8 billion. Chime has users that number in the millions (13.1) while Union Bank has about a million depositors. Chime gets most of revenue from interchange while the old-line bank makes its money the old-fashioned way – through borrow/lend arbitrage. Time will tell if Chime is as valuable as the numbers guys think. NAB Citigroup AU business line Commercial bank National Australia Bank is paying $1.2 billion for Citibank’s retail banking portfolio plus its 800-member staff. In short, NAB is getting the whole kit and kaboodle – unsecured loans and branded and private label card schemes but not the underlying systems – so there’s a conversion waiting for the Aussies who currently bank with Citi. Approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, a tough bunch of regulators, is required before the deal closes. Fiserv BentoBox Digital storefronts Fiserv makes a move to strengthen its position in the restaurant vertical by acquiring BentoBox, a major player in online marketing, loyalty, and ordering. The space has seen significant growth with players like Toast and SpotOn gaining big chunks of the expanded demand for online ordering. Fiserv’s move also buoys its merchant POS business line. Good plan. Square Afterpay BNPL Once a bootstrapped payments organization with an odd-looking dongle attached to mobile phones for payments swipes, Square has jumped into the buy now, pay later fray with the $28 billion acquisition of Afterpay, the AU category killer. Square gains relationships with Afterpay’s 16 million consumers and 100k global merchants. Square will integrate the acquired BNPL resources into its Cash App ecosystem. Another make- versus-buy analysis and big, bold move.
  • 14. 14 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 M&A and Alliance Activity Buyer/Investor Target Payments Emphasis Possible Strategy Visa Currencycloud Currency exchange Visa takes another step in its journey to participate in global payments, no matter the place or currency denomination. The card network had earlier participated in an $80 million Series E funding for Currencycloud, a provider of APIs that allow banks and other financial services players to provide currency exchange services worldwide. Cross-border payments have always been painful for consumers and businesses and Visa hopes to gain loyalty and share by making it less so. Discover Sezzle BNPL Card brand Discover makes a $30 million investment in BNPL player Sezzle to provide buy now pay later services to users of its network. Sezzle has grown rapidly to 34,000 merchants and 2.6 million users. The share purchase transaction is based on a price of $6.58. SYL trades on the ASX and closed at $5.80 on October 25. Time will tell if the transaction’s monetary value matches the benefits gained by the cardholders.
  • 15. 15 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Curiosities We’ve found a few items in our payments review that we consider mildly amusing (despite of because of COVID circumstances). Subject Source / Date Summary USPS Business Insider October Unbeknownst to just about everyone, the U.S. Postal Service is incrementally entering the financial services industry through a group of four pilot programs (DC, Falls Church, Baltimore, Bronx) that provide check cashing, ATM, bill payment, wire transfer and related services. This, on the heels of USPS announcing that our first-class mail will soon start arriving a day or so later than previously. Not a fair trade, we muse. Amazon ZDNet September Amazon.com.au isn’t keen on accepting Visa cards any longer. The Australian marketplace will begin surcharging Visa payments 50 basis points starting on November 1. Concurrently, marketplace users will be paid AU$20 (~US$14) via a gift card when they add a different payment method to their account. Another game of hardball by the Ozzies. Citizens of Singapore have already been exposed to Amazon’s new Visa credit card pricing. Readers may recall that Walmart Canada took a different approach by banning Visa credit cards five years ago. Somewhere along the line one of the combatants blinked and things returned to normal. Let’s see what happens on November 1. Liquid Finextra August Japanese cryptocurrency exchange, Liquid is hacked and loses $90 million from some of its online wallets. This is Liquid’s second hack. Fortunately, the first invasion involved documents rather than currency. It’s a pity that Willie Sutton is no longer with us; he’d have a field day with “blockchain-secured” assets. (Google it.) Wells Fargo Bloomberg August Seems Wells Fargo was surprised by the pitchfork and torches response it got to its announcement last year that personal lines of credit with going the way of the dodo. It seems that WF overlooked the fact that reducing a customer’s available financing can harpoon credit scores. Inactive credit line users have until November to either use the lines or request that they keep them open. Nice try, WF.
  • 16. 16 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Curiosities Subject Source / Date Summary Branch banking Business Intelligence August Research house, Sykes, conducted a consumer survey of banking habits in May 2021 which reinforces the conflict bankers face over branching strategy. 55 percent of the respondents said they had visited a branch in person in the past year. 32 percent used the site to make a deposit while 20 percent opened accounts and 9 percent met with a banker about personal finances. Probably insufficient input to convince bankers bent on downsizing to reverse their plans but worth a moment of reflection perhaps. Open banking Insider Intelligence July Months ago, the White House started a campaign designed to urge the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to gear up its rulemaking engine to kickstart U.S. opening banking. Taking such action would enable challenger banks to gain access to consumer financial data stored with legacy banks when new customers open accounts. Alas, the CFPB continues to move at glacial speeds so we’re likely to wind up with a patchwork quilt of API players like Plaid and the newly formed Financial Data Exchange (FDX) creating their own rules. So it goes in U.S. banking innovation. Venmo NY Post July Worth a chuckle maybe. PayPal-owned app, Venmo, has suspended its practice of allowing users to see strangers’ transactions. True, there were always privacy concerns over the issue but watching folks sling payments among themselves made for good entertainment once COVID shut down most other forms of media watching. Seems that PayPal was “encouraged” to make the change after the Biden’s discovered that BuzzFeed News reporters were using the global feed feature to map the President’s close contacts and family members. We hear that the Bidens have since closed their Venmo accounts. Pity. Bitcoin ATM Seems not everyone in Silicon Valley is a high-earning bright light. Thieves stole a Bitcoin ATM from a Silicon Valley liquor store (yet another angle to consider at a later date) by using a rope and a truck to yank it out the front door. Probably would have been more rewarding to hack a BTC exchange site for millions rather than the measly $200 in the kiosk. Darwin at his finest.
  • 17. 17 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Useful Links for More Information This quarter we are providing URL links to give readers the option of reviewing some of the firms cited in this month’s issue. Company Role URL AirWallex Online processor https://www.airwallex.com/us Chime Another huge banking challenger https://www.chime.com KindTap Cannabis payment https://www.kindtap.com Point Cards for millennials https://www.point.app Revolut Huge UK banking challenger https://www.revolut.com/en-US Synctera Backend banking services https://synctera.com
  • 18. 18 Dorado Industries www.doradoindustries.com jmacallister@doradoindustries.com (310) 544-1316 Back in the Day! TrendWatch readers have been a generous group of executives. TW was not designed to promote products; nor was it used a vehicle for fund raising, except for twice. Ten years ago, readers contributed over $10,000 to Boy Scouts of America by sponsoring me in Over The Edge, a rappeling event staged at a 34-story Los Angeles hotel. Five years ago, TW raised $5,000 in college scholarship funds to support Students Run LA high school seniors. I truly enjoyed the descent down the Bonaventure Hotel glass outer skin and the chance to help BSA. The girls pictured below had just crossed the finish line at the Los Angeles Marathon. Few have run a marathon and these ladies did it in 5:19 hours. Pretty darn quick. Many thanks to all TW contributors!