The advance estimate of third quarter GDP growth provided conclusive evidence that the recession is over. However, the recovery is still expected to be gradual, fragile, and insufficient in the near term to generate much improvement in labor market conditions. Fiscal policy will provide further support into the early part of 2010, but will turn lower later next year, effectively acting as a drag on overall GDP growth. Hopefully, the private sector will be strengthening enough at that time to offset the drop-off in fiscal stimulus. If not, a second smaller stimulus package may be needed. However, amid concerns about the federal budget deficit, the political environment is likely to be resistant to the idea of further fiscal stimulus. That leaves the Fed to do the heavy lifting.