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1. China’s Rise, US Pivot
and Japan’s National
Security
July 18, 2014
Noboru Yamaguchi
Lieutenant General, JGSDF (Ret.)
National Defense Academy of Japan

2. The 13th Shangri-La Dialogue on May 30,2014
PM Abe’s Keynote Speech
Freedom, democracy, and the rule of
law, which undergirds these two, form
the Asia-Pacific’s rich basso continuo
that supports the melody played in a
bright and cheery key.
Prof. Taniguhi
Speech Writer

4. The 13th Shangri-La Dialogue May 30,2014
Lt General Wang Guanzhong, PLA

5. Cooperative v.s. Aggressive “Rise”
Robust “Rebalance” v.s. Isolationism
US Commitment RobustWeak to
Isolation
Peaceful/Cooperative
Assertive/Aggressive
China’sRise
US Commitment
Status Quo+ (G2?)
Japan: Rely on US?
US-China
Confrontation
Japan: Front Line?
China’s Hegemon
Japan: Tributary or
Confrontation?
Sino-Centric
Regional Order
Japan: Under Who?

6. The “Rise” of China: The Increasing
Military Expenditure
MoD, Defense of Japan 2012
U.S. & Chinese Military Expenditure (estimate)
30:1(1991) → 3-6:1 (2011) → 2-1:1 (2030)
18 times larger than that of 20 years ago
China US Japan
1991 11.9 290.9 (32.7) $ Bill
2011 197.9 717.4 (59.8) 〃

7. U.S.
Germany
Spain France
Japan
Source: IISS Miltiary Balance 1992
Military Expenditure in the 1980s to 1990s

8. Defense Expenditure & Economic Growth
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Japan’s Defense Expenditure (in Hundred Million Yen)
Yoshida Doctrine
○ Economy First
○ Light Arms
○ Rely on US
Korea
War
Bubble
Economy
Collapse
Rapid Growth

9. The Senkakus and the MST
Senkaku Islands: Uotsuri-shima, Kitakojima, Minami- Kojima
Japan’s
Admin
USG takes no position
on territorial disputes
Joint
Action
Armed
Attack
Article 5: Each Party recognizes that an armed attack against either Party in the
territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own
peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger…

10. February to May QDR, BMDR, NPR, NSS released
June 2010 Secretary Gates Speech
“geographically distributed, operationally resilient, and politically sustainable-
-”
November 2011 Secretary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century,”
Foreign Policy (November 2011).
“As the war in Iraq winds down and America begins to withdraw its forces
from Afghanistan, the United States stands at a pivot point.”
January 2012 New Defense Strategic Guidance “Sustaining U.S.
Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense”
“… rebalance towards the Asia Pacific region.”
April 2012 Secretary Clinton’s Speech a the Naval Academy
Rebalance is not an anti-China Policy
U.S. “Rebalance” towards the Asia Pacific
Obama Administration’s Policy

11. Deployed 15% of all U.S.
forces for 10 years
Afghanistan & Iraq
2005 208 k
2006 223 k
2007 209 k
2008 222 k
2009 190 k
2010 104 k
2011 102 k
2012 77 k
U.S. “Rebalance” towards the Asia Pacific:
Returning to Normalcy?

12. A2/AD(Anti-Access/Area-Denial)
First Island Chain
Second Island Chain
アクセス妨（A2）環境下での作戦
Japan’s Territorial
Defense
U.S. “Return” to Asia and
Japan’s Defense

13. Present and Future SDF Posture
Current Future
GSDF
Strength
159,000 159,000
(Including 8,000 Ready Reserve) (Including 8,000 Ready Reserve)
Major Units
9 Divisions (1 Rapid Deployment) 9 Divisions (1 Rapid Deployment)
6 Brigades 6 Brigades (4 Rapid Deployment)
1 Central Readiness Force 1 Airborne Brigade
1 Amphibious Brigade
5 SSM Regiments 5 SSM Regiments
8 SAM Regiments/Groups 7 SAM Regiments/Groups
Equipement 700 Tanks, 600 Guns 300 Tanks, 300 Guns
MSDF
Major Units
4 Flotilas (8 Division) 4 Flotilas (8 Division)
SS, MCM, Patrol Aircraft Units SS, MCM, Patrol Aircraft Units
Equipement
47 Destroyers 54 Destroyers
(Including 6 AEGIS Destroyers) (Including 6 AEGIS Destroyers)
16 Submarines 22 Submarines
179 Aircraft 179 Aircraft
ASDF
Major Units
12 Fighter Squadrons 13 Fighter Squadrons
6 SAM Groups 6 SAM Groups
Air Recon, Aerial Refueling, Air Transport
Squadron
Air Recon, Aerial Refueling, Air Transport
Squadron
Aircraft
340 Aircraft 360 Aircraft
(Including 260 Fighters) (Including 280 Fighters)

14. National Security Strategy : Proactive Contribution to Peace
NDPG 2012: Major Concept
 Dynamic Joint Defense Force
 Defense of Remote Islands:
Maritime/Air Superiority, Amphibious OPS
 Gray-Zone Cases
Revising G/L: GOJ & USG
 Legal Basis for National Security under Study
Defense of South
Western Waters
NSS, NDPG and Revision of the Guidelines
for Japan-US Defense