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Global Technology Market Update
1. Around the World In 60 Minutes
Global Technology
Market Update
Steve Koenig
Director, Industry Analysis
CEA
2. +
=
Digital World
TCG Yearly Forecasts
Retail CE sales tracking at more than 340,000 retail stores in 80 countries.
Tracks U.S. factory to dealers shipments
in more than 50 CE categories on a
monthly and weekly basis.
3. Analysis Considerations: Geographical, Financial
Mature
• North America
• Western Europe
• Developed APAC
Developing
•Central /Eastern Europe
•Latin America
•Emerging APAC
•Middle East/ Africa
• Exchange Rates (FX)
• Sales Tax
• Tech Subsidies
5. Global Tech Markets Back to Growth in 2013
2011
$1041bn
Smartphone, tablet
PC & emerging
market strength
offset sluggish
developed markets
2010
$922bn
Economic
recovery
+10%
2009
$836bn
Global recession
Global Tech Device Sales Revenue
Source: GfK Digital World
2012
$1034bn
$ value hit by
currency
weakness
outside
North America
2013 Fcst
2014 Fcst
$1068bn
$1055bn
Smartphone &
Smartphone &
Tablet growth
Tablet growth
offset decline
shifts further
in other products
to low end
+3%
+13%
-1%
-1%
6. Spending Growth in 2013
• Sales growth for Tablets and Smartphones
slowing, but remains robust compared to other
categories.
• LCD TV still growing in low single digits.
• Year-end push from next-gen game consoles.
• Some spending momentum in North America.
7. Reasons for Spending Decline in 2014
$1.055 Trillion (-1%)
Volumes
• Unit growth in tablets and smartphones reliant on lowend devices. ASPs coming down fast.
Product / Pricing Mix
• Lower-end devices (and ASPs) required to penetrate
lower consumer tiers of emerging markets.
Impact to Tech Spending
• Developing market spending growth curbed somewhat
• Not enough to offset spending declines in developed
markets and CE categories.
9. Developing Markets Revenue Growth
Momentum to Slow
2014 Fcst
2013
World
Western Europe
3%
-3%
North America
-6%
3%
Developed Asia
-11%
15%
2%
Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Growth
Source: GfK Digital World
1%
2%
6%
Middle East & Africa
C&E Europe/CIS
-1%
-8%
Emerging Asia
Latin America
-1%
2%
6%
0%
10. Global Tech Spending Finds Equilibrium
$549bn
Developing
Markets
$564bn
$553bn
$530bn
Growth
(2014 vs 2010)
60%
57%
55%
52%
50%
-3%
2010
Mature
Markets
$$593bn
2011
2012
2013 Est.
2014 Fcst.
41%
40%
43%
45%
48%
$373bn
$447m
$470bn
$514bn
Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Mix
Source: GfK Digital World
50%
$525bn
11. Emerging Asia Now Leads Tech Spending
$1041bn
$1034bn
52
68
72
67
89
95
76
78
246
282
286
121
107
66
84
86
74
131
181
126
$1055bn
67
64
76
221
$922bn
$1068bn
C&E Europe/CIS
Middle East & Africa
Latin America
Emerging Asia
99
Developed Asia
223
250
250
257
254
North America
200
212
194
189
177
2010
2011
2012
2013 Fcst
2014 Fcst
Western Europe
12. Has North America’s Share Peaked?
$922bn
$1041bn
$1034bn
$1068bn
$1055bn
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
7%
7%
8%
8%
9%
8%
8%
7%
7%
7%
Middle East & Africa
20%
21%
24%
26%
27%
Latin America
13%
12%
10%
14%
24%
C&E Europe/CIS
Emerging Asia
9%
Developed Asia
24%
24%
24%
24%
North America
22%
20%
19%
18%
17%
2010
2011
2012
2013 Fcst
2014 Fcst
Western Europe
14. Smartphone & Tablet Revenue Growth
offsetting contraction elsewhere, for now
Smartphones and Tablets
43%
Other Tech Devices
2009
2010
2011
Global Tech Device Sales Revenue
Source: GfK Digital World
2012
2013
Provisional
2014
Forecast
15. Tablets:
Lower-Priced Models Boosting Adoption in
Emerging Markets
2012
40%
31%
29%
Global Tablet PC Unit Sales Mix
Source: GfK Digital World
2014
33%
25%
42%
Other Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
North America
16. Smartphones: Emerging Markets Take The Lead
As Lower-Priced Devices Open Up The Mass Market
2011
52%
Source: GfK Digital World
30%
Developed
Markets
48%
Global Smartphone Unit Sales Mix
2014
Emerging
Markets
70%
17. Smartphones - Global ASP Trend
2010
$444
2013
$ 345
2014
$297
Global Smartphone Average Unsubsidized Selling Price in USD
Source: GfK Demand Projector Dec 2013
18. Spending (Revenue) on Smartphones & Tablets Slowing
As Unit Growth Shifts Further To Low-End
2014 Fcst
2013 Prov
TABLET PC
SMARTPHONE
LCD TV
LASER PRINTER & MFD
HOME AUDIO
INKJET CARTRIDGE
LASER CARTRIDGE
INKJET PRINTER & MFD
CAMCORDER
VIDEO GAMES CONSOLE
MONITOR
MOBILE PC
DESKTOP PC
DIGITAL STILL CAMERA
CAR NAVIGATION
DVD PLAYER/RECORDER inc HD & Blu-ray
PORTABLE MEDIA PLAYER
PLASMA TV
MOBILE PHONE
30%
27%
21%
-10%
-39%
Year on Year Change in Global Tech Device Sales Revenue ($)
Source: GfK Digital World
9%
6%
-44%
-34%
19. Spending Shift to Mobile Computing Devices Slowing
90%
Digital Still Camera
80%
Desk PC
70%
LCD TV
Feature Phone
60%
Mobile PC
50%
Tablet PC
40%
Smartphone
30%
79% of
Spending
20%
10%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013 Prov 2014 Fcst
Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Mix - Top Tier Products
Source: GfK Digital World
20. Global TV Sales Trends
• Avg. Screen Size Continues to Grow
• 3DTV growth tapering off. Top vendors not pressing
• Smart TV: popular as well in China
• New Tech Ushers in Next Wave of Innovation
– UHD: Expect global shipments of 8.7 million in 2014.
– Curved displays
– OLED (<500k units in 2014)
Source: GfK Boutique Research, CEA
21. Around the World In 60 Minutes
Steve Koenig
Director, Industry Analysis
CEA
@KoenigSteve
skoenig@CE.org
Editor's Notes
d
d
A year ago we forecast 2013 at +4%. Actual was +3% so pretty close.Unit growth for tablets and smartphones is declining but we still fcst strong double digit growth at global level in 2014. This growth is increasingly dependent on shifts towards developing markets and the low end, so average selling price is declining steeply, bringing 2014 fcst spending down to single digits This coupled with continued reduction in spending on other products like mobile PCs and Digital Cameras contributes to overall decline in spending in 2014
Consumer enthusiasm for technology
d
China dominates emerging market growth, and we forecast 2014 to show a marked slowing here
d
Smartphones and Tablets account for over 40% of global spending on tech devices
Lower price broadly equates to smaller screen size tablets (<8”). GfK data shows that in certain markets, for example UK, sale of larger size tablets (>8”) have actually peaked during 2013, and are now contracting. Generally speaking we forecast this to be repeated in most developed markets in 2014, where it has not already happened. Growth will therefore come from sales of smaller size tablets
As stated for slide 1, smartphones unit growth is slowing but we still fcst strong double digit growth at global level in 2014. This growth is increasingly dependent on shifts towards developing markets and the low end, so average selling price is declining steeply, bringing 2014 fcst spending down to single digits. The importance of the low end in driving emerging markets growth is reflected in the fact that average smartphone selling pricing is declining faster in emerging markets than in developed markets Against this backdrop, main growth drivers in 2014 will be China, India, and Brazil:- China: Chinese brands models are cost-effective and fast penetrating into the rural areas- India: smartphone growth is driven by local brands as they provide cost effective solutions through white-box smartphones manufactured in China; Sales in open channel account 95% of total market in India, local brands take advantage of their strength in distribution channelBrazil: Government providing tax breaks to promote locally produced smartphones (excludes flagship devices), international vendors ramping up local production facilities and focussing on new smartphone releasesDeveloped Markets: LTE is fcst to see major growth in China and W. Europe in 2014. In W. Europe: Although overall market is flattish, smartphones fcst to continue to grow due to continued featurephone replacement especially at low-end where smartphone penetration slowed partially in 2013. LTE push from operators and large screen size devices to keep the mid-to-high-end bouyant especially in Germany and Great BritainDifferent topic – Large screen size smartphones (>5”). We forecast explosive growth in China to >100m units in 2014, thanks to aggressive pricing from Chinese brands. We also predict explosive growth in India for similar reasons, albeit at a much smaller scale.
As stated for slide 1, unit growth for tablets and smartphones is declining but we still fcst strong double digit growth at global level in 2014. This growth is increasingly dependent on shifts towards developing markets and the low end, so average selling price is declining steeply, bringing 2014 fcst spending down to single digits Positive impact of late 2013 Videogames Console launches to be more visible in 2014 than 2013 Spending in 2013 on mobile PCs has fallen in 2013 for the second year running. We fcst this to continue further in 2014, though to a lesser extent. The decline in netbooks is the most dramatic, but notebook PC sales contracted in most parts of the world in 2013, with WEU, developed APAC, and China seeing the biggest declines. Cannibalisation by tablets is the major factor here, with these regions being the regions that are the most penetrated by tablets. We do forecast notebook PC sales to return to low single digit unit growth in 2014, driven by small screen size PCs and convertibles, but sales value will continue to decline as the move to smaller screen size devices will bring down average selling pricesWe do actually forecast LCD TV to return to unit growth in 2014 (+5%), due to continuing emerging market growth and stabilization in developed markets after 2 consecutive years of decline. Continuing ASP decline means spending will still be negative- Biggest growth drive will be Latin America (+17% y/y in 2014 and reach 37m) - World Cup is held in Brazil next year so we expect the demand to be strong especially for BrazilThere is however downside risk coming from a continuation of the depreciation of local currency against USD that we have seen since 20111. Depending how the Fed tapers off QE, currencies in important countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia may continue to depreciate against USD which could led to a higher retail ASP in emerging countries, with negative impact on end demand
Global spending on smartphones and tablets beginning to plateau as unit growth slows and average selling price declines due to shift to low end. 2010 = 28% for SPs, tabs, mobile PC