The present study tries to compare the growth experiences of the various states of the country using the values of Per Capita Net State Domestic Product at Constant Prices (NSDP) for the period from 1993-94 to 2016-17 (both years inclusive) by analyzing the trends in the Per-capita NSDP of the various states of the country and examining whether the states with lesser Per-capita NSDP at the beginning of the study period is able to catch up with the ones with higher Per-capita NSDP. The study has found that the Per Capita NSDP values of Indian states (belonging to various groups according to NSDP) have diverged over the years and the lesser performing states within the groups couldn’t increase their Per-capita NSDP value enough to converge with that of the best performing states in their groups exhibiting the unbalanced nature of economic growth across the various states of India during the study period.
2. Trends in the Per-Capita NSDP of Indian States in the Post Reform Period
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The reforms have tremendously increased both the aggregate GDP and per capita income
growth rates of the country. But due to historical, socio economic and geographical reasons, the
per capita incomes in various states have diverged over timer proving the neo-classical
convergence hypothesis wrong in India’s case (Dholoklia, 2009). For a vast country like India,
the balanced economic growth of all states and region is very crucial in the pursuit of the holistic
economic development of the country. So, the identification of the imbalances in the economic
growth of the various states and regions, if any of the country is very important in understanding
the economic situation, prospects and the requirements in the overall development of the
country.
The present study tries to compare the growth experiences of the various states of the
country using the values of Per Capita Net State Domestic Product at Constant Prices (NSDP)
for the period from 1993-94 to 2016-17 (both years inclusive). Per-Capita Income is one of the
better measures of Economic development (Thorn, 1968). The study uses Per-capita NSDP as
the measure for economic growth as it is more effective in the comparison of economic regions
with different geographical and population sizes. The study analysis the trends of Per-capita
NSDP of the various states of the country and examines whether the states with lesser Per-
capita NSDP at the beginning of the study period is able to catch up with the ones with higher
Per-capita NSDP.
The major objectives of the present study are:
• The comparative study of the trends, changes and movements in the Per-capita NSDP
values during the study.
• The study of convergences, divergences in the Per-capita NSDP or the lack of it among
various groups of Indian states studied during the study period. (The states are grouped
on the basis of their Per-capita NSDP in the year 1993-94 into High Per-capita NSDP,
Medium Per-capita NSDP and Low Per-capita NSDP groups for this analysis.)
2. METHODOLOGY OF STUDY
The present study consists of the analysis of the trends in the Per-Capita NSDP of Indian states
for the period of 23 years from 1993-94 to 2016-17 (both years inclusive) and the convergences,
divergences or the lack of it among various groups of Indian states during the study period. Per-
capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) at Factor Cost (Constant Prices) is used for the
analysis
The data for some states like Telengana, Mizoram and Tripura, data were not available for
some years at the beginning and end of the study period. In the case of Telengana, data was not
available for the period from 1993-94 to 2004-05 while for Mizoram data was not available for
the period from 1993-94 to 1999-00 and for Tripura data was not available for the 2016-17, the
last year of the study period. In such cases, the trend in their Per-Capita NSDP was constructed
using the available data. It is to be noted that no extrapolation or interpolation of data was done.
The NSDP per capita data was available for all the years but the data was available with
different base years. This data was available with the base 1993-94, 1999-00,2004-05 and 2011-
12. All these different bases are converted into the common base year 2011-2012.
The period 1993-94 to 2016-17 was chosen on the basis of availability of data and due to
its significance of being the period when the impact of the economic reforms of 1991 was
received by the Indian economy initiating its recovery from the economic crisis of 1991 (Joshi
and David, 2003).
3. Vishnu I Raj and N. Prasanna
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3. DATA SOURCES
Net State Domestic Product at Factor Cost (Constant Prices): RBI Handbook on Statistics on
Indian States 2018-19 published by RBI; Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Statistics and
Programme implementation, Government of India (See Appendix for Original data)
4. ANALYSIS OF DATA
4.1. Analysis of Convergence and Divergence Among Various Groups of States
This section analyses the trend lines of Per-Capita NSDP values of various Indian states over
the study period. For this, we classify states and examine the trajectory of the trend lines and
whether the trend lines of Per-Capita NSDP values of different states converge or diverge over
the study period. The convergences and divergence of the Per-capita NSDP values of the states
were studied using scatter plots.
For the purpose of study, we divide the states into three groups High Per-Capita NSDP
states, Medium Per-Capita NSDP states and Low Per-Capita NSDP states on the basis of their
Per capita NSDP values during 1993-94. For the states with no 1993-94 value, their position in
the values of first year in which they were available and general ranking positions were
considered. The first nine states in the HDI rankings were considered as High-HDI states while
the last nine states were considered as Low-HDI states. The division of states based on the Per-
Capita NSDP values is given below:
Table 1 Classification of Indian States Based on their Per-Capita NSDP values during 1993-94
High Per-Capita NSDP
States
Medium Per-Capita NSDP
States
Low Per-Capita NSDP
states
Goa Chhattisgarh Manipur
Punjab Uttarakhand Rajasthan
Haryana Gujarat Meghalaya
Arunachal Pradesh Nagaland Jharkhand
Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Madhya Pradesh
Karnataka Jammu and Kashmir West Bengal
Sikkim Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh
Kerala Assam Tripura
Himachal Pradesh Mizoram Bihar
Odisha
Telangana
4. Trends in the Per-Capita NSDP of Indian States in the Post Reform Period
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4.2. Trends in the Value of Per Capita NSDP values of the High-Per-Capita
NSDP States during the study period
Table 2 Per-Capita NSDP of the High-Per-Capita NSDP States during the study
Figure 1
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
Trends in the Value of Per Capita NSDP values of the High-Per-
Capita NSDP States during the study period
Goa Punjab Haryana
Arunachal Pradesh Maharashtra Karnataka
Sikkim Kerala Himachal Pradesh
State/
Year
Goa Punjab Haryana
Arunachal
Pradesh
Maharashtra Karnataka Sikkim Kerala
Himachal
Pradesh
1993-94 64162 49125 42505 40617 39452 37729 35371 35085 34141
1994-95 65785 49411 44497 38798 39371 38975 34845 37788 36827
1995-96 69474 50277 44293 43496 42813 40280 37139 38974 38180
1996-97 80157 52971 48306 39952 43600 43274 38503 40192 39651
1997-98 79805 53384 47531 40156 45093 45324 40158 40719 41755
1998-99 98285 55402 48832 40519 45981 50778 41737 43154 43950
1999-00 98312 57238 51057 41347 49407 52525 41568 45839 47941
1999-00 98312 57238 51057 41347 49407 52525 41568 45839 47941
2000-01 96891 56411 50319 40749 48692 51766 40967 45177 47248
2001-02 97755 56914 50768 41113 49127 52228 41333 45580 47669
2002-03 104381 60772 54209 43900 52457 55768 44135 48669 50901
2003-04 111515 64925 57914 46900 56042 59580 47151 51996 54380
2004-05 111671 65016 57995 46966 56120 59663 47217 52068 54456
2004-05 105513 62316 67477 57156 57119 59545 53969 59173 60471
2005-06 110826 64185 72195 57474 64392 64890 58656 64919 64928
2006-07 118247 69816 78940 59196 72168 70809 61254 69713 69260
2007-08 119382 74485 83601 64783 79381 78798 64144 75570 72793
2008-09 123938 77188 88460 68507 79452 83479 71569 79830 75555
2009-10 130671 80629 97814 72497 85885 82608 122889 86627 78866
2010-11 151214 84277 102706 73898 94341 90150 133731 91722 84650
2011-12 177386 87206 109670 75992 97015 91907 149034 96592 89222
2012-13 181256 90085 113821 72308 103062 95836 158584 101777 93804
2013-14 188358 93238 119522 77044 109398 101919 168897 107846 98816
2013-14 188358 93238 119522 77044 109398 101919 168897 107846 98816
2014-15 241081 95807 124302 87965 114750 105697 180675 112444 105241
2015-16 278601 100141 133591 85356 122588 116832 195066 119665 112723
2016-17 308823 105386 143211 86818 133141 124093 206178 128550 119387
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All the states belonging to the high Per capita NSDP group have shown an upward trend in
the values of their Per capita NSDP during the period studied. While most of the states in this
group showed a gradual increase in their per capita NSDP, two states Goa and Sikkim showed
a sharper increase in their annual Per-capita NSDP. Goa was the highest performing Indian state
in terms of Per-capita NSDP among all the Indian states. Only Sikkim’s Per-capita NSDP value
showed a definitive tendency of catching up with Goa and converging with Goa’s Per-capita
NSDP value.
Overall there was a tendency of divergence among the group of High Per-Capita NSDP
States regarding Per-capita NSDP indicating that the lesser performing states within the group
couldn’t increase their Per-capita NSDP value enough to converge with that of Goa. The Per-
capita NSDP of the states other than Goa also didn’t show a tendency of converging with each
other.
4.3. Trends in the Value of Per Capita NSDP values of the Medium Per-Capita
NSDP States during the study period
Table 3 Per-Capita NSDP of the Medium Per-Capita NSDP States during the study
Chhatti
sgarh
Uttarak
hand
Gujarat
Nagal
and
Tamil
Nadu
Jamm
u and
Kash
mir
Andh
ra
Prade
sh
Assa
m
Odish
a
Mizora
m
Telanga
na
1993-94 32440 31018 30954 30523 30477 29689 26988 26841 26067
1994-95 31974 33146 36449 31462 33802 30034 28061 26944 26908
1995-96 32118 32219 36810 32251 34533 30547 29372 27052 27706
1996-97 33011 33627 41730 33034 35568 31663 30984 27207 25412
1997-98 33785 33416 41136 34395 38321 32344 29808 27221 28654
1998-99 34097 33218 43401 30486 39451 33106 33276 26601 29128
1999-00 33199 32638 42020 29175 41408 33505 34372 27170 30571
1999-00 33199 32638 42020 29175 41408 33505 34372 27170 30571 35284
2000-01 32719 32166 41413 28754 40810 33021 33875 26777 30129 34774
2001-02 33011 32453 41782 29010 41173 33316 34177 27016 30397 35084
2002-03 35249 34653 44615 30977 43965 35574 36494 28847 32458 37462
2003-04 37658 37021 47664 33094 46969 38005 38988 30819 34676 40022
2004-05 37711 37073 47730 33140 47035 38058 39042 30862 34725 40078
2004-05 40168 47145 52004 35715 48958 37381 44478 30851 38310 40564 47958
2005-06 40105 52970 58632 38802 55576 38536 46568 31343 39491 42479 54858
2006-07 46707 58429 62637 41151 63784 40203 51054 32316 43832 43272 60047
2007-08 49626 67582 69020 43782 67283 42086 56914 33253 46970 46823 65369
2008-09 51784 73639 70947 45805 70343 44100 57798 34785 49842 52504 73552
2009-10 52353 84957 79852 47622 77184 45609 61129 37513 49588 57073 73055
2010-11 56254 92523 87396 51614 87140 47583 64609 38873 52023 65911 85180
2011-12 58790 100305 91977 54368 92980 49516 66062 39967 53269 62373 88958
2012-13 60790 105584 96075 56446 95043 51658 67928 40945 54617 64719 92540
2013-14 61409 112803 102589 58619 101559 54088 72254 43002 54109 67592 96039
2013-14 61409 112803 102589 58619 101559 54088 72254 43002 54109 67592 96039
2014-15 61146 118788 111370 60372 106189 50724 79174 44809 54211 85056 101424
2015-16 63791 126952 120683 60663 114581 59924 87217 50642 58165 91845 112267
2016-17 68321 132464 131853 63568 117806 62145 96374 52416 63674 101877 122684
6. Trends in the Per-Capita NSDP of Indian States in the Post Reform Period
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Figure 2
All the states in this group have shown an increasing trend with regard to Per-capita NSDP.
The trends of the Per-capita NSDP values of Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Telangana
have shown a tendency of convergence during the study period but the other states have not
been able to catch up with these better performing states. Assam was the least performing state
with respect tp Per-capita NSDP value in this group while Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat
have been the better performing states in the group.
4.4. Trends in the Value of Per Capita NSDP values of the Medium Per-Capita
NSDP States during the study period
Table 4 Per-Capita NSDP of the Medium Per-Capita NSDP States during the study
Manipur Rajasthan Meghalaya Jharkhand
Madhya
Pradesh
West
Bengal
Uttar
Pradesh
Tripur
a
Bihar
1993-94 24361 23503 22787 20514 20211 19970 19143 13896 9191
1994-95 23161 27122 22942 21047 20107 20969 19684 13469 10005
1995-96 23402 27434 24909 21238 20844 22146 19861 14330 8255
1996-97 25094 29890 25131 19645 21762 23292 21562 15666 10101
1997-98 26811 32699 26053 25252 22412 24853 20851 17145 9381
1998-99 26674 33281 28122 26974 23395 26053 20526 18572 9714
1999-00 29574 32524 29739 25179 25319 27549 21444 20008 9932
1999-00 29574 32524 29739 25179 25319 27549 21444 20008 9932
2000-01 29146 32054 29309 24815 24953 27151 21134 19719 9788
2001-02 29406 32340 29570 25037 25176 27393 21323 19895 9876
2002-03 31400 34532 31575 26734 26883 29250 22768 21243 10545
2003-04 33546 36893 33733 28561 28720 31249 24325 22695 11266
2004-05 33593 36944 33780 28601 28760 31292 24358 22727 11282
2004-05 31969 35603 36451 28057 24600 33581 22923 28094 11624
2005-06 33338 37290 38345 26384 25372 35300 23799 29584 11146
2006-07 33181 40928 40229 26416 27198 37660 25208 31738 12866
2007-08 34246 42041 40485 31825 27993 40172 26330 33424 13322
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Trends in the Value of Per Capita NSDP values of the Medium Per-Capita
NSDP States during the study period
Chhattisgarh Uttarakhand Gujarat Nagaland
Tamil Nadu Jammu and Kashmir Andhra Pradesh Assam
Odisha Mizoram Telangana
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2008-09 35958 44791 44575 30114 31004 41388 27813 36521 15125
2009-10 37594 46609 46286 32641 33389 44182 29012 39783 15621
2010-11 35699 52742 49622 36879 34579 46429 30778 42287 17758
2011-12 38213 56788 54066 38296 37073 47689 31886 45615 19314
2012-13 39869 59141 54815 40941 39614 50674 32985 50183 21087
2013-14 41441 61053 58681 43779 42778 53811 34044 54429 22776
2013-14 41441 61053 58681 43779 42778 53811 34044 54429 22776
2014-15 44101 64522 55936 48781 44336 54520 34583 58033 23223
2015-16 46389 68048 56039 44524 47646 57255 36923 64173 23987
2016-17 46756 72072 58826 49174 53047 61245 38934 25950
Figure 3
Though all the states in the group showed an upward trend with respect to Per-Capita NSDP,
there was no convergence of the NSDP values of the states in the group. Bihar was consistently
showing the lowest performance with respect to Per-Capita NSDP and was showing a
divergence from the Per-Capita NSDP values of other states in the group.
5. CONCLUSION
The Per Capita NSDP values of Indian states (belonging to various groups according to NSDP)
have diverged over the years and the lesser performing states within the groups couldn’t
increase their Per-capita NSDP value enough to converge with that of the best performing states
in their groups. This shows the unbalanced economic growth across the various states of India
during the study period.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Trends in the Value of Per Capita NSDP values of the Medium Per-Capita NSDP
States during the study period
Manipur Rajasthan Meghalaya
Jharkhand Madhya Pradesh West Bengal
Uttar Pradesh Tripura Bihar
8. Trends in the Per-Capita NSDP of Indian States in the Post Reform Period
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http://www.jstor.org/stable/41797130