The Covid Calendar is a living forward guidance paper on what plausibly may occur over the coming months in the USA by aligning various linked effects of the virus and potential and announced impacts/actions, rather than a specific prediction.

1. THE COVID CALENDAR
A living roadmap to chart the post-Coronavirus world
v. May 23, 2020 Gregory Adams
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

2. THE COVID CALENDAR
ANTICIPATED COVID CALENDAR - AS OF MAY 23, 2020
SEPMAY JUN JUL AUG OCT NOV DEC
Stay-at-
Home
Month
* mix of official and anticipated dates
TBD
Surprise
Debate 1?
Debate 2?
TBD
Surprise
TBD
Surprise
Dem
Convention
Rep
Convention
Phase 1
Curbside Retail, and
their Suppliers
Phase 2
Higher Risk
Workplaces Phase-in
Phase 3
END of STAY AT
HOME Order
Start of
School?
Xmas Season
Q2 EARNINGS
Georgia, Texas Updates
End of
School
VP
Selection
Unemployment
Hangover
Q2 Earnings
Anticipation
Q2 Earnings
Reality
Breather
Election
Effervescence,
The New
Normal
Election
Hangover
Recovery?
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decision
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
9/3 CRA
Deadline
ThanksgivingMemorial
Day
B - 48%
T - 40%
Obamagate?
China?
💥

3. THE COVID CALENDAR
MAY 23, 2020 - WHAT’S HAPPENED SINCE OUR LAST UPDATE?
▸ Key events or actions linked to predicted dates appear to be happening
▸ The warmer weather and unofficial opening of summer - Memorial Day - seems to be driving public space reopening and people outside
▸ “Obamagate” and increased blame being placed on China by the White House appear to be the latest Trump surprises

4. THE COVID CALENDAR
MAY 23, 2020 COVID CALENDAR KEY INSIGHTS
▸ We continue to foresee the USA has, for the most part, entered or will enter Phase 1 of the Opening Up America Again (OUAA) from May
2020, with a fairly swift move to Phase 2 come the beginning of July, and a prolonged but hyped shift into Phase 3 from September.
▸ The stock market has been anticipating this reopening for the past 5-6 weeks, with the overall market recovering 87% of its Covid losses
from its March 23rd levels. But P/E ratios are currently above those of similar 2019 levels and growing still. in spite of more than 1 in 3 S&P
500 companies having withdrawn EPS guidance for 2020. This continues to lead us to feel there possibility for a pullback mid-May to mid-
June prior to Q2 earnings anticipation
▸ Polls continue show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump despite actions taken to directly or indirectly manage the Covid-19 crisis. Given
Trump’s propensity to propel unanticipated actions to the front of his preferred reporting agenda we foresee the first of perhaps three
increasingly impactful ‘Trump Surprises’ coming in June to attempt to control the reopening narrative. “Obamagate” insinuations and
growing to pin blame on China might be the first seeds.
▸ As we are now nearing the 4th month of the Stay-at-Home authorization, while population has now become familiar with, if not overall
accepting, of measures imposed, social implications such as ending of the school year without activities, the change of weather and the
effect of reopening the first businesses and professional sports leagues will bolster the financial pressures of a prolonged shutdown to
shift sentiment from biological to economic priority. The need to commit within June to physical or virtual 2020-21 school year will be a
substantial early indicator.

5. THE COVID CALENDAR
COVID CALENDAR DIGEST MAY 23: SHANGHAI DISNEYLAND REOPENS
SHANGHAI DISNEYLAND, ONE OF 14 DISNEY THEME PARKS GLOBALLY,
REOPENED MAY 11, MAKING IT THE FIRST DISNEY PARK TO RESUME
OPERATIONS
▸ ACTIONS TAKEN TO REOPEN:
▸ Guests and employees must wear face masks (though Disney princesses and other
characters are exempt from the requirement).
▸ The park has also limited the number of daily visitors to one-third of the usual
80,000 capacity
▸ Guests have to have their temperatures taken before entering and flash their mobile
“health code,” a government-sponsored system showing citizens’ health status
based on big data. Only those who have a “green code,” meaning the person is
healthy, are allowed in.
▸ Some of the park’s hallmark events, such as parades, night fireworks, and theater
performances, have been suspended, in order to avoid too many people gathering.
https://qz.com/1855803/photos-shanghai-disneyland-reopens-as-coronavirus-eases/

6. THE COVID CALENDAR
ABOUT THE COVID CALENDAR
▸ Unlike past historical pandemics and economic downturns, the current Covid-19 emergency has
truly overtaken the entire 195 country global community, effectively focusing the full attention of
the world’s intelligentsia and population at large on both isolating themselves for fear of catching
the virus, and working quickly to come up with solutions to end the self-induced pause to everyday
life.
▸ The Covid Calendar is a living forward guidance paper on what plausibly may occur over the
coming months in the USA by aligning various linked effects of the virus and potential and
announced impacts/actions, rather than a specific prediction.
▸ The focus will be on non-medical data and their effects over time, noting there may be certain
exceptions such as a significant surge, quick treatment or perhaps a cure.
▸ The document will be updated every 10-14 days to reflect significant changes to the impact data.

7. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - COVID-19 OVERSHADOWS THE CALENDAR
▸ Overall Federal re-opening guidelines
(Opening Up America Again) three phases
▸ Meeting proposed criteria: symptoms, cases,
hospitals, testing & contact tracing,
healthcare systems capacity, plans)
▸ Flattening or Surging of Curve and growing
understanding of impact of the virus
▸ Governors tweaking and adapting their specific
re-opening protocols realtime
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

8. THE COVID CALENDAR
COVID-19 HOTSPOTS: USA MAY 23, 2020
▸ The numbers of new cases and deaths have started trending downward
▸ NY, NJ, IL, MA and CA are the top 5 states for deaths per 100,000 people ranging from 48-128
▸ Six states have an increasing case trend, down from nine last update
▸ Overall the US case and death rates are declining
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

9. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - STOCK MARKET PROLONGED VOLATILITY IS A BY-PRODUCT OF THE CALENDAR
A. May exuberance shakeout
B. June retrenchment with further unemployment
impacts, assessment of overall positive COVID
status, anticipation of Q2 earnings
C. July/August earnings sobriety, further overlay of
positive COVID status, effects from political
conventions
D. September volatility from election uncertainty vs.
reopening of economy
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

10. THE COVID CALENDAR
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - MAY 23, 2020
▸ April, unemployment rates were higher in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Nonfarm payroll
employment decreased in all 50 states and the District.
▸ Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent
▸ This is the highest rate and the largest over-the-month increase in history
▸ The unemployment rate of workers with a bachelors degree or higher is 8.4%, while it is 21% for people with
less than a High School diploma.
▸ The number of unemployed persons who reported being on temporary layoff increased about ten-fold to 18.1
million in April
https://data.bls.gov/home.htm © Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
https://www.bls.gov/charts/state-employment-and-
unemployment/state-unemployment-rates-map.htm#

11. THE COVID CALENDAR
STOCK MARKET PRICE TO EARNINGS RATIO COMPARISON - MAY 23, 2020
▸ P/E ratios are UP compared to one year ago, in spite of unclear forward earnings, suggesting values outpacing economic reality
▸ Ratios have also continue to grow since last update, potentially increasing overvalue risk
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

12. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - ELECTION 2020 DRIVES THE CALENDAR
A. President Trump desire to reopen prior to election
B. Democrats wanting to own the reopening process
C. Biden ability to display leadership, acceptability with VP
choice, debate performance
D. Trump / Biden gaff risk - expect 1-2 per month
E. September 3 Congressional Review deadline for Trump to
enact legislation (under the law, in order for a federal rule to
be considered in effect, it must have been submitted to
Congress for review for 60-days) to assure no immediate
repeal
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

13. THE COVID CALENDAR
2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLLS - MAY 11, 2020
▸ Biden continues to lead in major polls
▸ Fox News Poll shows Biden ahead 48% to 40%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

14. THE COVID CALENDAR
TRUMP SURPRISES: ‘CRAZY LIKE A FOX’
https://informedopinions.org/trumps-terrifying-communication-effectiveness/
BIDEN UKRAINE BOMSHELL
BIDEN SEXUAL
HARASSMENT REVEAL
FLASH STIMULUS
DISTRACTING FOREIGN
INCURSION
???
Possibilities
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams
▸ Trump’s propensity to disregard traditional protocol (withholding taxes, meet with Kim Jung-un) and shift
position (COVID-19 response, NRA) means just when things seem set expect the unexpected...
▸ he keeps it simple
▸ reinforce his key messages
▸ avoids the ‘data dump’
▸ addresses his audience head-on,
▸ sells the feeling, not the idea
▸ willingness to “tell it like it is”
▸ reinforce his brand
▸ owning the field.
▸ say things that are utterly memorable
▸ keeps listeners on their toes
▸ entertainment value of the resulting suspense

15. THE COVID CALENDAR
KEY IMPACTS - SOCIETY LIVES THE CALENDAR
A. Improving weather and hotter temperatures tests public &
private space closures
B. School closures without traditional group activities available
C. Holidays and the desire to enjoy accompanying traditions
D. August represents the 6th month of the Stay-at-Home order;
55% of Americans do not have 6 months of savings
E. Assumed (re)start of NBA, MLB, NFL. provides some pass times
F. School reopening plan, date - 2-3 months required to enable
once decided
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

16. THE COVID CALENDAR
COVID-19 OPINION: PUBLIC POLLS - MAY 23, 2020
▸ Voters in swing states are sharply divided along partisan lines over the coronavirus pandemic with just six months to go before Election Day, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll.
▸ Democrats and Republicans in the key electoral states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin disagree over whether there is likely to be a second wave of Covid-19
cases and who is to blame if there is.
▸ In a hypothetical match-up, Trump holds a narrow, 48%-46% lead over Biden among all the battleground voters surveyed, including a 41%-32% edge among independents.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/voters-divided-over-coronavirus-cnbcchange-research-poll-finds.html

17. THE COVID CALENDAR
COVID-19 OPINION: PUBLIC POLLS - MAY 11, 2020
▸ A sizable majority of Americans (68%) continue to say their greater concern is that state governments will lift coronavirus-related restrictions
on public activity too quickly. Fewer than half as many (31%) say their greater concern is that states will not lift restrictions quickly enough.
pewresearch.com © Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams

18. THE COVID CALENDAR
THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) ON FOOT TRAFFIC - MAY 9, 2020
▸ The coronavirus (COVID-19) global pandemic has brought massive, rapid, and ongoing changes to how people interact with their surroundings.
▸ After a massive drop in physical movement, citizens of major metropolises are slowly increasing their pace, albeit still well under 50% of norm
▸ Movement trends continue to increase since last update - Home Depot is the only major monitored brand ahead of last year
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-commerce-patterns
Here we show data from recent months on commercial activity (foot traffic trends) compared to the same time period from previous years to share insights into how the ongoing pandemic
is impacting the US economy and disrupting daily life.
© Copyright 2020 Gregory Adams