1. Energy shaping your government
How does energy effect the Political System in Norway?
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

2. Agenda
• Understanding of the political system (from the inside)
– The political situation
• Understanding of the political logic
– The reflexivity of politics
• How the Norwegian energy sector in different ways influence the political situation in
Norway?
• Conclusions
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

3. Every political strategy need to start with a deep understanding of
THE POLITICAL SYSTEM
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

4. The fundamental basics
• Always more need than
recourses
• Battle between interest for the
limited resources available
• Economics is the fundament
for politics
• The more money you get, the
more political you become
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

5. Income
Employer- and VAT
sosial security tax
Taxes on income and
Income from the
wealth
Petroleumum sector
Other income
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

6. Expenses
Transfers to municipalities Health sector
and counties
Payroll and
operating expenses to
the state
Payments to social
security
Other expenses
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

7. The challenge for Norwegian economy the next years
• Government debt is increasing
rapidly in Europe and USA
• Reductions in public spending
• Possibility for reduced
economic growth
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

8. Demographics and future income from the petroleum fund
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

9. Majority of the population has been outside the private sector
since 1980
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

10. Voting behavior in relation to private and public sector
50 47,1
44,6
45
Stat
40
Kommune
35
27,8
28 Privat
30
25 23,4
20
13,5 13,7
15 11,5 10,2 10,5
8,6 8,7
10 7,8
5,6 4,5
5,4 3,9 5,5 4,3 4,6 4,8
5
0
Ap FrP H KrF SP SV V
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

11. Polarization of Norwegian politics
Ap SV SP H KrF V FrP
64 11 11
30 10 2 40
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

12. ”We need to do something, this is something, therefore we must do it”
(Yes Primeminister, BBC)
THE REFLEXIVITY OF POLITICS
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

13. What is the reflexivity politics?
• Democratic politics has always been a reflection of the public majority's perception
• Media has in the information age the power to interpret the perception of reality, and trough that
the power to steer the policy development. Media replaces class, family and culture as reference
for interpretation.
• The reflexive effects between media, public and politics becomes deciding for the policy
development.
Public
Media
Politics
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

14. Politics is shaped in a room of reflexivity
• Politics is developed in a reflexive space – involving the
public, the economy and execution of authority:
– The public governs policy development
• Public focus on weak/wrongful execution of power results in
demands for a new policy – demands for action
• Politics becomes a reflection of how
economic, legal, bureaucratic and political power is executed and
interpreted among the public
• The higher the symbolic value, the stronger the
political repercussions
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

15. Sir Humphrey: Something must be done!
Sir Humphreys political
syllogism*:
1. Something must be done
2. This is something
3. Therefore we must do it
* syllogism (Greek), A type of logical argument first studied by Aristotle, in which one proposition (the conclusion) is
inferred from two others (the premises) of a certain form. In a valid syllogism, the proposition follows as a logical
conclusion from the premises.
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

16. Consequence:
– There are only 22 percent of the members of Parliament who think it is the
political system who sets the political agenda. 71 percent think it is the
journalists and media who control the public debate.
– As much as 67 percent of the representatives answers that the media has great
or some influence when they are going to decide in a political case.
– Four percent of the representatives think it is economic interests which often set
the agenda, one present think it is NGOs
(Survey by Respons April 2009)
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

17. Political messaging is about…
RELEVANCE
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

18. Has the last 40 years generated over 9000 billion to our GNP
4576 billion in income to the state since 1971.
Today sector stands for 28 percent of the yearly income to the state – 313
billion in 2011
It is invested over 3000 billion in this sector the last 40 years.
Over 200 000 persons in 424 of 430 communes is directly or indirectly
employed by the sector.
The value of the petroleumfund is now over 3000 billion
Remaining resources is calculated to 8,6 billion Sm3 o.e. or 2/3 of the total
resources on the Norwegian shelf. Representing values of over 4000 billion.
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

19. Strategic communications: Define the debate
What separates good communicators from the mediocre
is a conscious awareness of their own linguistic universe
which enables them to define debates
Cognitive linguistics seeks to understand the nature of
language, how we use it, and why we are convinced, by
exploring the unconscious.
“Framing is about getting a language that fits your
worldview. It is not just language. The ideas are
primary – and the language carries those ideas, evokes
those ideas.” (George Lakoff )
George Lakoff
Professor i lingvistikk UC
Berkeley
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

20. Values: How do I
feel about it?
Subjective advantages:
What does this mean
for me?
Functional meaning: How does it
work?
Function: What is it?
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

21. How the Norwegian energy sector is influencing Norwegian politics
ENERGY AND POLITICS
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

22. E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

23. First question:
Name one big political issue the
Norwegian petroleum sector has lost
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

24. E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

25. The ethos of the Energy sector
”We finance the welfare state”
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

26. The pathos of the Energy sector
”We have created the welfare you enjoy in the best country to live in”
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

27. We deliver energy to the world
E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S